India-China 2021 Border conflict

Hari Sud

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That's all well and good, but I'll be the first to say this- it's all gonna go to waste if we're talking in absolutes.

China WILL take Taiwan, make no mistake.

It's only a matter of time.
All this is just foreplay, lap dances and stripteases.

Americans won't risk a war with China anymore.
They're incredibly risk averse.


Hopefully we cut some deal which favors us with the Chinese to back off from this effort.

Something more concrete than a bunch of commanders talking over tea.
China has no capability to take Taiwan. They will intimidate and posture. Chinese have larger numbers but of poor quality. When push comes to shove, Chinese will walk away. Because all democracies will come to Taiwan’s rescue. That will be a great loss of prestige for China and economic cost will be such that China may itself fall apart.

To make long story short, they will posture a lot but will never act.
 

Maharaj skandgupta

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China has no capability to take Taiwan. They will intimidate and posture. Chinese have larger numbers but of poor quality. When push comes to shove, Chinese will walk away. Because all democracies will come to Taiwan’s rescue. That will be a great loss of prestige for China and economic cost will be such that China may itself fall apart.

To make long story short, they will posture a lot but will never act.
This is a very optimistic scenario sir
 

Waanar

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China has no capability to take Taiwan. They will intimidate and posture. Chinese have larger numbers but of poor quality. When push comes to shove, Chinese will walk away. Because all democracies will come to Taiwan’s rescue. That will be a great loss of prestige for China and economic cost will be such that China may itself fall apart.

To make long story short, they will posture a lot but will never act.
Because Taiwan has such a quality group of soldiers?

Look, I agree the Chinese aren't battle hardened but we're placing too much emphasis on the man on the ground.
A drone in the sky trumps a man on the ground 100 out of 100 times.

The analogy I'm making is, China can saturate the island of Taiwan with carpet bombing if it so wishes and the Taiwanese would rather give up than go through all that pain.

If China can effectively fight India, it can EASILY take Taiwan. The thought of Taiwan repelling China for any amount of time is as laughable as saying Maldives can repel India because XYZ reason.

Without the full commitment of America, Taiwan isn't going to make it through this decade as a republic. Their lackluster response to Chinese warplanes constantly breaching their airspace shows this. If they were serious, they would have shot it down at the very first instance, consequences notwithstanding.

They aren't serious. They're just waiting to be invaded.
I don't blame them either. China's too big for them to handle by their lonesome.
 

Tshering22

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No if, only when. I'm telling you man, I don't want to sound like a lunatic but America is gearing up for Iran. It will NEVER fight China conventionally and after a war with Iran, it won't be in a state to.

Again, I repeat- America will war with Iran rather than China and probably pretty soon.
Mark my words.


This is exactly how China does things.
It's a bargaining chip for us. China values Taiwan way more than Tibet because Taiwan's very existence is a threat to CCP's hold over the mainland (as CCP views it).

They WILL cut a favorable deal with us if they feel our efforts are going to amount to something.

If there's even a 0.0000001% chance that our efforts will amount to something significant (Taiwan surviving the invasion, prolonging it enough to overstretch China's resources or target key economic hubs), Xi will be willing to suck his own boner with a herniated disc if that will stop it.
They will also renege on that deal once we assume that they are happy.

Remember, the CCP will never honor their words. Do you really think that CCP will give us back Aksai Chin & recognize Arunachal as Indian?

After all the water that flowed under the bridge now?

NEVER.

I remember seeing a paper by a US colonel some time back who said that China's territorial ambitions are to reach the Caspian Sea eventually (including entire Kashmir + the Himalayan belt). They are absolutists. They don't understand compromise and co-existence.

The only way to deal with the CCP is to prepare to be a thorn on their sides for as many years as possible until they replace US and we replace them. Find ways to dismantle them from within; it is not as impossible as it sounds.
 

Waanar

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They will also renege on that deal once we assume that they are happy.

Remember, the CCP will never honor their words. Do you really think that CCP will give us back Aksai Chin & recognize Arunachal as Indian?

After all the water that flowed under the bridge now?

NEVER.

I remember seeing a paper by a US colonel some time back who said that China's territorial ambitions are to reach the Caspian Sea eventually (including entire Kashmir + the Himalayan belt). They are absolutists. They don't understand compromise and co-existence.

The only way to deal with the CCP is to prepare to be a thorn on their sides for as many years as possible until they replace US and we replace them. Find ways to dismantle them from within; it is not as impossible as it sounds.
CCP will run itself into the ground.
Unlike what my tone may make me sound, I absolutely believe CCP will be laying in a putrid pile of it's own shit in a few years.
I am merely talking of the current status of Taiwan and not China as a whole.

A friend who happens to be a colonel in IA (now retired) was laughing about a verbal throwdown with the Chinese near NE (I don't remember particularly where or when), talking of how the Chinese officers would be incredibly recessive and shy when arguing with them but when they'd notice there were phones recording them or cameras around, they'd start screaming and shouting, as if they weren't just shitting their pants moments ago.
My takeaway is, Chinese government is plagued by yes men, who'll claim to be a hotshot but crumble under pressure unsupervised.

This stands true for every institution of China, probably more so than the PLAA.
When you don't acknowledge a problem due to fear of reprimand, its not going to get fixed and will only surface when it gets out of hand. The authoritarian fallacy always plays itself out in such nations.

Again, I fully expect the CCP to run China into the ground like the USSR.
 

Tshering22

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China can defeat Taiwan

But it will never occupy it.
Taiwan is like US a very free society. Once China puts soldiers on ground, they will get massacred.
These idiots could not defeat Vietnam, you think they can occupy Taiwan?!

They will get air superiority & Sea as well.

But that is not same as occupying Taiwan.
PLA is adopting non-contract conflict strategies. Using long range artillery and missile to flatten and weaken key command centres, both in the frontlines and at the top. Before sending in foot soldiers to land at Taiwanese beaches, that is.

All Chinese missiles from Southeast China can strike all of Taiwan. Assuming that the Taiwanese have built a bunker system like the Swiss, there is a small chance that their government might survive the strike.

Look at this simple report:


Taiwan is an advanced economy and the people there have become like Japan. They see everything through commercial lenses and would rather run away to USA than to sit down and fight back once PLA takes control of their island.

Sure a few thousands will mount a stiff resistance, but for how long? Taiwan is not like Israel. Israel has its culture, faith & civilization at stake which is what keeps them always on the edge. Meanwhile Taiwanese today are banana Asians (yellow on the outside, white on the inside).

Vietnamese are in a different league altogether. They have a history of destroying superpowers whenever they were pushed on the edge. The Mongols, the Indonesians, the Chinese, the Americans, the French, the Japanese.... nothing has held onto them except us (that too culturally, not militarily). Vietnamese are even more hardened than we are. Their politicians have risen from ground-up and not through a colonial system, but a customized communist system suited to their mindset. The only thing they lack is strategic depth and weapons. If today the NATO decides to open the weapons tap without any restrictions for Vietnam, it would rip the CCP into pieces and leave them licking wounds.

Please don't compare the two.
 

prasadr14

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Because Taiwan has such a quality group of soldiers?

Look, I agree the Chinese aren't battle hardened but we're placing too much emphasis on the man on the ground.
A drone in the sky trumps a man on the ground 100 out of 100 times.

The analogy I'm making is, China can saturate the island of Taiwan with carpet bombing if it so wishes and the Taiwanese would rather give up than go through all that pain.

If China can effectively fight India, it can EASILY take Taiwan. The thought of Taiwan repelling China for any amount of time is as laughable as saying Maldives can repel India because XYZ reason.

Without the full commitment of America, Taiwan isn't going to make it through this decade as a republic. Their lackluster response to Chinese warplanes constantly breaching their airspace shows this. If they were serious, they would have shot it down at the very first instance, consequences notwithstanding.

They aren't serious. They're just waiting to be invaded.
I don't blame them either. China's too big for them to handle by their lonesome.
Eventually China has to place man on the ground to occupy Taiwan.

And let's be honest, there is no way governments of the world can continue to bluff to their population that China is good & it should be business as usual even when it's killing thousands of Taiwanese using air strikes.

USA and EU even if they don't put boots on ground, will be forced by political compulsion to sanction the hell out of China. There is not a democracy in the world that likes China more than Taiwan.

Taking Aus as an example, when China even drops a bomb on Taiwan, the govt here will be forced to immediately act against China in some way or form.
There is nothing Aus govt can use to continue business as usual when China attacks Taiwan.

China knows this too, hence the bully tactic of scaring but not hitting.
It will continue to posture and irritate Taiwan. The first bomb China drops on Taiwan is basically the end of China story.
Not because US will attack it but because China will become a country with which most nations will not be able to do business with.
 

Tshering22

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CCP will run itself into the ground.
Unlike what my tone may make me sound, I absolutely believe CCP will be laying in a putrid pile of it's own shit in a few years.
I am merely talking of the current status of Taiwan and not China as a whole.

A friend who happens to be a colonel in IA (now retired) was laughing about a verbal throwdown with the Chinese near NE (I don't remember particularly where or when), talking of how the Chinese officers would be incredibly recessive and shy when arguing with them but when they'd notice there were phones recording them or cameras around, they'd start screaming and shouting, as if they weren't just shitting their pants moments ago.
My takeaway is, Chinese government is plagued by yes men, who'll claim to be a hotshot but crumble under pressure unsupervised.

This stands true for every institution of China, probably more so than the PLAA.
When you don't acknowledge a problem due to fear of reprimand, its not going to get fixed and will only surface when it gets out of hand. The authoritarian fallacy always plays itself out in such nations.

Again, I fully expect the CCP to run China into the ground like the USSR.
That's because most troops deployed on the Indian border are conscripts or short-term low-trained border guards for now. The best of their soldiers are on the eastern front. But this fight will be more mechanized than man-to-man. PLA cannot sustain immense fight today. Back then, all Chinese were poor and had little to lose. Also, Mao was insane and didn't mind sacrificing the entire Chinese population for an ego trip. They were also basking in the victory of WW2, Korean war and the civil war, making them more combat ready.

Today, they will want to take more from us/others, but they will have to use their weapons more than their men, because they also realize that their men are not capable enough to fight us. Those videos with arranged columns of well-equipped soldiers look good for PR but in a real fight it will be a bloodbath. So they will use the same tactics they try with Taiwan, against us. Not from a amphibious attack, but more about using their rocket forces liberally to target our forward and even secondary positions deep inside.

Chinese or Communist philosophy is to leave the enemy with a psychological scar which would weaken them for years to come.
 

Waanar

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Eventually China has to place man on the ground to occupy Taiwan.

And let's be honest, there is no way governments of the world can continue to bluff to their population that China is good & it should be business as usual even when it's killing thousands of Taiwanese using air strikes.

USA and EU even if they don't put boots on ground, will be forced by political compulsion to sanction the hell out of China. There is not a democracy in the world that likes China more than Taiwan.

Taking Aus as an example, when China even drops a bomb on Taiwan, the govt here will be forced to immediately act against China in some way or form.
There is nothing Aus govt can use to continue business as usual when China attacks Taiwan.

China knows this too, hence the bully tactic of scaring but not hitting.
It will continue to posture and irritate Taiwan. The first bomb China drops on Taiwan is basically the end of China story.
Not because US will attack it but because China will become a country with which most nations will not be able to do business with.
People talked a big deal about Hong Kong too, till it just got swept under the rug.

I bet 2 large size Pizza China will have Taiwan by the end of 2022.
China may suffer economically for it and may even face significant military setback, but it will have it.
 

prasadr14

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People talked a big deal about Hong Kong too, till it just got swept under the rug.

I bet 2 large size Pizza China will have Taiwan by the end of 2022.
China may suffer economically for it and may even face significant military setback, but it will have it.
HK is part of China & they have not bombed people of HK.

I will bet a whole pizza on my theory.

Let me again say it, China does not have the military might to occupy Taiwan. Attack it and kill millions - sure. occupy no.
There has not been modern war in last few decades where another country basically steam rolled a country into submission.
And contrary to belief, Taiwan has a decent military and not all people can run to other countries when shit hits.

The moment China puts boots on ground is the moment CCP will be finished, whether China remains as it is today we will have to see.
but attacking Taiwan is basically the end of China story as is.
 

Tshering22

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People talked a big deal about Hong Kong too, till it just got swept under the rug.

I bet 2 large size Pizza China will have Taiwan by the end of 2022.
China may suffer economically for it and may even face significant military setback, but it will have it.
Well said. My concern is what comes after that. Because if even 1 victory falls in CCP's kitty, it will take them on the same path as the Empire of Japan - on an expansion spree. It will engage in full blown wars in Philippines, Indonesia and against us almost immediately.

US cannot sanction China. Chinese hold US economy by the balls with dollar bonds. It might ask the European lackeys to sanction them, but once the Europeans start seeing their consumer goods prices shoot up, they will buckle.

Russia will either be in popcorn mode or might take the chance to simply take eastern Ukraine until River Dniper using the China-Taiwan global distraction.

Japan will at best route all its investments out of China and into India and Vietnam.

Australia might do the same, maybe politically criticize them at best.

That technically leaves only one world power standing up to the CCP: us.
 

Waanar

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HK is part of China & they have not bombed people of HK.

I will bet a whole pizza on my theory.

Let me again say it, China does not have the military might to occupy Taiwan. Attack it and kill millions - sure. occupy no.
There has not been modern war in last few decades where another country basically steam rolled a country into submission.
And contrary to belief, Taiwan has a decent military and not all people can run to other countries when shit hits.

The moment China puts boots on ground is the moment CCP will be finished, whether China remains as it is today we will have to see.
but attacking Taiwan is basically the end of China story as is.
It will also occupy it, and suffer tremendously for it.
There's no point in murdering someone but not stealing their purse of you're a robber.

Well said. My concern is what comes after that. Because if even 1 victory falls in CCP's kitty, it will take them on the same path as the Empire of Japan - on an expansion spree. It will engage in full blown wars in Philippines, Indonesia and against us almost immediately.

US cannot sanction China. Chinese hold US economy by the balls with dollar bonds. It might ask the European lackeys to sanction them, but once the Europeans start seeing their consumer goods prices shoot up, they will buckle.

Russia will either be in popcorn mode or might take the chance to simply take eastern Ukraine until River Dniper using the China-Taiwan global distraction.

Japan will at best route all its investments out of China and into India and Vietnam.

Australia might do the same, maybe politically criticize them at best.

That technically leaves only one world power standing up to the CCP: us.
China won't be in a state to war with us after taking over Taiwan.
 

Tshering22

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It will also occupy it, and suffer tremendously for it.
There's no point in murdering someone but not stealing their purse of you're a robber.


China won't be in a state to war with us after taking over Taiwan.
Au Contrair, my friend. It will be further emboldened. Mao's 5 Finger punch was to take over the entire Himalayas. Why? Because that means we lose access to our water and become Chinese vassals. While we know we won't be their vassals, the conceited CCP lot don't. High from their victory, they will try.

My second theory is that they will attack us first, trying to "make an example" out of us so that Taiwan submits without having the need to fight. It will be a heavy gamble for them as they would risk a lot of political capital trying to fight us.
 

Hari Sud

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Because Taiwan has such a quality group of soldiers?

Look, I agree the Chinese aren't battle hardened but we're placing too much emphasis on the man on the ground.
A drone in the sky trumps a man on the ground 100 out of 100 times.

The analogy I'm making is, China can saturate the island of Taiwan with carpet bombing if it so wishes and the Taiwanese would rather give up than go through all that pain.

If China can effectively fight India, it can EASILY take Taiwan. The thought of Taiwan repelling China for any amount of time is as laughable as saying Maldives can repel India because XYZ reason.

Without the full commitment of America, Taiwan isn't going to make it through this decade as a republic. Their lackluster response to Chinese warplanes constantly breaching their airspace shows this. If they were serious, they would have shot it down at the very first instance, consequences notwithstanding.

They aren't serious. They're just waiting to be invaded.
I don't blame them either. China's too big for them to handle by their lonesome.
Taiwan has to hold off Chinese forces until the help arrives. That help is not far away. It will take 5 to 10 days for Chinese troops to overrun Taiwan. It will take two days for help from Guam to arrive and sink all ships which brought the Chinese troops to Taiwan. Surrounded and without supplies, Chinese troops will begin to surrender in large numbers. It is Falkland war all over again.
 

ezsasa

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CCP will run itself into the ground.
Unlike what my tone may make me sound, I absolutely believe CCP will be laying in a putrid pile of it's own shit in a few years.
I am merely talking of the current status of Taiwan and not China as a whole.

A friend who happens to be a colonel in IA (now retired) was laughing about a verbal throwdown with the Chinese near NE (I don't remember particularly where or when), talking of how the Chinese officers would be incredibly recessive and shy when arguing with them but when they'd notice there were phones recording them or cameras around, they'd start screaming and shouting, as if they weren't just shitting their pants moments ago.
My takeaway is, Chinese government is plagued by yes men, who'll claim to be a hotshot but crumble under pressure unsupervised.

This stands true for every institution of China, probably more so than the PLAA.
When you don't acknowledge a problem due to fear of reprimand, its not going to get fixed and will only surface when it gets out of hand. The authoritarian fallacy always plays itself out in such nations.

Again, I fully expect the CCP to run China into the ground like the USSR.
This matches with this observation.

remember the meeting a few months ago in Alaska(I think)between blinken and some CCP high official, in the news it was shown as CCP being aggressive towards blinken when cameras were present there.

apparently after the cameras have left the meeting went on for 3-4 hours and was very cordial and productive.

These folks are playing the gallery.


if they are doing their own thing, we can too do things as we deem fit.
..
 

Tshering22

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Taiwan has to hold off Chinese forces until the help arrives. That help is not far away. It will take 5 to 10 days for Chinese troops to overrun Taiwan. It will take two days for help from Guam to arrive and sink all ships which brought the Chinese troops to Taiwan. Surrounded and without supplies, Chinese troops will begin to surrender in large numbers. It is Falkland war all over again.
That is a BIG IF. This isn't the 70s and China is not Mao's China anymore. There was never any contest between the British and Argentina. UK was the #3 power in the world behind USA & USSR and Argentina was a nobody that was conceited due to its well-performing economy making it a middle-income country back then. They assumed that just because they were a part of the Spanish Empire, they could take down such a powerful country. The rest of Falklands story we all know; the Gurkha regiment shredded Argentinian forces by the hundreds, while Royal Navy's Harrier jets flattened any expeditionary forces Argentina tried to send to Las Malvinas.

Look at Biden-Harris and tell me; do you really think they would put American boots on the ground against a country that can retaliate against its mainland?
 

ezsasa

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It will also occupy it, and suffer tremendously for it.
There's no point in murdering someone but not stealing their purse of you're a robber.


China won't be in a state to war with us after taking over Taiwan.
-as things stand today, CCP has the cash reserves and clout to resist/negotiate a diplomatic boycott if they choose to take over taiwan.
-CCP won't care about own military casualties, they would just throw men at taiwan like they have done in other theatres in the past.
-at this point in time, there is no MAD between Taiwan and CCP. statement here and there, but we don't know for sure if taiwan actually has the capability.

as an exmaple, i present yemen and ukraine. what is the world doing? nothing much on the ground except for using the situation to settle their old strategic scores.
 

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