Sir,is it possible for HAL to manufacture more than 50 LCA per year with proper infrastructure?i mean is it physically possible to mass produce a 4th generation aircraft like Tejas by HAL?
Look at the total number of aircraft we plan to build. By 2022 we will be building around 16-20 Rafales a year, 16 LCAs a year and that will be followed by around ~20 FGFA a year. That's a total production capacity of over 50 aircraft a year. This must be similar to the numbers Russia and China are building. And around 35-40/year are more sophisticated than the LCAs.
The cost for production will be justified depending on the numbers built. Building an assembly line costs a lot of money, expanding it also costs a lot of money. If we build 500 LCAs at 50/year, then it is possible. The same as how the Americans plan on producing 3000 F-35s at 300+/year.
There is no requirement for 500+ LCAs. We currently have plans for 178 LCAs of both Mk1 and Mk2. Follow on orders could be 50% of that number, depending on how the jet performs and what the threat perception is. That's 8-12 squadrons between IAF and IN. So, the assembly line will be built for such numbers.
I think the justifiable numbers for production are 10% per year of the first contracted numbers.
140 MKI, we are building at 14/year. 178 LCAs, we plan to build 16/year. And so on.