India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

[prasadr14]

Long conventional wars between countries are largely a thing of the past now. With the exception of long term invasion + foreign occupations like AFG or Iraq.

A situation like the current one between India and China cannot start a long war, it's not really justifiable. On the other hand, if there is some severe threat or provocation (think 26/11 or 9/11) - then we may see a more grand, long-lasting war. But even those types of wars will be executed in much quicker fashion than they would have been in the past.

I would believe losing territory is a big red line for any country to go to war!
Surprised you would feel Chinese status status quo and grabbing land is not justifiable for war.

 

[Lancer]

I would believe losing territory is a big red line for any country to go to war!
Surprised you would feel Chinese status status quo and grabbing land is not justifiable for war.

International Community always jumps in and tries to mediate a peace/demands explanation.

India is justified to undertake a response of similar magnitude to what the Chinese are doing, whereas the Chinese have pretty much no justification for anything they're doing at all. There's no real scope for a massive war to erupt.

If both sides enter a spiral of escalation; we may head in the direction of a big war, but again the world will step in before things get too bad. Neither country really has a significant enough grievance like the example I gave (a 26/11 type attack, a 1965 style conspiracy to capture vast territory, or even a 1971 type humanitarian situation) to go for a big war.

Even in '99, when Pak had actually invaded real Indian territory (and not a no man's land/gray area that India claimed to occasionally patrol) - the Kargil conflict never escalated into a full war, even within J&K we didn't cross the LoC, let alone crossing IB. It was essentially a sustained period of clean up ops within Indian territory.

In this day and age, you need a very solid reason to go for a sizable war, and you have to make it as quick as possible.

 

[tarunraju]

On the other hand, if there is some severe threat or provocation (think 26/11 or 9/11) - then we may see a more grand, long-lasting war. But even those types of wars will be executed in much quicker fashion than they would have been in the past.

I used to think so along these lines. That the next 26/11 will cost Pakistan PoK. However, Modi's response (lack thereof) to Ladakh has completely eroded that belief.

We have also ceded our strategic canvas vis a vis Pakistan to America by conforming to their arbitrary definition of "proportionate response" (i.e. we can only take one eye for an eye, no more, the scale of our retaliation can never be deterrent in nature, only retaliatory, and strictly proportionate to the Pakistani provocation).

We Indian public are such fools that we even accepted Modi's trick of sugarcoating this BS by calling it "surgical strikes" and "calibrated response." Every time there's a Paki attack, we are programmed to expect - and celebrate - "surgical strikes of some huts in PoK" and not "carpet bombing of Lahore"

Until India is willing to become Iran for the next 10-15 years, forget about PoK.

Paki terror will not stop until they start losing territory to India.

 

[JBH22]

I used to think so along these lines. That the next 26/11 will cost Pakistan PoK. However, Modi's response (lack thereof) to Ladakh has completely eroded that belief.

We have also ceded our strategic canvas vis a vis Pakistan to America by conforming to their arbitrary definition of "proportionate response" (i.e. we can only take one eye for an eye, no more, the scale of our retaliation can never be deterrent, and only retribution, and proportionate to the Pakistani provocation). It's just that Modi figured out a way to sugarcoat this turd by calling it "surgical strikes" and "calibrated response."

Until India is willing to become Iran for the next 10-15 years, forget about PoK.

We are not Russia who can sustain long conflict without any internal discontent.
After kargil all the Randi Rona about Aman ki ASHA brigade

 

[tarunraju]

We are not Russia who can sustain long conflict without any internal discontent.
After kargil all the Randi Rona about Aman ki ASHA brigade

No, but we have the ability to conquer G-B without any "long conflict."

 

[prasadr14]

International Community always jumps in and tries to mediate a peace/demands explanation.

India is justified to undertake a response of similar magnitude to what the Chinese are doing, whereas the Chinese have pretty much no justification for anything they're doing at all. There's no real scope for a massive war to erupt.

If both sides enter a spiral of escalation; we may head in the direction of a big war, but again the world will step in before things get too bad. Neither country really has a significant enough grievance like the example I gave (a 26/11 type attack, a 1965 style conspiracy to capture vast territory, or even a 1971 type humanitarian situation) to go for a big war.

Even in '99, when Pak had actually invaded real Indian territory (and not a no man's land/gray area that India claimed to occasionally patrol) - the Kargil conflict never escalated into a full war, even within J&K we didn't cross the LoC, let alone crossing IB. It was essentially a sustained period of clean up ops within Indian territory.

In this day and age, you need a very solid reason to go for a sizable war, and you have to make it as quick as possible.

Agreed,
We may not have a war but surely a skirmish if neither side is willing to back down,

Problem I see in your theory is the expectation that CCP is rational or Xi would be willing to listen to other countries leaders to de-escalate.

 

[utubekhiladi]

Deescalation Hogaya Kya?

 

[DownWithCCP]

Deescalation Hogaya Kya?

For some reasong the govt. and the media has been exceptionally quiet when it comes to china from the past few weeks, the latest issue was the MoD document being uploaded and taken down subsequently.

 

[Jailor]

A few experts were saying august might be the month of action, now it seems they are predicting September.

 

[utubekhiladi]

A few experts were saying august might be the month of action, now it seems they are predicting September.

it was always mid-aug to mid-sep. it hasn't changed.

 

[Jailor]

it was always mid-aug to mid-sep. it hasn't changed.

But the chinese have strengthened there positions considerably, and deployed all across LAC,

I still wish we go for CPEC.

 

[utubekhiladi]

But the chinese have strengthened there positions considerably, and deployed all across LAC,

I still wish we go for CPEC.

click the play button. the video should start playing from certain point. even though you may or may-not understand the language, you will understand the message. this will also answer your question about massive chicom deployment at border

 

[Sehwag213]

No, but we have the ability to conquer G-B without any "long conflict."

Capture of GB isn't going to happen without loss of atleast 30000-40000 in extremely hostile territory plus economic cost of 50-100 billion dollar.
I doubt country is prepared for that

 

[utubekhiladi]

Capture of GB isn't going to happen without loss of atleast 30000-40000 in extremely hostile territory plus economic cost of 50-100 billion dollar.
I doubt country is prepared for that

the cost of NOT capturing GB today will be 100x Higher in future and it will be threat for our own survival. regardless of the cost today, we need to stop and end this cpec non-sense and get back our territory.

 

[Brood Father]

I find it amusing that we cannot dislodge Chinese from their strategic position from Laddhak and here we are dreaming nuts over attacking GB and Aksai chin.

Neither army nor our government has intent for bloodshed .. And pardon for being too pessimistic but if we are able to hold ground from ChinPork onslought, that would be a miracle.

 

[Sanglamorre]

Not tomorrow but we are counting in months rather than years.

The huge forward deployment of Chinese is an eye opener unless somebody is blind.

What about the winters? Are you expecting an attack when we'd be vulnerable in winters?

 

[Waanar]

Capture of GB isn't going to happen without loss of atleast 30000-40000 in extremely hostile territory plus economic cost of 50-100 billion dollar.
I doubt country is prepared for that

An effective preempt might bring it down to the low 5 figures....
Air and Navy should be used generously...
Impossible with China breathing down our neck.

 

[Sehwag213]

An effective preempt might bring it down to the low 5 figures....
Air and Navy should be used generously...
Impossible with China breathing down our neck.

That will only happen if we open second front in Rajasthan. And Navy uses all its resources.

 

[Waanar]

That will only happen if we open second front in Rajasthan. And Navy uses all its resources.

I remember reading about having a provision for mandatory draft in the Indian Constitution if the Parliament so wills it?

 

[Spindrift]

I remember reading about having a provision for mandatory draft in the Indian Constitution if the Parliament so wills it?

Yeah, its under the fundamental duties section of the constitution Part IV A, Article 51 –A sub clause #4

And they are as follows.
1). Abide by the Constitution and respect national flag & National Anthem
2). Follow ideals of the freedom struggle
3). Protect sovereignty & integrity of India
4). Defend the country and render national services when called upon
5). Spirit of common brotherhood
6). Preserve composite culture
7). Preserve natural environment
8). Develop scientific temper
9). Safeguard public property
10). Strive for excellence
11). Duty of all parents/guardians to send their children in the age group of 6-14 years to school.