India-China 2021 Border conflict

ezsasa

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Ofcourse they will do but they will still have to move majority of assets manpower to eastern front.

You do realise even if india totally stays out of game china would still be facing humiliating defeat against usa - japan combined forces.
let US demonstrate clear intent beyond diplomatic jargon, we can always change our opinions/assessments later.
 

IndianHawk

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Man, how much of hopium you had this morning? When has IA done some stuff like that, "force majority population" and " threat of violence"? You keep forgetting they call themselves a 'moral army' and these things are not moral in nature. Leave pok we can't even pull stunt like that within our own borders- Kashmir? Or West Bengal and Assam? India will do absolutely nothing because that's who we are- masters of letting go off opportunities
Character of IA has been changing with change in power in Delhi. Remember the episode of tying rebels to jeep against stone throwers. Look at the number of encounters.

Besides pok population is not our vote bank neither do we have any moral obligation to them. We can simply label them paki planted population they can either surrender peacefully or get the hell out of there.

By the amount of propaganda in porkystan about how evil Hindu army is ( raping Kashmiri muzzie women according to porkys) they will probably be running to pindi even befor hindus actually arrive.
 

IndianHawk

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let US demonstrate clear intent beyond diplomatic jargon, we can always change our opinions/assessments later.
By that logic we shouldn't even be discussing Taiwan since Taiwan themselves have not declared there intentions clearly. They seem too happy to play all sides.

Anyway my point is any crissis in Taiwan straight is an opportunity for us which we should be preparing to cash in.
 

ezsasa

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By that logic we shouldn't even be discussing Taiwan since Taiwan themselves have not declared there intentions clearly. They seem too happy to play all sides.

Anyway my point is any crissis in Taiwan straight is an opportunity for us which we should be preparing to cash in.
sure, there is mixed messaging from Taiwan.

 

Physx32

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Chinese or Communist philosophy is to leave the enemy with a psychological scar which would weaken them for years to come.
"make an example" out of us
I think this has already started with the info/propaganda war on SM. You'll see that their top CGTN journalists are frequently trolling India. GoI is absolutely clueless or scared and is already losing the propaganda war. We'll see more of these in the coming months.
 

Optimistic Nihilist

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I think there's a few things people need to understand about Taiwan before considering what a China-Taiwan war will result in:

1. Taiwanese people don't really want to go war against mainland China. Cross-straits economies, trades, everything barring politics and defenses are virtually inseparable. Nothing meaningful for Taiwanese to go total war against mainland and get flattened to the ground, they aren't suicidal over the inevitable loss by immense force of mainland forces at their very doorstep.

2. Military hardware are all outdated. Even with the premise of military purchase from western allies (generously) won't do meaningful shit. Mainland chinks don't get intimidated by such moves since they also see those newly bought western made weaponries by Taiwan as "potential spoils of war" to be captured (if they remain intact).

One of reasons why US is reluctant to offer sales of advanced weaponries to Taiwan: Fear of being seized. Not to mention the sheer number of mainland Sympathizers settling in Taiwan or those Taiwanese that are actually turncoats for mainland intelligence (think about those tech spies in US).

3. Conscription is fucking low. Even anti-CCP, anti-commie, anti-mainland Taiwanese will prefer to enlist in US military rather than ROC military (if they could).

4. ROCAF high rank officers are mostly KMT hardcores and they are on the fuss with Taiwan's current government that's dominated by DPP. Ideals of how nationalism of Taiwan should be shaped are also disputed between both sides.

As for disputes with SEA in SCS, nothing meaningful. Chinks now have more artificial islands, disoriented US, and SEA nations having disputes with each other.

Again, Taiwanese civilians are not Vietnamese farmers from the 1960s or Islamic goat herders willing to throw their lives away. Nobody in Taiwan is going to be fighting a guerilla war against China.

These are modern, comfortable people who want to live their lives and avoid conflict at all costs. The absolute worst you will get is some rioting like in Hong Kong.
 

Angel of War

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People talked a big deal about Hong Kong too, till it just got swept under the rug.

I bet 2 large size Pizza China will have Taiwan by the end of 2022.
I bet you won't get those two large size pizzas sir 🙂
Hong Kong is a entirely different case . It was leased out to the british empire for a span of 99 years by the Qing dynasty . As the lease expired china moved in with british consent . What happened in Hong Kong was internationally accepted but if china does a move against taiwan then it would be suicide for chinese economy and military .
 

Jimih

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Their lackluster response to Chinese warplanes constantly breaching their airspace shows this. If they were serious, they would have shot it down at the very first instance, consequences notwithstanding.
ADIZ ≠ Taiwan's Sovereign Airspace

Here is the Map,


IMG_20211011_141428.jpg



Red portion is Sovereign Airspace and White portion is ADIZ.

That's why we can see that Taiwan don't dispatch it's fighter jets on China's incursion into ADIZ. That is always the case.



Agreed on your Other points though.
 

Waanar

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I bet you won't get those two large size pizzas sir 🙂
Hong Kong is a entirely different case . It was leased out to the british empire for a span of 99 years by the Qing dynasty . As the lease expired china moved in with british consent . What happened in Hong Kong was internationally accepted but if china does a move against taiwan then it would be suicide for chinese economy and military .
Again, I repeat, China will have Taiwan.
The world's response afterwards is nigh impossible to judge this early but I won't be surprised if it's hemming and hawing instead of something concrete.

When the response to an outright invasion by Russia of Crimea is just a flood of trade sanctions (when Russian military is arguably weaker than the Chinese, not in quality but in quantity), I think we're expecting too much from the US in defending Taiwan.

US behaves like a bully. It's eager to go to war with weaker, disorganized nations on the cusp of implosion (Iraq, Afghanistan, Grenada, Cuba, Libya, Vietnam) but incredibly cautious when the prospect of going to war with a near peer force comes up (USSR, Russia, China, India and even NoKo).

You guys are not wrong in your assessment that the invasion of Taiwan will negatively affect CCP's longevity, but it WILL happen and and it's too early to say what the world's response will be.
 

Angel of War

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Again, I repeat, China will have Taiwan.
The world's response afterwards is nigh impossible to judge this early but I won't be surprised if it's hemming and hawing instead of something concrete.

When the response to an outright invasion by Russia of Crimea is just a flood of trade sanctions (when Russian military is arguably weaker than the Chinese, not in quality but in quantity), I think we're expecting too much from the US in defending Taiwan .
crimea never was a hot invasion war nor is it recognised as one , rather it was a annexation campaign accomplished through coordinated Gray Zone ops below the threshold of conventional war fighting . Russians infiltrated armed volunteers and soldiers , blocked the supply routes from ukraine , gained local support and surrounded the Ukranian army bases . They had done their job without firing a shot . In order to restore status Quo ukraine would have needed to fire shots which would have openly meant declaration of war . Ukraine was too fearful to climb the escalation ladder and hence preferred to stay Quiet . This is not the case with Taiwan tho , a big reason for russian success was proximity of crimea to the russian mainland . Taiwan is seperated from Mainland china By 130 km of sea .
 

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