India Pakistan conflict along IB and LoC (July 2021)

Knowitall

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Hmm, so we have back channel talks with the Pakis for sometime and announce a ceasefire on the LoC. The announcement is sudden and completely inexplicable but certain opinion writers/analysts push the line that "Pak Army has realised futility of conflict with India and wants peace" - yeah right. And then we hear that IA has moved CI troops towards the China front while PA has moved forces from India front to Afghan front. Is our 2 front war strategy really to sign a Molotov–Ribbentrop like pact 😕?

We have spent over a year agonizing over China's uncharacteristic decision to militarily escalate at LAC in Oct-Nov 2019. We now have reason to believe that China precipitated this carefully managed escalation to pin down IA and limit GOI from in turn pinning down PA when the eventual drawdown of US forces commenced.

We now believe that around mid Summer 2019, MSS operatives in US Gov assured CCP that US troops would completely evacuate from Afghanistan by mid 2023. We are not sure but KGB/FSB may have filtered similar assessments to CCP.

China, and Russia have a common aim, to remove or at the very least limit US influence in Central Asia. This intelligence alert provided them with the best opportunity to remove any meaningful US influence from Central Asia, with the caveat that the US backed government in Afg. be completely removed from power to prevent backdoor US influence.

To achieve that, Pakistan was the perfect conduit. But that required Pakistan to be

A. freed up from the overbearing pressure of IA on the LOC, which the IA had been putting in place since 2018 to inflict disproportionate punitive losses on enemy troops and morale.
B. Secured from India's ability to threaten Pak military and precipitate a crisis on the eastern front, as India had done in Feb 2019.

Pakistan needed to be secured from Indian pressure when PA-ISI began to turn the heat up in Afghanistan. PLA was instructed to begin putting in place a series of seemingly disjointed series of actions that could be consolidated quickly when required to create a level of escalation that would limit IA and GOI's freedom of operation on Pak theatre.

From end 2019 till early april 2020 this is exactly what the PLA and PLAAF did, carefully setting up provocations that GOI tried to brush under the carpet, under the assumption that these were localized chinese actions meant as a show of strength. It was only in June when things escalated due to a miscalculation on PLA side, that IA realized this escalation was different in nature. Note that this is around exactly the time when the Taliban spring offensive was winding down and autumn offensive was building up. As we all know the autumn offensive was unlike anything before in terms of intensity and ferocity.

India and Afghan government are now caught in a bind. None of the global and regional powers wants to talk or even include either of the two in any conference discussions because they firmly believe that Afghan resistance has at best 6 months of survival left, and that majority of the country will fall to the Taliban well before that. Nobody is interested in talking to losers and the backers of the losers before what they believe is an inevitable defeat, except sermonizing the govt to lay down arms and surrender.

This is a defining moment for India's foreign policy. If Afghan government falls, India will never find another ally anywhere. Nobody trusts an ally who wont protect their allies. The only way we save Afghanistan is to do whatever it takes to protect the government from falling and turning this into an unwinnable war for the Taliban. Only then will the powers be convinced of the need to take negotiations seriously. Pakistan and China must be denied a complete victory, and Russia and US must be convinced that the Afghan govt. can sustain the civil war indefinitely. Only then will the two allies voices be heard.

We need Afghanistan to turn this into a quagmire for the taliban and Pakistan and China. Nothing less will be adequate.
All of this now makes a lot of sense.

Maybe the end goal was to allow pakistan a free hand to operate in pakistan.

Think about it pakistan sends drones launches bombs on airbases sends drones regularly yet we only lodge complaints and exchange sweets why?.

To deal with china at our borders our planners had to sign a ceasefire with pak because they were not confident in our ability to maintain deployments at both the fronts.

This in turn allows pak to influence afghanistan

If afganistan falls we lose our entire influence in central asia.
 

SUPERPOWER

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All of this now makes a lot of sense.

Maybe the end goal was to allow pakistan a free hand to operate in pakistan.

Think about it pakistan sends drones launches bombs on airbases sends drones regularly yet we only lodge complaints and exchange sweets why?.

To deal with china at our borders our planners had to sign a ceasefire with pak because they were not confident in our ability to maintain deployments at both the fronts.

This in turn allows pak to influence afghanistan

If afganistan falls we lose our entire influence in central asia.
And our Super chest thumper Bipin Rawat says " OUR ARMED FORCES ARE READY AND CAPABLE TO COUNTER ANY KIND OF 2 FRONT WAR " ..

MUH SE MUUNGFALI THODI JAATI NAHI AUR YEH GAAND SE AKROT THODNE KI BAAT KARTE HAI....

India is safe just becoz of only of our brave Army jawans who can just take out gattling gun with a Khukri...Jai Hind....Jai Shree Ram..
 

FalconSlayers

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When are we going to infiltrate porkistan.Time for raising another ikhwan in kashmir.
Ikhwan-Ul Muslimeen is an outdated concept now, back then it was easier now village security guards or whatever it is called where civilians are given training of firearms and are provided small arms for self defence etc is what should be done.
 

Indrajit

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And our Super chest thumper Bipin Rawat says " OUR ARMED FORCES ARE READY AND CAPABLE TO COUNTER ANY KIND OF 2 FRONT WAR " ....
So what should the CDS say when asked that question or when faced with that situation? That our armed forces aren't capable of fighting that war.....?

I don't understand the berating of soldiers. Gen.Rawat has earned the right to his comments with 4 decades of service, those of us who indulge in online soldiering can differ with any opinion expressed but should remember that he and we aren't on equal footing and therefore should always differ/dissent without unnecessary bombast.
 

Lost user

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Our Indian diaspora especially in Western countries are not comparable to porkistani counterparts when it comes to lobbying
Indian living their are high paid but they never enjoyed position of power
Eg see porki diaspora mostly made of 3 rd class workers but the mayor London is porki and porki enjoy powerful position their after being 3 rd class workers.
After being 3 rd rater they enjoy position of power we after being one of richest in that place have no powerful position
Not true.. Rishi Sunak and Priti Patel are more powerful the Sajid Javid. It's just that Indian diaspora are generally not ready to take on the vitriol of the Islamo Marxist gangs..
 

Hariharan_kalarikkal

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Indian Diaspora is full of assholes. Buggers when come to India for ,will speak in a fake accent and will behave as if they are in a new country . Will always compare everything ,but are ready to die for a dollar.
Amen to that
I have a relative in London, speaks the fake accent, and shits on RSS and Hindutva regularly and says how we can learn from the white man,
it is very unnerving to hear
When he dishes out English in Fake accent I can't help but remember the days when he spoke piss poor English and used to go swim with us in the temple pond and played Gali cricket
Interesting how just a decade can change a man
 

Jimih

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Hmm, so we have back channel talks with the Pakis for sometime and announce a ceasefire on the LoC. The announcement is sudden and completely inexplicable but certain opinion writers/analysts push the line that "Pak Army has realised futility of conflict with India and wants peace" - yeah right. And then we hear that IA has moved CI troops towards the China front while PA has moved forces from India front to Afghan front. Is our 2 front war strategy really to sign a Molotov–Ribbentrop like pact 😕?
What Indian military planners are thinking is hard to comprehend. Rationality and Irrationality both coincide with each other in this aspect.

Even the '62 war didnt make us realise that China is our greatest enemy. Movement and re-orientation of troops is a sign that maybe IA and GoI not taking Pakistan threat seriously anymore. Also we are too much fixated on Pakistan and missing the greater game. India will try to avoid war at any cost at this moment.

But did Molotov-Ribbentrop pact stopped Germany to invade Soviet Russia? These pacts look good on paper only. We all saw how 6 Indo-China CBM pacts were demolished by China itself with infiltration and aggression.
 

Jimih

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Not true.. Rishi Sunak and Priti Patel are more powerful the Sajid Javid. It's just that Indian diaspora are generally not ready to take on the vitriol of the Islamo Marxist gangs..
Rishi Sunak is the son-in-law of Infosys founder Narayan Murthy.

Just count how many Indian-Americans are there in Biden administration. With these sheer number we are still not able to influence US and the West. Because these coconuts have moved upwards in the US political and societal hiearchy by downplaying India and its Majority's culture.

Don't expect anything from these Indian/Hindu sounding names. They have totally sold themselves and their consciences to reach these positions.
 

Hariharan_kalarikkal

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Cheran

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SUPERPOWER

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So what should the CDS say when asked that question or when faced with that situation? That our armed forces aren't capable of fighting that war.....?

I don't understand the berating of soldiers. Gen.Rawat has earned the right to his comments with 4 decades of service, those of us who indulge in online soldiering can differ with any opinion expressed but should remember that he and we aren't on equal footing and therefore should always differ/dissent without unnecessary bombast.
Please read my comments carefully...I have never denied Gen. Rawat should not comment but when you comment it should be implemented..which is not happening...so you know EMPTY VESSEL MAKES MORE SOUND.
 

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