iNorthernerOn9
Senior Member
- Joined
- Jun 17, 2021
- Messages
- 1,403
- Likes
- 16,362
LONG READ (Must read)
What both India & the US are now facing are STRATEGIC INEVITABILITIES, i.e. ground realities that are dictated by the evolving environment & the tyranny of geography. For example, there are now 3 contiguous countries all claiming to represent the true virtues of Islam: Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of Iran & Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Will they engage in competitive bench-marking? Of course, because each of the 3 represent 3 different types of ideological & theocratic schools of thought on sectarian Sunni/Shia lines. This represents the greatest destabilising threat to the immediate neighbourhood & to the respective Muslim communities at large. In India, therefore, this now manifesting itself in greater global & domestic attention being drawn to Deoband, whose teachings the Taliban & its Pakistani supporters abide by. Obviously this represents another tectonic calamity of sorts for India’s Muslim populace & hence early attempts are being made by Naseeruddin Shah to educate his ‘Qaum’ by reading the writing on the wall. At the regional level, a centralised Afghan Islamic Emirate will claim to represent the true interests of Islam & thus will begin a spate of competitive benchmarking between Afghanistan, Iran & Pakistan on who is the good, better & best Muslim. The Taliban will also claim that it is best-suited to realise & establish the dream of the mythical Islamic paradise of Khorasan throughout Central Asia (which will bring into direct conflict with Russia & the CARs), while Turkey will claim that since the last Caliphate was Turkey-led, the future Caliphate too ought to be Turkey-led. Pakistan will claim that since the Arab Muslims first set foot beyond the Arabian peninsula in Sindh (Mohd bin Qasim), Pakistan is host to the world’s maximum numbers of ‘Pirs’ (those that trace their lineage to the Holy Prophet’s family). This in turn will lead to religiosity-inspired ideological feuds between Afghanistan, Turkey & Pakistan, while on the external front it will make Iran more jittery about the rise of a potent Sunni EMIRATE right at its doorstep.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia & the UAE, who have invested a lot over the years to liberalise & shed their age-old orthodox religiosity-inspired sentiments, will be most unwelcoming about the existence of three such ‘Islamic’ entities & thus they will be more interested in focussing on the CARs with India’s & Russia’s assistance & support. They along with Egypt, Oman & Algeria will also remain deeply suspicious about the activities of Qatar & Turkey inside the Afghan Emirate.
At the financial/economic/administrative levels, The Taliban cannot be expected to gain experience in public administration & governance even over the next 6 months as it is just an uneducated irregular warfare outfit & hence Afghanistan will see intensive domestic turmoil. To make matters worse, donor countries have only PLEGDED humanitarian assistance, but have NOT transferred any money to any bank account. If, as expected, the countries decide to spend the money only through UN agencies like the WFP, then this process will take 3 months to fructify, by which time there will be acute scarcity of foodgrains, pulses, sugar & tea within Afghanistan. This in turn will cause the local population to en masse rise up in protest against the ruling Taliban dispensation by early next month. In addition, the number of refugees swelling up at all the border CIQ checkposts bordering the CARs, Iran & Pakistan will increase to uncontrollable levels, leading to likely bloodbaths. Neither Turkey nor Qatar will be willing to accept such refugees & this then will further increase ill-will against Ankara & Doha among the average Afghans.
The Taliban dispensation in Kabul will try its best to tide over the popular unrest by trying play (it has already begun) psychological games, i.e. blaming Pakistan for all the woes of Afghanistan & will publicly take an anti-Pakistan stance especially WRT Durand Line
, since this is most likely to go well with the great majority of Afghan citizens, as they are already convinced that the Taliban came to power only with Pakistan’s active support. But this too will not be enough to assuage the angry Afghan populace. This then brings us to the likely course of events next year, especially military options which the US & India have the option of exercising. Six months is enough time for for the 2 countries to come up with a single integrated operational plan (SIOP) under which India would launch a limited 20-day AirLand campaign aimed at driving Pakistan out of Gilgit-Baltistan & achieving geographic contiguity with north-eastern Afghanistan via the Wakhan Corridor & the China-occupied Shaksgam Valley. China’s PLAGF, as past events have already shown, remains incapable of & unwilling to engage in high-altitude warfare & the Western Theatre Command’s (WTC) command-n-control hierarchy remains in a mess, as evidenced by three successive reshuffles of the WTC’s command hierarchy over the past 16 months.
What both India & the US are now facing are STRATEGIC INEVITABILITIES, i.e. ground realities that are dictated by the evolving environment & the tyranny of geography. For example, there are now 3 contiguous countries all claiming to represent the true virtues of Islam: Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of Iran & Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Will they engage in competitive bench-marking? Of course, because each of the 3 represent 3 different types of ideological & theocratic schools of thought on sectarian Sunni/Shia lines. This represents the greatest destabilising threat to the immediate neighbourhood & to the respective Muslim communities at large. In India, therefore, this now manifesting itself in greater global & domestic attention being drawn to Deoband, whose teachings the Taliban & its Pakistani supporters abide by. Obviously this represents another tectonic calamity of sorts for India’s Muslim populace & hence early attempts are being made by Naseeruddin Shah to educate his ‘Qaum’ by reading the writing on the wall. At the regional level, a centralised Afghan Islamic Emirate will claim to represent the true interests of Islam & thus will begin a spate of competitive benchmarking between Afghanistan, Iran & Pakistan on who is the good, better & best Muslim. The Taliban will also claim that it is best-suited to realise & establish the dream of the mythical Islamic paradise of Khorasan throughout Central Asia (which will bring into direct conflict with Russia & the CARs), while Turkey will claim that since the last Caliphate was Turkey-led, the future Caliphate too ought to be Turkey-led. Pakistan will claim that since the Arab Muslims first set foot beyond the Arabian peninsula in Sindh (Mohd bin Qasim), Pakistan is host to the world’s maximum numbers of ‘Pirs’ (those that trace their lineage to the Holy Prophet’s family). This in turn will lead to religiosity-inspired ideological feuds between Afghanistan, Turkey & Pakistan, while on the external front it will make Iran more jittery about the rise of a potent Sunni EMIRATE right at its doorstep.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia & the UAE, who have invested a lot over the years to liberalise & shed their age-old orthodox religiosity-inspired sentiments, will be most unwelcoming about the existence of three such ‘Islamic’ entities & thus they will be more interested in focussing on the CARs with India’s & Russia’s assistance & support. They along with Egypt, Oman & Algeria will also remain deeply suspicious about the activities of Qatar & Turkey inside the Afghan Emirate.
At the financial/economic/administrative levels, The Taliban cannot be expected to gain experience in public administration & governance even over the next 6 months as it is just an uneducated irregular warfare outfit & hence Afghanistan will see intensive domestic turmoil. To make matters worse, donor countries have only PLEGDED humanitarian assistance, but have NOT transferred any money to any bank account. If, as expected, the countries decide to spend the money only through UN agencies like the WFP, then this process will take 3 months to fructify, by which time there will be acute scarcity of foodgrains, pulses, sugar & tea within Afghanistan. This in turn will cause the local population to en masse rise up in protest against the ruling Taliban dispensation by early next month. In addition, the number of refugees swelling up at all the border CIQ checkposts bordering the CARs, Iran & Pakistan will increase to uncontrollable levels, leading to likely bloodbaths. Neither Turkey nor Qatar will be willing to accept such refugees & this then will further increase ill-will against Ankara & Doha among the average Afghans.
The Taliban dispensation in Kabul will try its best to tide over the popular unrest by trying play (it has already begun) psychological games, i.e. blaming Pakistan for all the woes of Afghanistan & will publicly take an anti-Pakistan stance especially WRT Durand Line
, since this is most likely to go well with the great majority of Afghan citizens, as they are already convinced that the Taliban came to power only with Pakistan’s active support. But this too will not be enough to assuage the angry Afghan populace. This then brings us to the likely course of events next year, especially military options which the US & India have the option of exercising. Six months is enough time for for the 2 countries to come up with a single integrated operational plan (SIOP) under which India would launch a limited 20-day AirLand campaign aimed at driving Pakistan out of Gilgit-Baltistan & achieving geographic contiguity with north-eastern Afghanistan via the Wakhan Corridor & the China-occupied Shaksgam Valley. China’s PLAGF, as past events have already shown, remains incapable of & unwilling to engage in high-altitude warfare & the Western Theatre Command’s (WTC) command-n-control hierarchy remains in a mess, as evidenced by three successive reshuffles of the WTC’s command hierarchy over the past 16 months.
Last edited:
