- Feb 16, 2009
Thank you for throwing caution to the wind AMJ. This is a serious concern and I believe that as in the US, such kids can be given opportunities in the armed forces rather than just sit around doing nothing....There is nothing to party about guys.
This also means more mouths to be fed. How?? We have no idea.
Those 220 million people also include those who barely get enough to fill thei tummies.
We need to control our exploding population. Young populace is good. But from where are we going to provide jobs to all. That means Un-Employment. And as we all know, "Khaali dimag, Shaitaan ka ghar".
So either we get our house in order to feed all, or, stop the ticking time bomb from exploding. Better we do them both.
You didn't understand the implication of this statistic at all. It means that we are making more military-capable people anually, than anyone. If (the big if), in the midst of a [really] big war, the government decides to draft, we will have greater ability to pool in troops than any other country in the world.There is nothing to party about guys.
This also means more mouths to be fed. How?? We have no idea.
Monk I agree with you the armed forces should be promoted by the government as a good alternative for the poor youth, there is a skills and experience that goes with the services and India can have a program where people coming from armed services non career servicemen should be given first preferrence for government jobs. The rising youth population will be a benefit to the nation
BBC NEWS | South Asia | India's demographic dividend
India's demographic dividend
Nowadays no meeting on India seems complete without a reference to the coming "demographic dividend".
What really is this demographic dividend? The basic idea is straightforward enough. In the year 2004 India had a population of 1,080 million, of whom 672 million people were in the age-group 15 to 64 years. This is usually treated as the "working age population".
Since outside of this age group very few people work, it is reasonable to think of the remainder, that is, 408 million people, as the "dependent population". A nation's "dependency ratio" is the ratio of the dependent population to the working-age population. In the case of India this turns out to be 0.6. On this score India does not look too different from many other developing countries. Bangladesh's dependency ratio is 0.7, Pakistan's 0.8, Brazil's 0.5. What is different about India is the prediction that it will see a sharp decline in this ratio over the next 30 years or so. This is what constitutes the demographic dividend for India. India's fertility rate - that is, the average number of children a woman expects to have in her life time - used to be 3.8 in 1990. This has fallen to 2.9 and is expected to fall further. Since women had high fertility earlier we now have a sizeable number of people in the age-group 0-15 years.
Benefits of demography
But since fertility is falling, some 10 or 15 years down the road, this bulge of young people would have moved into the working-age category. And, since, at that time, the relative number of children will be small (thanks to the lowered fertility), India's dependency ratio would be lower. It is expected that, in 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years, compared to 37 for China and 48 for Japan; and, by 2030, India's dependency ratio should be just over 0.4.
This can confer many benefits.
First is the direct benefit of there being a rise in the relative number of bread-winners.
Moreover, with fewer children being born, more women will now join the work force; so this can give a further fillip to the bread-winner ratio. A more indirect but vital benefit for the economy is the effect this can have on savings.
More women can work with fewer children being born
Human beings save most during the working years of their lives. When they are children, they clearly consume more than they earn, and the situation is the same during old age. Hence, a decline in the nation's dependency ratio is usually associated with a rise in the average savings rate. India's savings rate as a percentage of GDP has been rising since 2003. It now stands at 33% which is comparable to the Asian super-performers, all of whom save at above 30%, with China saving at an astonishing near 40% rate. This savings growth is driven by improvements in the government's fiscal health and a sharp rise in corporate savings.
But even if these factors disappear, the decline in the dependency ratio should enable India to hold its savings and investment rate above the 30% mark for the next 25 years.
This theory of demographic advantage has been challenged by some as just that - theory. One way of evaluating this in reality is to look at the actual experience of other nations. The most striking example of economic growth being spurred by demography is the case of Ireland. Ireland's legalisation of contraception in 1979 caused a decline in the birth rate, from 22 (per 1000 population) in 1980 to 13 in 1994. This caused a rapid decline in the dependency ratio. The phenomenal economic boom in Ireland thereafter, earning it the sobriquet "Celtic Tiger", is very likely founded in this fertility decline. (I am disinclined to concede ground to the competing view that it was caused by Pope John Paul II's visit to Ireland in 1979).
India's fertility rate has fallen
One has seen a similar sequence of changes in demographics and the economy in Japan in the 1950s and China in the 1980s.
But even if this happened in some places, will it happen in India? My expectation is that India will get benefit from higher savings and investment rates and this will continue to fire India's high growth rate. Beyond that much will depend on how the nation performs on primary and secondary education (to make sure that the larger working-age population conferred by the demographic dividend are an educated lot) and the manufacturing sector (which is needed to create job opportunities for the larger labour force).
What is important to remember is that the demographic dividend is a population bulge in the working-age category.
Like a kill in a python's stomach it will eventually move up, causing a rise in the old-age dependency ratio some three to four decades from now. That is, every demographic dividend comes with an accompanying "demographic echo". It is in the nation's interest to reap as much as possible from the dividend so that it is robust enough not stymied later by the echo.
Link: The Devil in the Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict, 1950-2000 - PRIOThe study finds robust support for the hypothesis that youth bulges increase the risk of domestic armed conflict, and especially so under conditions of economic stagnation. Moreover, the lack of support for the youth bulge hypothesis in recent World Bank studies is found to arise from a serious weakness in the youth bulge measure employed by World Bank researchers. The author finds no evidence for the claim made by Samuel P. Huntington that youth bulges above a certain ‘critical level’ make countries especially prone to conflict. The study, however, provides evidence that the combination of youth bulges and poor economic performance can be explosive. This is bad news for regions that currently exhibit both features, often in coexistence with intermediary and unstable political regimes, in particular Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab world.
|Thread starter||Similar threads||Forum||Replies||Date|
|'Dangal' grips China, total earnings may surpass India collections||General Multimedia||3|
|I||India's 1971 and Bangladesh Policy a total failure?||Foreign Relations||1|
|INDIA should aim at this : Worldwide UAV Market Will Total $89 Billion In 10 Years||Military Aviation||0|
|E||UAE now top India's trading partner with US$44.5b in total in 2008-2009: Indian Minis||Economy & Infrastructure||1|