India may make up 25% of world's workforce by 2025

[Bangalorean]

Essentially, the article looks at all the "doomsday scenarios" and looks at the positive side of all those.

Good, occasionally we need some optimism too! :thumb:

 

[nrj]

I agree this article is bit high on optimism. But I found few point quite relevant.

After couple of decades, everyday India will be waking up one of the largest workforce on the planet. Now that fires up the mammoth growth engine. Too bad, other developing countries screwed themselves with inane one-child policy while western countries realize that they aged their population.

 

[Armand2REP]

I didn't get past the first sentence without ...

free of corruption

 

[john70]

Quiet optimistic but achievable.
Nrj is right v have the highest young population in the world and that inclusive of english speaking ability, really is the game changer for becoming economic superpower.

 

[Rahul92]

Callcenter Superpower

 

[amoy]

Rahul I like your avatar Shelly

 

[nrj]

Merged with a old thread

 

[s002wjh]

to take over china manufacture jobs with population alone is not gonna help.
1. manufacture jobs is not like flipping hamburger, it require certain set of skills. china already has decades of experenice in how to, efficiently manufacture things in bulk. one of the reason indicate in NYT:why apple move manufacture to china, shows that cheap labor is a small reason for outsourcing now, the most important reason is because if customer want something custom made, it can be done next door in half day, if they need hire 6000workers, it can be done in a week.
it require skill set between high school and college degree, this is especially true for consumer electronic.
2. one of the reason many company still keep their factories in china despite raising labor cost is because Infrastructure. infrastructure is crucial when coporation want to save cost, increase efficiency, and reduce transportation cost/time. if company has to spend alot time or $$$ to ship its product from to port then to US, then they will reconsider building their factories in that country.
3. superior supply chain, this is relate to #1. basically customer can request almost any custom product in china and be made in very short time due to its infrastructure, manufacture capability, etc etc. these advantage in china significantly reduce introduction of new products, thus speed up the innovation process elsewhere. we've seen new smartphone/touchpad/other electronic come out almost every year, partially due to better supply chain and efficiency of the chinese manufactures. therefore company like apply, samsung can concetrate on R&D next gen smart phone or TV etc without worry about schedule of introduce the new product, and mass produce it.

And money is certainly part of it.

But an amazing new article by Charles Duhigg and Keith Bradsher of the New York Times reveals that there's a lot more to it than that.

The article illustrates just how big a challenge the U.S. faces in trying stop the "hollowing out" process that has sent middle-class jobs overseas--and, with it, the extreme inequality that has developed in recent years.

The reason Apple makes iPhones and iPads in China, the article shows, is not just about money.

Manufacturing an iPhone in the United States would cost about $65 more than manufacturing it in China, where it costs an estimated $8. This additional $65 would dent the profit Apple makes on each iPhone, but it wouldn't eliminate it. (The iPhone average selling price is about $600, and Apple's average gross margin is about 40%. So Apple's gross profit on each iPhone is probably in the neighborhood of $250.)

The real reasons Apple makes iPhones in China, therefore, are as follows:

"¢Most of the components of iPhones and iPads--the supply chain--are now manufactured in China, so assembling the phones half-a-world away would create huge logistical challenges. It would also reduce flexibility--the ability to switch easily from one component supplier or manufacturer to another.
"¢China's factories are now far bigger and more nimble than those in the United States. They can hire (and fire) tens of thousands of workers practically overnight. Because so many of the workers live on-site, they can also press them into service at a moment's notice. And they can change production practices and speeds extremely rapidly.
"¢China now has a far bigger supply of appropriately-qualified engineers than the U.S. does--folks with the technical skills necessary to build complex gadgets but not so credentialed that they cost too much.
"¢And, lastly, China's workforce is much hungrier and more frugal than many of their counterparts in the United States.
On this last point, Duhigg and Bradsher tell the story of Eric Saragoza, an engineer who began working in an Apple factory near Sacramento in 1995. The plant made Macs, and for a few years, Saragoza did well, earning $50,000 a year, getting married and having kids, and buying a house with a pool.



Your iPhone is built, in part, by 13-year olds working for ~70 cents an hour. But that's not the only reason Apple builds them in Shenzhen.Soon, however, Apple started shipping jobs overseas, because the costs of manufacturing in Asia were so much lower. Importantly, these reduced costs weren't just about wages--they were about being closer to the supply chain and the willingness of the workforce to put in over-time.

Saragoza was soon asked to work 12-hour days and come in on Saturdays. But, understandably, he wanted to watch his kids play soccer on the weekends.

Saragoza's salary was too high for him to take an unskilled job. And he didn't have the experience and credentials necessary to move into senior management. In 2002, his job was eliminated. Apple, meanwhile, turned the Elk Grove plant into an AppleCare facility, with call-center employees making $12 an hour.

Recently, desperate for work, Saragoza took a job at an electronics temp firm. Assigned to the AppleCare plant, he was paid $10 an hour to test repaired iPads before they were sent back to customers. That job paid so little (and was presumably so depressing) that the now 48-year-old Saragoza quit and is looking for work again.

Meanwhile, in Shenzhen, a young project manager named Lina Lin coordinates the manufacture of Apple accessories for a company in the Apple ecosystem. She makes a bit less than Saragoza made a decade ago as an Apple engineer. She lives in an 1,100-square foot apartment with her husband, their in-laws, and their son. They save a quarter of their salaries every month.

There are lots of jobs in Shenzhen, Lin says.

So, yes, money is part of why all of our gadgets are built in China. But what started a couple of decades ago as a reach for efficiency has now resulted in the entire electronics-manufacturing ecosystem being lifted up and transferred to China.

Apple doesn't build iPhones in the United States, in other words, because there is no longer an ecosystem here to support that manufacturing. There's no supply chain, there aren't enough super-low-cost workers, and there are not enough mid-level engineers. And many Americans looking for work are still hoping for a return to jobs, salaries, and lifestyles that have simply disappeared.

This is a complex problem, and there's no easy solution. But it's a problem this country is going to have to fix. Or the massive middle class that once drove America's prosperity will just cease to exist.

Now go read Duhigg and Bradsher...



Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-01-22/news/30652073_1_iphone-apple-china#ixzz1pafP8OpJ

 

[trackwhack]

to take over china manufacture jobs with population alone is not gonna help.
1. manufacture jobs is not like flipping hamburger, it require certain set of skills. china already has decades of experenice in how to, efficiently manufacture things in bulk. one of the reason indicate in NYT:why apple move manufacture to china, shows that not only its cheap labor, but the most important reason is because if they want something custom made, it can be done next door in half day, if they need hire 6000workers, it can be done in a week.
it require skill set between high school and college degree, this is especially true for consumer electronic.
2. one of the reason many company still keep their factories in china despite raising labor cost is because Infrastructure. infrastructure is crucial when coporation want to save cost, increase efficiency, and reduce transportation cost/time. if company has to spend alot time or $$$ to ship its product from to port then to US, then will reconsider builing their factories in that country.
3. superior supply chain, this is relate to #1. basically customer can request almost any custom product in china and be made in very short time due to its infrastructure, manufacture capability, etc etc. these advantage in china significantly reduce introduction of new products, thus speed up the innovation process elsewhere. we've seen new smartphone/touchpad/other electronic come out almost every year, partially due to better supply chain and efficiency of the chinese manufactures.

Your points are moot. All three things you stated can be developed. China had jack shit 30 years back. Whatever you setup you set it up in the last 3 decades. Dont talk like those things are some inherent qualities that no one else can acquire.

That said,

I would prefer we do not become a manufacturing lead economy. It would be in our society's interests to make sure that manufacturing stays below 40% of overall GDP. It would also be in our interests to ensure that the urban:rural population ratio stays 40:60 and never more. The right path would be to create a sustainable highly developed rural economy with micro supply chains.

To elaborate, we should try not to become a skewed economy like the US where an average meal travels 2000 miles before it reaches the plate of the end consumer. This is a result of massive farm consolidation and corporate farming. There is no local economy in the US and China is heading in exactly the same direction. In the short term this results in huge cost gains, in the long term it results in consolidation of wealth among a few. This is why per capita income is such a farcical measure. If you remove the top 10% of the American population and calculate per capita income, it drops by half as the top 10% own close to 50% of the wealth. In China the Gini is worse.

All you have with massive manufacturing base is a few really really wealthy industrialists and a millions of very lowly paid, disgruntled workforce in monotonous manufacturing jobs. The situation in China is further exasperated by the fact that 70% of that workforce is migratory and hence their quality of life is naturally worse off even without considering the hukou system.

All this still does not discount the fact that it is essential that we are a self sufficient manufacturing nation, capable of meeting our consumer needs and also an export surplus. But it should not be targeted from the perspective of establishing it as the main source of labor for our young population.

Just a sidenote: One of the things that scares the CCP shitless is that in 1989 Tienanmen, the urban population was still only half of what it is today. Imagine the next Tienanmen. Hopefully there are enough political and economic reforms to never reach that stage but I cannot see the CCP capable of such reform.

 

[s002wjh]

Your points are moot. All three things you stated can be developed. China had jack shit 30 years back. Whatever you setup you set it up in the last 3 decades. Dont talk like those things are some inherent qualities that no one else can acquire.

That said,

I would prefer we do not become a manufacturing lead economy. It would be in our society's interests to make sure that manufacturing stays below 40% of overall GDP. It would also be in our interests to ensure that the urban:rural population ratio stays 40:60 and never more. The right path would be to create a sustainable highly developed rural economy with micro supply chains.

To elaborate, we should try not to become a skewed economy like the US where an average meal travels 2000 miles before it reaches the plate of the end consumer. This is a result of massive farm consolidation and corporate farming. There is no local economy in the US and China is heading in exactly the same direction. In the short term this results in huge cost gains, in the long term it results in consolidation of wealth among a few. This is why per capita income is such a farcical measure. If you remove the top 10% of the American population and calculate per capita income, it drops by half as the top 10% own close to 50% of the wealth. In China the Gini is worse.

All you have with massive manufacturing base is a few really really wealthy industrialists and a millions of very lowly paid, disgruntled workforce in monotonous manufacturing jobs. The situation in China is further exasperated by the fact that 70% of that workforce is migratory and hence their quality of life is naturally worse off even without considering the hukou system.

All this still does not discount the fact that it is essential that we are a self sufficient manufacturing nation, capable of meeting our consumer needs and also an export surplus. But it should not be targeted from the perspective of establishing it as the main source of labor for our young population.

Just a sidenote: One of the things that scares the CCP shitless is that in 1989 Tienanmen, the urban population was still only half of what it is today. Imagine the next Tienanmen. Hopefully there are enough political and economic reforms to never reach that stage but I cannot see the CCP capable of such reform.

yes infrastructure can be build, manufacture can be build, worker can be trainned. but at present rate, can india train most their worker, build modern airport, transporation etc etc, so foreign coporation has the incentive to move their supply chain to india? its not something you just say, i'm building and trainning, and get it done in few years. it require decades, and india has to convince its population in order to upgrade its infrastructure, trains its worker, manage financial for these project efficentially with minium corruption etc. did you ever think about why west outsource their manufacture job to china, not india in the first place? both were poor in 80's, china has much less infrastructure, poorer than india back then.


you base on things like if/imagine next tianmen, which is unlikely to happen due to economy situation in china. despite western media, majority of chinese are optimistic and look forward to improve their live even more.


if you look raise of ANY country, manufacture is the base for all these countries. most innovation/technology were developed during manufacture stage. furthermore china is pursing innovation/domestic market and start to shift away from low-end manufacture jobs. china won't stuck at making other peoples product forever, best example is japan, S.korean, both start with low-quality/cheap product consider by west in 60-70, 80-90s, and become top tier economic power later on. china is continually evolving, if there aren't any major issues in china for the next 10-20yrs, and they stick to their plan., then 20 yrs from now china will be much different.

as far as local farm/econmy etc. i live in ohio, i can say there are ALOT farms that grow variety of farm goods. i don't know about the gap in india, but per GDP in US is still good, the rich-poor gap here is increasing, but still better than almost anywhere. also there are tons of small company in US that help local economy.

chinese migrate move because thats where the money is, simple as that.

 

[trackwhack]

yes infrastructure can be build, manufacture can be build, worker can be trainned. but at present rate, can india train most their worker, build modern airport, transporation etc etc, so foreign coporation has the incentive to move their supply chain to india? its not something you just say, i'm building and trainning, and get it done in few years. it require decades, and india has to convince its population in order to upgrade its infrastructure, trains its worker, manage financial for these project efficentially with minium corruption etc. did you ever think about why west outsource their manufacture job to china, not india in the first place? both were poor in 80's, china has much less infrastructure, poorer than india back then.


you base on things like if/imagine next tianmen, which is unlikely to happen due to economy situation in china. despite western media, majority of chinese are optimistic and look forward to improve their live even more.


if you look raise of ANY country, manufacture is the base for all these countries. most innovation/technology were developed during manufacture stage. furthermore china is pursing innovation/domestic market and start to shift away from low-end manufacture jobs. china won't stuck at making other peoples product forever, best example is japan, S.korean, both start with low-quality/cheap product consider by west in 60-70, 80-90s, and become top tier economic power later on. china is continually evolving, if there aren't any major issues in china for the next 10-20yrs, and they stick to their plan., then 20 yrs from now china will be much different.

Your post is so filled with non-sense that I just dont have the time to refute it. have fun with yourself. :cool2:

 

[s002wjh]

Your post is so filled with non-sense that I just dont have the time to refute it. have fun with yourself. :cool2:

right thats your argument.

 

[trackwhack]

right thats your argument.

yes, I need to preserve my sanity.

 

[Rahul92]

Rahul I like your avatar Shelly

Looks like lot of Big bang theory fans

 

[s002wjh]

yes, I need to preserve my sanity.

nope seem like you can't find contrary reason to support your claim. so you use the typical words such as non-sense etc.

 

[trackwhack]

nope seem like you can't find contrary reason to support your claim. so you use the typical words such as non-sense etc.

Your entire posts revolves around China has managed all this and India cannot. So get lost. Your assumptions are bull, so no point responding.

 

[s002wjh]

Your entire posts revolves around China has managed all this

and India cannot. So get lost. Your assumptions are bull, so no point responding.

my original post was about population alone will not overtake china manufacture jobs. you said everything can be build, and i said, its not that easy to build it, take time etc. now i judge countries base on previous stuff they done. if countries, not just india able to build large project within reasonable time limit, train workers on large scale within time limite before, then yes i would belief that country can build, train their labor force, supply chain etc etc in the future. if i build a house then i would hired an experenced contrator with plenty history for the job. corporation not only looking for masivie cheap labor, but more important they are looking for skilled cheap labor and infrastructure to support the manufacture sector. so whoever the next china will be, they need to convince those western coporation to move their manufacture from china to their country. there are plenty places that have cheap labor compare to china, and yet most company still keep their factories in china. its because china has such large manufacture base, infrastructure to support it, decent skill worker, and most corporation's supply chain are in china.

 

[trackwhack]

my original post was about population alone will not overtake china manufacture jobs. you said everything can be build, and i said, its not that easy to build it, take time etc. now i judge countries base on previous stuff they done. if countries, not just india able to build large project within reasonable time limit, train workers on large scale within time limite before, then yes i would belief that country can build, train their labor force, supply chain etc etc in the future. if i build a house then i would hired an experenced contrator with plenty history for the job. corporation not only looking for masivie cheap labor, but more important they are looking for skilled cheap labor and infrastructure to support the manufacture sector. so whoever the next china will be, they need to convince those western coporation to move their manufacture from china to their country. there are plenty places that have cheap labor compare to china, and yet most company still keep their factories in china. its because china has such large manufacture base, infrastructure to support it, decent skill worker, and most corporation's supply chain are in china.

If we judge countries by previous stuff they have done, then we should only judge China by the cultural revolutions and the great leap forward. So like i said, your assumptions are stupid, your posts are full of non-sense.

Stop chiding yourself on a 30 year uptick in China. Its not like you rule the world and its not like your 'success' cannot be emulated if we are willing to pay the price you paid. India will make it, and without paying the price of freedom while getting there. go play schoolboy somewhere else.

 

[no smoking]

If we judge countries by previous stuff they have done, then we should only judge China by the cultural revolutions and the great leap forward. So like i said, your assumptions are stupid, your posts are full of non-sense.

Your word prove his point exactly. The cultural revolutions and great leap proved to be a big disaster, but these two also shows CCP's ability to organise society and carrying on the big public plans, the only problem was that their goals were wrong from the beginning. This kind of execute ability is one of core things in industrilization. India government, however, hasn't proved their ability yet.

Stop chiding yourself on a 30 year uptick in China. Its not like you rule the world and its not like your 'success' cannot be emulated if we are willing to pay the price you paid. India will make it, and without paying the price of freedom while getting there. go play schoolboy somewhere else.

The question is HOW. India has all these potential for decades, but so far all these advantages will remain as potential.

 

[s002wjh]

If we judge countries by previous stuff they have done, then we should only judge China by the cultural revolutions and the great leap forward. So like i said, your assumptions are stupid, your posts are full of non-sense.

Stop chiding yourself on a 30 year uptick in China. Its not like you rule the world and its not like your 'success' cannot be emulated if we are willing to pay the price you paid. India will make it, and without paying the price of freedom while getting there. go play schoolboy somewhere else.

i'm not even chinese, i'm an asian-american, live in US for 25yrs. i went to china for vaction and other things, everytime i went there, there are huge changes. peoples salary is raising, modern airport etc etc.

if you said india can make it, i would say action speak louder than words. words is cheap, and as my co-worker said, stuff coming from mouth just like asshole, everyone has one.

if you look at all great power today, they all have good overall education,skill force, manufacture, and infrastructure. india has alot smart people but its only few % of total population. so if any country want to take over china's manufacture jobs then they need to train their workers, infrastructure to support the manufacture, supply chain etc, especially in high tech, electronic industry etc

china is in transition similart to japan after wwii, S.korea after korean war. all these country start with manufacture then move to innovation etc, true for japan, S.korea, and US.

Innovative china is emerging.

(CNN) -- Travel to Shekou, a port city in Shenzhen, and you will find the stirrings of something unexpected: entrepreneurial capitalism.

This part of China, home to many mega-factories like those of Foxconn (which makes Apple's iPads) is known as the world's workshop. But if you visit Microport, a startup firm funded by venture capital, you will find a group of tech entrepreneurs with a global mindset trying to disrupt an overpriced, legacy-ridden industry (in their case, the one for medical diagnostics equipment). In the staff canteen hangs a portrait of the late Steve Jobs uttering his motto, "Stay hungry, stay foolish." Microport's dynamic founder says his dream is for China to become an innovation powerhouse that produces its own homegrown Apple.

Much has been made about Chinese sweatshops sucking away American jobs, of currency manipulation and unfair trade practices. In fact, there's a bigger threat to American competitiveness.

Cheap China is fading fast, and innovative China is emerging. The Chinese government is investing tens of billions of dollars into science and engineering research and education, and lavishing tax breaks and subsidies on technology firms and clusters, in an effort to leapfrog the country to the cutting edge of innovation.


How should America and other developed economies respond and stay on top in the 21st century's ideas economy? For a start, do no harm. Politicians should remember that global innovation is not a zero-sum game: China's rise does not have to come at America's expense. Three decades ago, many Cassandras wailed that Japan, with its centrally planned innovation investments and its superior cultural values, would crush the West. In fact, Japan's peaceful rise went hand in hand with America's entrepreneurs forging the new industries of the digital age.

That is why bashing China and using it as an excuse for industrial policies that subsidize uncompetitive domestic companies is a folly. This applies as much to Solyndra, a bankrupt American solar firm that got taxpayer subsidies, as it does to the lagging French toymaking industry, which has been declared "strategic."


An even more dangerous prospect is a trade war, something that might happen as a result of Western governments ganging up on China at the World Trade Organization over its policies on rare Earth minerals. Top-down efforts to pick technology winners are bound to waste taxpayers' money. And forcing a trade war would actually hurt America, since its economy benefits the most from an open global flow of goods, people and ideas.

America's leaders should see China's inexorable surge as a rising tide that can lift all boats—providing, of course, that you patch the holes in your vessel first. That means shoring up the things that made America the world's innovation powerhouse in the first place.

First, America needs to reverse its policies that, since 9/11, have turned hostile toward talented immigrants. For decades, the American economy benefited from the gift of the world's brightest and most enterprising. Studies have shown that more than a third of the start-ups in Silicon Valley have at least one founder born in India or China.

Bill Gates points out the absurdity of today's immigration policies. Brilliant Chinese students make up much of the graduate program in computer science at the University of California at Berkeley, benefiting from a subsidized education. When they graduate and want to start companies that would hire many Americans, they are refused visas. So, as Gates notes, they go home and start companies there that compete with America instead.

Another hole that needs to be patched is in research funding. America's funding for research, measured as a percent of national output, has stagnated even as the rising giants of the developing world are investing heavily. It is wise to invest during economic recessions in those few things—like education, smart infrastructure and research—that are the essential enablers of longer term innovation, productivity and higher economic growth.

Finally, America can make it easier for young firms, which have created almost all the net new jobs the last few decades, to find capital. Banks usually refuse to fund start-ups, and even many venture capitalists have turned risk averse. Typically, entrepreneurs rely on friends, family and fools. But an important bill in Congress now that has support from both parties and the White House would make it easier to tap wider networks through "crowdfunding." Congress should pass this bill quickly, and help entrepreneurial energy to kick-start growth.

The surest path from stagnation to rejuvenation lies in innovation. If America wants to stay at the top, it needs to gear up on innovation.