India in Afghanistan - regional diplomacy and interests after US withdrawal.

samsaptaka

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What both India & the US are now facing are STRATEGIC INEVITABILITIES, i.e. ground realities that are dictated by the evolving environment & the tyranny of geography. For example, there are now 3 contiguous countries all claiming to represent the true virtues of Islam: Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of Iran & Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Will they engage in competitive bench-marking? Of course, because each of the 3 represent 3 different types of ideological & theocratic schools of thought on sectarian Sunni/Shia lines. This represents the greatest destabilising threat to the immediate neighbourhood & to the respective Muslim communities at large. In India, therefore, this now manifesting itself in greater global & domestic attention being drawn to Deoband, whose teachings the Taliban & its Pakistani supporters abide by. Obviously this represents another tectonic calamity of sorts for India’s Muslim populace & hence early attempts are being made by Naseeruddin Shah to educate his ‘Qaum’ by reading the writing on the wall. At the regional level, a centralised Afghan Islamic Emirate will claim to represent the true interests of Islam & thus will begin a spate of competitive benchmarking between Afghanistan, Iran & Pakistan on who is the good, better & best Muslim. The Taliban will also claim that it is best-suited to realise & establish the dream of the mythical Islamic paradise of Khorasan throughout Central Asia (which will bring into direct conflict with Russia & the CARs), while Turkey will claim that since the last Caliphate was Turkey-led, the future Caliphate too ought to be Turkey-led. Pakistan will claim that since the Arab Muslims first set foot beyond the Arabian peninsula in Sindh (Mohd bin Qasim), Pakistan is host to the world’s maximum numbers of ‘Pirs’ (those that trace their lineage to the Holy Prophet’s family). This in turn will lead to religiosity-inspired ideological feuds between Afghanistan, Turkey & Pakistan, while on the external front it will make Iran more jittery about the rise of a potent Sunni EMIRATE right at its doorstep.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia & the UAE, who have invested a lot over the years to liberalise & shed their age-old orthodox religiosity-inspired sentiments, will be most unwelcoming about the existence of three such ‘Islamic’ entities & thus they will be more interested in focussing on the CARs with India’s & Russia’s assistance & support. They along with Egypt, Oman & Algeria will also remain deeply suspicious about the activities of Qatar & Turkey inside the Afghan Emirate.

At the financial/economic/administrative levels, The Taliban cannot be expected to gain experience in public administration & governance even over the next 6 months as it is just an uneducated irregular warfare outfit & hence Afghanistan will see intensive domestic turmoil. To make matters worse, donor countries have only PLEGDED humanitarian assistance, but have NOT transferred any money to any bank account. If, as expected, the countries decide to spend the money only through UN agencies like the WFP, then this process will take 3 months to fructify, by which time there will be acute scarcity of foodgrains, pulses, sugar & tea within Afghanistan. This in turn will cause the local population to en masse rise up in protest against the ruling Taliban dispensation by early next month. In addition, the number of refugees swelling up at all the border CIQ checkposts bordering the CARs, Iran & Pakistan will increase to uncontrollable levels, leading to likely bloodbaths. Neither Turkey nor Qatar will be willing to accept such refugees & this then will further increase ill-will against Ankara & Doha among the average Afghans.

The Taliban dispensation in Kabul will try its best to tide over the popular unrest by trying play (it has already begun) psychological games, i.e. blaming Pakistan for all the woes of Afghanistan & will publicly take an anti-Pakistan stance especially WRT Durand Line:playball:, since this is most likely to go well with the great majority of Afghan citizens, as they are already convinced that the Taliban came to power only with Pakistan’s active support. But this too will not be enough to assuage the angry Afghan populace. This then brings us to the likely course of events next year, especially military options which the US & India have the option of exercising. Six months is enough time for for the 2 countries to come up with a single integrated operational plan (SIOP) under which India would launch a limited 20-day AirLand campaign aimed at driving Pakistan out of Gilgit-Baltistan & achieving geographic contiguity with north-eastern Afghanistan via the Wakhan Corridor & the China-occupied Shaksgam Valley. China’s PLAGF, as past events have already shown, remains incapable of & unwilling to engage in high-altitude warfare & the Western Theatre Command’s (WTC) command-n-control hierarchy remains in a mess, as evidenced by three successive reshuffles of the WTC’s command hierarchy over the past 16 months.
US will no longer be interested in Afg except to assassinate HVTs who might target US soil. Whatever happens to the larger region and the geo politics here will not concern them I think. So now it's our problem alone and maybe a little bit for Russia.
 

Srinivas_K

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Since Ismail Khan is in Iran, does this mean, Iran is backing the resistance ? Things will be more clear after a while..
It is not one country, things will be clear in the coming few months.

I think the Afghan civil society becomes stronger and get their rights.
 

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US will no longer be interested in Afg except to assassinate HVTs who might target US soil. Whatever happens to the larger region and the geo politics here will not concern them I think. So now it's our problem alone and maybe a little bit for Russia.
Yes.. and the drone strikes kill the wrong targets most of the times like in the case of Kabul drone strike that killed 7 children, and an aid worker, who was allegedly an ISIS terrorist as per muricans.. The lack of on the ground intelligence, makes US drones strikes in the future far less accurate than they used to be.. So, these drone strikes might take out some HVT occasionally, but there are enough caves and tunnel networks in Afghanistan to avoid those drones.. So, drones won't have any meaningful impact unless the US resurrects some proxy on the ground who can challenge the Taliban

The US craves this drone option, just to feel that they have some/any control w.r.t the situation in Afghanistan..
 

ezsasa

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CNN is in Islamabad interviewing Niazi to do damage control to paki reputation.
===========
“So come 2001, George Bush asked Pakistan to help, and he famously said "We will not abandon Pakistan again". Pakistan joined the US war in #Afghanistan. Was I the prime minister? I would never have done that” said #Pakistan PM @ImranKhanPTI during our exclusive interview.

 

rock127

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Breaking newwwwj! Today 7 Paki soldiers butchered like pigs :pig: :flypig: from some FREEDOM FIGHTERS in Waziristan! TTP Freedom Fighters took responsibility! :yey:

Satrateegick Daaapth! These Paki soldiers are under 6 feet of Satrateegick Daaapth! :rip:

They went after some TTP Freedom Fighters hideout but instead got their ass handed over quickly! :lol: Now as per Pakis, they have uprooted all Raaaawjesh :spy: agents and no Indian is there. Who are Pakis going to blame now? So either they are lying or our Uncle Raaawjesh :spy: is very STRONK and owns ISI!


Just 2 months ago 20 Paki pigs butchered by Baloch Freedom Fighters! TTP and BLA are playing This seems like a FFL(Freedom Fighters League) against Pak Army! Tag team :tea: of all Freedom Fighters who wants freedom from Pakjabis! Their batting average(killing avg) is 2 Paki Army pigs a day since last few months and few Chinese every second week!



1631718871132.png
 
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Lost user

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CNN is in Islamabad interviewing Niazi to do damage control to paki reputation.
===========
“So come 2001, George Bush asked Pakistan to help, and he famously said "We will not abandon Pakistan again". Pakistan joined the US war in #Afghanistan. Was I the prime minister? I would never have done that” said #Pakistan PM @ImranKhanPTI during our exclusive interview.

Pakistan has pretty good lobbyists.. Yesterday there was senate hearing and today, Imran Khan is on an interview denying that Pakistan did any wrong..
 

Lost user

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Breaking newwwwj! Today 7 Paki soldiers butchered like pigs :pig: :flypig: from some FREEDOM FIGHTERS in Waziristan! TTP Freedom Fighters took responsibility! :yey:

Satrateegick Daaapth! These Paki soldiers are under 6 feet of Satrateegick Daaapth! :rip:

Now as per Pakis, they have uprooted all Raaaawjesh :spy: agents and no Indian is there. Who are Pakis going to blame now? So either they are lying or our Uncle Raaawjesh :spy: is very STRONK and owns ISI!


Just 2 months ago 20 Paki pigs butchered by Baloch Freedom Fighters! TTP and BLA are playing This seems like a FFL(Freedom Fighters League) against Pak Army! Tag team :tea: of all Freedom Fighters who wants freedom from Pakjabis! Their batting average(killing avg) is 2 Paki Army pigs a day since last few months and few Chinese every second week!



View attachment 110265
If US wants to have any say on what goes on in Afghanistan, and to kill anti US terrorists in Afghanistan.. Then, it has to impose draconian sanctions on Pakistan, and damage its ability to play empire in Afghanistan.. Once, that happens various CIA allied groups can become operational again in Afghanistan.. Never allow the Taliban to settle..
 

Lost user

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Pakistan has pretty good lobbyists.. Yesterday there was senate hearing and today, Imran Khan is on an interview denying that Pakistan did any wrong..
One thing I noticed in the interview.. the swagger and the self confidence from previous interviews is missing.. Imran is a little worried..
 

doreamon

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Pakistan has pretty good lobbyists.. Yesterday there was senate hearing and today, Imran Khan is on an interview denying that Pakistan did any wrong..
Despite all those it surprise me how we were able to sign a nuclear agreement in 2004 when we were not that big .. coming out of sanction for nuclear test of 1998 .. It was during the time when war on terror alliance in Afghanistan was on full swing .. Salute to those who were involved and made it possible ..
 

samsaptaka

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Yes.. and the drone strikes kill the wrong targets most of the times like in the case of Kabul drone strike that killed 7 children, and an aid worker, who was allegedly an ISIS terrorist as per muricans.. The lack of on the ground intelligence, makes US drones strikes in the future far less accurate than they used to be.. So, these drone strikes might take out some HVT occasionally, but there are enough caves and tunnel networks in Afghanistan to avoid those drones.. So, drones won't have any meaningful impact unless the US resurrects some proxy on the ground who can challenge the Taliban

The US craves this drone option, just to feel that they have some/any control w.r.t the situation in Afghanistan..
I think you didn't get the point of my argument. The OP said in the future US and Bharath face an inevitable problem of the terrorists from pak+taliban etc... I said that the problem is that of Bharath alone and not of US , because the US has exited and will have minimal interest in tackling this problem except for assassinating HVTs who may carry out an attack on US assets. now how they go about assassinating the HVTs could be either through drones or boots on the ground through SF or both. but my point is their interest in this region will be limited to that.
 

Srinivas_K

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Pakistan has pretty good lobbyists.. Yesterday there was senate hearing and today, Imran Khan is on an interview denying that Pakistan did any wrong..
There is solid evidence of Pakistani involvement as per NRF. There stories will come out soon.
 

Srinivas_K

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CNN is in Islamabad interviewing Niazi to do damage control to paki reputation.
===========
“So come 2001, George Bush asked Pakistan to help, and he famously said "We will not abandon Pakistan again". Pakistan joined the US war in #Afghanistan. Was I the prime minister? I would never have done that” said #Pakistan PM @ImranKhanPTI during our exclusive interview.

All the while their JIhadi and terrorist factories are running their show in Afghanistan and trying to destabilize India.

He is playing the same game what Pakistan is playing all these years.

First they export terrorists, destabilize other countries, give threats to make sure their demands are met and when the blow back comes they play victim card.

nothing new, this happened in the past and this will happen in the future.
 

HitmanBlood

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Despite all those it surprise me how we were able to sign a nuclear agreement in 2004 when we were not that big .. coming out of sanction for nuclear test of 1998 .. It was during the time when war on terror alliance in Afghanistan was on full swing .. Salute to those who were involved and made it possible ..
Differences between our diplomacy and Pakistan is we don't shout from rooftop. What Niyazi is doing on CNN is called desperation not diplomacy.
 

HitmanBlood

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All the while their JIhadi and terrorist factories are running their show in Afghanistan and trying to destabilize India.

He is playing the same game what Pakistan is playing all these years.

First they export terrorists, destabilize other countries, give threats to make sure their demands are met and when the blow back comes they play victim card.

nothing new, this happened in the past and this will happen in the future.
He is doing Taqiyya.

images.jpeg
 

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