India-China Border conflict

Knowitall

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properly harbor

I am talking about War that will conclude in one month. Any thing longer than that will involve a lot more entities and sabotage which will criple both. Ask China if they are ready for it.

Also read my post which I wrote months ago on Pearl harbour attack response or lack of response of USA against Japan before detailing history and the evolution that expands into many years.

The context and variables which helped USA will not help or repeat for economies like China when it will start a war against opponent India.

It is good to have a generic grasp of History to fill the space but imposing it's conclusions on present day scenarios is far from plausible IMOH.
Why do you assume that the war will conclude in a month.

If anything looking at the Russian Ukrainian conflict or the Vietnam Fiasco it becomes apparent that the global powers tend to Duke things out to the bitter end no matter how bas the situation is.

Looking at Russia and how the long the war has continued and the resilience of their economy i very much doubt the Chinese would face anything worse when their economy is much more industrialized and import export oriented. Europe and US have pretty much failed at crippling Russia which is more of a renfri state so i absolutely don't see why they would fare any better against a proper manufacturing powerhouse.

I don't expect the Chinese to just grab a win against us if we ever clash far from it infact but in general terms i do expect them to better respond to attrition and machinary losses. On the other hand India too has a lot of advantages in the form of infrastructure natural borders and the general Terrain of NE.

From all the battles we have seen though out history quantity manufacturing supremacy and logistics are the key features in any sort of prolonged war. One of the prime reasons why Germany lost both the world wars was because of its over reliance on the doctrine of fast based attacks or what we call today as blitzkrieg. Once dragged into an attrition based conflict they eventually ended up on the losing side.

I would request you to tag your post on pearl harbor as i was unable to find it.
 

Kumaoni

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Why do you assume that the war will conclude in a month.

If anything looking at the Russian Ukrainian conflict or the Vietnam Fiasco it becomes apparent that the global powers tend to Duke things out to the bitter end no matter how bas the situation is.

Looking at Russia and how the long the war has continued and the resilience of their economy i very much doubt the Chinese would face anything worse when their economy is much more industrialized and import export oriented. Europe and US have pretty much failed at crippling Russia which is more of a renfri state so i absolutely don't see why they would fare any better against a proper manufacturing powerhouse.

I don't expect the Chinese to just grab a win against us if we ever clash far from it infact but in general terms i do expect them to better respond to attrition and machinary losses. On the other hand India too has a lot of advantages in the form of infrastructure natural borders and the general Terrain of NE.

From all the battles we have seen though out history quantity manufacturing supremacy and logistics are the key features in any sort of prolonged war. One of the prime reasons why Germany lost both the world wars was because of its over reliance on the doctrine of fast based attacks or what we call today as blitzkrieg. Once dragged into an attrition based conflict they eventually ended up on the losing side.

I would request you to tag your post on pearl harbor as i was unable to find it.
India and China can only, geographically, fight a limited scale war like 1962 wasz
 

Knowitall

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India and China can only, geographically, fight a limited scale war like 1962 wasz
It depends the Chinese in 1962 were a weak state that was not exactly mobilized towards large scale wars.

Infact the Korean war single-handedly destroyed the Chinese dream of capturing Taiwan because the army created to capture Taiwan was forced to move into north korea due to the fear of US sharing a border with china through south korea.

Even in 1962 after the initial encirclements the Chinese did have a lot of paths to move further in and capture additional areas but simply stopped due to logistical issues as @mokoman pointed out if I'm not mistaken.
 

Kumaoni

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It depends the Chinese in 1962 were a weak state that was not exactly mobilized towards large scale wars.

Infact the Korean war single-handedly destroyed the Chinese dream of capturing Taiwan because the army created to capture Taiwan was forced to move into north korea due to the fear of US sharing a border with china through south korea.

Even in 1962 after the initial encirclements the Chinese did have a lot of paths to move further in and capture additional areas but simply stopped due to logistical issues as @mokoman pointed out if I'm not mistaken.
They also suffered heavy losses
 

Knowitall

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They also suffered heavy losses
True they simply lacked any proper logistics chain and equipment provisions which resulted in high attrition.

Korean war was even worse as the Chinese lacked both the air and armour element when facing the Americans. Their soldiers would often starve for days due to the lack of food.
 

Kumaoni

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True they simply lacked any proper logistics chain and equipment provisions which resulted in high attrition.

Korean war was even worse as the Chinese lacked both the air and armour element when facing the Americans. Their soldiers would often starve for days due to the lack of food.
Yeah man. This happened with our boys in NEFA. Totally isolated, few rounds, and barely any winter clothing. Yet in the Battle of Walong, Chinese suffered very heavily and couldn’t move forward. They just ran away from captured localities
 

Knowitall

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Yeah man. This happened with our boys in NEFA. Totally isolated, few rounds, and barely any winter clothing. Yet in the Battle of Walong, Chinese suffered very heavily and couldn’t move forward. They just ran away from captured localities
They had to as they their supply lines were over stretched and winter was coming in which meant that the next battle would not be favourable to them.
 

Kumaoni

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That's what I said the next battle would take place with them at a disadvantage which resulted in them retreating back to around 20km.
They would have faced the exact same circumstances our boys faced fighting them for an entire month.

they knew this, and after taking heavy losses, they decided to flee instead of fight like men.

This front really can’t be described as a strategic defeat on our part as they couldn’t capture Arunachal and still claim it to this day, but they won victories (some phyrric, some overwhelming) but didn’t achieve their aim
 

Knowitall

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They would have faced the exact same circumstances our boys faced fighting them for an entire month.

they knew this, and after taking heavy losses, they decided to flee instead of fight like men.

This front really can’t be described as a strategic defeat on our part as they couldn’t capture Arunachal and still claim it to this day, but they won victories (some phyrric, some overwhelming) but didn’t achieve their aim
Aim was to capture Tawang instead gandus retreated 20km back and ended up promoting mc Mohan line as the official line.
 

mist_consecutive

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Why do you assume that the war will conclude in a month.

If anything looking at the Russian Ukrainian conflict or the Vietnam Fiasco it becomes apparent that the global powers tend to Duke things out to the bitter end no matter how bas the situation is.

Looking at Russia and how the long the war has continued and the resilience of their economy i very much doubt the Chinese would face anything worse when their economy is much more industrialized and import export oriented. Europe and US have pretty much failed at crippling Russia which is more of a renfri state so i absolutely don't see why they would fare any better against a proper manufacturing powerhouse.

I don't expect the Chinese to just grab a win against us if we ever clash far from it infact but in general terms i do expect them to better respond to attrition and machinary losses. On the other hand India too has a lot of advantages in the form of infrastructure natural borders and the general Terrain of NE.

From all the battles we have seen though out history quantity manufacturing supremacy and logistics are the key features in any sort of prolonged war. One of the prime reasons why Germany lost both the world wars was because of its over reliance on the doctrine of fast based attacks or what we call today as blitzkrieg. Once dragged into an attrition based conflict they eventually ended up on the losing side.

I would request you to tag your post on pearl harbor as i was unable to find it.
Few points, a prolonged war favors -
  1. The country which has more resources.
  2. The country which can dedicate more manpower.
  3. The country which has support from other powerful friendly nations.
  4. The country on whose land the war is being fought (attrition advantage).
  5. The country whose soldiers are more motivated.
Now, apart from the first point, the other 4 will be in our favor. In fact, as the war prolongs, maybe 6 months (I dunno), the first point will start getting invalid as 3rd point starts getting strengthened.

A quick, blitzkrieg favors China. A long, drawn-out, ugly guerrilla war with millions of casualties do not.

In fact, if a war indeed starts out, I expect the first week to be absolute mayhem for us. We will be constantly hearing bad news as our army starts re-organizising. By the second week, reinforcements will arrive, and the counter-attack will start. The window for gains for China will be only the first week, thereafter they will have to defend hard to keep their gains.
 

hit&run

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Anything longer will kick start nuclear posturing.

In my understanding it will start in the very first week itself.

Leave alone nukes both will empty their conventional arsenal both strategic and sub strategic to non-replacement levels for many months and start disengaging. Same will be the fate of both the naval arms.

Why USA jumped into the war was not because they were angry for Pearl Harbour attack (may be they were but that had nothing to do with cold and calculated decision making) but now they knew what max Japanese can do. Those calculations removed all their fears of getting crippled or bogged down by anything that Japan can throw at them.

A wars in the back drop of nuclear exchange are self limiting. Therfore coming back to original point before nitpicking takes over Indian arm forces will fight it with bloody contempt. Head will be chopped and bodies will never be sent back. Chinese will be taught a lesson of their lives.
 

Kumaoni

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Head will be chopped and bodies will never be sent back
. They haven’t experienced such trauma. How do you think their conscript army will react if a colonel of theirs is shown as a literal football? It will demoralize them for good
 

hit&run

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. They haven’t experienced such trauma. How do you think their conscript army will react if a colonel of theirs is shown as a literal football? It will demoralize them for good
The point I am making is China has lost the old tested matrix of confusion, surprise and mortality which it used to cast upon on our military/political leaders and masses. There are no propaganda victories and the military lose will be rubbed very hard on their faces. Not to mention it will diffuse down on frontiers they are trying to open against other nations.

Having said that, there may be more factors which India is weighing against militarily enforcing old status quo. Chinese paid propagandist in India used a phrase ‘Fait-accompli’ a lot at the very start but for China and its propaganda hounds in India. They should remember that nothing in permanent in mountains. Mountains start killing soon you step in, no amount of Chinese build up and infrastructure will be enough to stop Indian counter attacks.
 
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Someone was saying China was economic power for 200 years and more. Another one from the same lot was saying GDP wins wars. If China was economy to complete with then how come tiny Island Japan screwed them comprehensively?

This means GDP not equal to military victory.
How come Vietnam defeated them?? smaller economy.
 
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Few points, a prolonged war favors -
  1. The country which has more resources.
  2. The country which can dedicate more manpower.
  3. The country which has support from other powerful friendly nations.
  4. The country on whose land the war is being fought (attrition advantage).
  5. The country whose soldiers are more motivated..
Can I add one more .

1)Prolonged wars favor the country taking a defensive position. It take three times the effort
and resources for the aggressors.

Chinese historically have not been good warriors. I wonder if the one child policy will make them
something they have never been when little emperors get sent back to China in body bags??
 

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