Dessert Storm
New Member
- Joined
- Sep 8, 2020
- Messages
- 1,675
- Likes
- 5,868
My take on this and similar:New drama has started.
China in indian ocean.
1. The Pakistanis are well within their rights to let Chinese or whoever use their bases for whatever purpose.
2. The Chinese are doing what they do best .....expansionism of their boundaries and ideology, which is in line with their superpower ambitions.
3. The more the Chinese start using Pakistani bases, the more the Westerns would be forced to lean on India to counter China.
4. Two front war for India ain't a newly germinating reality, we would have already factored that in, so counter-measures would be in place or in progress.
5. The presence of Chinese assets cannot give any more strategic depth to Pakistan because geography is a given. What works on Pakistani assets, would work in the same way for any other assets (India bombing military assets in Pakistani territory is different from bombing assets in China). In a war, those assets are game too.
6. Going forward from point 3, given their leanings towards us based on Chinese reality in Pakistan, although they won't want to let go of Pakistan fully, the Westerns would be forced to hedge their bets with India.
7. The picture therefore in the Indian Subcontinent region would be that Westerns would not mind India having a border with Afghanistan. This change has more to do with disconnecting the direct physical connection between China and Pakistan rather than anything else.
8. The disconnect would have benefits like Pakistan's continued and increased reliance on Westerns, restricting alternative accesses to Central Asia both through Afghanistan and Pakistan, restricting Chinese access to Indian Ocean Region.
9. India intends to have it's territories back and have a border with Afghanistan as it is very important for our geo-political interests in the Central Asian Region and beyond.
10. Given the convergence of interests between the Westerns and us, it is most likely that we will take our territories back from Pakistan to start with (take back would in my opinion be feuelled by overwhelming military ability in our favour + overwhelming diplomatic opinion in our favour + overwhelming diplomatic pressure on Pakistan + huge social unrest in Pakistan). How much time for remaining territories...... depends on how it pans out after retake part 1.
11. After retake part 1, disintegration of Pakistan is a huge possibility.
12. China's advance would be substantially weakened.
* Obviously China has its own plans. I am putting forth my POV as an Indian.
** Chinese use of Pakistani territories therefore acts as a catalyst to speed up the process of leanings and retake part 1. So that's a glass half full for me.
*** Taiwanese indepence is an important cog in the wheel. If things go south for them, it only postpones what is presented above.
**** By 2026 part 1.
***** 2035-40 part 2.
****** Assumption- The government with current intent stays on.