India-China 2020 Border conflict

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IndianYonko

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mokoman

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Most critical period would be the dates of the US elections. There is lots of controversy going on there with respect to mail ballots/ballot harvesting etc. If the results are not overwhelming for either then it could be decided in the mail ballots. This could delay counting. Also the current supreme court justice has passed away (liberal) & apparently she had a last wish that next judge be nominated only by the new president. All these will create more problems between RW & LW there, we can expect a lot of rallies, counter rallies, fights etc. US admin would be completely engaged in this scenario. China might make a "spectacular" move during this time.

Any members from US posting here for more inputs? We need to track this, if the elections there would be a smooth affair or not this time.



Fifth column activated

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Baba could be bullshitting .

Even his pinned tweet is bullshit,you can easily check online , all major indian news sites are blocked in china , including NDTV , ThePrint


The point of that tweet is play on peoples feeling , nothing more .

The guy could have been a spy , or simply could be another Nambi Narayanan like case.
 

omaebakabaka

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Bhadra

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@Bhadra kya mujhe aap yeh bata sakte he ki is there anyway to push the Melcchas out of the bottle neck through the military means.
Why not? This forum has a long thread on Chinese intrusion in Depsang in in 2013.
It is now seven years down the line that someone is asking this question. I believe the then PM MMS said " you have not told me anything, I do not know, Just keep quiet" or something like that.

If China is undertaking some operation militarily, then ways also exist to overcome that militarily. If Chinese have been doing that since 2013, it means our MEA has accepted the ground facts and not advising to change it. There can not be two ways about it. It simply means the political leadership and MEA bureacrcy are ready to bear the consequences of it. Well if not that well else massage has been conveyed to the Chinese. Why is ITBP or Army not agitated about it for seven years? Obviously there is no political clearance.

The ground problem is that terrain beyond the Bottleneck is difficult and not motorable. So has ITBP not established a post at Bottleneck itself and preclude Chinese rushing there and preventing further movement. Or why alternate routes to LAC have not been found.

The question is why CSG not identifies frest Patrolling points and asked ITBP to keep continue patrolling...

This tendency of falling on Army for all problems without you having done anything on your part is a typical police tendency that needs to be nipped in the bud. The GoI must ask ITBP and claer all bottlenecks. Or why are they there??

Let us see how many soldiers sacrifices will be the cost of inactivity of other agencies there.
 

Shashank Nayak

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Better experts in foreign relations than the service created for it?

Does any country have better non diplomatic stream people with better cred than trained diplomats?
The security related aspects and the extent of diplomatic support in case of war from any particular nation can be gauged by the PM from his own interactions with leaders of other states, the IFS Cadre, as well as from government supported think tanks.. What is the exclusive domain of the IFS Cadre is implementing the PMs strategic vision in capitals of various nations. The bureaucrats are an important factor, and not the ones who drive the agenda especially when a decisive leader in the mould of Churchill or Roosevelt is involved.. I am not saying that Modi is such a man.. When Indira Gandhi decided to wage war against Pakistan, there certainly would have been babus who tried to convince Indira that US and China would take military action against India, in case India planned to liberate Bangladesh.That the economy was a total mess, which it was in 1971. But, she still went ahead.. Yes, lesser men might be overwhelmed by the bureaucrats..
 

Knowitall

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Fundamental question is much more broad.

When did India ever have a long term strategic vision for itself? My argument is never. Most of the times our strategic are reactionary.

Bureaucracy aligns itself as per the strategic goals of the nation, without a direction chaos is imperative.

Counter arguments can be made that, it’s been only 30 years of economic reform and only 15 years of last big change in strategic direction.

There is no point in blaming X or Y group.

I say most fundamental thing we have to start with is for the Indian citizens to figure out where do they want the country to be in 10 and 30 and 50 years from now. This fundamental debate has to start today, if people are clear about it then the bureaucracy and politicians will align themselves to the goal. I asked this question before here at DFI before as well, I am yet to see a meaningful debate at any level of public discourse.

There is only one group in the country who have absolute clarity on what they want in 25 to 50 years timespan, that is Breaking India forces. Rest are running around like headlines chickens just reacting to events, and busy critiquing everybody else but themselves.
There was indeed a a time when India had a long term strategic vision for itself it was during the Indira gandhi era. she of course came with her own baggage and created many problems but sticking to the current topic yes she was the only under whom India had a strategic goal of sorts.

Indira doctrine was you could say was India's one and only military and diplomatic policy to ever exist.

It centres on dissuading the influence of external countries within South Asia that have either implicit or explicit anti-Indian agendas, primarily via the deployment of India’s military forces as both a deterrent and an interventionist foreign-policy tool. The doctrine typified India’s approach to South Asia in the 1970s and 1980s, including the Indian Peacekeeping Mission to Sri Lanka in the 1980s

India's new hegemonic position, as articulated under the "Indira Doctrine", led to attempts to bring the Himalayan states under India's sphere of influence. [Kapur, Harish (2009). Foreign Policies Of India's Prime Ministers ]. After Sikkim there were indications that Nepal and Bhutan were going to be merged sooner or later. We maintained an anti-Islamist insurgency in Bangladesh always keeping them firmly under us.

In order to keep the Soviet Union and the United States out of South Asia, Gandhi was instrumental in establishing the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in 1983.
 

IndianYonko

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Baba could be bullshitting .

Even his pinned tweet is bullshit,you can easily check online , all major indian news sites are blocked in china , including NDTV , ThePrint


The point of that tweet is play on peoples feeling , nothing more .

The guy could have been a spy , or simply could be another Nambi Narayanan like case.
Did we catch the perpetrators in Nambi Narayan Case or it is still hanging? If they are still roaming free, then this is how you convert an SSC or UPSC recruits to babus. Then people here keep on posting about babus in MEA and MoD. My point is Bc we don't make people accountable. Is enforcing the accountability sole responsibility of the public in elections rest are not responsible? It's not even the fault of people or politicians,

Our founders Gandhi-Nehru fucked up big time and that's the sole reason every committee every group be it CSG or something else it fails. Let see if rot deeps or situation is reversed. Let's hope for the best.
 

captscooby81

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It was policy of Senior chinese gandhi after his 1988 visit to peking . not to develop border area infrastructure it was continued by other PMs also the real impact of this move came only after 2000 when china started becoming a construction maniac and started building border infra in lightening speed . so MMS was caught again in the hot seat and finally woke up and changed the policy in 2012 but then it was too late as CCP had 12-15 year head start by then . what Modi is trying in LAC is trying to catch up 20-25 year chinese infra build up in this last 72 months , there is always a level to which it can be pushed to speed up beyond that first mover will always have advantage .

son of a bitch
 

tarunraju

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What are the possibilities of Chinese launching an offensive right before the winter to capture territories??
High. Everyone here on DFI expects late-September action, hence the huge supply convoys, and mechanized deployments over the past week.

The passes start freezing up in October, and by late October you'll need to be wearing a space suit for any meaningful combat.
 

samsaptaka

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A politician of calibre can always smell the rot in a bureaucrat.. And the PM can always avail expertise from outside the bureaucracy ..
Yes, he can indeed overrule bullshitting babus. But why is he not doing it ? Is it because he wants our economy to be completely decoupled from chinks and then make to move?

They have good advisors on that front maybe? Except NEP, both are somewhat political decisions which BJP itself has decent experts on.

Foreign relations and all that? I'm not of that at all. In fact I'm guessing this is coming from RSS/BJP itself seeing the Ram Madhav tweet deletion. Their political experts effective in intra country matters are actively discouraging things when it's about China.
Lost faith in Ram Madhav after his bungled handling of kashmir with mufti bitch.

When did India ever have a long term strategic vision for itself? My argument is never. Most of the times our strategic are reactionary.
Absolutely ! This is *the* most fundamental problem , there is no long term strategic military and economic thinking and goal setting. Our IFS UPSC IAS babus are only interested in earning money . Think tanks like Vivekananda Foundation do sound good but they've no power. Foreign policy and strategic affairs is bungled time and again by pyjama shivering babu ministers .
 

utubekhiladi

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High. Everyone here on DFI expects late-September action, hence the huge supply convoys, and mechanized deployments over the past week.
September 28 - October 5
(give or take 3 days)

The passes start freezing up in October, and by late October you'll need to be wearing a space suit for any meaningful combat.
I always like to read your post. its always filled with fact and to the point and you have high sense of humor. are you retired veteran (military personal) by any chance?
 

Nationalist Manasvi Papa

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I know I may get called a lot of things for this but,

What if India exploded nuclear bombs on the Himalayas McArthur style, wouldn't that prevent chyna from trespassing?
 

captscooby81

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Here people are still hoping russia mediated negotiations will work in India favor , where as ruskies are sending their troops to eastern side to protect their economic master .

Russia announces troop build-up in Far East

Alexander Marrow
,
ReutersSeptember 17, 2020


MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia is increasing its military presence in the Far East in response to rising tensions in the wider region, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Thursday.

In remarks cited on the defence ministry website, Shoigu said reinforcements were being sent because of tensions in the "eastern strategic direction", referring to an area encompassing Russia's eastern border with China and the wider Asia-Pacific.

Shoigu did not specify what the new threats were, or where the additional troops would go. He promised 500 units of new and modernised equipment for the region, as well as some improvements to the navy's Northern Fleet.

Alexander Gabuev, an analyst at Moscow's Carnegie Centre, said Russia was ensuring it has sufficient military capabilities in an area where conflicts could spill over, noting a rising risk of a naval clash between the United States and China.

"Russia cannot be left defenceless and it also needs to operate its capabilites there, in terms of air force, defence and personnel," he said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia's concerns in the Far East centred around the actions of powers from outside the region, without specifying any countries or conflicts.

"All of these, of course, do not contribute to stability in this region," said Peskov.

Russia's Far East has also lately seen one of the longest sustained anti-government protest movements of President Vladimir Putin's two decades in power. The city of Khabarovsk, near the Chinese border, has seen weeks of demonstrations against the arrest of a local political leader.

 
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