India US Relations

no smoking

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 14, 2009
Messages
4,815
Likes
1,991
Country flag
But if that happens, we'd have more chips on the negotiation table. Even though less likely, China itself might want to simmer down tensions with us temporarily in exchange for a stable Subcontinent so that they can focus on US.
Why? One Road One Belt has been the core of Chinese national strategy for 10 years and it will be for next few decades. With an India's dominated Indian Ocean and subcontinent site in the middle, their access to Europe/Africa/Mideast market & natural resources will be living under India's mercy. Not only them, but the whole Asia will have the same problem.

The Americans will have their issues too: once Pakistan is down, who is going to stop India from controlling middle east and half Africa? The challenge that India will then bring to them will be much bigger than China.

Basically, you can treat India's geographic location in world island as the same as Germany in Europe.

So, the most possible result will be: US and China (maybe plus Europe) will put their dispute aside, and come together to fight India.
 

Varoon2

Regular Member
Joined
Mar 22, 2021
Messages
493
Likes
1,716
Country flag
With an India's dominated Indian Ocean and subcontinent site in the middle, their access to Europe/Africa/Mideast market & natural resources will be living under India's mercy. Not only them, but the whole Asia will have the same problem.

The Americans will have their issues too: once Pakistan is down, who is going to stop India from controlling middle east and half Africa? The challenge that India will then bring to them will be much bigger than China.

So, the most possible result will be: US and China (maybe plus Europe) will put their dispute aside, and come together to fight India.
That's because both these countries have entities( government, think tanks, media and individuals) who project their own motives and goals onto India! They are really holding up a mirror to themselves, not to India. It's not that they truly believe India is trying to 'control' the West Asian oil resources; it's more that increased Indian economic and political influence in the West Asia region will reduce the chance of themselves exerting overwhelming political and economic coercive power and hence, profit. It's much more about this, than any putative Indian 'take over' of any region. And deep down, they know it. If such a Sino-US alliance to blunt India, comes up, I personally have faith that there will be more than a few Americans who will oppose it, sympathise with India, and pour scorn on the idea of 'containing' India. JMT.
 

GaudaNaresh

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 8, 2022
Messages
1,563
Likes
5,061
Country flag
Why? One Road One Belt has been the core of Chinese national strategy for 10 years and it will be for next few decades. With an India's dominated Indian Ocean and subcontinent site in the middle, their access to Europe/Africa/Mideast market & natural resources will be living under India's mercy. Not only them, but the whole Asia will have the same problem.

The Americans will have their issues too: once Pakistan is down, who is going to stop India from controlling middle east and half Africa? The challenge that India will then bring to them will be much bigger than China.

Basically, you can treat India's geographic location in world island as the same as Germany in Europe.

So, the most possible result will be: US and China (maybe plus Europe) will put their dispute aside, and come together to fight India.
The incentive for them to normalise relationship with us, is the same incentive for US to not mess us up too much : competition between US and China. Chinese trade is already at the mercy of the US and always has been. People here think that China made an imaginary enemy of the US in the 1940s (that became real with time) but the way the chinese see it, at the eve of them forming their nation post civil war, they look to the sea and see US military presence in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan & Phillipines : it sure looks like a noose around the neck of China, a noose USA can tighten at any moment. The noose India will put around China's neck is much, much further away from the noose that is directly on their seaboard.
 

AnantS

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 10, 2013
Messages
3,243
Likes
6,844
Country flag
That's because both these countries have entities( government, think tanks, media and individuals) who project their own motives and goals onto India! They are really holding up a mirror to themselves, not to India. It's not that they truly believe India is trying to 'control' the West Asian oil resources; it's more that increased Indian economic and political influence in the West Asia region will reduce the chance of themselves exerting overwhelming political and economic coercive power and hence, profit. It's much more about this, than any putative Indian 'take over' of any region. And deep down, they know it. If such a Sino-US alliance to blunt India, comes up, I personally have faith that there will be more than a few Americans who will oppose it, sympathise with India, and pour scorn on the idea of 'containing' India. JMT.
Well all the cold war China US, Pak bedfellas. Kya ukhaad lia? China's OBOR is exactly not generating goodwill in countries. Just like in Pakistani CPEC - China shall face resistance. US likes ally cut to size.
US aim is from G7 to G2 to G1:D
 

karn

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
2,154
Likes
9,068
Country flag
Why? One Road One Belt has been the core of Chinese national strategy for 10 years and it will be for next few decades. With an India's dominated Indian Ocean and subcontinent site in the middle, their access to Europe/Africa/Mideast market & natural resources will be living under India's mercy. Not only them, but the whole Asia will have the same problem.
So much projection lol.
With an India's dominated Indian Ocean and subcontinent site in the middle, their access to Europe/Africa/Mideast market & natural resources will be living under India's mercy. Not only them, but the whole Asia will have the same problem.
Replace India with China and Indian ocean with south China sea and we have todays scenario.

The Americans will have their issues too: once Pakistan is down, who is going to stop India from controlling middle east and half Africa? The challenge that India will then bring to them will be much bigger than China.
Again ... replace pakistan with Taiwan and middle east and half africa with Australia and ASEAN.. and you have todays scenario.
So, the most possible result will be: US and China (maybe plus Europe) will put their dispute aside, and come together to fight India.
And here swap India with china .. and taadaa .

Is it such a mystery that the americans are able to find allies and partners against china among countries that do not like american foreign policy?

FYI -- BRI funding has been negative for the last 2 years. Looks like the CCP is focusing on recovering losses rather than any grand strategy.
 
Last edited:

Blademaster

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2009
Messages
4,329
Likes
13,407
KSA's security is still completely in American hands. 90%+ assets in the Saudi military arsenal are American-supplied.

All the CIA has to do is instigate someone else from another tribe to "rise up" against MBS. If they aren't doing it, this simply means that the US is not seeing its effect on their economy yet. This is a country that flattens other countries for a mere whim. Do you really think they can't engineer a firestorm against Saudis?

So far, £ and € are getting pounded from all directions and the USD is rising due to Federal Reserve rate hikes + geopolitical circumstances. However, they can't keep hiking the rates as it would send US economic growth into a tailspin in the medium run.

Once £ and € stabilize, the effect of increased non-$ trade start showing. That's when the real game will start.
There is a limit to CIA's power. They lost China to the communists and Iran to the mullahs. Don't overexaggerate their powers and reach.
 

no smoking

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 14, 2009
Messages
4,815
Likes
1,991
Country flag
The incentive for them to normalise relationship with us, is the same incentive for US to not mess us up too much : competition between US and China.
Well, this competition is under one condition: both US and China see each other as the biggest threat. If India rises up, the whole picture will change.

Chinese trade is already at the mercy of the US and always has been.
People here think that China made an imaginary enemy of the US in the 1940s (that became real with time) but the way the chinese see it, at the eve of them forming their nation post civil war, they look to the sea and see US military presence in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan & Phillipines : it sure looks like a noose around the neck of China, a noose USA can tighten at any moment.The noose India will put around China's neck is much, much further away from the noose that is directly on their seaboard.
That is the problem: US can't really cut Chinese trade without declaring a war. If India dominates SA, she doesn't need a war to threat Chinese trade and raw material supplies.
 

GaudaNaresh

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 8, 2022
Messages
1,563
Likes
5,061
Country flag
Well, this competition is under one condition: both US and China see each other as the biggest threat. If India rises up, the whole picture will change.
As long as Chinese GDP and military might is greater than Indias or Japan-SoKo are US vassals, China will be a bigger threat to US dominance than India.
As long as US has military presence in the first island ring, USA will be a bigger threat to Chinese dominance than India.

That is the problem: US can't really cut Chinese trade without declaring a war. If India dominates SA, she doesn't need a war to threat Chinese trade and raw material supplies.
Not relevant to the power dynamics - that Chinese trade is at US's mercy, not vice versa. IOR route to Chinese heartland is replaceable, if expensive. First island chain route to chinese heartland is irreplaceable.
 

no smoking

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 14, 2009
Messages
4,815
Likes
1,991
Country flag
That's because both these countries have entities( government, think tanks, media and individuals) who project their own motives and goals onto India! They are really holding up a mirror to themselves, not to India. It's not that they truly believe India is trying to 'control' the West Asian oil resources; it's more that increased Indian economic and political influence in the West Asia region will reduce the chance of themselves exerting overwhelming political and economic coercive power and hence, profit. It's much more about this, than any putative Indian 'take over' of any region. And deep down, they know it. If such a Sino-US alliance to blunt India, comes up, I personally have faith that there will be more than a few Americans who will oppose it, sympathise with India, and pour scorn on the idea of 'containing' India. JMT.
Well, as long as India doesn't find some alien technologies to push her energy consumption to a level that is far beyond the available technologies on this planet, she is still going to need huge amount of oil, gas, and other raw material. Considering India's population size, the quantity demanded won't be less than Chinese, if not more. Currently, the largest part of these oil, gas and resources are flowing towards US, Europe and even China at a relatively cheap price. That is what is really about INFLUENCE. What make you think that India will be ok with current energy allocation? That is what US and China are competing for.
 

Blademaster

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2009
Messages
4,329
Likes
13,407
All the more reason to accelerate our nuclear program into the thorium stage, mass produce solar panels and wind turbines and batteries to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels.

Nuclear fusion is a pipe dream unless somebody can come up with a material that can safely hold hot plasma in excess of 100 million degrees Fahrenheit at more than 10k PSI without melting or bursting and produces at least 75% more energy than it takes in.
 

Rassil Krishnan

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 16, 2019
Messages
1,673
Likes
6,677
Country flag
And I am telling you that the ban only works when the alternative so created actually takes off, which will only happen when its an open source alternative that has been designed not just for India but the whole world and as a result has takers across the world.
i never use twitter nowadays and only use koo.
 

Okabe Rintarou

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 23, 2018
Messages
2,336
Likes
11,942
Country flag
i never use twitter nowadays and only use koo.
Twitter and YouTube are completely different. And I already explained in that comment about echo chambers. You are not only using just koo. You are also using DFI, which gets a lot of info from twitter. So currently you aren't in an echo chamber. Everything else I've already stated, we should go with the approach that can actually work, instead of doubling down on the China-like approach.
 

Tshering22

Sikkimese Saber
Senior Member
Joined
Aug 20, 2010
Messages
6,422
Likes
13,194
Country flag
There is a limit to CIA's power. They lost China to the communists and Iran to the mullahs. Don't overexaggerate their powers and reach.
China was never under American power. They were always too complicated for the Americans to infiltrate. That too when the Soviets were putting their full weight behind Mao.

Saudi has no one, and I mean no one, to defend them in facing off against the US. The US simply has to step away from the Middle East. MBS knows that neither Xi nor Putin would put their boots on the ground to protect the Al Sauds the way Americans do. He's playing both sides but will remain within limits.

The last thing he needs is to make a slip that leads to civil war in Saudi Arabia, handing his country on a platter to Iran while their influence to Erdogan.
 

Tshering22

Sikkimese Saber
Senior Member
Joined
Aug 20, 2010
Messages
6,422
Likes
13,194
Country flag
OH HELL NAHHH
Small price to pay for the benefits they get moving oil from here to there. They can always trade in ₹ or some other currency, making them bypass all the sanctions. Given the favourable rate that the Chinese are giving for trading in ¥, these folks won't mind the sanctions. I hear that AED is also in vogue in non $ markets.
 

Latest Replies

Global Defence

New threads

Articles

Top