India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

[Lancer]

I used to think so along these lines. That the next 26/11 will cost Pakistan PoK. However, Modi's response (lack thereof) to Ladakh has completely eroded that belief.

We have also ceded our strategic canvas vis a vis Pakistan to America by conforming to their arbitrary definition of "proportionate response" (i.e. we can only take one eye for an eye, no more, the scale of our retaliation can never be deterrent in nature, only retaliatory, and strictly proportionate to the Pakistani provocation).

We Indian public are such fools that we even accepted Modi's trick of sugarcoating this BS by calling it "surgical strikes" and "calibrated response." Every time there's a Paki attack, we are programmed to expect - and celebrate - "surgical strikes of some huts in PoK" and not "carpet bombing of Lahore"

Until India is willing to become Iran for the next 10-15 years, forget about PoK.

Paki terror will not stop until they start losing territory to India.

There's a big difference between a 26/11 and a Uri. Like it or not, the world sees losing 10-20 soldiers as the natural/inherent cost of having a military presence in a rebellious and contested territory.

Similarly, I didn't expect India to go to war over Pulwama either; though I do believe we could've justified a "sustained period of anti-terror Ops in PoJK" after that attack. Still, an airstrike on Pak proper (for the first time since '71) which took out ~300 terrorists and possibly some soldiers/military installations @ Chakoti and Muzaffarabad was a good step. And don't forget, we used that opportunity to finish Articles 370 + 35A and more or less crackdown militarily on the valley as well.

There's a clear escalation from no response post-Pathankot, to commando raids post-Uri, and the Airstrike post-Pulwama. Both in terms of progression over time, and with greater & greater casualties in terror attacks - it made sense. We are steadily climbing the escalation ladder. But I do firmly believe that now that we have already gotten our foot in the door, and set certain historical precedents, our responses need to become more proactive/preemptive and increasingly disproportionate/escalatory re: Pakistan.

OTOH, a big terror attack against civilians, in mainland India - is a different situation altogether. I don't really share your pessimism, but then beyond a certain point, discussing these things over and over again on forums becomes pointless - we won't really know the truth until such a situation (and its response/lack of response occurs).

 

[SimplyIndian]

No, but we have the ability to conquer G-B without any "long conflict."

let modi win internal war first. If we go to war, strike by ofb and other orgs are last thing we need. At the same time media trials, lobby, elements who can start riots or make indian image week by fake news.

We also need ample ammo which we dont have now, we are literally begging for defense ammo.

IF we go to war in this situation there is very high chance that modi will be stopped before we win any significant territory. What are repercussions ? Modi will lose public support, 2024 election. All the ground work we have done for last 6 yrs will go in vein.

let us wait, prepare and then go to war. It will be 2.5 front.

Pak, China and internal anti nationals. Let us be ready. Stakes are very high. One mistake cost yrs of work.

Losing one battle is required to win the war. we can not expect modi will do all rights of things done in last 70 yrs in 6-7 yrs. Can we?

question is do we need to win the battle and lose the war? OR
lose the battle and win the war?

i think GOI has made the choice.

 

[Lancer]

Agreed,
We may not have a war but surely a skirmish if neither side is willing to back down,

Problem I see in your theory is the expectation that CCP is rational or Xi would be willing to listen to other countries leaders to de-escalate.

Yes, that's a big wildcard in this situation (though the more irrational China becomes, the more international pressure will build on them, and the more international support/goodwill India will collect). Ultimately, I think Xi is a rational and fairly intelligent actor (even if blinded by arrogance) who is strategically feigning madness, in a watered down version of what Pakistan has done for ~70 years.

In the future, it would be good if India seizes that "irrational" card by responding quickly and disproportionately to such incursions.

 

[BangaliBabu]

I remember reading about having a provision for mandatory draft in the Indian Constitution if the Parliament so wills it?

Emergency powers vested with the GoI is taken from the Third Reich, neither Germany nor Prussia nor the Wermacht. The Third Reich, Third f**kin' Reich!! Anybody recommended, called for or even considered fit for draft will have to attend military duty given he/she falls within the age gap as determined by GoI. Failure to do that and the person will be regarded a traitor and stripped of his Fundamental Rights. That means he better live in exile after that or risk losing his life and dignity. That's how stringent the GoI's emergency powers are.

 

[Knowitall]

let modi win internal war first. If we go to war, strike by ofb and other orgs are last thing we need. At the same time media trials, lobby, elements who can start riots or make indian image week by fake news.

We also need ample ammo which we dont have now, we are literally begging for defense ammo.

IF we go to war in this situation there is very high chance that modi will be stopped before we win any significant territory. What are repercussions ? Modi will lose public support, 2024 election. All the ground work we have done for last 6 yrs will go in vein.

let us wait, prepare and then go to war. It will be 2.5 front.

Pak, China and internal anti nationals. Let us be ready. Stakes are very high. One mistake cost yrs of work.

Losing one battle is required to win the war. we can not expect modi will do all rights of things done in last 70 yrs in 6-7 yrs. Can we?

question is do we need to win the battle and lose the war? OR
lose the battle and win the war?

i think GOI has made the choice.

Sab sapne dekhlo ofb hasn't gone in the past 6 years why do you expect it will go now?

Media trials randi rona by a certain amount of population will always exist no matter what you do you cannot expect full support.

"Let us wait prepare"

this quote will be the doom of ours kuch bhi hota hai prepare karo wait karo phirse wait karo prepare karo then after few years again preparation is not enough.

chutiya banane ke tarike hai prepare karo clown bano.

please tell me what makes you think India will be prepared over the next few years.

what makes you think that pakistan and china won't be prepared to counter our preparedness over the next few years?

The thing is modi won't be there for ever we cannot expect this we cannot expect that unfortunately for us our enemies are not waiting for modi to get things in order first.

It was and it is a race against time you don't shout jan de denge for aksai chin then and then run to russia to gather war supplies.

GOI has made no such decision what they have certainly done is throw this whole issue under the carpet.

I will say this once again don't bank on the let us wait nonsense there is no perfect time only opportunities.

 

[SimplyIndian]

Sab sapne dekhlo ofb hasn't gone in the past 6 years why do you expect it will go now?

Media trials randi rona by a certain amount of population will always exist no matter what you do you cannot expect full support.

"Let us wait prepare"

this quote will be the doom of ours kuch bhi hota hai prepare karo wait karo phirse wait karo prepare karo then after few years again preparation is not enough.

chutiya banane ke tarike hai prepare karo clown bano.

please tell me what makes you think India will be prepared over the next few years.

what makes you think that pakistan and china won't be prepared to counter our preparedness over the next few years?

The thing is modi won't be there for ever we cannot expect this we cannot expect that unfortunately for us our enemies are not waiting for modi to get things in order first.

It was and it is a race against time you don't shout jan de denge for aksai chin then and then run to russia to gather war supplies.

GOI has made no such decision what they have certainly done is throw this whole issue under the carpet.

I will say this once again don't bank on the let us wait nonsense there is no perfect time only opportunities.

You should not fight with knife when your enemy has rifle.

If anyone can not see why Media, opposition want modi to declare war on china is that they know if modi go to war he lose for sure, and dynasty will be master of you and me again with secret deal with China.

I am sure we will have significant defence in coming years max 3-4. Why? look at what govt is doing at war footing. Read about govt policy shift for defense in last 3 months.

India's defence progress under Modi

1. 36 Rafael fighter aircrafts for IAF

2. 28 Apache attack helicopters

3. 15 Chinook choppers

4. Surface to Air missiles from Israel MR-SAM

5. 145 ultra light howitzers

6. 100 K9 Vajra artillery guns

7. 1.86 lakh bullet proof jackets

8. 7.5 laks AK-203 assault rifles for replacing all Insas rifles being used for 22 years

9. 5 squadrons of S400 surface to Air missiles systems

10. Missile tracking ship order at Hindustan shipyard

11. 7 stealth frigates

12. 6 nuclear power attack submarine

13. 10 heron UAV armed

14. 4 Poseidon Navy Planes

15. 83 Tejas MK1A fighters to replace mig 21

16. Barak-8 LR SAM for Navy ships missiles

All of the above plus

1. Research spending in DRDO to develop brahmos, Akash etc.

2. Research spending in ISRO to put military satallites in the sky

and many more...coming in future.

There may be war in few months, but we are well prepared in 4-5 yrs. Writings are very clear on the wall.

Fight if you can win, prepare if you can not.

 

[Sanglamorre]

Is this the political talks after army talks filmed?

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Is this the political talks after army talks filmed?

Any reports of change in deployment? Are troops / armour pulled back...?

 

[Knowitall]

You should not fight with knife when your enemy has rifle.

If anyone can not see why Media, opposition want modi to declare war on china is that they know if modi go to war he lose for sure, and dynasty will be master of you and me again with secret deal with China.

I am sure we will have significant defence in coming years max 3-4. Why? look at what govt is doing at war footing. Read about govt policy shift for defense in last 3 months.

India's defence progress under Modi

1. 36 Rafael fighter aircrafts for IAF

2. 28 Apache attack helicopters

3. 15 Chinook choppers

4. Surface to Air missiles from Israel MR-SAM

5. 145 ultra light howitzers

6. 100 K9 Vajra artillery guns

7. 1.86 lakh bullet proof jackets

8. 7.5 laks AK-203 assault rifles for replacing all Insas rifles being used for 22 years

9. 5 squadrons of S400 surface to Air missiles systems

10. Missile tracking ship order at Hindustan shipyard

11. 7 stealth frigates

12. 6 nuclear power attack submarine

13. 10 heron UAV armed

14. 4 Poseidon Navy Planes

15. 83 Tejas MK1A fighters to replace mig 21

16. Barak-8 LR SAM for Navy ships missiles

All of the above plus

1. Research spending in DRDO to develop brahmos, Akash etc.

2. Research spending in ISRO to put military satallites in the sky

and many more...coming in future.

There may be war in few months, but we are well prepared in 4-5 yrs. Writings are very clear on the wall.

Fight if you can win, prepare if you can not.

What?

All these defence purchases are known to me too none of these purchase show any sort of huge growth as being claimed by you.

Al these defense purchase have been made under similar budgets.

There has been only a little increase in our defense budget over the past few years.

Also what you have once again failed to factor and what I stated before we are not the only one undergoing modernization.

Both pakistan and china are also undergoing modernization so that brings us to the question will we be prepared to face their modernized force after a few years.

All these are just cheap arguments India is not only well prepared but we'll placed to fight a two front war.

 

[SimplyIndian]

What?

All these defence purchases are known to me too none of these purchase show any sort of huge growth as being claimed by you.

Al these defense purchase have been made under similar budgets.

There has been only a little increase in our defense budget over the past few years.

Also what you have once again failed to factor and what I stated before we are not the only one undergoing modernization.

Both pakistan and china are also undergoing modernization so that brings us to the question will we be prepared to face their modernized force after a few years.

All these are just cheap arguments India is not only well prepared but we'll placed to fight a two front war.

Why you insisting to go to war?
Do you want GOI to lose, both internally and externally?
Do you have any idea what GOI is doing to manage internal anti national sentiments ? Both China and Pak dont have that issue. Both dont care about democracy, in one no elections, in other military call the shot.

Do you want modi to risk everything he has done in last 6 years go in drain?

 

[Sanglamorre]

Any reports of change in deployment? Are troops / armour pulled back...?

No news of that. Besides, the meeting just happened. Chances are there'll be multiple sessions now.

 

[Knowitall]

Why you insisting to go to war?
Do you want GOI to lose, both internally and externally?
Do you have any idea what GOI is doing to manage internal anti national sentiments ? Both China and Pak dont have that issue. Both dont care about democracy, in one no elections, in other military call the shot.

Do you want modi to risk everything he has done in last 6 years go in drain?

And how the hell do you know he is going to lose what makes you think we are going to lose.

Please explain exactly where are we currently lacking in our deployments against pakistan or china that will result in us losing if you cant dont spew this bullshit on me.

And you have any fucking clue?


"Internal anti national sentiments"

What are you going to do about it huh transport them all out the country so that India can be safe from inside?

No you cant they will continue to live here and cause trouble you cant do jack shit about it.

Remember shaheen bagh ?

What did the govt do?

Sometimes you have to let things be the way they are bjp is very popular overall have huge support.

If during war time there is any disruption by the anti nationals which you fear so badly they will end up being handled by the public alone a prime case is delhi and gujarat.

Dont use this useless bogeyman of internal war here. you say it as if they are going to lay seige on the country and blow everything up.

Any riots during war time when nationalism is at an all time high will get swept away in a week at max.

Please go and do this dhoti shivering somewhere else.

 

[Knowitall]

No news of that. Besides, the meeting just happened. Chances are there'll be multiple sessions now.

What are we exactly expecting here what are we hoping from this meeting?

Can you explain.

 

[DownWithCCP]

What are we exactly expecting here what are we hoping from this meeting?

Can you explain.

That is a million dollar question, idk what these guys keep "talking" about, I believe,correct me if I am wrong, talks only work when there is a give and take situation or when the enemy is on its knees, or when the talks happen at the highest level.

 

[Sanglamorre]

What are we exactly expecting here what are we hoping from this meeting?

Can you explain.

Face saving exit. Unlike the past, public now has satellite imagery that will unravel any fake govt narrative of China/India pulled back scared of 9D chess. So, the pullback needs to be visible, even if temporary.

 

[Knowitall]

That is a million dollar question, idk what these guys keep "talking" about, I believe,correct me if I am wrong, talks only work when there is a give and take situation or when the enemy is on its knees, or when the talks happen at the highest level.

Funnily enough India actually has a strong position against china militarily in the Tibet region.

But the problem is all this diplomatic statements have actually only emboldened the Chinese to hold onto those positions because their guess that the GOI won't fight back is coming true.

This a great learning experience for them because if we let this go we are effectively telling the Chinese that as long as it's away from the glare of the media and public they can do whatever they want to.

 

[Illusive]

An effective preempt might bring it down to the low 5 figures....
Air and Navy should be used generously...
Impossible with China breathing down our neck.

It is not impossible, what we need is intent and proper buildup. India's military modernization is shockingly slow. We have missed our chances in the past due to political pussyfooting.

Make proper relations with Taiwan. Make sure the only way China can take over Taiwan is not political but military. And if ever China makes that move, that is when we have the window for GB. For that we need to prepare and cultivate relations with Taiwan.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Do you want modi to risk everything he has done in last 6 years go in drain?

There were 6 years.. and its only after a Pulwama or a Galwan incident that Modi Gov. rushes like mad.. to arm israeli drones, or buy ammunition, or BVR missiles, or scout for Light tanks. Also, outlay for defence as a percentage of budget has slightly dipped during modi rule..

 

[kaaleshwaar]

Emergency powers vested with the GoI is taken from the Third Reich, neither Germany nor Prussia nor the Wermacht. The Third Reich, Third f**kin' Reich!! Anybody recommended, called for or even considered fit for draft will have to attend military duty given he/she falls within the age gap as determined by GoI. Failure to do that and the person will be regarded a traitor and stripped of his Fundamental Rights. That means he better live in exile after that or risk losing his life and dignity. That's how stringent the GoI's emergency powers are.

Imagine It being used in a battle for survival of Bharat......a clash of Civilizations...a Righteous War...Dharmayudh similar to Kurukshetra to wipeout adharma and establish Dharma once again....absolute goosebumps

 

[Sanglamorre]

There were 6 years.. and its only after a Pulwama or a Galwan incident that Modi Gov. rushes like mad.. to arm israeli drones, or buy ammunition, or BVR missiles, or scout for Light tanks. Also, outlay for defence as a percentage of budget has slightly dipped during modi rule..

I think the issue is simple. Modi govt is following a bullet list of long impending decisions and reforms. 370, Ram Mandir etc are very good things that have been done, but the crucial bit is that they were long impending, which means no those were challenges of the past. Meanwhile, the security risks we are facing are challenges of the present.

The bullet list didn't account for present realities to this extent. Their playbook from UCC to Atmanirbharata has been policies and agendas set atleast 4 decades ago, and back then this present situation wasn't envisioned in their policies. So that's why national security gives the Modi govt such a headache.


Just so we're clear, the position of BJP wrt China set in past has been of cooperation and friendly relations to bring an Asian age. There's no policy set for seriious confrontation. That's why you see the policy paralysis of today.

With Pakistan, it includes claims and proclamations of PoK is ours, but not military action.

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That is my reading of it.