What I wanted to say was, Pakistan will conduct some big terror strike before Srinagar G20 (obvious). If they fail, this is a win-win for us, and things will calm down.
However, if Pakistan succeeds (high probability), we will be forced to respond (either after G20, if it happens, or if it gets canceled, immediately). Now, all these have been game-planned by China + Pakistan in the last two months (High-level meets between ISI & MSS).
So this gives us three situations,
- India still doesn't respond after a massive terror attack and possibly G20 cancellation. The reason is China breathing down our neck in Ladakh & Arunachal Pradesh. This will be a massive face-loss for the BJP as well as India as a country whole. This will have long-term consequences which won't be pleasant.
- India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan will 100% escalate to a local conflict. India either ignores subsequent escalation (very hard), or downplays it due to Chinese threat. Again, losing face massively, plus giving a moral victory to Pakistan.
- India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan escalates to a local conflict, and we respond in kind. China joins the game to put multi-pronged pressure, which might not be limited to local land-grab like in 2020, but a large-scale combined China-Pak kinetic over northern J&K (Drass-Kargil-Siachen) and Ladakh.
Anyway, all these situations are loose-loose for India.
[Please don't start a meltdown, all these are hypothetical]