India, China, US will be in uneasy strategic triangle:

Ray

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India, China, US will be in uneasy strategic triangle: Uday Bhaskar

Despite the steep fall in the value of the Indian rupee and the mood of despondency in the country over the economy, the world will witness over the next two decades the emergence of three large single-state economies, namely China, US and India, but the relationship between them will be "uneasy", a leading Indian strategic analyst suggested here Monday.

"While these three states will maintain robust trade and economic ties impelled by globalization, their strategic and security will be discordant and uneasy," said C. Uday Bhaskar, delivering a lecture at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

The bilaterals between the three states are leavened by a complex triangular relationship - the uneasy critical strategic triangle of the early 21st century, wherein cooperation and contrarian compulsions shape the policy response, said Bhaskar, a former acting director of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) and currently a Distinguished Fellow at the Society for Policy Studies (SPS).

India's most challenging strategic interlocutors over the last five decades have been China and the US, he said. In the first phase, the security policies of these two states and their Cold War strategic orientation were perceived to be inimical to India's interests.

In South Asia, the strategic partnership/major ally status accorded to Pakistan by both these states and the tacit endorsement and direct support given to the latter's nuclear capability only served to exacerbate Indian anxiety and misgivings.

A tentative rapprochement was effected with China during the Rajiv Gandhi years and despite the fact that there has been no tangible movement on the complex territorial and border dispute - the Sino-Indian dyad remains relatively stable, intrusions across the Line of Actual Control (LOAC) notwithstanding, Bhaskar said.

However, despite the growing trade ties and the high-level political contact - this is an uneasy and contradictory relationship, he noted.

With the US, an acrimonious bilateral relationship had been described as one between "estranged democracies".

The Indian nuclear tests of May 1998 resulted in a review of the relationship and the Clinton visit to Delhi of March 2000 marked the beginning of the thaw.

However the more radical decision to admit India into the global nuclear framework was enabled by then US president George Bush in mid-2005 and reached fruition in late 2008.

"The strategic culture and political pedigree associated with each of these states, played out against the inexorable imperative of globalization, will define the contours in which this lattice - while seeking equipoise - will more likely experience episodic turbulence and contestation in the security and strategic domain," Bhaskar concluded.

India, China, US will be in uneasy strategic triangle: Uday Bhaskar - The Economic Times

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amoy

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What a flatter for China to be mentioned along with India and US strategically?!!

However, more practically the equation shall include China, Russia and US only in the years to come -

A Russia-China Alliance Brewing? | The Diplomat
Framing the relationship between Beijing and Moscow is an issue with both domestic and international implications for both countries. Domestically, Beijing's leaders want to convey to their people that China's rise is accepted and respected by major world powers. Similarly Russia, whose relations with major Western powers has deteriorated since the re-election of President Putin, appreciates the respect that comes from Xi Jinping's selection of Moscow for his first visit abroad as China's new leader.

Bilaterally, both Beijing and Moscow are looking to leverage their relationship to enhance their leaders' standing domestically and maximize their influence among world powers. At the same time, they hope to avoid the costs they would incur if other states felt the need to counter-balance a renewed bond between Russia and China. Neither party seeks a world where their relationship is viewed as the second coming of the Sino-Soviet axis of the Cold War.

In the realm of bilateral energy trade, China's goal is to acquire as much cheap and reliable energy as possible without relying too heavily on any single-nation source, which could be disrupted by an unexpected bilateral crisis. For its part, Moscow wants to retain as much leverage as possible over the price of the natural resources it sells and to avoid becoming dependent upon China as a destination for its energy exports.
Also mentioned in numerous threads on the Arctic passages, SCO as a security, economic & energy bloc, counter "Pivot to Asia Pacific" cooperation etc. etc.
 
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