India-China 2021 Border conflict

Rxbanda

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Ya'll Nibbiars The SM and this new age media is not something that the Establishment is of familiar.

We were effective in using the private news media in kargil but not now. And remember most of the western SM sites are Mleechas friendly. And also remember this is not 1965 or 1971 the old method will not work now. New medium requires new strategies. And expect 1999. We never were in this kind of situations.

And I never said The Information Warfare is a new concept. But

1 . We don't have a permanent Information Warfare division.

2 . And can't develop new tactics in new domains until we have such apparatus.

3 . Can't carry out effective organised strategies within that.

4 . Need resources and training into that.

5 . Alreday working on that but will take time.

6 . Nothing happens overnight.

Ya'll Nibbiars During the WW II we had such division in the Indian Government. But this concept of vasundhra Kutumbh destroyed that. In 1971 we had a similar apparatus but again then the Morajai Desai happened. And again during the IK Gujral destroyed many such departments with the Pakistan desk during the Open Door Policy. And we all remember the MMS era no scop for such departments.

Ya'll Nibbiars in the other words the Information warfare is still new to us why?.

And despite possessing such departments in the past the all knowledge with them is lost with the successive governments systematically destroying them.
There are those who think forces don't have an Information Warfare setup. We have had IW since years. The problem is that neither is it taken seriously nor allowed to be used effectively. Case in example - how we flounder in dealing with the Lizard acting like a Dragon.
 

Dharmocrat

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In game theory being unpredictable is the best option some times. If you understand incentives vs repercussions and extrapolate for a positive outcome. Being unemotional and impartial to different strategies is a key aspect of psychological warfare,
Where does being unpredictable result in
" The best way to get correct answers is to say incorrect things."?

Unpredictability should be in action, which GoI has been doing.

My problem is with his suggestion that we should say Chinese kicked IA's ass, somehow to force Modi to respond because his political capital is at stake,
 

pankaj nema

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Haldilal

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There are those who think forces don't have an Information Warfare setup. We have had IW since years. The problem is that neither is it taken seriously nor allowed to be used effectively. Case in example - how we flounder in dealing with the Lizard acting like a Dragon.
Ya'll Nibbiars We Have / Had. We had a some what effective machinery In the past but as we all knew it was sabotaged in the past and now what we have is and what can be utilize almost nothing. It will take time to set up it again.
 
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ezsasa

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There are those who think forces don't have an Information Warfare setup. We have had IW since years. The problem is that neither is it taken seriously nor allowed to be used effectively. Case in example - how we flounder in dealing with the Lizard acting like a Dragon.
IW these days is “all of the system”, not just one branch of the state or government alone.


US China Russia have “all of the system” which includes the govt + military branches + companies + social media + movie industry + NGO ++
 
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mist_consecutive

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Since nothing significant is going on (at least in news), let's theorize something about the recent incidents and future.

Observations till now
  • It is now 100% clear Chinese releasing Galwan images is intentional.
  • GoI is aware of the images (since it has been handed over to prominent journalists like Sir Nitin Gokhale and Shiv Aroor) but chooses not to respond to the provocation.
  • Talks have fallen apart flat and there is no more incentive of appeasing China anymore.
  • China has refused to de-escalate, thus stationing 3+ divisions worth of troops in Tibet throughout the winter, which is a hefty game given the resources it demands and the toll it takes on the troops.

What could be China's motive to release images, and why now?
  • Humiliate India - We can counter-humiliate them with reciprocal images.
  • China thinks we won't release their images - Risky gamble, given the talks were intentionally failed. If we can mount Op. Snow Leopard, we definitely can release some images.
  • China thinks they can contain India's information warfare - Only limited to a domestic audience, lot of Chinese still successfully use VPNs, even after Galwan clash, without having pictorial proofs, fingers were still raised, video proof of undisclosed casualties will boil over the matter.
  • We don't have enough evidence/images - Can be safely ruled out because we record each and every event. Even if we consider all our cameras somehow stopped working during that day, we can still release images of Tawang/captured Chinese troops later.
  • China is baiting us to release their images (Most Probable) - This seems most probable reasoning for me, which is getting confirmed since we are not even releasing a statement related to this.

So, assuming that is the case, what is China exactly trying to achieve by getting their side of the image released?

Some of our members have duly posted, China is milking the Galwan incident to stoke nationalistic feelings. Few proofs as posted by @mokoman


Perhaps this makes sense, as parading, humiliated and bloody PLA soldiers will serve as an excellent material for making India the "enemy of the state" for China.

Yeah, so what's the advantage of stoking nationalistic feelings?
  • It is an excellent distraction for citizens to focus on something else. Multiple countries including Pakistan have used this strategy to hide their domestic turbulence. This makes sense as the current economic crisis and power outage of China will be swept under the carpet by making citizens focus on the Indo-Tibetian border issue.
  • China wants the mood of the nation to be hostile against India so that an upcoming border campaign/invasion can be justified to the citizens, as well as motivating youth to join the army. Basically, China wants to wage a war against India in near future.

What can be expected in near future?

If the current theory above is correct, and China is indeed trying to invoke nationalistic sentiments, it can be expected that small Galwan-level skirmish is due in the near future which will have casualties (to both sides), so that China can use them to show India as an evil entity.
 

ezsasa

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Since nothing significant is going on (at least in news), let's theorize something about the recent incidents and future.

Observations till now
  • It is now 100% clear Chinese releasing Galwan images is intentional.
  • GoI is aware of the images (since it has been handed over to prominent journalists like Sir Nitin Gokhale and Shiv Aroor) but chooses not to respond to the provocation.
  • Talks have fallen apart flat and there is no more incentive of appeasing China anymore.
  • China has refused to de-escalate, thus stationing 3+ divisions worth of troops in Tibet throughout the winter, which is a hefty game given the resources it demands and the toll it takes on the troops.

What could be China's motive to release images, and why now?
  • Humiliate India - We can counter-humiliate them with reciprocal images.
  • China thinks we won't release their images - Risky gamble, given the talks were intentionally failed. If we can mount Op. Snow Leopard, we definitely can release some images.
  • China thinks they can contain India's information warfare - Only limited to a domestic audience, lot of Chinese still successfully use VPNs, even after Galwan clash, without having pictorial proofs, fingers were still raised, video proof of undisclosed casualties will boil over the matter.
  • We don't have enough evidence/images - Can be safely ruled out because we record each and every event. Even if we consider all our cameras somehow stopped working during that day, we can still release images of Tawang/captured Chinese troops later.
  • China is baiting us to release their images (Most Probable) - This seems most probable reasoning for me, which is getting confirmed since we are not even releasing a statement related to this.

So, assuming that is the case, what is China exactly trying to achieve by getting their side of the image released?

Some of our members have duly posted, China is milking the Galwan incident to stoke nationalistic feelings. Few proofs as posted by @mokoman


Perhaps this makes sense, as parading, humiliated and bloody PLA soldiers will serve as an excellent material for making India the "enemy of the state" for China.

Yeah, so what's the advantage of stoking nationalistic feelings?
  • It is an excellent distraction for citizens to focus on something else. Multiple countries including Pakistan have used this strategy to hide their domestic turbulence. This makes sense as the current economic crisis and power outage of China will be swept under the carpet by making citizens focus on the Indo-Tibetian border issue.
  • China wants the mood of the nation to be hostile against India so that an upcoming border campaign/invasion can be justified to the citizens, as well as motivating youth to join the army. Basically, China wants to wage a war against India in near future.

What can be expected in near future?

If the current theory above is correct, and China is indeed trying to invoke nationalistic sentiments, it can be expected that small Galwan-level skirmish is due in the near future which will have casualties (to both sides), so that China can use them to show India as an evil entity.
isn’t CCP invoking nationalist sentiments with in its population against every major country except Russia? How does this factor in?
 

Optimistic Nihilist

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I think why China is doing this is fairly simple.

1634377664070.png


The median age of China has just recently surpassed the US and it's rising fast. While their economy continues to grow, the CCP knows that their growth will slow down eventually - especially considering that salaries are rising fast and China is losing its status as workbench of the world.

Meanwhile growth in many Asian countries, but most importantly India, is accelerating at an incredible pace.The median age in India is 10 years below that of China. We are just cashing in on our youth dividend.

It's not wholly accurate but put these factors together and you get a situation eerily similar to the Concert of Europe just before WW1. China (the then Germany) is well on its way to eclipse the current hegemon USA (the then Great Britain), but at the same time fears to be overtaken by India (the then Russia), another rising power with much potential.

This instills a fear of urgency in the CCP to act when their relative power peaks. This window of opportunity will be around 2030 to 2040, possibly even before then, and it's going to be extremely dangerous. No doubt their thinking is to occupy certain Indian territories that are rich in much-needed resources and more importantly will provide manpower and human labor in the form of civilians that they capture.

This, they believe, will reinject energy into China and prevent them from collapsing. Like I said, alarming and will result in a bloodbath. Because it's not a question of "winning" in their minds, they believe it's a question of their survival.
 

Physx32

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isn’t CCP invoking nationalist sentiments with in its population against every major country except Russia? How does this factor in?
It seems CCP is conditioning it's citizens for a bigger war in future. They'll probably wage a short, bloody but indecisive war with India to invoke nationalist sentiments and create a positive perception for war. This will consolidate Xi's power and provide PLA valuable lessons for their final objective which is the invasion of Taiwan. It's expected that US will cut-off the oil supply during this, so is this where Russia comes in?
 

Haldilal

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Since nothing significant is going on (at least in news), let's theorize something about the recent incidents and future.

Observations till now
  • It is now 100% clear Chinese releasing Galwan images is intentional.
  • GoI is aware of the images (since it has been handed over to prominent journalists like Sir Nitin Gokhale and Shiv Aroor) but chooses not to respond to the provocation.
  • Talks have fallen apart flat and there is no more incentive of appeasing China anymore.
  • China has refused to de-escalate, thus stationing 3+ divisions worth of troops in Tibet throughout the winter, which is a hefty game given the resources it demands and the toll it takes on the troops.

What could be China's motive to release images, and why now?
  • Humiliate India - We can counter-humiliate them with reciprocal images.
  • China thinks we won't release their images - Risky gamble, given the talks were intentionally failed. If we can mount Op. Snow Leopard, we definitely can release some images.
  • China thinks they can contain India's information warfare - Only limited to a domestic audience, lot of Chinese still successfully use VPNs, even after Galwan clash, without having pictorial proofs, fingers were still raised, video proof of undisclosed casualties will boil over the matter.
  • We don't have enough evidence/images - Can be safely ruled out because we record each and every event. Even if we consider all our cameras somehow stopped working during that day, we can still release images of Tawang/captured Chinese troops later.
  • China is baiting us to release their images (Most Probable) - This seems most probable reasoning for me, which is getting confirmed since we are not even releasing a statement related to this.

So, assuming that is the case, what is China exactly trying to achieve by getting their side of the image released?

Some of our members have duly posted, China is milking the Galwan incident to stoke nationalistic feelings. Few proofs as posted by @mokoman


Perhaps this makes sense, as parading, humiliated and bloody PLA soldiers will serve as an excellent material for making India the "enemy of the state" for China.

Yeah, so what's the advantage of stoking nationalistic feelings?
  • It is an excellent distraction for citizens to focus on something else. Multiple countries including Pakistan have used this strategy to hide their domestic turbulence. This makes sense as the current economic crisis and power outage of China will be swept under the carpet by making citizens focus on the Indo-Tibetian border issue.
  • China wants the mood of the nation to be hostile against India so that an upcoming border campaign/invasion can be justified to the citizens, as well as motivating youth to join the army. Basically, China wants to wage a war against India in near future.

What can be expected in near future?

If the current theory above is correct, and China is indeed trying to invoke nationalistic sentiments, it can be expected that small Galwan-level skirmish is due in the near future which will have casualties (to both sides), so that China can use them to show India as an evil entity.
Ya'll Nibbiars The question is not will the Mleecahs start a full scale conflict but when?.

Are you sure it'll be a full-scale conflict? CCP's objective is to contain India before Taiwan invasion, not destroy 80% of its forces in Ladakh/AP.
Ya'll Nibbiars Regional Full Scale war in ladakh. And the question is when.
 

Optimistic Nihilist

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It seems CCP is conditioning it's citizens for a bigger war in future. They'll probably wage a short, bloody but indecisive war with India to invoke nationalist sentiments and create a positive perception for war. This will consolidate Xi's power and provide PLA valuable lessons for their final objective which is the invasion of Taiwan. It's expected that US will cut-off the oil supply during this, so is this where Russia comes in?
Not just oil or energy, but food as well.

In case of a war, the USA would undoubtedly orchestrate a naval blockade that stops imports of food and energy to China. China relies on naval imports for food and energy.

China imports at most 20% of its food from Russia, a country that has a smaller economy than South Korea. Can Russia step up and import more when the US decides the Chinese will starve? Can Russia export more food without starving its own citizens?

How will China produce energy? They can't even produce jet engines. They imported most of their coal from Australia and, as they stopped out of spite, the price of coal spiked.

Their only option is Mongolia, who are just barely and reluctantly within the Chinese sphere of influence. There is a chance Russia plays both sides selling oil to China, but I see this as an extremely unlikely scenario because there is no scenario in which China replacing the USA as #1 is in Russia's national interests.
 

saneel2014

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Since nothing significant is going on (at least in news), let's theorize something about the recent incidents and future.

Observations till now
  • It is now 100% clear Chinese releasing Galwan images is intentional.
  • GoI is aware of the images (since it has been handed over to prominent journalists like Sir Nitin Gokhale and Shiv Aroor) but chooses not to respond to the provocation.
  • Talks have fallen apart flat and there is no more incentive of appeasing China anymore.
  • China has refused to de-escalate, thus stationing 3+ divisions worth of troops in Tibet throughout the winter, which is a hefty game given the resources it demands and the toll it takes on the troops.

What could be China's motive to release images, and why now?
  • Humiliate India - We can counter-humiliate them with reciprocal images.
  • China thinks we won't release their images - Risky gamble, given the talks were intentionally failed. If we can mount Op. Snow Leopard, we definitely can release some images.
  • China thinks they can contain India's information warfare - Only limited to a domestic audience, lot of Chinese still successfully use VPNs, even after Galwan clash, without having pictorial proofs, fingers were still raised, video proof of undisclosed casualties will boil over the matter.
  • We don't have enough evidence/images - Can be safely ruled out because we record each and every event. Even if we consider all our cameras somehow stopped working during that day, we can still release images of Tawang/captured Chinese troops later.
  • China is baiting us to release their images (Most Probable) - This seems most probable reasoning for me, which is getting confirmed since we are not even releasing a statement related to this.

So, assuming that is the case, what is China exactly trying to achieve by getting their side of the image released?

Some of our members have duly posted, China is milking the Galwan incident to stoke nationalistic feelings. Few proofs as posted by @mokoman


Perhaps this makes sense, as parading, humiliated and bloody PLA soldiers will serve as an excellent material for making India the "enemy of the state" for China.

Yeah, so what's the advantage of stoking nationalistic feelings?
  • It is an excellent distraction for citizens to focus on something else. Multiple countries including Pakistan have used this strategy to hide their domestic turbulence. This makes sense as the current economic crisis and power outage of China will be swept under the carpet by making citizens focus on the Indo-Tibetian border issue.
  • China wants the mood of the nation to be hostile against India so that an upcoming border campaign/invasion can be justified to the citizens, as well as motivating youth to join the army. Basically, China wants to wage a war against India in near future.

What can be expected in near future?

If the current theory above is correct, and China is indeed trying to invoke nationalistic sentiments, it can be expected that small Galwan-level skirmish is due in the near future which will have casualties (to both sides), so that China can use them to show India as an evil entity.
The reason our side cant release the pics or any videos according to me, is because there is a high chance they will drag it to geneva war rights. Chinese made our officers and soldiers sign war crime documents stating we were the people who crossed the border..it was covered in news back then too..i guess we didnt do the same with chinese soldiers.
 

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