Hello everyone. Long time lurker here (I think since 2013-2014). Lost the old account creds. This thread seemed to have stayed quite civil and objective till now. So I figured I will put some two cents. I followed China and related news for a long time, but am no way is an expert. Let me try to objectively rationalise the "why's" of CCP's actions in the recent years. If I look like regurgitating known information, I apologise. But I hope that someone will find the information useful.
As you can see, there has been a growing trend of unfavourable opinion about China in the recent decades. Much of it has spiked after Xi came into power. This is not a coincidence. And unlike what Communists might want you to believe, not completely a result of western propaganda. Such views are only reflections of China's increasing hostility and belligerence towards other countries. In 2012, during the Beijing olympics, China came off as an ally. However, the world no longer sees China as such. I think it is important to realise that this is not only about India, even Russia, China's closest friend, has a relation that should be described as "cold acquaintances". But if you ask, "why" China went ahead and chose to willingly disrupt it's reputation, you might have some curious answers. Let me try to argue for some of them.
1. Housing Crisis : You may have heard of Evergrande. However, this had been a long time in coming. Take a look at
this video from 2 years ago heralding the coming onslaught (and
one from 8 years ago if you are really curious). If you watch the full video, you will understand what a vicious cycle the Chinese housing market is in. In a nutshell : Center takes 60% of tax but local government is responsible for 80% of the cost of infrastructure development. Local governments are forbade from taking loans, so the only way they can raise money is by selling land to developers through state run vessels. So they are caught in an endless cycle of selling land for homes/flats/office spaces in inferior construction. This results in videos like
this. Do note that this is not a China only thing. But this is so severe in China, they have a special name for it: "Tofu Dreg" construction. People also buy homes as a result of the "Hakuo" (may have butchered the name) system of government. Recall that a Chinese may rent in a city, but he is not a resident of that city unless he owns a home in that city. This also means that he does not get access to the well funded city public schools, or cannot use the city's amenities. This is one reason there is so many "left at village with grandparents children" in China. However, the moment they buy a studio apartment in Shenzhen, they can bring their kids in. Thus housing prices in some cities might be CRAZY high. For instance, price/sq ft in Shenzhen is $8000, but average monthly salary is $500. Moreover, government regulates strict downpayments and mortgage rates. So, extended families pool together money to buy a home. But another reason that the housing market was still exploding (and in no-name ghost cities) might be the next.
2. Demographics : China is ageing, and really really fast. Right now, the median age in China just crossed 38.4. For reference, in India, it is close to 25. Fertility rate in China is 1.7. For reference, in Russia, it is 1.5 and they consider it a national emergency. However, on the flip side, language barrier and opaque system of governance means that China is extremely xenophobic as a country. There is almost no immigration in comparison to US or EU. But this does not only mean that China is losing it's demographic dividend. It also means that more and more,
a. A shrinking working class needs to supply the social security/pensions of the retirees.
b. The number of "consumers" (people earning fat checks and spending huge sums on money on luxury goods like iPhones and vacations. Typically ages 40-60) is also shrinking. This means trillions of dollars of burden on the government. This means the GDP growth is also shrinking. This also means that due to millions of forced abortions (and due to cultural male child preferences), between 2020-2060, there would be about 66 single women for every 100 single men. We can see this effect today. And this comes back to the housing crisis. Men in China buy homes as status symbol (also, the stock market is unpredictable and houses are the only alternative investments) and fierce competition for a bride. Recall, that China may be rich, but an average Chinese is still very poor compared to an average citizen in many developed nations. Also recall, unless they force people to have babies at gunpoint is no single thing that CPC can do to magically fix this. Due to their unique Hakuo system detailed above, people cannot afford to work in the city and have more children. Also, child care is expensive (both financially and time-wise), and there is no way a working couple can support raising too many children. However, one might wonder why there is not much news of protests in face of such looming crises. This brings me to my next point.
3. Internal Security : China spends an exorbitant amount in internal security. In fact, it spends more on internal security than it does on external security. Communists have tried to convince me that such spending is necessary in face of "Western Propaganda Warfare" but I remain skeptic. China's own propaganda apparatus is immense. I do not know if you remember this, (and all references pertaining to this seems to be absent from internet) but shortly after the Doklam stand-off, I started seeing a google ad (sometimes even in DFI) with a picture depicting the Chinese version of the border and how that is the real border. Clicking on the ad will bring you to a single web page written in Chinese and no other links. This was worrying to me at that time. It showed me just how far ahead China was at disinformation that India/Bhutan. The gap has only widened since. Now CPC techniques are more sophisticated. And they have utilised highly sophisticated deep learning facial recognition algorithms and massive surveillance to surgically remove dissent, quash rebellion, and purge defectors/whistleblowers. I hate to be refer one source twice, but
this video has summarised many key ideas like no other. We all know about Tiennaman square massacre, but an average Chinese only has faint alludes to some "July 4th Incident". (To be fair, most countries do this. I did not recall reading about Sanjoy Gandhi's forced sterilisation campaigns in history books, while I read about Jillianwalagabh. But the difference is how thorough CPC is about this. I grew up and came to know about Sanjoy's misadventures. But most Chinese, even now living abroad does not know about it or its scale) In face of insurmountable obstacles described above, CPC must "act tough" in front of Chinese citizens. Because they realise that the legitimacy of CPC is on very fragile grounds of endless development and GDP growths. The moment this growth stops, all fingers will point the the CPC. This is a reason for their increasingly "wolf warrior" tactics. China hates the world -> They hate China back -> Stoke nationalism -> China hates the world. And the cycle goes on.
Thus, it comes back to how I started. This might explain why in recent decades, negative perceptions about China are skyrocketing abroad. Someone with better understanding about the topic can explain to me if I am wrong, but my opinion is CPC knows the house of cards they are building. Hence, in face of weakness, China must appear, strong, decisive, and independent. They must stoke hate against other nations, create false enemies, and fuel nationalism. Keep the citizens barking "outwards" so that the "dog" does not bite the "owner".
I hope at least some of you found this informative. I have tried to be objective and unbiased, and keep my opinions away. This took about 90 minutes to write, so I hope you find at least some use of it. At least, the next time when you fight with a CPC sympathizer, my hope is you are armed with a bit more perspective about them. After all, as Sun Tzu says, "Know your enemy, and victory would be yours". I also note that I had to be EXCEEDINGLY brief in my writing due to time/scope constraints. I might be interested in explaining further if I ever get a better opportunity.
Classic Kargil style bunker with PLA troops hunkered with there LMGs
