- Mar 10, 2021
I plan on living till the next century so I hope this happens in my lifetimeWell..you can retrieve occupied J&K in 2 ways:
1. Disintegrate porkiland due to catastrophic economic failure caused by US working with India to strangle Pakistani trade - their major exports are to the US despite all the rhetoric around deeper than the ocean friend. And then we walk in and take what we want.
2. Go for an all out war at risk of significant casualties; and a prolonged expense of holding territory as the PoJK‘s demographically altered population maybe hostile to us.
I think for us to retrieve PoJK, Pakshitstan must Balkanize first. And this requires a play where we need to degrade Ching chong- paki alliance. And this would require US support. The US would also be threatened by PLA naval play in Gwadar which is a threat to the US’ gulf bases.
The wild card in all this is India. If we grow our economy quickly to $10 trillion then the entire strategic landscape changes for us. We can enforce an economic blockade on porkis all by ourselves, with no pushback from the international community. If the gap between us and China widens, and we are stuck in lower middle income, we would be more dependent on the US to achieve our goals of degrading porki-chini beghairat bhaichara.
I don’t think GoI will play the take PoJK via a war of attrition card. Economic strangulation and disintegration of porkiland is what might be on the cards, with the US taking control of Porki nuclear assets.
One thing about the US though is they could quickly align with China again if the chingchongs start to pander even a little bit to the US concerns. This again will completely change the global strategy.
The US - India partnership continues to be a mystery with no clear agenda and what each party would do. For instance, the US has clearly said they are not in favor of giving India an advantageous trade deal. Neither have they really accelerated any joint R&D projects.
‘The issue with the US is it cannot be trusted as a reliable ally. This is why we have to watch exactly what the US does and not what the US says.