America - Pakistan are Friends Again
See how fast the geopolitics change, Pakistan, which was unwelcome in the corridors of power in Washington only 5 years back is being showered with gifts of $6.5 billion IMF aid, $2 billion in World Bank aid, and worst of all $450 million in military hardware upgrade. The first two are understandable and are necessary in order to get Pakistan out of the economic hole it dug for itself. The difficulty lies in understanding the military modernization of its F-16 fleet.
An official reason given by US is that this upgrade is needed to fight terrorists. Right question... where are the terrorists? Pakistan itself is a state sponsor of terrorism, and who will they fight against? A geopolitical analysis by US "think tanks" has determined that it is necessary to retain Pakistan as a client state as leverage against India.
Come to think of it; China has the same attitude towards Pakistan. For them, Pakistan is leverage against India, so helping Pakistan serves a larger strategic objective for them as well.
Consequently, Pakistan is in the lead in this geopolitical game. Both US & China want the same from Pakistan, that is, to keep India in check, although President Biden saying that ‘India-Pak are both Partners of US’. To a strong query from JaiShankar, that this military aid is “politics at work; also You are not fooling anybody”, there is no reply.
Where does that leave India in this game? India’s Foreign Minister have told the US audience that we know what game US is playing. All those highest level discussions at QUAD and 2+2 meetings with US have come to a naught. In fact, India's security is at risk if Pakistan and China, for different reasons, take part in military action against India. Then only Russian submarines will arrive in the Indian Ocean like in 1971 and ward off the Chinese and Pakistanis, both.
India knows full well that the US and China will never come to blows, although they threaten each other from time to time. It is the supply chain politics together with consumer goods imports, which will keep US and China shaking hands. In the near future US will not be able to shift the supply chain, hence US policy is not really independent but it is self interest.
India must now rethink its relations with the USA.