India in Afghanistan - regional diplomacy and interests after US withdrawal.

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This picture is an exaggeration.. When the Taliban's father, the Pakistan Army itself, does not have complete control over various Taliban factions, with Pakistan Taliban factions, killing Pak Army guys on a regular basis.. Its just that China and Russia are rattled by the turn of events in Afghanistan, after US withdrawal, and just want to ensure that sh*t does not fly their way, as it has already hit the fan.
 

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India se zyada Russia China ka gaand phat raha hain...
As long as Americans were in Afghanistan, all the Jihadi anger was directed towards US.. With US vacating the Jihadis will now seek a new target viz. Xinjiang, Central asia, and ultimately Russia's Muslim majority provinces in the south viz. Chechnya,Dagestan, Ingushetia, Tatarstan etc....
I like it.. I like it..:daru:
 
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Tupac slayer

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India is irrelevant here, going against India, India can't do anything that's why now we see India negotiating with the Talibans, UN eco embargo isn't happening... bloddy Chinese alone will make sure to buy the most of the resources along with the rest of the needed...

And sure the fucking sharia is coming back whether we like it or not....West or India can't do anything on it
I would like your Honesty in assessing situation rather than going by Jingoistic nationalism, Every Indian member in Defenceforumindia.com should know Afghan War was lost in 2002 When George W Bush Administration refused to strike Pakistan via drones in early 2002, We need to know certain things Musharaff 2003 Ceasefire plan was a temproary plot, because II STRIKE CORPS OF PAKISTAN ARMY COMITTED SOME OF ITS FORMATIONS for COIN Operations, members should read more about Operation Rah E Nijat ( Invasion of South Waziristan) and Operation Zarb E AZB from neutral sources rather than reading from wikipedia or neighbor forum. For Operation Rah E Nijat , an assessment written by Sameer Lakhwani is best to read, on Operation Zarb E azb we can read it in IDSA. When Mushraff came crawling for ceasefire in 2003, we should have some thought, atleast some of us in strategic community? Both was missing.


National Security Council of George W Bush Administration thought that they can gain a quick victory in Iraq using over whelming firepower and then engage duplicity of Pakistan in War against Terrorism later. Rumsfeld was Arrogant and was living in own Gaga Land where he thought Iraqis would fight as per his wishes. Iraq War dragged till 2006, until Robert Gates was sworn in as Secretary of Defense, Gates kept Afghan front on Hold till 2009 and Increased troops level in Iraq. Through which Americans were able to gain at least Iraq rather than losing it.
 

Tupac slayer

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India se zyada Russia China ka gaand phat raha hain...
As long as Americans were in Afghanistan, all the Jihadi anger was directed towards US.. With US vacating the Jihadis will now seek a new target viz. Xinjiang, Central asia, and ultimately Russia's Muslim majority provinces in the south viz. Chechnya,Dagestan, Ingushetia, Tatarstan etc....
I like it.. I like it..:daru:

You are forgetting certain things, Jihadists show their bravery only against Democracies, Jihadists know their place against autocratic nations, you think Taliban will encourage Jihadists to attack Xiniang, you are living in own Gaga Land. Jihadists very well know How Russians responded to terror attack from Chechanya? How china will respond for attacks in Xiniang, Jihadists knew very well no amount of tauqiyya will deter retations from China or Russia? ( personal note: I am not an admirer of China, but certainly we need to learn some of their tactics in combatting terrorism)
 

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Afghanistan has $4 trillions worth natural resources and is a potential gateway between Central Asia, Middle east, East Asia and Indian subcontinent.

Hadn't Pakistan created Taliban causing civil war and millions of deaths, the fate of Afghanistan would have been different today.

$ 4 Trillions? can you please explain? If Afghanistan contained above quoted value of minerals? US would not have left Afghanistan! Please I beg you, Don't Exaggerate the Importance of Afghanistan, POK is important, Portion of Afghanistan, Portion of Afghanistan which connects Tajikistan is Important.

One thing I love about President Obama was he was realistic in his approach, He certainly guessed Pakistan right more than any President, deep in his heart he knew what Pakistan would do? That's why he established a realistic time table about Afghan War? Obama withdrew Troops as early as 2013 to focus on Pacific.

Taliban is not an organization its about ideology, Please note that you can defeat organizations easily, you cant defeat Ideology so easily, To defeat certain Ideologies, you need to be autocratic ( note: I dont support communism)

Additional Information: Cost of extracting above mentioned value of minerals will out number value of minerals in Terms of troops deployment, protection of workers, securing logistics for workers. Most of the Afghanistan unlike Iraq is not connected by Roads, Iraq for all the violence against foreign troops still has got good infrastructure unlike Afghanistan. Many people might wonder, How Americans were able to stay in Iraq despite more violence unleashed by Abu Musab Al Zarqawi and Co? were not able to stay in Afghanistan? its simple? Its because of Cost benefit analysis.
 
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You are forgetting certain things, Jihadists show their bravery only against Democracies, Jihadists know their place against autocratic nations, you think Taliban will encourage Jihadists to attack Xiniang, you are living in own Gaga Land. Jihadists very well know How Russians responded to terror attack from Chechanya? How china will respond for attacks in Xiniang, Jihadists knew very well no amount of tauqiyya will deter retations from China or Russia? ( personal note: I am not an admirer of China, but certainly we need to learn some of their tactics in combatting terrorism)
Jihadists show their bravery only against democracies.. ? What are you high on..
There have been major terror attacks and jihadi driven wars and insurgencies in Syria, in Pakistan, in Iran.. So, you are saying that Syria, Pakistan and Iran are democracies ? The only mileage jihadis have against democracies viz. A viz. Security states like Pakistan, Russia or China, is that a democratic state often spends far more effort and money to neutralize a threat..as it has to navigate so many more internal road blocks..
The Taliban need not sponsor attacks against China or Central Asia.. The Afghan terrain is such that Taliban can never have total control over all of Afghanistan.. and assorted jihadis from central asia, Pakistan, Xinjiang, Chechenya are already part of Taliban and are shedding blood on the Taliban's behalf.. So, just as Taliban continues to have a relationship with AL qaeda, inspite of so much pain it had go through following US invasion of Afghanistan.. the fact remains that Taliban is more ideologically inclined to ignore central Asian jihadis in Afghanistan, than attack them..
The fact remains that jihadi insurgency is never completely finished until there are cross border havens.. It might have its highs and lows, but is never over.. The threat to Russia and China will materialize only after "Central Asian states of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are destabilized by Jihadis. China just shares a 70 km border with Afghanistan, where ingress and egress can be easily controlled.. And Russia does not share any border with Afghanistan, but is very worried about the weak states of Central Asia being destabilized by Uzbek, Turkmen and Tajik jihadis..
Also, want to add one more thing.. Any Afghan Jihadi threat will have to come to India only via Pakistan. Also, neither Russia nor China, by virtue of Geography, is in a position to hurt Pakistan's core of Punjab, the way India can ..( by conventional means..). All of Pakistan Punjab's population centers and power centers are within range of Indian conventional weaponry.. and artillery..
 
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Tupac slayer

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Jihadists show their bravery only against democracies.. ? What are you high on..
There have been major terror attacks and jihadi driven wars and insurgencies in Syria, in Pakistan, in Iran.. So, you are saying that Syria, Pakistan and Iran are democracies ? The only mileage jihadis have against democracies viz. A viz. Security states like Pakistan, Russia or China, is that a democratic state often spends far more effort and money to neutralize a threat..as it has to navigate so many more internal road blocks..
The Taliban need not sponsor attacks against China or Central Asia.. The Afghan terrain is such that Taliban can never have total control over all of Afghanistan.. and assorted jihadis from central asia, Pakistan, Xinjiang, Chechenya are already part of Taliban and are shedding blood on the Taliban's behalf.. So, just as Taliban continues to have a relationship with AL qaeda, inspite of so much pain it had go through following US invasion of Afghanistan.. the fact remains that Taliban is more ideologically inclined to ignore central Asian jihadis in Afghanistan, than attack them..
The fact remains that jihadi insurgency is never completely finished until there are cross border havens.. It might have its highs and lows, but is never over.. The threat to Russia and China will materialize only after "Central Asian states of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are destabilized by Jihadis. China just shares a 70 km border with Afghanistan, where ingress and egress can be easily controlled.. And Russia does not share any border with Afghanistan, but is very worried about the weak states of Central Asia being destabilized by Uzbek, Turkmen and Tajik jihadis..

I think you misunderstood my post with regards to Jihadist activities in China or Russia, Let me ask an Honest Answer? Will Jihadist launch an massacre like Mumbai Terror Attack in Russia's Chechnya or Xiniang China without losing at least 1000 People in retaltion? The Answer is NO? China and Russia will use every conventional weapon in its arsenal to target Jihadist back, Same cant be told about US or India, US faced a lot of flak of for its drone attacks in Pakistan, President Obama has to scale back drone program after a US Drone strike hit an wedding convoy in Yemen.

https://www.hrw.org/report/2014/02/...ral/us-drone-attack-marriage-procession-yemen

I very well know Jihadist attitude is to impose Dar al Islam , no doubts about their ideology, My point here is to make a few things, Jihdadist at least worry about consequences when striking autocratic nations, But they dont have such fears when striking Democratic nations" Also I have doubts about your claim of Central Asian Jihadists and Xiniang Jihadists who fight along with Taliban, Definitely a few thousands of IMU Terrorists and a few hundred of Uighur Jihadist might fight along with Taliban, but majority of them are from PAKISTAN MADARASSAS rather than from Central Asian or Xiniang.


If the Afghan City of Mazar-i-Sharif fall to Taliban, Western Powers, Russia will think of a new strategy to combat Taliban.
 

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I think you misunderstood my post with regards to Jihadist activities in China or Russia, Let me ask an Honest Answer? Will Jihadist launch an massacre like Mumbai Terror Attack in Russia's Chechnya or Xiniang China without losing at least 1000 People in retaltion? The Answer is NO? China and Russia will use every conventional weapon in its arsenal to target Jihadist back, Same cant be told about US or India, US faced a lot of flak of for its drone attacks in Pakistan, President Obama has to scale back drone program after a US Drone strike hit an wedding convoy in Yemen.

https://www.hrw.org/report/2014/02/...ral/us-drone-attack-marriage-procession-yemen

I very well know Jihadist attitude is to impose Dar al Islam , no doubts about their ideology, My point here is to make a few things, Jihdadist at least worry about consequences when striking autocratic nations, But they dont have such fears when striking Democratic nations" Also I have doubts about your claim of Central Asian Jihadists and Xiniang Jihadists who fight along with Taliban, Definitely a few thousands of IMU Terrorists and a few hundred of Uighur Jihadist might fight along with Taliban, but majority of them are from PAKISTAN MADARASSAS rather than from Central Asian or Xiniang.


If the Afghan City of Mazar-i-Sharif fall to Taliban, Western Powers, Russia will think of a new strategy to combat Taliban.
The only strategy to permanently weaken the Taliban, into a non entity is to inflict unbearable economic pain on Pakistan, by all major powers in concert, so that the Pak. ARMY madrasa Taliban supply Chain collapses.. I don't see North Korea like economic isolation of Pakistan happening..
 

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Murican Interviewer never mentions OBL was found in Pak.
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U.S. ‘really messed it up’ in Afghanistan, says Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan

 

Indx TechStyle

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$ 4 Trillions? can you please explain?
Afghanistan has one largest reserves of metalloids and rare earths worthy of upto $4 trillions.

It's one of most resources rich countries on planet only superseded by countries in the league of Russia, China, Australia, Canada Brazil. Most of central Asian states are resources rich.

Destiny was kinda hard for Afghanistan. Had Pak wouldn't have created Taliban, the story of Afghanistan would have been different.
Afghanistan contained above quoted value of minerals? US would not have left Afghanistan!
US stayed in Afghanistan for this long for a number of good reasons. Yes, this too was one of them.

Since US couldn't ever stabilise Afghanistan, Afghanistan never got infrastructure and its potential remained untapped.
Please I beg you, Don't Exaggerate the Importance of Afghanistan, POK is important, Portion of Afghanistan, Portion of Afghanistan which connects Tajikistan is Important.
I'm not exaggerating anything. Afghanistan isn't only of geographic importance only. India doesn't have any significant natural resource density but all of India's neighbors do.
Additional Information: Cost of extracting above mentioned value of minerals will out number value of minerals in Terms of troops deployment, protection of workers, securing logistics for workers. Most of the Afghanistan unlike Iraq is not connected by Roads, Iraq for all the violence against foreign troops still has got good infrastructure unlike Afghanistan. Many people might wonder, How Americans were able to stay in Iraq despite more violence unleashed by Abu Musab Al Zarqawi and Co? were not able to stay in Afghanistan? its simple? Its because of Cost benefit analysis.
That's what we said. Afghanistan couldn't attain infrastructure. It doesn't mean that parties which are engaged in Afghanistan don't have this in mind.
 

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