India China LAC & International Border Discussions

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Lancer

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I highly doubt, this aggression is done by China, i think is BJP trying to to catch 22 game with china to see how far they can play the game, when China is weak ( covid, taiwan, hongkong, US hovering over all south china sea), This is perfect timing to annex POK, given the fact India has already heavily activated the Balochistan. Pakistan military and politician PM giving Indian threat warning to World.
1. US will keep china engage in south china sea for next couple of month. at this time China cant engage India heavily on border side.
2. Pakistan is at weakest and divided point in OIC (India got the right Muslim party back)
3. Financially Pak is broken
4. World recession has started, no more FDI coming to india for next few year due to recession, hence risk of war making economy impact is at lowest.

All stars are aligned at this time. I think Amit Shah will be give another quick surprise to world this time. I think a large and strategic part of PoK will be annsexed soon.

All China LAC is just the front face, while actual war planning is on western border happening in the background.
Seems like a dream scenario, so I'm skeptical, but I sure as hell hope you're right.
 

amit204

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Seems like a dream scenario, so I'm skeptical, but I sure as hell hope you're right.
Revocation of article 370, balakot strike were also seems far fetched but they happened.
1. Indian army for sure know that if they construct road too close to border, Chinese will obstruct. so the question is at very first place Indian expected this, this was not surprise. if they knew this is coming, they could have construct the road when the relation are better, why they construct the road at this time when China is weak. Think about it.

Dhoval is time opportunist. He is exporting the Chinese weak moment at this time.
a. ) 200 Million job employement in china due to covid.
b.) World pressure for pendimic inqury
c) taiwan and hongkong another headache
d) US hovering over south china sea.

I dont think at this moment, China was a deliberate intrustion in Ladakh and that also at this time. if they wanted they would do at more healthy time.
 
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EarthCitizen

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How much time it will take to our government to construct railway track from
Bilaspur-Manali-Leh railway line? Has there any construction activities that started there or not? How It will help our army if it gets constructed early?
 

Akula

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How much time it will take to our government to construct railway track from
Bilaspur-Manali-Leh railway line? How It will help our army if it gets constructed early?
I don't think we can see Bilaspur-Manali-Leh Railway line before 2028. Right now surveying is going on, than DPR's will prepared, permission will be granted and than construction will start. But after seeing the construction speed of Rishikesh to Karnprayag railway line, I am hopeful construction may start early.
 

Neil

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Army Chief Naravane’s 2012 prophecy on Chinese strategy rings true in Ladakh sector

Given that India has been upgrading its infrastructure along the border with China since 2014, officials say some amount of border friction is going to be the reality of the day


Back in the autumn of 2012, a senior faculty member at the Mhow-based Army War College published a paper on the China’s war zone campaign (WZC). Beijing would, the army officer argued, seek to coerce smaller adversaries into acceding to China’s demand through graded threat of force or actual use of force till its ends are met.

The officer, then Brigadier Manoj Mukund Naravane, wrote that the political objective of this Chinese concept is unveiled by “occupation of certain un-held tract of land or high value targets’. This would be done through elite forces.

The first would be the domination-cum-deterrence (DCD) phase where the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would focus on building up its presence in the territory in question to deter the enemy. In the second phase, Gaining Initiative by Striking First (GISF), it would deploy rapid reaction units to strike first to wrest the initiative from the enemy. The last stage is the Quick Battle Quick Resolution where the PLA would use a dedicated division level force. But the PLA, the senior army officer said in his seminal paper published in Scholar Warrior, a journal published by the Delhi-based think tank Center For Land Warfare Studies, expects to achieve its objective in the first two phases.

As the Indian Army Chief now, General Manoj Mukund Naravane is faced with a WZC situation along the 3,488 kilometre long Line of Actual Control (LAC) with PLA opening multiple fronts in western and eastern sectors while the world including India battles the Covid-19 pandemic that has its origins in central China’s Wuhan city. The Chinese aggressive manoeuvres also entail the PLA moving support elements in depth areas of eastern Ladakh.

Although Gen Naravane didn’t refer to it in his 2012 paper, national security planners say the key to the Chinese WZC concept is deception coupled with state of the art intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.

The top army officer was clear that the only way to counter the WZC strategy is to thwart Chinese designs in the initial two, DCD and GISF, stages.

Beijing did have the initial advantage when it moved soldiers to Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso in eastern Ladakh. The Chinese army had built roads right up to their claim line and could move in troops quickly, once it decided to activate them.

This advantage now stands neutralised with Indian force levels building up over the past weeks. The Indian Army is also staring at the aggressor with troops holding their positions and not allowing the Red Army to brow beat them at Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso.

Top government officials told Hindustan Times that the security establishment did realise that India’s northern borders would remain turbulent for some time to come after New Delhi decided to upgrade its border infrastructure in 2014.

For decades, India had been debating the extent and pace of creating border infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control with China. Beijing, meanwhile, kept building railway tracks and roads. This meant that the Chinese PLA patrols along the border often went uncontested.

This started to change after India matching up the build up to a degree and earmarking its claim line through regular patrols. And this friction is expected to continue unless both sides exchange maps of their respective positions in both the eastern and the western sector.

The situation in the middle sector is far better after both sides exchanged maps in 2002. So both sides now know the exact disputed territory. The western sector maps were shared but never exchanged at the behest of Chinese; the eastern sector maps were not even shared.

While China openly covets Arunachal Pradesh as its territory, its long term game in eastern Ladakh could be to cut through Galwan-Murgo axis to provide an all weather alternative to the Karakoram highway, which enters Pakistan through Khunjerab Pass and not Karakoram pass north of Indian positions of Daulet Beg Oldi.

However, with the Indian Army digging into its positions to face the aggressor, the long drawn out mobilization may not work for the PLA as the law of diminishing returns comes into play like in the protracted 1979 Sino-Vietnam war. Status quo ante is the only viable option as it leaves both sides with a win-win situation.

 

Rassil Krishnan

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That's exactly what there goal is . Gdp growth is to buy public support for ccp rule. They have to keep millions of new graduate employed otherwise unrest would follow as they don't have democratic channels to blow of steam.

But rest of the world won't aspire to that. We are too poor so we think Chinese level of wealth would be wonderful but most of the world is already that wealthy and couldn't care less for chinese model.
Even we are now growing as fast as China with a democracy too boot.( One of the reasons why Chinese hate India) .

If china has to emerge as an power that other follow it will have to achieve western level of wealth and it will have to build institutions which support it's vision.
Such institution can't be build without other major powers ( India Europe) and such wealth can't be acquired without western level of individual freedom and property rights .

Even now every rich Chinese invests most of his wealth outside china as his property is not secure in china.

It's not a coincidence that western countries are so rich and so ahead in science and innovation it's all intricably linked with individual freedom and property right with patents all of which drive research and innovation and entrepreneurship.

All the successful Chinese companies have till date only excelled in delivering final produts whose design and components are all developed in West.

Nothing groundbreaking new science have emerged from china despite so much investment.
I don't understand our nationalists tendencies to measure china through Western often anti national lens.

GDP is not everything.a nationalist governments aim is to uplift its and only it's peoples wealth and also ensure stable cultural and demographic supremacy of the native population in their own country.

In both these respects china is doing well especially in the latter.

I don't care about democracy of the west if that means their native peoples can't aggressively or subtly establish their writ in terms of culture and demographics of their own country.

Most of these democracies are pure messes in terms of ownership and it will be a pure hell in coming decades with lots of diversity.

As for freedoms and rights,as an indian beyond a point they are way overrated and often used to undermine us.

And a higer GDP per capita does not mean anything if your local population is not allowed to protest job ofshoring like in the west without being insulted and called various isms by their own leaders.

Atleast defacto I know even though that CCP of today does not hate their countrymen, country and culture as compared to the average western liberal anti national that are filled in the western leadership which is ironic when you think that CCP originally was against traditions and old practices.

They are defacto nationalist and the way they deal with muslim uighers and western operatives is how you deal with internal enemies.

Criticize the CCP.

But criticize based on nationalist lens or as India's adversary instead because the west told you or some liberal told you.
 

Hellfire

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May be they're preparing for eventual war. Seems they have calculated this stand off will turn ugly which may turn into limited conflict. Protecting there citizens prior to escalation

Possibility of a 'limited' conflict is highly there The issue is that Prez Xi is facing the greatest challenge to his hold over the leadership as Chinese face increased job losses and moving out of the industries from China, killing its export led growth.

Indian moves to have the COVID 19 investigated with respect to weaponization and suppression of information, managing to get Sh JP Nadda in on the team (which China wanted to avoid if rumors are to be believed), moving Malaysia and Maldives out of Chinese 'orbit', permitting Taiwan's investments within India, scrutinizing all Chinese investments within India and putting conditions on them along with greater official examination ... and repeated claim over GB and PoJ&K as a policy .. sure was going to put pressure on Prez Xi.
 
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