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Along with diehard members of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), policymakers in India mourned the 1992 demise of the USSR. Moscow had been an ally of Delhi since the early 1960s, ensuring through its veto that the US, the UK and China could not use the UN Security Council to embarrass India on Kashmir. The Indian military was heavily reliant on Soviet supplies, especially for the air force, while steel plants,machine tool works and numerous other projects came up in India because of technical and financial help from the Soviet Union. In 1971,when US President Richard Nixon (an India-hater with India-baiter Henry Kissinger by his elbow) sent the nuclear-equipped Seventh Fleet to the Bay of Bengal in an attempt to scare India away from ensuring success to the Mukti Bahini in what is now Bangla Desh, Premier Alexei Kosygin ordered the Soviet Sixth Fleet into the same waters,in the process turning into jelly Nixon’s resolve to protect the unity of Pakistan,the country that was the facilitator in Washington’s opening to China
India’s Soviet tilt was the responsibility less of itself than of the Western powers. The US relied on the UK to decipher India, and London was still in the Churchillian afterglow of backing the “courageous Moslems” against the “shifty Hindoos”. It was no secret that the UK wanted Pakistan as a counterweight to an “unreliable” India, and as a bridge to the immense Muslim-majority lands to Pakistan’s west. Hence,beginning in the 1950s, the UK (and its faithful follower the US) applied incessant pressure on India to surrender the Muslim-majority state of Kashmir to Pakistan. In 1962,after the debacle caused by the Chinese advance into India’s north-east, Delhi was willing to become an ally of the US, at a time when ties with Moscow were still tentative. The initiative was killed by the crude badgering of the UK’s Duncan Sandys and his American emulators . “Give up Kashmir or else” was the message from Sandys,who -poor man - had clearly not been told that India had become an independent country in 1947. India chose the “Or else”. Again,with the collapse of the USSR, Delhi looked towards Washington to replace Moscow as an ally. The Clinton White House acted the way Sandys had three decades earlier,by demanding concessions on Kashmir that would in effect have extinguished Indian control over the state. Not surprisingly,the pressure was rebuffed. It took a decade more,and a new US President (George W Bush) before the US finally woke up to India’s potential and dealt with it as the ally of choice in the region
And what of the former ally,Moscow? As usual,the establishment in Delhi was taken unawares by events. Indeed,India was the only country in the world to officially welcome the 1991 coup against Mikhail Gorbachev, an action that did not endear Delhi to either Gorbachev or his successor Boris Yeltsin. As a consequence of India’s stubbornly pro-CPSU line, relations between itself and Russia under Boris Yeltsin were cool. Moscow was charmed by the West,and disillusionment had not yet set in. Hence, military supplies became expensive and irregular, and joint projects fell to near-zero levels.This despite India being the only country in the world that committed to repaying Moscow in old roubles,rather than the worthless currency the once-respected medium of exchange had become. The cost to an impoverished India of this generous gesture (masterminded by no less a personage than Manmohan Singh,then Union Finance Minister) was in excess of US$ 12 billion,but it was judged worthwhile in order to keep the relationship strong.and ensure steady supplies of military equipment, propositions that subsequently turned out to be inaccurate. Under Yeltsin, ties soured,even while the Clinton White House ignored the prospect of India as an ally. Indeed,those days,the US State and Commerce Departments used to warn businesspersons against investing in India,which - they claimed - was “one of the most dangerous places on earth”
It was only after the former KGB took control of Russia in 1999 from the numerous mafias backed by Yeltsin that relations with India began to warm up. Vladimir Putin,the new boss, was,unlike his predecessor, no admirer of the West. He saw his objective as being the re-emergence of Russia as a superpower, balancing the West rather than serving as an auxiliary to it. Looking at the map of Asia,Putin accepted the view of his former KGB colleagues that it would be in Moscow’s interest to renew the now lapsed alliance with India. Once again,from around 2003, military supplies began to flow into India on huge transport aircraft,and the quality of the equipment supplied rose considerably (along with the price tag). However, the desperate need of Russia for cash has meant that a substantial amount of price gouging has taken place,especially with the “Gorshkov”. This 31-year old aircraft carrier was given “ for free” by Russia to India in 2004. Since then, Moscow has added nearly US$ 3 billion to the price tag,thus draining the Indian Navy of the funds needed for several other fleet expansion plans. Even should the ship (now renamed “Vikramaditya”) ever get inducted into the Indian naval fleet,the costs of operation and maintenance would be huge. Of course,a few individuals would have got immense personal benefit from the deal,which is presumably the reason why the Defense Ministry is so eager for the deal to be clinched,even on the extortionate terms asked for by the Russians The high price of Russian hardware is the reason why India is now turning to the US as an alternative supplier. Once the relationship between India and the US develops, several naval vessels now in the service of the US Navy can be handed over to India, where they can be re-equipped and sent on missions such as anti-piracy patrols. Given the problems that have afflicted the Russia-India military supply relationship since 1992, it is reasonable to forecast that the coming few years will see the US supplanting Russia as India’s biggest defense supplier. Of course,Moscow will still be assured of huge profits from India,for items such as nuclear reactors. Also,Russia has an even richer customer than India, and this is China. Even as India and the US are moving closer, so are China and Russia.Today,several laboratories in Russia survive because of Chinese support, and especially since Hu Jintao took over in 2002 as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from the West-leaning Jiang Zemin, the strategic relationship between China and Russia has become much stronger than the old relationship between India and the USSR. Very clearly, a bipolar world order is emerging, with the US and China as the two poles.
Although it claims to be be non-aligned,the reality is that India is Washington’s to lose. Unless the Clinton cohort in the Obama administration once again scares away Delhi by harping on matters such as signing on to the NPT or making concessions in Kashmir, the coming years will witness the steady expansion of ties between the world’s most powerful country and the world’s most populous democracy
Que sera sera. Although India and Russia are once again good friends, they are unlikely to be allies once more, given the close ties of the former with the US. Of course,if the US makes a series of mistakes that have the effect of driving India away from its embrace ( not a bad result,in the eyes of many), then there is the prospect of another alliance taking shape: India,China and Russia.In today’s world,where money talks, the rapid growth of India will,it is hoped,assure Delhi the place at the top table that it has been denied for so long.In a caste-oriented society such as India, this counts.
Pakistan Observer - Newspaper online edition - Article
A very fascinating read
India’s Soviet tilt was the responsibility less of itself than of the Western powers. The US relied on the UK to decipher India, and London was still in the Churchillian afterglow of backing the “courageous Moslems” against the “shifty Hindoos”. It was no secret that the UK wanted Pakistan as a counterweight to an “unreliable” India, and as a bridge to the immense Muslim-majority lands to Pakistan’s west. Hence,beginning in the 1950s, the UK (and its faithful follower the US) applied incessant pressure on India to surrender the Muslim-majority state of Kashmir to Pakistan. In 1962,after the debacle caused by the Chinese advance into India’s north-east, Delhi was willing to become an ally of the US, at a time when ties with Moscow were still tentative. The initiative was killed by the crude badgering of the UK’s Duncan Sandys and his American emulators . “Give up Kashmir or else” was the message from Sandys,who -poor man - had clearly not been told that India had become an independent country in 1947. India chose the “Or else”. Again,with the collapse of the USSR, Delhi looked towards Washington to replace Moscow as an ally. The Clinton White House acted the way Sandys had three decades earlier,by demanding concessions on Kashmir that would in effect have extinguished Indian control over the state. Not surprisingly,the pressure was rebuffed. It took a decade more,and a new US President (George W Bush) before the US finally woke up to India’s potential and dealt with it as the ally of choice in the region
And what of the former ally,Moscow? As usual,the establishment in Delhi was taken unawares by events. Indeed,India was the only country in the world to officially welcome the 1991 coup against Mikhail Gorbachev, an action that did not endear Delhi to either Gorbachev or his successor Boris Yeltsin. As a consequence of India’s stubbornly pro-CPSU line, relations between itself and Russia under Boris Yeltsin were cool. Moscow was charmed by the West,and disillusionment had not yet set in. Hence, military supplies became expensive and irregular, and joint projects fell to near-zero levels.This despite India being the only country in the world that committed to repaying Moscow in old roubles,rather than the worthless currency the once-respected medium of exchange had become. The cost to an impoverished India of this generous gesture (masterminded by no less a personage than Manmohan Singh,then Union Finance Minister) was in excess of US$ 12 billion,but it was judged worthwhile in order to keep the relationship strong.and ensure steady supplies of military equipment, propositions that subsequently turned out to be inaccurate. Under Yeltsin, ties soured,even while the Clinton White House ignored the prospect of India as an ally. Indeed,those days,the US State and Commerce Departments used to warn businesspersons against investing in India,which - they claimed - was “one of the most dangerous places on earth”
It was only after the former KGB took control of Russia in 1999 from the numerous mafias backed by Yeltsin that relations with India began to warm up. Vladimir Putin,the new boss, was,unlike his predecessor, no admirer of the West. He saw his objective as being the re-emergence of Russia as a superpower, balancing the West rather than serving as an auxiliary to it. Looking at the map of Asia,Putin accepted the view of his former KGB colleagues that it would be in Moscow’s interest to renew the now lapsed alliance with India. Once again,from around 2003, military supplies began to flow into India on huge transport aircraft,and the quality of the equipment supplied rose considerably (along with the price tag). However, the desperate need of Russia for cash has meant that a substantial amount of price gouging has taken place,especially with the “Gorshkov”. This 31-year old aircraft carrier was given “ for free” by Russia to India in 2004. Since then, Moscow has added nearly US$ 3 billion to the price tag,thus draining the Indian Navy of the funds needed for several other fleet expansion plans. Even should the ship (now renamed “Vikramaditya”) ever get inducted into the Indian naval fleet,the costs of operation and maintenance would be huge. Of course,a few individuals would have got immense personal benefit from the deal,which is presumably the reason why the Defense Ministry is so eager for the deal to be clinched,even on the extortionate terms asked for by the Russians The high price of Russian hardware is the reason why India is now turning to the US as an alternative supplier. Once the relationship between India and the US develops, several naval vessels now in the service of the US Navy can be handed over to India, where they can be re-equipped and sent on missions such as anti-piracy patrols. Given the problems that have afflicted the Russia-India military supply relationship since 1992, it is reasonable to forecast that the coming few years will see the US supplanting Russia as India’s biggest defense supplier. Of course,Moscow will still be assured of huge profits from India,for items such as nuclear reactors. Also,Russia has an even richer customer than India, and this is China. Even as India and the US are moving closer, so are China and Russia.Today,several laboratories in Russia survive because of Chinese support, and especially since Hu Jintao took over in 2002 as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from the West-leaning Jiang Zemin, the strategic relationship between China and Russia has become much stronger than the old relationship between India and the USSR. Very clearly, a bipolar world order is emerging, with the US and China as the two poles.
Although it claims to be be non-aligned,the reality is that India is Washington’s to lose. Unless the Clinton cohort in the Obama administration once again scares away Delhi by harping on matters such as signing on to the NPT or making concessions in Kashmir, the coming years will witness the steady expansion of ties between the world’s most powerful country and the world’s most populous democracy
Que sera sera. Although India and Russia are once again good friends, they are unlikely to be allies once more, given the close ties of the former with the US. Of course,if the US makes a series of mistakes that have the effect of driving India away from its embrace ( not a bad result,in the eyes of many), then there is the prospect of another alliance taking shape: India,China and Russia.In today’s world,where money talks, the rapid growth of India will,it is hoped,assure Delhi the place at the top table that it has been denied for so long.In a caste-oriented society such as India, this counts.
Pakistan Observer - Newspaper online edition - Article
A very fascinating read