India China LAC & International Border Discussions

[IndianHawk]

My point is, even if it leads to war, I don't think we will initiate it.
If they don't go back to beyond F8, we will see an extended period of talks & further disengagement, may be where the Chinese moves back by 500m & India has to do the same.

My problem is, why is India moving back? Does that not allow China, to rush and capture the entire grey area created by this disengagement? You might say, if they do it, it will lead to war, and it might, but there is also a chance of more dialogs, meetings and all those BS! In this fiasco, the entire narrative was, India wants "peace", "tranquility", "disengagement", bla bla bla. This doesn't send the desired message to the opposition & portrays us as week.

Now only time will tell how we will deal with the Chinese. My gut says that China will come back when the weather and terrain are suitable, it is just matter of time.

You are jumping to conclusions which have no basis in fact.

The talks are going own to restore status quo before April. In that status quo both armies move back a bit from lac at galwan , hotspring etc. As they were before April. No land lost of gained for anyone there .

And restoring of grey area at f4-f8 which is contested as of now. That India will move back from f4 is a figment of your imagination. Nothing else. So hold tight and see what changes actually happen on ground no point in running wild imaginations.

 

[AmitG]

Distance from the Chinese post inside Galwan to DSDBO Raod (not Leh -DBO Raod) is about 6 - 7 km. But that is immaterial becuse the raod is within the range of almost entire Chinese artillery deployed in Sub Sector North and Galwan Sector including Pengang Tso.

What matters is observed fire. If PP 14 is with the Chinese they can observe all movements on near Post 120 on Road DSDBO. However observed Fire can be brought on this raod from hundreds of other heights and Nallahs along the LAC.
except during winters.
What then matters is that Galwan valley is the easiest and nearest way to capture this road and physical occupy the it. Galwan has a raod axix and this means it is an easy axis to attack the road. Thirdly this PP14 location can be developed into all weather post and thus will be the only observation point in this entire area during winters.

The question of DSDBO raod is also a bit overstated, Area Murgo and area DBO North of it is also connected by another Summer raod passing through Nubra valley west of Karakorum ranges. Hence building up forces to DBO without of Chinese observation is assured via that route. Logistics stocking etc can be carried out from there also. What is significant about DSDBO raod is that it the only link during winters. it is wide raod and capable of taking heavy movement. Besides it is directly linked to Rupasi Manali Raod without going towards Leh.

DSDBO road runs parallel to LAC and thus vital for LAC managements. All feeder roads leading to LAC in Galwan and Northern sector will emanate from it.

Next step probably would be to construct 4-6 km tunnel in front of Galwan River - Shyok confluence. But the importance of Galwan valley Road can not be neutralized because that the central road from which all Chinese feeder roads emanate towards LAC... such as Gogra. Hot spring. Kongka and Pengang Tso.

The DSDBO road is a peace time road and not a war time road. It is too close to the LAC and as mentioned can be easily interdicted by the Chinese at various points. The purpose of the road is to enable movement and supply of our posts in peace time. In times of conflict the alternate road being built to DBO will need to be used for troop movements and supply to protect DBO and the Depsang plains.

In the current situation what is worrying is that nothing much is being heard about the incursions in the Depsang plains. I hope we are not giving away land there.

 

[AmitG]

If Aksai chin would trigger nuclear war then what makes you think parting Tibet woudn't... for Chinese Tibet is more important than Aksai chin

Dint say we have to be involved in the liberation of Tibet . Just mentioned that in the current state ,the only way is if China breaks up and Tibet becomes independent.

 

[defc0n]

You are jumping to conclusions which have no basis in fact.

The talks are going own to restore status quo before April. In that status quo both armies move back a bit from lac at galwan , hotspring etc. As they were before April. No land lost of gained for anyone there .

And restoring of grey area at f4-f8 which is contested as of now. That India will move back from f4 is a figment of your imagination. Nothing else. So hold tight and see what changes actually happen on ground no point in running wild imaginations.

Status quo ante is China beyond F8. Let's see if that happens. My points are based on past behaviour of the Chinese. If that is not enough to basis a hypothesis, I don't know what is. Also, I agree, that there is no point running wild imaginations, time will tell if my understanding of how China functions and how we function are correct or wrong. I would very much like to be proven wrong in this case.

 

[defc0n]

Hmm.. Ok.

 

[fire starter]

You are jumping to conclusions which have no basis in fact.

The talks are going own to restore status quo before April. In that status quo both armies move back a bit from lac at galwan , hotspring etc. As they were before April. No land lost of gained for anyone there .

And restoring of grey area at f4-f8 which is contested as of now. That India will move back from f4 is a figment of your imagination. Nothing else. So hold tight and see what changes actually happen on ground no point in running wild imaginations.

India will move back to it's April post in f4 we will not vacate it.

 

[fire starter]

another objective of China got failed.

 

[Arihant]

Ekdum Dadaji ke jaisa apna Pappu @Arihant @utubekhiladi

Family is dangerous for our country. Their party to party agreement between Congress-I ana CCP should be in public.

 

[Bhadra]

Hero Motocorp cancelling part supply deals with China. Bhagwa Hindu shers compared to the congi cucks that Bajaj is.

Good... I am holding 4000 shares of Motherson Sumi . those will rise up now..

there is no dearth of auto parts manufacturers in India who are going broke because of China ... they will start ding well...

 

[utubekhiladi]

After India, Now US And Australia Also Looking At Banning TikTok And Chinese Social Media Apps

After India, Now US And Australia Also Looking At Banning TikTok And Chinese Social Media Apps - News18

TikTok is trying to take a stand and is saying they will exit Hong Kong within the next few days. The company says they are pausing review of requests made by the Hong Kong government for user data as a reaction to the new national security laws that China has imposed in Hong Kong

www.news18.com

 

[defc0n]

 

[cereal killer]

Agree on the first part, that this was a tactical retreat.
However, disagree on the second part - The narrative has not been controlled by India courtesy of our defensive posture. China wants to be the aggressor - they don't give a damn about what other countries think of them. This is the image they want to have & we have helped them retain it.

From the Chinese point of view - it was their land, they took it, as simple as that.
From our point of view - the land is ours, and what we do instead is negotiate over something that is non-negotiable. End result, a disengagement over terms that are total mystery to the general public as what happened in those meetings are not open to the general public. More over, we had to move back by 2KMs to match the Chinese, when it was China who came into our land. Now what they have successfully done is denied us access of those 2KMs our own land. That entire grey zone is now at their mercy and who will show the intent first will capture it & we all who that will be!!

I think you are grossly underestimating the fact the disadvantages that an aggressor holds. You know Chinese media & CCP has shown their people that India is aggressor & changing the status quo while the outside world has painted China as aggressor led by CCP that needs to be controlled. US & west did the same to India in 1971 by painting us as aggressors. As I said this isn't over & I agree that chest thumping will not do here. I won't say galwan is a grey area as of now. Let's see what happens after one or two months when access to Galwan is feasible to both sides.

 

[Bhadra]

Are Phir pitoge salo..
Rahane do... tumse na ho paayega..

 

[utubekhiladi]

Ekdum Dadaji ke jaisa apna Pappu @Arihant @utubekhiladi

moti ne raul vinchi ka izzat ka faluda kardiya

 

[defc0n]

I think you are grossly underestimating the fact the disadvantages that an aggressor holds. You know Chinese media & CCP has shown their people that India is aggressor & changing the status quo while the outside world has painted China as aggressor led by CCP that needs to be controlled. US & west did the same to India in 1971 by painting us as aggressors. As I said this isn't over & I agree that chest thumping will not do here. I won't say galwan is a grey area as of now. Let's see what happens after one or two months when access to Galwan is feasible to both sides.

Fair enough. Let's wait and watch. However, along with disadvantage there are some advantages of being the aggressor as well, the most important is the initiative and momentum. The initial advantage is always with the one who attacks first. Maintaining it is a different story. Anyway, too early for all that. Lets wait and see where things go from here.

 

[defc0n]

Interesting. Predetermined time. Are we putting too much faith on the Chinese?

 

[fire starter]

Now some people will claim that it was tactic by China but their actual intention was some thing else. But still they got failed

This could be the following intentions of China.
To stop infrastructure.
Result- infrastructure will continue to grow on our side now even at faster rate.
obective- failed.
To stop formation of quad.
Result- Quad is already operational now only formal announcement has to be made by leaders of 4 countries.
objective- failed.
To get trade concessions.
Result- suffered billions in losses.
Objective- failed.
To weaken the image of nationalist govt.
Result- modi has become even more popular as first time in history Chinese tactic of salami slicing and then getting concessions has failed.
objective - failed.

 

[defc0n]

 

[Bhadra]

The DSDBO road is a peace time road and not a war time road. It is too close to the LAC and as mentioned can be easily interdicted by the Chinese at various points. The purpose of the road is to enable movement and supply of our posts in peace time. In times of conflict the alternate road being built to DBO will need to be used for troop movements and supply to protect DBO and the Depsang plains.

In the current situation what is worrying is that nothing much is being heard about the incursions in the Depsang plains. I hope we are not giving away land there.

Pl read the accounts of 1962 Operations in DBO..
19/20 October when Chinese attacked India DBO and Kahrgungla were snow bound and there was no way of withdrawal but via shyok. River...

That much for your war / peace..

 

[CuriousIndian]

Whether someone agrees or disagrees on who won or lost this 'battle'. No one can disagree that China learnt a few hard lessons from this skirmish,

a) IA in Ladakh is more than capable of taking on China, it is our restraint keeping us from causing bloodshed

b) Should the need arise for full blown war, we are more than capable to mobilise in days, and not weeks.

c) India has China beat diplomatically. All that money, yet China stood alone (colonies like Pakistan don't count).

For Indian thinktank however it should be a worry now that China know our response time, we need to be extra wary of a surprise infiltration or sneak attack from them.