India Pakistan conflict along IB and LoC (July 2021 onwards)

[Covfefe]

Also look at External Debt as a percent of total debt, and the short-term debt(payments for which are to be made in near future. Not to mention the extra-budgetary debt that is not reflected on the Central Bank balance sheet.

And the debt financing of consumption expenditure or capital expenditure, debt to GDP growth to gross capital formation ratios. Look at the full data to get a clearer idea

Just for info...

Debt to GDP Ratio 2021
Pakistan 77%
India 69%

Source:

National Debt by Country / Countries with the Highest National Debt 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

 

[JBH22]

Does India have policy to engage Offensive Air Assets on its own territory during peace time? Last time we saw this was at Mizoram in the 80's.

The restraint is for civilian areas but I don't think such restriction will be applicable when encounter stretching on 15 days and in forest area.

 

[hit&run]

Just for info...

Debt to GDP Ratio 2021
Pakistan 77%
India 69%

Source:

National Debt by Country / Countries with the Highest National Debt 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

It is always about ability to earn, assets and rating.

 

[Spitfire9]

Also look at External Debt as a percent of total debt, and the short-term debt(payments for which are to be made in near future. Not to mention the extra-budgetary debt that is not reflected on the Central Bank balance sheet.

And the debt financing of consumption expenditure or capital expenditure, debt to GDP growth to gross capital formation ratios. Look at the full data to get a clearer idea

Sure, I just put up simple figures showing Pakistani debt v GDP in relation to Indian debt v GDP. Neither figure is very high compared to some other countries (Italy, Greece, for example).

If Pakistan is struggling to service external debt, that is a different matter.

 

[Covfefe]

Sure, I just put up simple figures showing Pakistani debt v GDP in relation to Indian debt v GDP.

If Pakistan is struggling to service external debt, that is a different matter.

Any country will struggle to service a higher proportion of external debt for your Central Bank's open market operations become quite ineffective in tackling those. Domestic debt can be managed through tweaking portfolio but external debt in dollars (that too during the boom phase of the global economy post-Covid) is a nightmare for any developing/ underdeveloped nation.

For instance, India has an external debt of about ~21% of the GDP, Pak at ~42%, More than 105% of foreign reserves against the sovereign debt, and the majority of foreign debt on a long term basis in the form of Infra loan from IBRD, ADB, etc.

 

[ladder]

Does India have policy to engage Offensive Air Assets on its own territory during peace time? Last time we saw this was at Mizoram in the 80's.

In the 80s? I thought last time IAF bombed Mizoram was in 1966.

 

[Jimih]

In the 80s? I thought last time IAF bombed Mizoram was in 1966.

Oops, my bad it was indeed 60's not 80's
thanks for the correction.

 

[JBH22]

Just for info...

Debt to GDP Ratio 2021
Pakistan 77%
India 69%

Source:

National Debt by Country / Countries with the Highest National Debt 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

Three things you need to factor when comparing above ratios,
1. Indian debt holders are mostly India unlike Pakistan who borrowed from China and IMF
2. End use of debt raised, Indian debt to build up infrastructure which should fuel further growth. Pakistan taking debt for funding revenue expenditure
3. Projected GDP of India is circa 5trillion by 2030 so our debt to GDP ratio would be reasonable.
For Pakistan I don't know if end of decade it will be here.

 

[hit&run]

Does India have policy to engage Offensive Air Assets on its own territory during peace time? Last time we saw this was at Mizoram in the 80's.

This is quite strange handicap we have placed on ourself. I mean if this is going to be our line of argument.

Any combat is won decisively when you stay many folds ahead of the combatants and create a massive power differential.

Looks like we are playing ‘dandia’ with terrorist and letting them have all the space to recover and bounce back.

There are no pacts between lions and the men.

The escalation ladder is a strategic doctrine, has no place in tactical warfare against insurgents.

If there is lack of connectivity and logistical constraints resulting impediments to military operations you either work on fixing both or go high caliber to cover the gaps. When an encounter is on and things are hot you can not fix either on the hoof. Probably we have been doing it for last 3 decades. That is why our grids are temporary and perishable. By now whole border should have been fortified and connected back with corresponding militarized, de-radicalized Villages preferably with Hindu population planted from rest of India and J&K. With that kind of time spent, there should have been at least 3 fortified layers.

Kudos to Pakistanis who kept disciplining us with various pacts like not allowing to improve border infrastructure and playing this game of ceasefire on and off against us. They themselves kept improving and we never put a cost on them for not abiding by any of these pacts including border patrol sanctity at LOC.

Some mechanisms are working at IB for which we are so grateful to them that their transgressions on LOC are not answered properly in a fear that it may ruine the balance on IB.

This is so mind-boggling that our politicians have normalized this ‘disputed border’ rant of Pakistan when disputed means the side under their occupation is also disputed. This normalization has become a cover for Pakistan to infiltrate and attack.

Looks like maintaining peace on the border is only India’s burden.

Leave Political rhetorics of getting back POK on yonder, the ground reality is we have been badly out gamed and no leader is ready to fix on-ground problems with on-ground solutions.

 

[Spitfire9]

Thanks for the info, all.

So at what point will Pakistan have to re-borrow to cover international loan repayments? Are there any sugar daddies in the form of Islamic nations or banks? Or will China come up with funds with all sorts of draconian strings?

 

[hit&run]

Thanks for the info, all.

So at what point will Pakistan have to re-borrow to cover international loan repayments? Are there any sugar daddies in the form of Islamic nations or banks? Or will China come up with funds with all sorts of draconian strings?

Please use Pakistan economy thread. Ideally no Indian should decipher Pakistan’s problem and then end up giving tips to them. Pakistanis are capable enough to handle their matters.

 

[Jimih]

This is quite strange handicap we have placed on ourself. I mean if this is going to be our line of argument.

Any combat is won decisively when you stay many folds ahead of the combatants and create a massive power differential.

Looks like we are playing ‘dandia’ with terrorist and letting them have all the space to recover and bounce back.

There are no pacts between lions and the men.

The escalation ladder is a strategic doctrine, has no place in tactical warfare against insurgents.

If there is lack of connectivity and logistical constraints resulting impediments to military operations you either work on fixing both or go high caliber to cover the gaps. When an encounter is on and things are hot you can not fix either on the hoof. Probably we have been doing it for last 3 decades. That is why our grids are temporary and perishable. By now whole border should have been fortified and connected. With that kind of time spent, there should have been at least 3 fortified layers.

Kudos to Pakistanis who kept disciplining us with various pacts like not allowing to improve border infrastructure and playing this game of ceasefire on and off against us. They themselves kept improving and we never put a cost on them for not abiding by any of these pacts including border patrol sanctity at LOC.

Some mechanisms are working at IB for which we are so grateful to them that their transgressions on LOC are not answered properly in a fear that it may ruine the balance on IB.

This is so mind-boggling that our politicians have normalized this ‘disputed border’ rant of Pakistan when disputed means the side under their occupation is also disputed. This normalization has become a cover for Pakistan to infiltrate and attack.

Looks like maintaining peace on the border is only India’s burden.

Leave Political rhetorics of getting back POK on yonder, the ground reality is we have been badly out gamed and no leader is ready to fix on-ground problems with on-ground solutions.

Who are the ones who want to continue this Kashmir Conflict? Why no viable solutions? What are their stakes in it?

Govt is not being open about the ongoing Poonch ops. It seems that GoI doesn't wants to escalate things at this juncture. But ultimately we will be the ones who will pay the price.

Poonch infiltration can be either to divert our attention from LAC or keep us away from Afghanistan.

 

[Brood Father]

Laura ka Lehsun . This thread has wavered off course from IB and LOC to economics ..

 

[hit&run]

Who are the ones who want to continue this Kashmir Conflict? Why no viable solutions? What are their stakes in it?

Govt is not being open about the ongoing Poonch ops. It seems that GoI doesn't wants to escalate things at this juncture. But ultimately we will be the ones who will pay the price.

Poonch infiltration can be either to divert our attention from LAC or keep us away from Afghanistan.

I have to make a distiction here. I have no problem with time it takes to conduct any operation in Kashmir. I am actually suggestive of going slow but spotless clean.

I was just going through the timeline and realized that this insurgency is pathologically going too long. In medical terms such long untreated disease result in losing the Patient.

There are definitely entities who are heavily invested not fix this problem with a sinister end game of making it too difficult to manage.

The problem has now become or may become so chronic and malignant that the only way out will be to openly topple the regional and beyond military strategic balance and attract heavy sanctions.

Remember, previous political dispensation was ready to surrender Siachin.

 

[WARREN SS]

Laura ka Lehsun . This thread has wavered off course from IB and LOC to economics ..

Because economics is bigger weapon
Than nuclear weapon in modern century

 

[Jimih]

I have to make a distiction here. I have no problem with time it takes to conduct any operation in Kashmir. I am actually suggestive of going slow but spotless clean.

What if Poonch like infiltrations props up in at multiple points at the same time, what should be our strategy than?

Yes you are right, time taking ops should not be any factor as it can push the casualties on our side.

 

[iNorthernerOn9]

It's really horrific... How... Just one cricket match... a fucking inconsequential cricket match having no relevance to security & Geopolitics has exposed so many faultlines in our country(just have a look at media reports)... what would a war do? Where are we?

 

[fire starter]

It's really horrific... How... Just one cricket match... a fucking inconsequential cricket match having no relevance to security & Geopolitics has exposed so many faultlines in our country(just have a look at media reports)... what would a war do? Where are we?

No one is surprised at all it used to happen earlier also everyone is aware of the namak harams living here.

 

[hit&run]

Because economics is bigger weapon
Than nuclear weapon in modern century

People can live off fish, off land and with basic grains. The economy will be sustained by powers who are interested to use them as proxy.

There is food chain paradigm working around us. When we start eating them someone above us the chain will start eating us. This food chain paradigm is in every sphere like economy, military, geopolitical clout etc. Any shortcoming or gaps will be then crammed by making alliances.

The point is it is a very complex game and requires a very comprehensive approach.

The criticism we must do or issues we highlight demand a qualification of above understanding of things.

Just single pronged attack is not enough here. We have to stop this menace militarily to first restore the order and secure our borders. The second part will be crackdown of similar intensity which Pakistan has used couple of times and to send a strong message to few other sprouting insurgencies.

In my understanding this is a prerequisite to any military or other offences against Pakistan.

 

[Jimih]

It's really horrific... How... Just one cricket match... a fucking inconsequential cricket match having no relevance to security & Geopolitics has exposed so many faultlines in our country(just have a look at media reports)... what would a war do? Where are we?

But atleast we know now clearly that which communities will not side with the Union in the event of war.