India gains from standing up to China

lcafanboy

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India gains from standing up to China
Published July 30, 2017 SOURCE: SUNDAY GUARDIAN LIVE




The real and diplomatic gains are pouring in for India for taking on the mantle of checking China, at least in South Asia. The fresh developments have resulted in a quick flurry of reciprocal diplomatic moves from the United States, Canada, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Australia, and some favourable media commentary from the US too. These broadly favour India vis-a-vis Pakistan’s designs on the Kashmir valley. And by proxy, they undermine China and its other belligerent dependent, North Korea.

Very significantly, there have been absolutely no calls for India to stand down unilaterally at the China, Bhutan, India trijunction near Sikkim. America has, instead, pointedly begun to get a move on its military relationship and support of India. This is taking place legislatively in the backdrop of the recently concluded Malabar Naval exercises with India, the US, and Japan participating. This time the Malabar, which had Australia and Singapore in it earlier in addition, emphasised anti-submarine warfare. This is in counterpoint to China, which has deployed its large fleet of submarines in addition to its battleships, including an aircraft carrier of its own.

Australia is most concerned about restrictions on the use of the South China Sea, as more than 60% of its trade passes through it. It has recently overcome its reservations on supplying uranium to India, joining Canada in doing so. Singapore, with enormous commercial shipping using its ports, is also worried by China’s attitude.

Other countries affected by Chinese highhandedness, with rapacious trade deals, over-priced infrastructure, claims on international waterways, include Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo, Japan, Indonesia, Myanmar, Laos, Sri Lanka, Thailand and a number of African nations. The latest addition overground, is Mongolia, with a newly elected leader opposed to Chinese domination, whom India has invited to visit.

Russia, though not yet affected by Chinese imperialism, and working with both Pakistan and China, is clear it wants to continue to partner India’s military modernisation.

The US, apart from expediting the sale and joint-venturing of high technology military equipment, has sanctioned, in the US House of Representatives, a hefty budget running into over $600 billion. This is to be spent on military cooperation with India, and the US is drawing up plans on how to best go about it. The enabling Bill, to be processed via the Senate and the President, is unprecedented in terms of its scale and intent. India, on its part, is rapidly overcoming its reservations on military participation alongside the US in Afghanistan, and the mutual access to each other’s military bases and ports.

Calls for direct military help to India are growing louder in the US from leaders such as former Senator Larry Pressler and current Congressman Ted Poe, amongst others. As America reviews its Afghanistan-Pakistan-India South Asia policy, there is a compelling case for encouraging the restive independence movements of peoples along the Durand Line. Balochistan has an 1,100 km border with Afghanistan, and would-be Pakhtunistan, accounts for the remainder of the porous 2,430 km Afghanistan-Pakistan contiguity. America has, in addressing the problems of terrorism emanating from Pakistan, stopped $350 million in reimbursement of military aid, citing that the latter has not done anything to rein in terrorist organisations, naming several operating from its soil.

"China’s huge debt burden, amounting to 250% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and massive industrial and infrastructure-building over-capacity have also prompted it to embark on a grandiose, if frantic, course.

Elsewhere, the US is asserting the international right to freely use the South China Sea by way of overflights and US ships passing through it.

China has ignored the adverse ruling against it by the arbitrators at the International Court of Justice and continues to maintain an aggressive posture.

Canada has, at last, stopped the funding of Pakistani terrorist outfits acting against India, from its soil, and South Korea has cancelled its plans to work on hydropower projects in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Vietnam has invited India afresh to explore for oil and gas in the South China Sea, despite Chinese threats.

China’s huge debt burden, amounting to 250% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and massive industrial and infrastructure-building over-capacity, has also prompted it to embark on a grandiose, if frantic, course. It seeks to dominate countries and whole continents, with offers of projects in road, rail and industry, in the name of a seemingly visionary, but in truth spurious “connectivity”. Spurious, because China under President Xi Jinping actually seeks to kick the can of imminent collapse of the Chinese economy, already slowed to half of its peak, down the road. It is attempting to cleverly embroil the account books of scores of other countries in the process. China has also developed a strange way of refusing to adhere to negotiated agreements, going back on them, introducing new elements by referring back in time to obscure premises, or flouting them altogether.

This has made it clear, at least to India, that the only way to persuade it to behave is to resist it militarily. Despite bilateral Indian overtures and at fora like BRICS and the G20 recently, China chooses, almost every time, to react with arrogance. It seeks to expand BRICS, to take in several more countries, including Pakistan, to do away with any possibility of much Indian influence. It has blocked the Indian bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) and has refused to allow Pakistani terrorist masterminds be named at the UN.

But now India has at last taken the other tack and stood up to China. It has done so, much to China’s amazement, unilaterally, confidently, and very visibly—three times in quick succession. The first time was in April this year, then again in mid-May, and yet again at end-June. The last China has found particularly astounding, because it is an eyeball to eyeball confrontation at the trijunction.

Meanwhile, during the stand-off there have been highly successful Indian bilateral visits to the US and Israel, also unsettling for China.

It is this stand-off at the trijunction however, that has made the strategic establishment around the world sit up. The first of the recent unilateral Indian actions was when it allowed the Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh and the Tawang Buddhist monastery there, in April, ignoring vehement Chinese objections. A subset of this development took place in early July, when the Tibetan government in exile in India was allowed to perform religious ceremonies and unfurl the Tibetan flag on the Indian side of the Pangong Lake in Ladakh, in full view of the TV cameras. In May, India ignored China’s mega summit over the One-Belt-One-Road (OBOR) initiative, citing violations of its sovereignty in PoK, general opacity and lack of wider consultations.

Towards end-June, in reaction to China’s attempt to change the status quo, yet again, because this is the scene of earlier land grab attempts too, came the stand-off at the trijunction.

India’s National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval is in China as I write this, meeting with his counterparts from BRICS on 27 and 28 July. There is intense speculation, and therefore an outside chance, that Doval would hold discussions on the matter. But equally, because a climb-down is not on the cards for India, he may choose to delink the BRICS visit from the stand-off altogether.

That Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also expected in Beijing in early September for the BRICS Summit, is adding grist to the mill.

There is a compelling case for the Chinese to maintain a status quo and treat the stand-off in the minor key—better for the Chinese Communist Party Summit in November, when several members of the Politburo will be changed. Besides, Chinese trade with India tops $70 billion, and it does not make much sense to imperil it. However, from the domestic point of view, will Chinese pride in its military prowess allow it to let India go unpunished?

India is confident on its part, that, at least at the trijunction, it has the military advantage. In addition, China has not only ignored the Indian position on PoK by building a road through it, but has now issued a threat of military intervention in the Kashmir valley too. This, on the back of unsolicited offers to mediate.

The face-off at the trijunction, apart from its strategic military objectives, is a struggle for broader credibility for both countries. China wants to be taken seriously as the rising dominant. And India, with its alternative narrative, has invited the leadership of 10 ASEAN countries to its next Republic Day celebrations. It is determined to call the Chinese bluff.

http://idrw.org/india-gains-from-standing-up-to-china/#more-143032 .


So it is advantage India :daru::daru::daru::daru:


@IndianHawk @Willy2 @roma @Krusty @Defcon 1 @Ghanteshwar @raheel besharam @raja696 @Amr @AnkitPurohit @Akshay_Fenix @aditya10r @airtel @aditya10r @ancientIndian @Bahamut @Berkut @Bornubus @Bengal_Tiger @ersakthivel @FRYCRY @Gessler @HariSud @hit&run @hardip @indiandefencefan @IndianHawk @JayPatel @Kshatriya87 @LETHALFORCE @Mikesingh @NavneetKundu @OneGrimPilgrim @pmaitra @PaliwalWarrior @Pulkit @smestarz @SakalGhareluUstad @Srinivas_K @ShashankSharma @Superdefender @Screambowl @TacticalFrog @Abhijat @A chauhan @Alien @alphacentury @Ancient Indian @Ankit Purohit @anupamsurey @armyofhind @Bharat Ek Khoj @Bhumihar @blueblood @brational @Bangalorean @Blackwater @Bornubus @bose @Bullet @cobra commando @DingDong @DFI_COAS @dhananjay1 @ersakthivel @F-14B @fooLIam @gpawar @guru-dutt @here2where @hit&run @HariPrasad-1 @Indx TechStyle @Kshatriya87 @jackprince @Kharavela @Illusive @I_PLAY_BAD @LETHALFORCE @Lions Of Punjab @maomao @Mad Indian @OneGrimPilgrim @Peter @piKacHHu @Pinky Chaudhary @porky_kicker @Razor @raja696 @Rowdy @Sakal Gharelu Ustad @SanjeevM @saty @sydsnyper @Srinivas_K @Screambowl @sorcerer @Simple_Guy @Sylex21 @wickedone @tarunraju @TrueSpirit2 @thethinker @Tshering22 @vayuu1 @VIP @Vishwarupa @VIP @Varahamihira @Navnit Kundu @WARREN SS @Willy2 @3deffect
 

Flame Thrower

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Only if we dont have to fight a war...... Western countries would get benefits of this war.
On the contrary, we need skimmers.

Defeating China will have much clear picture.

When coming to defense purchases, we might also get some TOT through purchases.
 

SanjeevM

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Unless a war is imposed on us, we should remain neutral. If US and allies want, they can take the battle field to SCS. U.S. or any other nations didn't transfer us critical jet engine technology that we desperately need. Above that U.S. charged billions for drones. If they have to fight, they can fight. They should not expect india to join their war with screw driver technology they are offering.
 

no smoking

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Unless a war is imposed on us, we should remain neutral. If US and allies want, they can take the battle field to SCS. U.S. or any other nations didn't transfer us critical jet engine technology that we desperately need. Above that U.S. charged billions for drones. If they have to fight, they can fight. They should not expect india to join their war with screw driver technology they are offering.
The problem is: India hasn't done anything worth of some rewards more than screw driver technology.
 

Pinky Chaudhary

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India gains from standing up to China
Published July 30, 2017 SOURCE: SUNDAY GUARDIAN LIVE




The real and diplomatic gains are pouring in for India for taking on the mantle of checking China, at least in South Asia. The fresh developments have resulted in a quick flurry of reciprocal diplomatic moves from the United States, Canada, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Australia, and some favourable media commentary from the US too. These broadly favour India vis-a-vis Pakistan’s designs on the Kashmir valley. And by proxy, they undermine China and its other belligerent dependent, North Korea.

Very significantly, there have been absolutely no calls for India to stand down unilaterally at the China, Bhutan, India trijunction near Sikkim. America has, instead, pointedly begun to get a move on its military relationship and support of India. This is taking place legislatively in the backdrop of the recently concluded Malabar Naval exercises with India, the US, and Japan participating. This time the Malabar, which had Australia and Singapore in it earlier in addition, emphasised anti-submarine warfare. This is in counterpoint to China, which has deployed its large fleet of submarines in addition to its battleships, including an aircraft carrier of its own.

Australia is most concerned about restrictions on the use of the South China Sea, as more than 60% of its trade passes through it. It has recently overcome its reservations on supplying uranium to India, joining Canada in doing so. Singapore, with enormous commercial shipping using its ports, is also worried by China’s attitude.

Other countries affected by Chinese highhandedness, with rapacious trade deals, over-priced infrastructure, claims on international waterways, include Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo, Japan, Indonesia, Myanmar, Laos, Sri Lanka, Thailand and a number of African nations. The latest addition overground, is Mongolia, with a newly elected leader opposed to Chinese domination, whom India has invited to visit.

Russia, though not yet affected by Chinese imperialism, and working with both Pakistan and China, is clear it wants to continue to partner India’s military modernisation.

The US, apart from expediting the sale and joint-venturing of high technology military equipment, has sanctioned, in the US House of Representatives, a hefty budget running into over $600 billion. This is to be spent on military cooperation with India, and the US is drawing up plans on how to best go about it. The enabling Bill, to be processed via the Senate and the President, is unprecedented in terms of its scale and intent. India, on its part, is rapidly overcoming its reservations on military participation alongside the US in Afghanistan, and the mutual access to each other’s military bases and ports.

Calls for direct military help to India are growing louder in the US from leaders such as former Senator Larry Pressler and current Congressman Ted Poe, amongst others. As America reviews its Afghanistan-Pakistan-India South Asia policy, there is a compelling case for encouraging the restive independence movements of peoples along the Durand Line. Balochistan has an 1,100 km border with Afghanistan, and would-be Pakhtunistan, accounts for the remainder of the porous 2,430 km Afghanistan-Pakistan contiguity. America has, in addressing the problems of terrorism emanating from Pakistan, stopped $350 million in reimbursement of military aid, citing that the latter has not done anything to rein in terrorist organisations, naming several operating from its soil.

"China’s huge debt burden, amounting to 250% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and massive industrial and infrastructure-building over-capacity have also prompted it to embark on a grandiose, if frantic, course.

Elsewhere, the US is asserting the international right to freely use the South China Sea by way of overflights and US ships passing through it.

China has ignored the adverse ruling against it by the arbitrators at the International Court of Justice and continues to maintain an aggressive posture.

Canada has, at last, stopped the funding of Pakistani terrorist outfits acting against India, from its soil, and South Korea has cancelled its plans to work on hydropower projects in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Vietnam has invited India afresh to explore for oil and gas in the South China Sea, despite Chinese threats.

China’s huge debt burden, amounting to 250% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and massive industrial and infrastructure-building over-capacity, has also prompted it to embark on a grandiose, if frantic, course. It seeks to dominate countries and whole continents, with offers of projects in road, rail and industry, in the name of a seemingly visionary, but in truth spurious “connectivity”. Spurious, because China under President Xi Jinping actually seeks to kick the can of imminent collapse of the Chinese economy, already slowed to half of its peak, down the road. It is attempting to cleverly embroil the account books of scores of other countries in the process. China has also developed a strange way of refusing to adhere to negotiated agreements, going back on them, introducing new elements by referring back in time to obscure premises, or flouting them altogether.

This has made it clear, at least to India, that the only way to persuade it to behave is to resist it militarily. Despite bilateral Indian overtures and at fora like BRICS and the G20 recently, China chooses, almost every time, to react with arrogance. It seeks to expand BRICS, to take in several more countries, including Pakistan, to do away with any possibility of much Indian influence. It has blocked the Indian bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) and has refused to allow Pakistani terrorist masterminds be named at the UN.

But now India has at last taken the other tack and stood up to China. It has done so, much to China’s amazement, unilaterally, confidently, and very visibly—three times in quick succession. The first time was in April this year, then again in mid-May, and yet again at end-June. The last China has found particularly astounding, because it is an eyeball to eyeball confrontation at the trijunction.

Meanwhile, during the stand-off there have been highly successful Indian bilateral visits to the US and Israel, also unsettling for China.

It is this stand-off at the trijunction however, that has made the strategic establishment around the world sit up. The first of the recent unilateral Indian actions was when it allowed the Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh and the Tawang Buddhist monastery there, in April, ignoring vehement Chinese objections. A subset of this development took place in early July, when the Tibetan government in exile in India was allowed to perform religious ceremonies and unfurl the Tibetan flag on the Indian side of the Pangong Lake in Ladakh, in full view of the TV cameras. In May, India ignored China’s mega summit over the One-Belt-One-Road (OBOR) initiative, citing violations of its sovereignty in PoK, general opacity and lack of wider consultations.

Towards end-June, in reaction to China’s attempt to change the status quo, yet again, because this is the scene of earlier land grab attempts too, came the stand-off at the trijunction.

India’s National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval is in China as I write this, meeting with his counterparts from BRICS on 27 and 28 July. There is intense speculation, and therefore an outside chance, that Doval would hold discussions on the matter. But equally, because a climb-down is not on the cards for India, he may choose to delink the BRICS visit from the stand-off altogether.

That Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also expected in Beijing in early September for the BRICS Summit, is adding grist to the mill.

There is a compelling case for the Chinese to maintain a status quo and treat the stand-off in the minor key—better for the Chinese Communist Party Summit in November, when several members of the Politburo will be changed. Besides, Chinese trade with India tops $70 billion, and it does not make much sense to imperil it. However, from the domestic point of view, will Chinese pride in its military prowess allow it to let India go unpunished?

India is confident on its part, that, at least at the trijunction, it has the military advantage. In addition, China has not only ignored the Indian position on PoK by building a road through it, but has now issued a threat of military intervention in the Kashmir valley too. This, on the back of unsolicited offers to mediate.

The face-off at the trijunction, apart from its strategic military objectives, is a struggle for broader credibility for both countries. China wants to be taken seriously as the rising dominant. And India, with its alternative narrative, has invited the leadership of 10 ASEAN countries to its next Republic Day celebrations. It is determined to call the Chinese bluff.

http://idrw.org/india-gains-from-standing-up-to-china/#more-143032 .


So it is advantage India :daru::daru::daru::daru:


@IndianHawk @Willy2 @roma @Krusty @Defcon 1 @Ghanteshwar @raheel besharam @raja696 @Amr @AnkitPurohit @Akshay_Fenix @aditya10r @airtel @aditya10r @ancientIndian @Bahamut @Berkut @Bornubus @Bengal_Tiger @ersakthivel @FRYCRY @Gessler @HariSud @hit&run @hardip @indiandefencefan @IndianHawk @JayPatel @Kshatriya87 @LETHALFORCE @Mikesingh @NavneetKundu @OneGrimPilgrim @pmaitra @PaliwalWarrior @Pulkit @smestarz @SakalGhareluUstad @Srinivas_K @ShashankSharma @Superdefender @Screambowl @TacticalFrog @Abhijat @A chauhan @Alien @alphacentury @Ancient Indian @Ankit Purohit @anupamsurey @armyofhind @Bharat Ek Khoj @Bhumihar @blueblood @brational @Bangalorean @Blackwater @Bornubus @bose @Bullet @cobra commando @DingDong @DFI_COAS @dhananjay1 @ersakthivel @F-14B @fooLIam @gpawar @guru-dutt @here2where @hit&run @HariPrasad-1 @Indx TechStyle @Kshatriya87 @jackprince @Kharavela @Illusive @I_PLAY_BAD @LETHALFORCE @Lions Of Punjab @maomao @Mad Indian @OneGrimPilgrim @Peter @piKacHHu @Pinky Chaudhary @porky_kicker @Razor @raja696 @Rowdy @Sakal Gharelu Ustad @SanjeevM @saty @sydsnyper @Srinivas_K @Screambowl @sorcerer @Simple_Guy @Sylex21 @wickedone @tarunraju @TrueSpirit2 @thethinker @Tshering22 @vayuu1 @VIP @Vishwarupa @VIP @Varahamihira @Navnit Kundu @WARREN SS @Willy2 @3deffect
Yeah it's good for us....It will change the mindset of our political , defense and scientific establishment that china is a real threat and then they will formulate strategies to counter China which in turn should see growth in indigenous defense r&d....
 

Willy2

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We need to build a line a bureaucrat and free institutes from commi control if we need to keep this posture in future..we need to think beyond Modi and if attitude in bureaucracy don't change or they don't liberated from commi grip these type of aggressive govt policy would shrink in time to time effective leadership era...we can't let discontinuity in our foreign policy......
 

Peter

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Xi is trying to go for a war with us Indians so that he can consolidate his power within the CCP leadership. He thought that India would buckle in Bhutan as was the norm during Congress days. Sadly Xi`s plans have failed. The Chinese will never succeed with both Trump and Putin being hostile to them.
 

Compersion

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PRC is thinking that its history is aligned to the USA and the period of 1929 to 1939 is only a means to the end. A war is a economic methodology in their minds. If the USA has achieved its prosperity with such parameters whats wrong with PRC. Is there anything wrong PRC is doing ...

But the circumstances and applications of today cannot be replicated from before. The world today is far different to the world of yesteryear. Is it that simple. States and people changing course of history with such ease.

At the heart is ... also a methodology of dimensions that is beyond PRC control. Like certain things were beyond USA control previously.

What XI is doing is not smooth. He is having a rough ride. He is playing politics over his name. What comes out of this will be better for Chinese people.

What we are doing is smooth. But what is our planning and contingency for PRC. Ultimately we need a border that belongs to Bharat whoever is our neighbors. What is the ultimate border and geography of Bharat.

We have heard of us never invading anyone. But we have heard of states joining our union many times and even of different faiths and connections.

PRC at heart is of Chinese people it is a pity our engagement with Chinese people is not far and wide that it needs to be. They seek engagement with righteousness and we are.

North Korea, Vietnam, Japan

Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan

USA, Russia

Pakistan

Thailand, Myanmar, Mongolia

Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia

UK, France, Germany, Turkey

South America, Africa

----------------------------

All at once and it has been building up slowly.

This is not only Dolam.

The best thing is that we are at the center of it and have a important role to play and will make a big difference to whatever happens for good.
 

lcafanboy

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India's Uncompromising Stand Against China in the Himalayas Is Backed Up With Hard Power
India’s military capabilities at the Himalayas put it in a position to bargain with China.

By Nitin A. Gokhale
July 31, 2017


India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval is back from Beijing after attending the BRICS national security advisers’ conclave and meeting his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, but there is no sign yet of the standoff between Indian and Chinese troops at the Dolam (Doklam) plateau ending, almost two months after it began. Both sides have chosen not to comment on outcomes, if any, from the talks that Doval held in Beijing, indicating perhaps that a mutually satisfactory solution still eludes them. Or maybe, Beijing and New Delhi want to consult Bhutan, the third party in this unusual spat, before proceeding further.

Whatever the reason for the silence, the world is surprised at the turn of events since late-May when the border spat began at a point where the boundaries of India-China and Bhutan meet. For one, the vehemence displayed by Chinese commentators was out of the ordinary and so was the aggressive tone of official statements made by government spokespersons in Beijing, accusing India of trespassing into Chinese territory. More unusually however, the calm assurance and panache with which New Delhi has handled the crisis so far points to a far more confident India, a point that would be noticed and studied across important world capitals.

What then is the secret behind New Delhi’s polite yet firm stand?

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Several factors ranging from India’s better military posture along the contested border to improved economic heft can be cited for the new approach. However, the biggest reason for India to stand up to China ironically is the blatant attempt by President Xi Jinping to force a China-centric order in Asia, a proposition that no government in New Delhi can agree to under any circumstances. Under Narendra Modi, politically the strongest Prime Minister in India for three decades, accepting China’s hegemony was out of the question, given his muscular national security policies. Very early in his tenure Modi had decided to depart from convention on dealing with China. He broke a long standing taboo of not inviting representatives of the Tibetan government-in-exile and that of Taiwan to official functions, lest Beijing feel offended. The Prime Minister of the Tibetan Government-in-exile and Taiwan’s trade representative were among the select invitees to Modi’s oath taking ceremony in the summer of 2014, setting the tone for a more robust policy towards China.

A border standoff in Ladakh in September 2014—coinciding with President Xi Jinping’s maiden visit to India—witnessed a rare display of India’s new approach of not succumbing to Chinese bullying. After 1,000 Chinese troops intruded into Chumar, a remote border outpost in South-east Ladakh, New Delhi rapidly built up a 9,000-strong force in two days, forcing the PLA to back off. Another similar face-off at Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh in 2015 with the same result further demonstrated India’s resolve.

That resolve is being backed up with an improved military posture. Building on the modest beginning made under the previous government to improve infrastructure all along the northern frontier, the current government is quietly building capabilities to counter China militarily. Consider this:

  • India’s indigenously developed missiles—Agni, Akash, and Brahmos—are either ready for induction or already inducted into the armed forces, providing potent weapons for use against China.
  • The development of a family of K-Series of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM)—although mostly shrouded in secrecy—is in a fairly advanced stage, keeping India on track to complete its nuclear triad.
  • After initial reservation against the proposed Mountain Strike Corps (sanctioned by the previous government), the Modi government has revived its support for the project. Two Mountain Divisions meant for the Strike Corps are about to complete their raising in Northern and Eastern Commands. More air assets are planned for Strike Corps. The eventual aim is to build flexibility in its deployment and allow swift switching of forces from one theatre to another.
  • The formation of a Special Forces Division and a cyber and space agency, as prelude to formation of separate tri-services Special Forces, Cyber and Space Commands, has commenced in recent months.
Moreover, Ladakh, the scene of two prominent standoffs in 2013 and 2014, now has an additional infantry brigade stationed permanently in the area while more elements of Northern Command’s reserve division—39—now exercise regularly in the high altitude desert. From the initial induction of a regiment of T-72 tanks done in 2013, India now plans to augment its armor strength to a full-fledged tank brigade in Ladakh.

In the East, the 56 and 71 Mountain Divisions, raised from 2009 onwards, are now firmly placed and deployed on the ground, making more troops available to defense planners.

The Air Force has also staged forward its assets both in the North and the East by deploying the Sukhoi-30 planes at bases close to the Chinese border. Completion of the project to revamp eight Advanced Landing Grounds (ALGs) in Arunachal Pradesh will mean improved connectivity and increased capacity to insert troops in the high altitude areas. The reported deployment of Brahmos Missile regiments along the northern frontiers in the past couple of years means India now has additional offensive capability.

Strategically important roads high in the Himalayas, planned almost a decade ago, are now getting a more focussed attention with more tunnels at high altitude passes being built to allow all-weather traffic.

The Indian Navy, the smallest of the three armed forces, is in the midst of an unprecedented expansion, although the strength of its conventional submarine fleet remains a matter of concern.

There are of course many weaknesses in India’s higher defense management, its procurement systems, and pace of military modernization. Military leaders have spoken about a high degree of obsolescence across the three forces as a result of years of neglect and apathy in military modernization. The Modi government will have to redouble its efforts to overcome the shortages and restructure the management system of the military expeditiously to meet mounting challenges from China and Pakistan.

Overall, however, India’s military strength is right now adequate to hold off any Chinese adventurism across the Himalayas, but not strong enough for an offensive posture. Military analysts however argue that a stronger China will think twice before initiating any conflict with India since Indian soldiers are better trained and battle hardened compared to the PLA troops. That said, neither side will gain anything substantial in a possible armed conflict. That perhaps is the only saving grace in the troubled relationship between India and China at the moment.

http://thediplomat.com/2017/07/indi...n-the-himalayas-is-backed-up-with-hard-power/
 

The Ultranationalist

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This is it, since decades India has only been a military force and not a military power. I hope Modi ji works towards projecting Indias power in all regions or the world. Chinese too whould realise that India is a powerful ally and a terrifying enemy, if they think they can bully us thery are in for a disaster.
 

indiatester

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Our strong position does not seem to help other friends.


http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/31...l&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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The Week Donald Trump Lost the South China Sea
Vietnam's capitulation shows China's neighbors fear the U.S. no longer has their backs.


Vietnam’s history is full of heroic tales of resistance to China. But this month Hanoi bent the knee to Beijing, humiliated in a contest over who controls the South China Sea, the most disputed waterway in the world. Hanoi has been looking to Washington for implicit backing to see off Beijing’s threats. At the same time, the Trump administration demonstrated that it either does not understand or sufficiently care about the interests of its friends and potential partners in Southeast Asia to protect them against China. Southeast Asian governments will conclude that the United States does not have their backs. And while Washington eats itself over Russian spies and health care debates, one of the world’s most crucial regions is slipping into Beijing’s hands.

There’s no tenser set of waters in the world than the South China Sea. For the last few years, China and its neighbors have been bluffing, threatening, cajoling, and suing for control of its resources. In June, Vietnam made an assertive move. After two and a half years of delay, it finally granted Talisman Vietnam (a subsidiary of the Spanish energy firm Repsol) permission to drill for gas at the very edge of Hanoi’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea.

Under mainstream interpretations of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Vietnam was well within its rights to do so. Under China’s idiosyncratic interpretation, it was not. China has never even put forward a clear claim to that piece of seabed. On July 25, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang would only urge “the relevant party to cease the relevant unilateral infringing activities” — but without saying what they actually were. In the absence of official clarity, Chinese lawyers and official think tanks have suggested two main interpretations.

China may be claiming “historic rights” to this part of the sea on the grounds that it has always been part of the Chinese domain (something obviously contested by all the other South China Sea claimants, as well as neutral historians). Alternatively, it may be claiming that the Spratly Islands — the collection of islets, reefs, and rocks off the coasts of Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines — are entitled as a group to their own EEZ. An international arbitration tribunal in The Hague, however, ruled these claims incompatible with UNCLOS a year ago. China has refused to recognize both the tribunal and its ruling.

In mid-June, Talisman Vietnam set out to drill a deepwater “appraisal well” in Block 136-03 on what insiders believe is a billion-dollar gas field, only 50 miles from an existing Repsol operation. The Vietnamese government knew there was a risk that China might try to interfere and sent out coast guard ships and other apparently civilian vessels to protect the drillship.

At first, China’s intervention was relatively diplomatic. The vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, Gen. Fan Changlong, visited Hanoi on June 18 and demanded an end to the drilling. When Vietnam refused, he cancelled a joint meeting on border security (the 4th Border Defense Friendly Exchange) and went home.

Reports from Hanoi (which have been confirmed by similar reports, from different sources, to the Australia-based analyst Carlyle Thayer) say that, shortly afterward, the Vietnamese ambassador in Beijing was summoned to the Chinese Foreign Ministry and told, bluntly, that unless the drilling stopped and Vietnam promised never to drill in that part of the sea ever again, China would take military action against Vietnamese bases in the South China Sea.

This is a dramatic threat, but it is not unprecedented. While researching my book on the South China Sea, I was told by a former BP executive that China had made similar threats to that company when it was operating off the coast of Vietnam in early 2007. Fu Ying, then the Chinese ambassador in London, told BP’s CEO at the time, Tony Hayward, that she could not guarantee the safety of BP employees if the company did not abandon its operations in the South China Sea. BP immediately agreed and over the following months withdrew from its offshore Vietnam operations. I asked Fu about this at a dinner in Beijing in 2014, and she replied, “I did what I did because I have great respect for BP and did not want it to get into trouble.”

Vietnam occupies around 28 outposts in the Spratly Islands. Some are established on natural islands, but many are isolated blockhouses on remote reefs. According to Thayer, 15 are simply platforms on legs: more like place markers than military installations. They would be all but impossible to defend from a serious attack. China demonstrated this with attacks on Vietnamese positions in the Paracel Islands in 1974 and in a battle over Johnson South Reef in the Spratlys in 1988. Both incidents ended with casualties for Vietnam and territorial gains for China. There are rumors, entirely unconfirmed, that there was a shooting incident near one of these platforms in June. If true, this may have been a more serious warning from Beijing to Hanoi.

Meanwhile, the drillship Deepsea Metro I had found exactly what Repsol was looking for: a handsome discovery — mainly gas but with some oil. The company thought there could be more and kept on drilling. It hoped to reach the designated total depth of the well by the end of July.

Back in Hanoi, the Politburo met to discuss what to do. Low oil prices and declining production from the country’s existing offshore fields were hurting the government budget. The country needed cheap energy to fuel its economic growth and keep the Communist Party in power — but, at the same time, it was deeply dependent on trade with China.

It is all but impossible to know for sure how big decisions are made in Vietnam, but the version apparently told to Repsol was that the Politburo was deeply split. Of its 19 members, 17 favored calling China’s bluff. Only two disagreed, but they were the most influential figures at the table: the general secretary of the party, Nguyen Phu Trong, and Defense Minister Ngo Xuan Lich.

After two acrimonious meetings in mid-July, the decision was made: Vietnam would kowtow to Beijing and end the drilling. According to the same sources,

the winning argument was that the Trump administration could not be relied upon to come to Hanoi’s assistance in the event of a confrontation with China. the winning argument was that the Trump administration could not be relied upon to come to Hanoi’s assistance in the event of a confrontation with China. Reportedly, the mood was rueful. If Hillary Clinton had been sitting in the White House, Repsol executives were apparently told, she would have understood the stakes and everything would have been different.
The faith in Clinton isn’t surprising. Her interventions on behalf of the Southeast Asian claimant states, starting in Hanoi at the July 2010 meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum, are well remembered in the region. The Barack Obama administration’s focus on the regional rules-based order was welcomed by governments fearful of domination by either the United States or China.

That said, some U.S. observers are skeptical that any other administration would have been more forthcoming. Bonnie Glaser, the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, questions this apparent contrast: “What would the U.S. have done differently [under Obama]? I find it unlikely that the U.S. would militarily defend Vietnam against China. Vietnam isn’t an ally.”

Yet it wouldn’t have taken much: a statement or two about the rules-based order and the importance of abiding by UNCLOS, some coincidental naval exercises during the weeks of the drilling, perhaps even some gunnery practice in the region of Block 136-03 and a few quiet words between Washington and Beijing. “Forward-deployed diplomacy,” as it used to be called. The Obama administration warned Beijing off the Scarborough Shoal in April 2016 this way. Has Donald Trump’s Washington forgotten the dark art of deterrence?

The implications of China’s victory are obvious. Regardless of international law, China is going to set the rules in the South China Sea. It is going to apply its own version of history, its own version of “shared” ownership, and it will dictate who can exploit which resources. If Vietnam, which has at least the beginnings of a credible naval deterrent, can be intimidated, then so can every other country in the region, not least the Philippines.

This month, Manila announced its intention to drill for the potentially huge gas field that lies under the Reed Bank in the South China Sea. The desire to exploit those reserves (before the country’s main gas field at Malampaya runs out in a few years’ time) was the main reason for the Philippines to initiate the arbitration proceedings in The Hague. The Philippines won a near total legal victory in that case, but since taking office just over a year ago, President Rodrigo Duterte has downplayed its importance. He appears to have been intimidated: preferring to appeal to China for financial aid rather than assert his country’s maritime claims.

In May, Duterte told an audience in Manila that Chinese President Xi Jinping had warned him there would be war if the Philippines tried to exploit the gas reserves that the Hague tribunal had ruled belonged to his country. Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in the Philippine capital to discuss “joint development” of those energy resources.

Where Duterte and the Vietnamese leadership go, others will follow. Southeast Asian governments have reached one major conclusion from President Trump’s first six months: The United States is not prepared to put skin in the game.

What is the point of all those freedom of navigation operations to maintain UNCLOS if, when push comes to shove, Washington does not support the countries that are on the receiving end of Chinese pressure?What is the point of all those freedom of navigation operations to maintain UNCLOS if, when push comes to shove, Washington does not support the countries that are on the receiving end of Chinese pressure?
Why has Washington been so inept? Secretary of State Rex Tillerson knows the stakes well. His former company ExxonMobil is also investigating a massive gas prospect in disputed waters. The “Blue Whale” field lies in Block 118, farther north and closer to Vietnam’s coast than Repsol’s discovery — but also contested by China. Like so much else, it’s a mystery whether this is a deliberate choice by the Trump White House not to get involved in the details of the disputes or if it is a reflection of the decimation of the State Department’s capabilities, with so many senior posts vacant and so many middle-ranking staff leaving.

The most worrying possibility would be that Tillerson failed to act out of the desire to see his former commercial rival, Repsol, fail so that his former employer, ExxonMobil, could obtain greater leverage in the Vietnamese energy market. But what government would ever trust Tillerson again?

Repsol is currently plugging its highly successful appraisal well with cement and preparing to sail away from a total investment of more than $300 million. Reports from the region say a Chinese seismic survey vessel, the HYSY760, protected by a small flotilla, is on its way to the same area to examine the prospects for itself. UNCLOS has been upended, and the rules-based order has been diminished. This wasn’t inevitable nor a fait accompli. If Hanoi thought Washington had its back, China could have been deterred — and the credibility of the United States in the region strengthened. Instead, Trump has left the region drifting in the direction of Beijing.
 

nongaddarliberal

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ASEAN is lost. They don't have the capability nor the political intent to challenge the Chinese the way we did. Most of their investment in coming from China, and a large portion of their top businessmen and their upper middle class people are of Chinese ancestry, and are increasingly loyal to the PRC. Secondly, they don't have anything that resembles a joint strategic doctrine between the countries. Philippines is even entering a "joint development" agreement with China for drilling in the disputed waters.

Whether we like it or not, we're the last man standing, and how we deal with China in the coming decades will determine all of Asia's future.
 

Yggdrasil

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ASEAN is lost. They don't have the capability nor the political intent to challenge the Chinese the way we did. Most of their investment in coming from China, and a large portion of their top businessmen and their upper middle class people are of Chinese ancestry, and are increasingly loyal to the PRC. Secondly, they don't have anything that resembles a joint strategic doctrine between the countries. Philippines is even entering a "joint development" agreement with China for drilling in the disputed waters.

Whether we like it or not, we're the last man standing, and how we deal with China in the coming decades will determine all of Asia's future.
Sir, with all due respect, I live in ASEAN, do business in ASEAN, and I travel to almost every ASEAN country at least once a year.

Here are my observations:

1) Anti-China sentiment has never been higher. Duterte has been playing around with Xi, but the average Filipino hates the living crap out of China. They hate Chinese tourists, they hate their businesses. Just talk to a taxi driver in Manila, you'll get a good picture.

2) Ethnic Chinese DO NOT naturally align with China and are in fact usually its strongest critics. They hate the PRC even more than the others. They like Taiwan, Korea, Japan (yes, there is no ill-will towards the Japanese left in ASEAN). They idolise Japanese and it's their #1 travel destination. Not one of them travels to China on a holiday, unless they're trying to save money and can't afford to go to Japan - or are interested in exploring their ancestral towns.

3) Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand are all itching for India to make its presence felt in ASEAN. The positive sentiment towards India is growing, and there is a genuine concern on their part for China's aggressive and expansionist behaviour. They've also seen Chinese businesses cheat and swindle them, so the wariness on that front is growing.

India still has a 2-3 year window to make a massive push towards establishing closer relations with ASEAN. But they've seen our passivity for too long, and are hopeful that Modi will correct many of the mistakes his predecessors made.

Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's Prime Minister, frequently tried to engage India in greater participation in the region, in Singapore, in its military. India's indifferent leaders squandered all the chances.
 

Razor

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Xi is trying to go for a war with us Indians so that he can consolidate his power within the CCP leadership. He thought that India would buckle in Bhutan as was the norm during Congress days. Sadly Xi`s plans have failed. The Chinese will never succeed with both Trump and Putin being hostile to them.
??? What are you talking about dude?
Sure the ruski don't like the chinese, but they don't have a choice at this point.
In spite of them saying the economic sanctions don't bother them, they have taken a hit. And they are in recession.
If you look at recent putin xi meetings (over last two years), you might notice notice putin behaving like a sub.
Also russian media like RT, Sputnik etc have decidedly become pro-chini and anti-india.
-----------------
Coming to the topic of the thread the choinks have gone crazy. They could have tried to save their flat faces, but no, no, Xi likes it hard.
This time India ain't backing down. Or at least I hope.
 

nongaddarliberal

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Sir, with all due respect, I live in ASEAN, do business in ASEAN, and I travel to almost every ASEAN country at least once a year.

Here are my observations:

1) Anti-China sentiment has never been higher. Duterte has been playing around with Xi, but the average Filipino hates the living crap out of China. They hate Chinese tourists, they hate their businesses. Just talk to a taxi driver in Manila, you'll get a good picture.

2) Ethnic Chinese DO NOT naturally align with China and are in fact usually its strongest critics. They hate the PRC even more than the others. They like Taiwan, Korea, Japan (yes, there is no ill-will towards the Japanese left in ASEAN). They idolise Japanese and it's their #1 travel destination. Not one of them travels to China on a holiday, unless they're trying to save money and can't afford to go to Japan - or are interested in exploring their ancestral towns.

3) Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand are all itching for India to make its presence felt in ASEAN. The positive sentiment towards India is growing, and there is a genuine concern on their part for China's aggressive and expansionist behaviour. They've also seen Chinese businesses cheat and swindle them, so the wariness on that front is growing.

India still has a 2-3 year window to make a massive push towards establishing closer relations with ASEAN. But they've seen our passivity for too long, and are hopeful that Modi will correct many of the mistakes his predecessors made.

Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's Prime Minister, frequently tried to engage India in greater participation in the region, in Singapore, in its military. India's indifferent leaders squandered all the chances.
These are very interesting observations, and I'm sure your exposure to ASEAN Is much more than mine, as my travels there have been limited to Cambodia and Thailand (and no, not for that reason). But I do keep track of the news there, and I don't see how exactly they will stand up to China in the future. The Chinese are building islands like a kid builds sand castles. None of them has taken an aggressive military posture like us. Duterte has made excuses for backing down, saying that the Chinese will declare war otherwise.

Overall I hope we can capitalize on the anti Chinese sentiment to change the ground reality, but I am not seeing any real progress.
 

SanjeevM

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Indian foreign minister just had her kidney replaced. She seems not actively involved in taking foreign trips. If she can't tour around other countries, NDA should have a new foreign minister who can tour around the countries and build better relationship.

Presently we also don't have a full time Defence Minister. If we can get full time Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, he can tour around these ASEAN countries and stitch a military alliance. BJP should appoint a new coalition chief minister in GOA and get Manohar Parrikar in defence ministry, even if they have to lose Goa to opposition.
 

Flame Thrower

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Frankly speaking, they are about to buckle under the pressure.

They know that they're all alone in the fight. Neither US, nor India for the matter is going to provide a direct millitary help. Bhutan & NK issues might have catalysed the result.

Sure NK and Bhutan has raised tension, but no shots had been fired. Before some one could mention about the USN and its carrier fleet, 1 or 2 carrier fleets cant gurantee the Air supremacy over the SCS while battling entire PLAAF and PLAN. If China desides to send its war ships to any of these countries, no other country would pitch in for help.

They also belive that direct confrontation(even with American support) will result in more loss than surrendering to China. Like in Philippines, we might see the rise of ISIS in many other countries. Philippines was the first country to express its good will towards China and we know what happened.

The situation can only change if there is a skimmers in Doklam or US victory on NK(without SK being destroyed). The chances are very less. India might not resist much on this decision, but US is sure going to. After all ASEAN is to play major role in the America's grand plan to resist China in SCS.

If SCS falls to China, soon the Asia-Pacific region, i.e., SK and Japan will follow the trends(i.e., settling the dispute with both China and Russia).

The first rounds of this settlement will not be onesided, but will be aimed to push Americans out of the region. Maybe after 10 to 15 yrs, they might become one sided.

These thoughts are farfetched, but with a possiblity.
 

SanjeevM

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All of this is happening because of Trump becoming U.S. president. He lacks foresight. He brought down U.S. from the position of sole world power to nothing. His turning away from Asia Pacific seems like helping Chinese because of his business interests. China is filling that power vacuum. India under UPA, due to policies of neglecting defence industry has also helped China to rise to the current position of supremacy.

I hope Modi will do something very fast for instilling confidence in ASEAN countries. U.S. deep state should take power and bring Trump on line to retain its status of a global sole power.
 

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