India concerned over burgeoning Russia-Pak friendship

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we have other suppliers who can easily fit Russia's spot, if they are happy with this development, the loss to Russia will be greater than the loss to India.
 

EagleOne

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In present day multi polar world it is not possible to go with only one customer or so ...
 

Vinod2070

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Well, Pakistanis have been looking for this opening for decades.

We stil need to see how it pans out. Today's Russia is not an ideological Russia of old. They will go for their commercial interests and right now it is India that provides the bigger buck.

But of we have our options open to buy from where we please, it is only fair that Russia can sell to others. Also it is only fair that we let them know the consequences. ;)
 
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I think India -Russian millitary relations may have peeked after Brahmos and PAKFA there is not much more in the weapon category we can acquire from Russia. Russia themselves are looking to buy UAV from Israel and warships from France. The military infrastructure that existed during the cold war does not exist today in Russia. It is only natural for us to also diversify our suppliers. Many Russian weapons have been going to Pakistan via China for decades so this is not a new development or anything shocking it was never truly a 100% India only relationship like we want to believe when Russia is a big supplier to China.
 

Rahul92

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some times i also feel that Russia plays double games by selling the sukhoi s in different mods
Su-30MKI
MKI stands for "Modernizirovannyi Kommercheskiy Indiski" meaning "Modernized Commercial India". Jointly-developed with India's Hindustan Aeronautics Limited for the Indian Air Force. Includes Thrust Vectoring Control (TVC) and canards. Equipped with a multi-national avionics complex sourced from Israel, India, Russia and France.[6]
Su-30MKK
Export version for China. MKK stands for Modernizirovannyi Kommercheskiy Kitaya or Modernized Commercial China.
Su-30MKM
A derivative of the Indo-Russian MKI,[7] the MKM is a highly specialized version for Royal Malaysian Air Force (M is for 'Malaysia' ).[citation needed] It includes Thrust Vectoring Control (TVC) and canards but with avionics from various countries. It will feature head-up displays (HUD), navigational forward-looking IR system (NAVFLIR) and Damocles Laser Designation pod (LDP) from Thales Group of France, MAW-300 missile approach warning sensor (MAWS), RWS-50 RWR and laser warning sensor (LWS) from SAAB AVITRONICS (South Africa)[8] as well as the Russian NIIP N011M BARS PESA radar, electronic warfare (EW) system, optical-location system (OLS) and a glass cockpit.[9] Others include Goodrich lights and communications suite from Rohde & Schwarz of Germany.
Su-30MKV
Export version for Venezuela is most likely to be similar to the Su-30MK2. This is based on the presence of two such demonstrator models (No. 0460 and No. 1259) from the KNAAPO facility that took part in July 2006 national day parade in Caracas.
Su-30MK2
Su-30MKK with upgraded electronics that enabled support for anti-ship missiles.
Su-30MK2V
Su-30MK2 variant for Vietnam with minor modifications.[10]
Su-30MK3
Su-30MKK with Zhuk MSE radar and Support for Kh-59MK anti-ship missile.
Su-30MKA
A specialised version for Algeria is similar to the MKI, but will principally be equipped with French and Russian avionics. It will feature head-up and multifunction displays from the Thales Group and Sagem of France.
 

amoy

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putting 3 things side by side
1) Chinese presence in G & B of Pakistan
2) Comrade Medvedev warms up with Pakistan
3) Being mired in Afghanistan the US has to find a way out sooner or later

'Great minds' think alike (^_^)

Pakistan is anyway a 'winner' in the game with a new leverage, also to milk more from the US.
 

mayfair

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Rather than be concerned and unnecessarily fret over the potential Roosi-Pakistani mutual wankfest, India must be prepared and geared up to deal with such situations.
 

Tshering22

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I personally don't think we need to worry about this so-called burgeoning ties between the two states. The reason why Russia is dealing with Pakistan is because of:


1) Russia is simply diversifying right now because in the next 1-1.5 decades, we're going to be self-reliant in almost every key defense sector-- fighter jets (Tejas, MRTA, FGFA, AMCA, Saras, Sitara), warships ( 17A frigates, Shivalik class, INS Arihant, INS Vikrant-II, IAC-2, 6 domestic SSNs), Battle vehicles (Indo-Polish light tanks, Arjun Mk.2, F-INSAS) etc.

Which means that Russia needs to start hunting for more greener pastures. We might retain our military relations with Russians even later but it won't be as dependent and as profitable as it is right now. We've even issued and RFI for the Naval MRCA for IAC-2 already for which Typhoon and Gripen are eager to develop naval variants and also Navy is interested in getting AMCA into Naval fleet sometime in future; meaning that MiG-29K chapter closes beyond the present 45. So it needs newer customers to retain its status as world's Number 2 arms supplier or even exceed USA.

2) Former Soviet central Asia has been Russia's stronghold and a base for the Bear since last 400+ years. Due to poverty, fragile governments, increasing Saudi aid donations for alleged promotion of radical version of Islam (Uzbekistan is a good example here), limited literacy or awareness as well as the possibility of radical Islam spreading from Pakistan to these regions is way too much a reality. Russia has two options here:

a) Engage Pakistan extensively in terms of helping them through soft loans and defensive weapons

OR

b) Declare war on Pakistan as a whole and bomb their entire country to stone-age, which isn't possible because Pakistan is still Uncle Sam's blue-eyed baby.

3) China. Due to China's dominating of global economic scenes and having an Achilles hold on Russian economy through very high loan provision as well as customer of many commercial products from Russia, China has a certain higher leverage over us when it comes to Russia. China's realized in all these years the potential a stable Pakistan holds for them: A hindrance to us in matching upto the Chinese in future. So they are propping Pakistan desperately and fiercely against us by repeatedly pressing Kashmir as disputed and Arunachal as theirs as well as aggressively asking PLA to make pinprick incursions into our territory knowing that our government is WEAK and a COWARD.

The best way to get Pakistan a "good boy" image as opposed to the "terrorist" image it has now developed in West thanks to radical fundamentalists living in Western countries and raising the possibility of domestic terrorism, is to engage the next big player in the region: Russia AND bog Pakistan in Chinese loans for next 50 years, before Pakistan is in any condition to repay it. For everyone's knowledge, Pakistan's external debt stands at US$ 55 Billion and is increasing as China pumps more and more money for its development coupled with US & UK AID and IMF and WB.
loans. Russia now if decided to help Pakistanis, this makes Chinese position strong vis-a-vis their influence on Russians as well as the latter seeing a potential market.


Other than the above points, there's no gain that Russia is engaging with Pakistan. Economically, Pakistan cannot buy 1/10th of what we can buy from Russian companies; militarily.. well Russia doesn't provide free gifts. Geopolitically too, Pakistan doesn't hold sway in Muslim countries any more nor has any influence at all on non-Muslim countries as compared to India. So there's not one reason other than the 3 above especially the last point, that This is taking place.
 
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shaka

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Nothing has happened people. If India wants to be a strong Asian power (superpower status is long way away IMHO), we need to stop worrying about these small little things. Russians are not stupid. They will not throw the strategic relationship they have with India into dustbin.
Lets see:
# Russia has leased India a nuclear sub, do you have any other example like this anywhere else in the world.
# Brahmos - Finest of Russia's cruise missile technology they shared with India OK I can understand there were rumors they didnt give complete ToT for some items, remember these technologies have been developed by sheer hardwork by their scientists and engineers at least they will sell it without any restrictions
# PakFa - Finest of Russia aviation, they are ready to have a JV with India.
# India is Russia's biggest customer as far as defence products are concerned.

We shouldnt become paranoid. There is nothing wrong if Russians talk with Pakistan. There has been no shifting of alliances. Neither is India allied with US as far as Russia is concerned, neither is Russia allied with Pakistan as far as India is concerned.
 
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Maybe they are concerned now that we have are buying from Israel and USA?? I don't think it is from our side.
 

Rahul92

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no doubt on loyalty but changing trends may force Russia to re look for its glory in afganistan
 

shaka

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Maybe they are concerned now that we have are buying from Israel and USA?? I don't think it is from our side.
They will be naturally concerned as they will like India to buy everything from Russia. But they do know that India has always bought some thing western along with Russian systems eg Mirage2000, artillery, Aircraft carriers and now MMRCA (most likely). There is nothing new. And so far we haven't bought any major weapon system from US (due to various reasons such as sanctions, stupid EUM agreements etc.), that will pi$$ off Russia. But as I said in previous post Russian relationship with India is simply too big for both sides to f**k up. That is a loose-loose situation.
 

Rahul92

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. But as I said in previous post Russian relationship with India is simply too big for both sides to f**k up. That is a loose-loose situation.
the Australian Report and the Design itself, F-35 is not much stealthier than the PAK-FA. The one that we have seen was a prototype tested to check its flying capabilities. I guess it didn't even retract its Landing Gear. So, please just don't casually denounce the PAK-FAs capabilities. Also, FGFA is more likely to be used, like other Indian Aircrafts, in a defensive role than an offensive role. Now, when its about coming into a country and attacking, Stealth is the key . But if its about being within in your country, stealth is useless, because the ground based Radars can easily detect planes like F-22 Raptor and so can Early Warning Aircrafts. So, keeping in mind the defencive policies of both Russia and India, FGFA/PAK-FAs stealth is just adequate unlike America's aggressive policies of invading other countries.
 

Tshering22

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^^ Actually I feel we might have to go on the offensive soon enough, buddy. PLA is taking us for a ride and so are terrorists from PsK AND 26.11 WAS THE biggest embarrassment. A recent report stated that if anything of that nature (goodness forbid) happened, IAF may have to launch strike missions in the PsK. Also if PLA ground troops move too much for our army to handle, we might need to use air support to assault PLA soldiers on ground.
 

ajtr

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Changing face of Russia-Pakistan ties


VLADIMIR RADYUHIN

India will have to learn to live with the new Russian-Pakistani bonhomie, just as Russia has taken India's entanglement with the U.S. in its stride.

Last month's quadripartite summit of Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan hosted by President Dmitry Medvedev at the Black Sea resort, Sochi, must have made South Block strategists sit up. From India's perspective, the main outcome was that Moscow decisively moved to de-hyphenate its relations with Islamabad and New Delhi. Little wonder then, that even three weeks after the summit there has been no reaction from New Delhi.

The focus of the Sochi meeting was on the situation in Afghanistan. But it also provided an opportunity for Moscow to turn a page on its relations with Islamabad. For decades these relations had been poisoned, first by Pakistan siding with the United States in the Cold War against the Soviet Union, then by its providing the stage for Mujahideen operations against the Soviet forces in Afghanistan and later by providing the training ground for Chechen rebels. Even after Moscow overcame its bitter memories of the past, relations with Islamabad remained low key. President Pervez Musharraf's visit to Moscow in 2003, first by a Pakistan leader in 33 years, helped to clear the air but failed to break the ice. Russia-Pakistan relations continued to be defined by Moscow's ties with India.

Sochi was a turning point. Mr. Medvedev's bilateral meeting with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari on the sidelines of the summit was marked by uncharacteristic warmth. Noting that "unlike in the past," he and Mr. Zardari established "very regular, frequent contacts," and were engaged in "good political dialogue," Mr. Medvedev called for the two countries "to expand our economic ties too." He lamented that Russia and Pakistan "have not made much progress in this area yet," and suggested that the two leaders look at "opportunities for our bilateral economic cooperation and development" as well as "possibilities of working together in a four-party format."

Mr. Medvedev invited Mr. Zardari to pay an official visit to Russia, while the Pakistani leader extended a similar invitation to his host. Mr. Zardari pointedly noted that it was his fourth meeting with Mr. Medvedev — an unprecedented intensity of interaction, even though all four meetings were held on the sidelines of multilateral events. Next on the agenda is a stand-alone summit. According to Mr. Medvedev's foreign policy aide Sergei Prikhodko, "We are interested in a full-scale visit by the Pakistani President to Russia."

In another breakthrough for Pakistan, Mr. Medvedev in Sochi gave the green signal for an inaugural meeting of the Russian-Pakistani Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade and Economic and Scientific-Technological Cooperation in Islamabad this month. The two countries agreed to set up the joint commission 10 years ago but Moscow has, till now, blocked its launch.

TWO CONCLUSIONS

Two main conclusions can be drawn from the Medvedev-Zardari meeting: the Russian-Pakistani dialogue has, for the first time, been promoted to the level of Presidents; and Moscow has overcome its reluctance to develop full-fledged relations with Islamabad. The only taboo for Russia still is sale of weapons to Pakistan but its defence technologies have been trickling into Pakistan, mostly through third countries. Ukrainian main battle tanks, T-80, supplied to Pakistan in the 1990s, had Russian-built key systems and components. Following a "private" visit to Russia by Gen. Musharraf and an official visit by army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani last summer, Russia lifted its objections to the supply to Pakistan of Chinese JF-17 fighter planes powered by Russian RD-93 engines. Many years ago, Russia had sold Pakistan over 40 MI-171 transport helicopters of a non-military version.

What has made the Moscow turnaround is the realisation that seeing Islamabad as part of the region's problems does not help to advance the Russian goal of playing a bigger role in the region. The Kremlin finally decided that Pakistan must be part of the solution. The format of four-way cooperation with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan should help Moscow prepare for the eventual pullback of the U.S.-led forces from Afghanistan: engage Pakistan, return to Afghanistan and tighten Russian hold over the former Soviet Central Asia.

Russia has assiduously been building the new format over the past year. Mr. Medvedev first met the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan in Yekaterinburg last summer on the sidelines of an annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. At their second meeting in Dushanbe, the trilateral format was expanded to the quadripartite configuration incorporating Tajikistan, which has by far the longest border — 1,200 km — with Afghanistan among the former Soviet states.

In Sochi, the new forum, which Mr. Medvedev described as "a working regional format," was institutionalised as a permanent arrangement, independent of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a defence bloc of former Soviet states focussed on Central Asia. The quartet announced that its next summit would take place in Dushanbe and that the foreign and economic ministers of the four countries would hold regular meetings as well.

A joint statement adopted in Sochi highlighted the problems of terrorism and drug-trafficking, which are a source of profound concern for Russia. However, it is joint economic projects that dominated the summit agenda. Russia agreed to join two long-planned regional infrastructure projects that would create energy and transport corridors from Central Asia to Pakistan across Afghanistan.

One project, CASA-1000 (Central Asia-South Asia), involves the export of electricity from power-rich Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Russia is prepared to help to build two hydropower plants in the Central Asian states that will supply electricity for the project. The World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) earlier agreed to finance the construction of power lines to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The other project is a motor road and a railway from Tajikistan to Pakistan across the Wakhan corridor in extreme northeast Afghanistan — a buffer the British created at the end of the 19th century between the Russian and British empires. The proposed transport link resurrecting the ancient Silk Road would be a strategic gain for the countries involved. Pakistan will receive direct access to the markets of Central Asia and Russia, while Tajikistan — and Russia — will get access to Pakistani ports. China will also stand to gain, as the road is likely to be linked with the Karakorum Highway connecting Pakistan with China's Xinjiang region.

"Russia may become a donor of economic, social and military-political security for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan," Chairman of the Russian Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee Konstantin Kosachev said commenting on the Sochi summit. In Sochi, Mr. Medvedev renewed Russia's offer to rebuild about 140 industrial and infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, which the Soviet Union set up during its 10-year military intervention. The deals may be worth over $1 billion, and may entail further Russian investments in Afghanistan's oil, gas and minerals. Russia's comeback will also encourage many of the 2,00,000 Soviet-educated Afghans, who fled the Taliban to Russia, to return to their homeland.

MILITARY INVOLVEMENT

Putting behind it the painful experience of the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan, Moscow indicated the willingness to become militarily involved in Afghanistan. Mr. Medvedev told President Hamid Karzai that Russia was ready to supply Mi-17 helicopters and firearms, and help to train more Afghan police. The U.S., which is crafting an exit strategy in Afghanistan, welcomed Russia's new role in the region.

The Barack Obama administration has "a regional strategy for both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Russia can play an important role along with other countries in the region," Assistant Secretary of State Philip J. Crowley was quoted as saying in a comment on the Sochi summit. Russia is giving considerable support to the U.S. in Afghanistan in line with the broader "reset" in their bilateral ties, but Washington of course is overly presumptuous to think that Moscow will toe its "strategy" in the region, assuming, of course, that the White House has one.

India could theoretically gain from joint economic projects mooted by Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Some Russian analysts have even suggested that Russia might try to incorporate India in the new alliance. This possibility, however, looks highly remote given the current state of relations between New Delhi and Islamabad. Pakistan has dug in its feet on allowing Indian exports through its territory under the recently concluded Afghanistan-Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement (APTTA). Meanwhile, the APTTA grants Pakistan the right to trade with Central Asia via the Wakhan corridor. Unless New Delhi succeeds in turning around its relations with Islamabad, it will stand to lose in a big way when a new transport corridor links Pakistan with Central Asia.

The Sochi summit also dimmed India's hopes of gaining a strategic foothold in Tajikistan. India and Russia had planned to jointly use the Ayni airfield, which India helped to renovate, but Indian presence there looks doubtful now in the context of the emerging Russia-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Tajikistan axis. India will, of course, remain Russia's close friend and strategic partner, but it will have to learn to live with the new Russian-Pakistani bonhomie, just as Russia has taken in its stride India's entanglement with the U.S.
 

hit&run

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There are many Powers Interested in Afghanistan one of them is Russia. As long as Pakistan has strategic interest in Astan and support for Taliban, Russia will always keep Pakistan deprived of what Indian are now concerned. India can afford not to be bothered about Russia jumping too and fro.
 
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Tshering22

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Yeah.. remember we have the resources and the capabilities 100 times more than Pakistan to offer Russia a lot of support in the region. Pakistani government (puppet state) might be against Taliban but the ISI and their men are with Taliban and FSB knows this. So this is simply an eyewash for something that Russia is seaprately planning big. It is simple logic to wonder what Pakistan can offer Russia: NOTHING.

We need to start acting on Afghanistan with Russians ASAP.
 

hit&run

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Russia, Iran and Afghanistan, all of them will be hostile to Taliban who is fairly supported by Pakistan even today. Taliban has done damage to Iran and Russia in Past.

The checkmate will be if Pakistan able to hatch a deal between US Talib and Karzai. I have given my view before some where here that there will be possibility that Afghanistan will be divided or a solution of power sharing will be worked out in that case. It all depends on USA now if she will listen to Pakistan or not or will have the stamina to stay in Astan. As for now the Pakistani Propaganda machinery has already started the Propaganda that USA is going to stay in Astan for longer or may have permanent bases. The pressure is on USA and Russia will be more proactive when USA will leave the area.
Otherwise Russia will tilt towards Pakistan for sure due to American presence in Astan. USA presence ensures less alarmed Russia from Islamic Jihadi and peace in Chechnya.

Now it looks contradictory to topic in hand, But Pakistan will always prefer to win Astan again over its friendship with Russia. Longer the USA will stay more positive Russia will think about Pakistan. Same situation is with India, whether india would like US to leave Afghanistan and make future Alliances with Russia and Iran. The Answer is very simple that there will be no strategic advantage to India in either case. Better is if USA and world communities remain involved in Astan for longer time. India will be able to safe guard its investments. At the end of the day Astan will be fiercely independent state and its is the only common sense which should prevail. Pakistan will be Pakistan forever and free to think Afghanistan as its backyard.
 

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