Well only hope is Nobel peace prize winner mudi ji tries some stunt before 2024... Not expecting any action otherwise.
Aggressive India is a thing of the past. If it were 70's & 80's with Porkistan this weak we might have not given a second thought & attacked instantly.
Nation always was ready for war back then. As they say “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”
Indians don't look much eager to a conflict these days especially after RN we saw after Feb 2019.
With the Pakistani economy in total shambles, are we missing the
once-in-a-century opportunity to attack and break Pakistan's back ?
Possible options we can exercise -
- Do nothing - Pakistan gets bailed out with multi-billion dollar loans from IMF and China. Pakistan keeps dragging its slow economy while China keeps arming it with weapons to counter India. It becomes a north-Korean-type hellhole like a suicide bomb strapped to our doors, a constant threat to our peace and security.
- Surgical strikes targeting HVTs - Hitting airbases, taking out radars, HQs, and missile silos. Karachi harbor gets razed and with it, the entire Pakistani navy. A large chunk of PAF either gets destroyed or disabled.
There will be some repercussions, like the threat of a Chinese attack, but currently, all the high reaches of the Himalayas are frozen and hence, a counter-attack from China is unlikely. US & NATO will be unhappy but we can try to make it up for them by siding against Russia. In the longer run, this might be the best option.
- Re-capture PoK - A juicy target but unlikely to succeed. Capturing mountains is difficult in itself and Pakistan can throw an unlimited amount of piss-poor infantry at us. Won't succeed within 2-3 months and China will 100% butt in as soon as snow melts. Can end up like the Russia-Ukraine disaster.
Without any doubt, we do have a problem where we shy away from the use of military force when we genuinely should. That is identified and must be addressed properly.
But we shouldn't fight Pakistan. No military action against them during this stage or in the near future. We need to think strategically than tactically; as a statesman that a general.
Consider we did take military action and did one of the below:
1. Bomb the sh*t out of the Jihadist outfits in POK
2. Conquer POK back
3. Somehow waged a complete war on Pak without somehow going nuclear.
1. Pakistan will swallow the losses. But the humiliation will remain. It'll start building the Jihadist factories again, only more secure this time. The terrorist problem in the valley could likely decline but it'll not disappear.
2. POK has 40 Lakh people. We are already facing so much problem with 12 Lakh population in our Kashmir. Taking back POK means we'll get a 3.5X larger population that's 10X more radicalized than our Kashmiris.
3. Then what? We'll be made the international Phariah. Sure, we won't go down. But we'll take a hit. A hard hit. It's impossible to govern a country with that big of a population. The manpower needed isn't even possible—unless we rule like a dictator—which we surely wouldn't. And if we did, then we'll lose almost all of the global standing.
My point is war, big or small, conquering or destroying, wouldn't help us at a fundamental level. We need to dig deeper and attack the pillars of Pakistan.
Rather than try destroy it militarily, how about we attack it societally, regionally, religiously, economically? We are doing some of these things but not at a scale and intensity enough to implode Pakistan.
The means should be infiltration into their high ranks, subversion and internal chaos. Pakistanis are up for sale. Their economy has gone from bad to worse and the army would eventually feel the heat. Then, we step in, buy the ones we can, promote people aligned with our own ideologies and create their Gorbachev. Pakistan's military is not monolithic. It's a reality we need to fully take advantage of.
The Greatest Victory Is That Which Requires No Battle: Sun Tzu
This is the mantra to go by. The goal should be to increase the growing faultlines in Paki and exploit them to the fullest. Let them implode, turn against each other and create an enmity.
It surely isn't easy but it'll solve most of the problems we face sans the nuke threat. If we manage to leverage our position and grab their nukes, then it's 100% solved.
We need to influence both their elite and the common people. They both live in their own worlds.
The situation on ground is more complex but this is the most concise observation:
Elite would like money, influence and power. Common people are religious zealots.
We need to destroy them from within. And we need to plan, fund and orchestrate it. It might take 5 years, 10 years or even 15 years. The worse Paki's situation gets, the more leverage we have. But if we do it right, Pakistani will be gone forever without firing a single bullet. Then, we can form an EU style federation with India as the core, drive the laws of Balochistan, Sindh and the like. Take a generation or two to reverse brainwash the radicalized population and in fact, push them the Saudi Way—jail the mullas, allow concerts, alcohol, liberal, and all that shit—heavily influence the institutions of these newly born countries.
Before you say this is purely a day dream or even worse, a fantasy, think for a minute how many nations were influenced by the US and ended with this fate. Heck, USSR is the prime example. But US is the biggest country? Then China. It has great leverage over other countries because it has people in power aligning with it.
Both US and China buy up people, subvert the existing structure and control the institutions.
If we genuinely aspire to be a big boy on the globe, then we need to act like one. It isn't enough to grow economy and become rich, we need to be in control without needing to resort to violence.
