CAATSA issue is being brought up by almost every American deligation coming to India makes me think maybe Biden admin is not in mood to give any waiver to India. America has already found alternative to QUAD in AUKUS. Does India factor into American plan of Asia is yet to be seen.
If sanctions are slapped on India what will India do in response? I hope babus have made a solid contingency plan.
The funny thing in this mess is, Pakistan who has helped terrorists agaist America is getting away without any concecqunces and America's "friend" India is being threatened with sanctions.
It is a well-known fact that Biden-Harris hate the nationalist government in India. They dislike anything that the global Liberal elites don't want in their way of mercantile domination. Therefore, they are trying to intimidate us.
If our side is strong, we can play hardball in either scenario.
Scenario 1: Sanctions are enforced and the US + its allies are split (the most likely scenario)
This is the most likely situation, as there are several strong lobbies in the US that would be up in arms if sanctions are enacted against a fellow ally.
Let's see:
1) QUAD formalization
2) Signing of BECA and LSA
3) Declaring India as a major non-NATO ally
4) Designating our satellites to communicate sensitive data with US military satellites at par with that of other allies, etc.
5) Position as the second-largest military buyer after Saudi Arabia with a buttload of defence opportunities in the future
6) The strategic understanding that India is a force that would make sense as an ally than as an unconcerned adversary
All this means a lot of water has gone under the INDO-US bridge.
Enacting CAATSA on us will result in 3 things here:
i) Indo-US + AIPAC swings into action to get CAATSA removed ASAP
The Indo-US lobby will work with AIPAC and associated politicians to get this removed ASAP. The combined support of the powerful Indian-American lobby + the Jewish lobby (that has robust political ties with their indian counterparts in the States) will exert a very strong pressure on Biden-Harris to roll this back.
ii) US Arms companies themselves become lobbyists for India
Companies like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon & General Dynamics will wipe the floor with Biden's face - causing a massive political fallout. Sanctioning India means that LM, Boeing, Raytheon can kiss the world's 3rd largest defence market goodbye forever as this is the last decade in which they will ever get a chance to make money with Indian imports/ JV plans.
The Republicans along with their strong arms industry lobby that forecasts billions of worth of sales in the future with India and co-development, will be baying for Biden-Harris' Liberal blood, will highlight Biden's soft corner for Pakistan and China and will make their political life hell.
They may be Americans but in USA, the biggest God for their people is the green polymer note with dead US presidents on it from their history.
iii) US's fallout with its own allies, reaffirming their biggest recent fears
The entire US Alliance is currently on a shaky ground. European Union is backing France after the Franco-Australian diplomatic debacle. The very fact that Macron immediately called PM Modi ji right after calling back the ambassadors to USA and Australia means a big, big development for the Indo-Pacific. France has territories in the Pacific and the region is a personal issue for them. They have had ties with us long, long before USA established formal strategic partnership with us.
The beneficiary of CAATSA would be France here who would get all the following joint-development opportunities and will do its nut to convince the European Union of the same.
Fun fact, 3 years ago, France started
decoupling its strategic defence platforms with American technology as the French defence sector complained to Macron about US export controls impacting their own defence sales.
Now put these points along with the fact that France is trying to navigate EU away from NATO and have an EU Military Alliance, that's being debated right now in the European Parliament. Given that Merkel is no longer in power and Germany, the American pet in the EU is undergoing a political transition with no strong voice, France gets to make whatever impression it wants on the wider EU parliament. Sanctioning a major non-NATO ally will simply re-affirm the EU fears that the US is no longer a reliable partner.
Currently, Poland, Germany, Portugal and the 3 Baltic states are the biggest proponents of retaining strong American involvement in the European defense over an EU Military Alliance - due to their historic distrust of European powers that abandoned them.
The recent American actions will only strengthen French proposal in the EU. It may not cause a collapse of NATO, but it will definitely cause enough visible political disturbance that would reaffirm that the Anglosphere is only looking out for itself and doesn't give a damn about other allies.
From a NATO perspective it will be a disaster, especially after Putin's succeeding in weakening the NATO from within by pulling Turkey in its court.
Scenario 2: Entire Anglosphere-led alliance accepts US decisions and denounces India
If Biden-Harris get the support/silence from its fellow allies, then CAATSA gives us the full right to renege on all their agreements that we signed with them including their IPRs. We get to do whatever we like with the American assets, including putting them on war footing to be copied at our labs.
There is a reason why India's operational defence budget is higher than capital expenditure every year; our policy planners actively consider the spectre of a full-scale sanctions scenario, especially after Tejas debacle with Boeing. That means we have sufficient spares inventory to ensure current inventory.
This also means that India would mobilize its network around the world to hunt for stopgap measures while it gives our scientists and engineers time to reverse engineer essential parts to be made locally to keep the assets operational.
Our engineers and scientists are pretty smart; it just that the babus sitting on top of them are corrupt, to delay the projects. And when the State back them with full green-lights on, they can do a lot in a limited span of time.