India Pakistan conflict along IB and LoC (July 2021 onwards)

[singhboy98]

Why won't they work? Just because you "believe"?

Sub 82 IQ take. You want to light an entire mountain without knowing where they hide lol.

1.) I don't "believe" that drones won't work. I KNOW they DON'T work. What you are saying has been tried before. Same results in those forests.

2.) Gosh you guys really have comprehension issues. The "lighting up with artillery" argument was made to underline the ludicrous nature of solutions being proposed by brochure warriors here. All of the shiny brochures being thrown around here will fail in this specific Rajouri forest use cases. Don't really mind being called "sub -82 IQ" as long as the message is being delivered.

 

[singhboy98]

You will have to carpet bomb the entire forest, small homes within forest area, etc without any localization of targets. Such loud noise and carpet bombing will set back government’s agenda in J&K, and the end of tourism there as every 2 bit news media will declare J&K as a war zone. No G20, no tourism nothing. If this tactic was effective IDF would have bombed entire Lebanese forests to get rid of the hiding hezbollahs. Carpet bombing is just wishful thinking.

Glad you understand the sheer lunacy of the idea. What you are proposing is similar in scale if not the effect.

This Rajouri shitshow has turned into game of attrition now. There is NO easy way out. And these terrorists are no sub-82 IQ types (unlike the brochure warriors here). Unless local HUMINT is sorted out and regular domination of these forests is not done, expect more such events in the future.

 

[Kumaoni]

1.) Step outside your room and visit Kashmir for once. DRONES WON'T WORK. This has been repeated ad nauseam on this thread over many years. The foliage is too damn thick. And you are talking about deploying MALE drones to support ops in a super dense Montane Forest? Are you 13 years old?

2.) Why non-lethal ones. I am all for Agent Orange'ing these swines. But to do that, you have to get them first. Which is when we sustain casualties.

For those members who are not familiar with how these things work, the OGWs of these terrorists have made numerous weapon/ammo/resupply hideouts in these forests over a long period of time. The infiltrating group has a clear cut strategy as to how to mount attacks using which hideout and the relevant fall back positions or exfio routes. That is why these ops stretch on for months on end.

There is NO solution to this problem save for the extreme one. Like a certain Brigadier Pratap said, it is about the Qaum. The sooner we get ourselves out the of the delusions of the good/bad type, the better of we will be.

Why aren’t we hitting the pads across the border, is what I want to know? Most of their main camps are literally on the LoC, from their side. They can’t make hideouts here if they aren’t able to infiltrate.

 

[Kumaoni]

You guys fail to see the point. Carpet bomb, use drone strikes, whatever, it won’t work because they can keep on coming and coming and sending more fodder.

 

[another_armchair]

As India-Pak Ceasefire Enters Third Year, Here's How Lives Have Changed

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir completed two years this week, marking a rare period of peace between the two countries.

www.ndtv.com

While the LoC is calm, attempts to smuggle weapons and drugs using drones, mainly from areas of Jammu, continue. The army has said that counter-drone equipment has been deployed to prevent frequent drone intrusions.

Most of these drone intrusions have taken place along the international border (IB) in Kathua, Samba, and Jammu district. Unlike the LoC, the IB is manned by the Border Security Force (BSF).

https://carnegieindia.org/2022/02/24/bordering-on-peace-evaluating-impact-of-india-pakistan-ceasefire-pub-86513

 

[ezsasa]

Why aren’t we hitting the pads across the border, is what I want to know? Most of their main camps are literally on the LoC, from their side. They can’t make hideouts here if they aren’t able to infiltrate.

between late 2014 and 2019, launch pads across the border used to get hit under the cover of CFV duels.
there will be posts on this in the old closed LOC thread.

 

[ezsasa]

"Not in our interest to be locked into perpetual hostility with Pakistan, no body wants that..but somewhere we have to draw & stand by our red lines.." says EAM Jaishankar; Adds, "if neighbour attacks my city, ambushes my military..I dont think It should be business as usual"

 

[mokoman]

China and Pak sandwiching india

View attachment 203373

Same shit, another name

Jabbaaz Force is led by a Pakistani army veteran who also participated in the 1998 Kargil war

G20 meeting in kashmir will be held may 22 - 24 .

@mist_consecutive thinks pakistan will do big escalation . we will respond balakot style and china will join in with some form of support .

i think its possible both will try to humiliate us in front of world . :| will see in 15 days .

 

[TopWatcher]

G20 meeting in kashmir will be held may 22 - 24 .

@mist_consecutive thinks pakistan will do big escalation . we will respond balakot style and china will join in with some form of support .

i think its possible both will try to humiliate us in front of world . :| will see in 15 days .

But this going to happen one day. Hum kab tak darrr ke baide rahenge.

Darr ke agge jeet hai. IA might be looses focus that's why this happened. Not any special about it. Pehle bhi hamle hote rahe hai


Let them humiliate us, hum apna kaam karenge.

 

[iNorthernerOn9]

Wasted an hour searching for an old video (of around the same time US withdrew from Afghanistan) where a PAF veteran was explaining how India would be subjected to a 4 pronged pincer in 2023-24

& bloody hell... all that is happening... 4 pincers he mentioned arw China, Pak, Kashmir & NE.

 

[SavageKing456]

G20 meeting in kashmir will be held may 22 - 24 .

@mist_consecutive thinks pakistan will do big escalation . we will respond balakot style and china will join in with some form of support .

i think its possible both will try to humiliate us in front of world . :| will see in 15 days .

I somehow doubt that
Election is still an year away

 

[flanker99]

G20 meeting in kashmir will be held may 22 - 24 .

@mist_consecutive thinks pakistan will do big escalation . we will respond balakot style and china will join in with some form of support .

i think its possible both will try to humiliate us in front of world . :| will see in 15 days .

i think nothing major will happen before g20 srinagar but efforts will be made later before election to not only humiliate india but also dampen modi's image before election

 

[mist_consecutive]

G20 meeting in kashmir will be held may 22 - 24 .

@mist_consecutive thinks pakistan will do big escalation . we will respond balakot style and china will join in with some form of support .

i think its possible both will try to humiliate us in front of world . :| will see in 15 days .

What I wanted to say was, Pakistan will conduct some big terror strike before Srinagar G20 (obvious). If they fail, this is a win-win for us, and things will calm down.

However, if Pakistan succeeds (high probability), we will be forced to respond (either after G20, if it happens, or if it gets canceled, immediately). Now, all these have been game-planned by China + Pakistan in the last two months (High-level meets between ISI & MSS).

So this gives us three situations,

• India still doesn't respond after a massive terror attack and possibly G20 cancellation. The reason is China breathing down our neck in Ladakh & Arunachal Pradesh. This will be a massive face-loss for the BJP as well as India as a country whole. This will have long-term consequences which won't be pleasant.
  
  
• India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan will 100% escalate to a local conflict. India either ignores subsequent escalation (very hard), or downplays it due to Chinese threat. Again, losing face massively, plus giving a moral victory to Pakistan.
  
  
• India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan escalates to a local conflict, and we respond in kind. China joins the game to put multi-pronged pressure, which might not be limited to local land-grab like in 2020, but a large-scale combined China-Pak kinetic over northern J&K (Drass-Kargil-Siachen) and Ladakh.

Anyway, all these situations are loose-loose for India.

[Please don't start a meltdown, all these are hypothetical]

 

[skunk works]

"Not in our interest to be locked into perpetual hostility with Pakistan, no body wants that..but somewhere we have to draw & stand by our red lines.." says EAM Jaishankar; Adds, "if neighbour attacks my city, ambushes my military..I dont think It should be business as usual"

Hmm specifically mentioned ambush (truck attack). That may mean it's on his mind, which may mean it's being discussed in high circles.

 

[jai jaganath]

What I wanted to say was, Pakistan will conduct some big terror strike before Srinagar G20 (obvious). If they fail, this is a win-win for us, and things will calm down.

However, if Pakistan succeeds (high probability), we will be forced to respond (either after G20, if it happens, or if it gets canceled, immediately). Now, all these have been game-planned by China + Pakistan in the last two months (High-level meets between ISI & MSS).

So this gives us three situations,

• India still doesn't respond after a massive terror attack and possibly G20 cancellation. The reason is China breathing down our neck in Ladakh & Arunachal Pradesh. This will be a massive face-loss for the BJP as well as India as a country whole. This will have long-term consequences which won't be pleasant.
  
  
• India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan will 100% escalate to a local conflict. India either ignores subsequent escalation (very hard), or downplays it due to Chinese threat. Again, losing face massively, plus giving a moral victory to Pakistan.
  
  
• India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan escalates to a local conflict, and we respond in kind. China joins the game to put multi-pronged pressure, which might not be limited to local land-grab like in 2020, but a large-scale combined China-Pak kinetic over northern J&K (Drass-Kargil-Siachen) and Ladakh.

Anyway, all these situations are loose-loose for India.

[Please don't start a meltdown, all these are hypothetical]

No point to meltdown over obvious
Par koi vishesh vidhi kai jiske prayog se hum sara khel apne aur palta sake
Dhanyawad

 

[shade]

What I wanted to say was, Pakistan will conduct some big terror strike before Srinagar G20 (obvious). If they fail, this is a win-win for us, and things will calm down.

However, if Pakistan succeeds (high probability), we will be forced to respond (either after G20, if it happens, or if it gets canceled, immediately). Now, all these have been game-planned by China + Pakistan in the last two months (High-level meets between ISI & MSS).

So this gives us three situations,

• India still doesn't respond after a massive terror attack and possibly G20 cancellation. The reason is China breathing down our neck in Ladakh & Arunachal Pradesh. This will be a massive face-loss for the BJP as well as India as a country whole. This will have long-term consequences which won't be pleasant.
  
  
• India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan will 100% escalate to a local conflict. India either ignores subsequent escalation (very hard), or downplays it due to Chinese threat. Again, losing face massively, plus giving a moral victory to Pakistan.
  
  
• India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan escalates to a local conflict, and we respond in kind. China joins the game to put multi-pronged pressure, which might not be limited to local land-grab like in 2020, but a large-scale combined China-Pak kinetic over northern J&K (Drass-Kargil-Siachen) and Ladakh.

Anyway, all these situations are loose-loose for India.

[Please don't start a meltdown, all these are hypothetical]

The 3rd secenario may happen, can't have strongman leader taking provocations from India favorite punching bag lying down especially when LS elections are close.
Imo they will lockdown Srinagar unofficially and saturate it and surroundings with CAPFs, so doing something on/at the G20 venue is unlikely.

 

[SavageKing456]

What I wanted to say was, Pakistan will conduct some big terror strike before Srinagar G20 (obvious). If they fail, this is a win-win for us, and things will calm down.

However, if Pakistan succeeds (high probability), we will be forced to respond (either after G20, if it happens, or if it gets canceled, immediately). Now, all these have been game-planned by China + Pakistan in the last two months (High-level meets between ISI & MSS).

So this gives us three situations,

• India still doesn't respond after a massive terror attack and possibly G20 cancellation. The reason is China breathing down our neck in Ladakh & Arunachal Pradesh. This will be a massive face-loss for the BJP as well as India as a country whole. This will have long-term consequences which won't be pleasant.
  
  
• India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan will 100% escalate to a local conflict. India either ignores subsequent escalation (very hard), or downplays it due to Chinese threat. Again, losing face massively, plus giving a moral victory to Pakistan.
  
  
• India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan escalates to a local conflict, and we respond in kind. China joins the game to put multi-pronged pressure, which might not be limited to local land-grab like in 2020, but a large-scale combined China-Pak kinetic over northern J&K (Drass-Kargil-Siachen) and Ladakh.

Anyway, all these situations are loose-loose for India.

[Please don't start a meltdown, all these are hypothetical]

Interesting times ahead
But what if there is no terror attack?

 

[flanker99]

Interesting times ahead
But what if there is no terror attack?

Everything stays the same

 

[Butter Chicken]

PIA flight enters Indian airspace, flies near Amritsar and Tarn Taran Sahib before landing in Multan

 

[Physx32]

What I wanted to say was, Pakistan will conduct some big terror strike before Srinagar G20 (obvious). If they fail, this is a win-win for us, and things will calm down.

However, if Pakistan succeeds (high probability), we will be forced to respond (either after G20, if it happens, or if it gets canceled, immediately). Now, all these have been game-planned by China + Pakistan in the last two months (High-level meets between ISI & MSS).

So this gives us three situations,

• India still doesn't respond after a massive terror attack and possibly G20 cancellation. The reason is China breathing down our neck in Ladakh & Arunachal Pradesh. This will be a massive face-loss for the BJP as well as India as a country whole. This will have long-term consequences which won't be pleasant.
  
  
• India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan will 100% escalate to a local conflict. India either ignores subsequent escalation (very hard), or downplays it due to Chinese threat. Again, losing face massively, plus giving a moral victory to Pakistan.
  
  
• India responds by Balakot/Surgical-strike type operation. Pakistan escalates to a local conflict, and we respond in kind. China joins the game to put multi-pronged pressure, which might not be limited to local land-grab like in 2020, but a large-scale combined China-Pak kinetic over northern J&K (Drass-Kargil-Siachen) and Ladakh.

Anyway, all these situations are loose-loose for India.

[Please don't start a meltdown, all these are hypothetical]

G20 will end in September. So, whatever terrorist attack occurs before the Srinagar summit (big or small), only the first scenario will happen. After September, common public will forget about this and it'll be business as usual. Maybe, they'll do something before elections.