Jimih
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But going by the trends, the last 3 COAS were former VCOAS and also going by previous 10 COAS appointments, 6 of them were former VCOAS.Too much of specualtion is happening here thanks to article which can't pin point so called sources which told him why these two Gen are not elevated to Coas . Gen YKJ was never in the race for COAS .
Lets for a change think the ill fated Dec 8th Air accident not happened . Gen BiRa would have completed his term in Dec 2022 in which case current Coas would have retired as per his term in April which still means Gen YKJ would have also superannuated as per record on Jan 31st . So which makes it clear even with all sudden changes Gen YKJ was not at all in the race for Coas . Its mostly Goc EC who would be the next Coas and i still have my doubts Gen MN will get elevation to CDS .
The average Service Year gap between the Incumbent and Appointee COAS for the last 8 appointments is approx 3 years.
And yes General Joshi is not going to be COAS and he got retired yesterday.