India-China 2020 Border conflict

tarunraju

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How come China has less number of tanks than India?
they have 3500 tanks and we have 4200 tanks according to Global Firepower 2020
Because India-China frontier doesn't allow large tank battles, and China's MBT numbers are designed for other smaller countries.

On the other hand, India's MBT stockpile is largely built on the possibility of tank-battles against Pakistan.

India's headache is the Rocket Force. If/when this is over India will have its own dedicate branches of the military that deal with:
  • Rockets (MBR, tactical missiles, and strategic missiles)
  • Unmanned Aerial Warfare (specializing in pro-/anti-swarming, combat and recon UAVs, etc.
  • Cyber warfare
  • Information warfare
  • Space warfare
 

Dessert Storm

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Getting back to the question of why China created the border issue

1. India building border infra theory - This is not a new development unless India went very close to the LAC. But Chinese would have known that a buildup on their side would invite a buildup on Indian side which would only provide more security and accelerate the infra development.

2. Teach a lesson theory - India edging closer to USA etc but this has been going on for years. Also given the formidable Himalayan barrier, there is not realistic chance of a outright Chinese win, atmost a marginal victory in a localized conflict.

3. India will not fight back theory - Doklam was a rude wakeup call for the Chinese that India was getting proactive. Also the Balakot attacks etc would have indicated that India was willing to take risks

4. Protect CPEC theory - This can be a reason but CPEC is never going to replace the sea route because of lower volumes and other inherent problems.

5. Bleed India economically theory - Possibly but China would also be spending money to keep its troops on the border. Also lots of benefits have accrued to India, especially the recognition over the world that it is the only army today standing up to China

6. Make Modi look bad theory - Use the press to defame Modi to damage him politically. Congress and their cronies were egging on a fight (which may still happen but not at the time of their choosing). But sending 3 divisions to defame someone looks crazy.

7. Make a fast land grab theory - Try to grab territory fast because of better infra on Chinese side. This seems somewhat plausible but does not explain the reluctance to retreat once that failed.

8. Prevent India from grabbing land theory - Plausible but there are doubts why India would make a land grab when battling China virus.

9. Wake up India theory - Chinese thinking that a strong India might be more amenable to cooperation and therefore just shake up Indian politicians and babus. This may be very implausible but who knows.

10. Settle boundary theory - Faced with the inevitability of Indian growth and someday taking over POK/Aksai, try to settle the boundary now in the most favorable manner. Somewhat plausible but India can wait it out here if the terms are not favorable

11. Try to keep the western front safe while China fights the USA. China is about to invade Taiwan or Taiwan is about to declare independence (which in any case will happen concurrently). The US will have to invade China. While China is fighting that war, try to prevent India advancing into Aksai and POK. This seems to be the most plausible theory to me.

Any other theories ?
Chinese actions would be a combination of various from what you have mentioned or what you have not. It 'seems' that they have got themselves to a situation they did not game.
 

bajiraopeshwa

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One can also look at the problem posed by you the other way. It can be established that route of domination of China and an option to nullify the Indo Pecefic strategy lies in Ladakh. Sea route is not the only way of Chinese expansionism and extension of empire but BRI is which is a land approach too. Ladakh is a threat to Chinese BRI and China is trying to secure its expansionism through BRI by tackling Ladakh specially securing CPEC.

Do not see India from the glass of those countries which have no land borders - UK, USA and Austrelia or Newzealand . China has ventured into sea having adequately secured their land borders.

For India where does the greater threat lies to its sovereignty and security - on land or on seas? Give me settled and secure land borders and I will fervently write for disbanding Indian Army and give all to Navy...
Do not be a frog in the well...
Am not talking of disbanding the army but balancing between the army and the navy. If you want to threaten the Han heartland, you need a good navy (although if the US can secure a deal with Burma, a joint US-Indo thrust into the Chinese through the rear may be possible). If you want to choke Malacca, you need a good navy.

There is no huge threat to our sovereignty as such. The Himalayas are hard to penetrate. Pakistanis are a nuisance but not a threat really. Their last hope of threatening India was a quick armour thrust but that is no longer possible because of the Apaches.

The logistic scenario for China is a nightmare. Our supply lines to Arunachal are different from those for Uttarakhand which in turn are different from those for Ladakh. We have many routes. The Chinese have one route - the G219. If things flare up in Ladakh, we can threaten G219 elsewhere. This is the ultimate logistic nightmare.

Geography has been unkind to China (and kind to India) both on the land and sea fronts. And that is what we need to exploit.
 

cereal killer

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Nope, I think the party is still on if the plan has been on.

What can the chinese do to stop action on PoK.. Going by your own logic, they are gonna be stuffed in peak winter of 2020.

for what we can see China's overarching interest is to become top dog, these all play into that aim

You just can't now.. Unless China threat is now taken care of. There is genuine threat of losing DBO. If they are stuffed so are we. We are also digging in to prepare for peak winter.
Last time we did action in Kargil.. China managed to construct roads & infra on buffer zones & on its side. Now they are out there with their full Armada. Basically you have to take on China & push them first. Geopolitically it will more bigger than occupying PoK which can obviously be done later rather easily once we have full Rafale & S400 fleet.
 

Chandragupt Maurya

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Because India-China frontier doesn't allow large tank battles, and China's MBT numbers are designed for other smaller countries.

On the other hand, India's MBT stockpile is largely built on the possibility of tank-battles against Pakistan.
Correct that’s what I was thinking but by that logic Pakistan has much less number of tanks because they face threat from Afghanistan and Iran
And Afghanistan is very hostile towards Pakistan
India faces threat only from Pakistan and China and the terrain along India China border is not suitable for tank battle as you mentioned already
 

cereal killer

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How come China has less number of tanks than India?
they have 3500 tanks and we have 4200 tanks according to Global Firepower 2020
We got rather a plain border all long Paki border suitable for Tank warfare. China has got jungle front in Vietnam. Mangolia is useless. Gotta keep some for action along Siberia & India border
 

Dessert Storm

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Possible but the surprise element is gone and now any land taking will require lots of blood. India has had time to prepare and dig in (unlike in 1962). Even holding on to Aksai and Tibet will not be feasible in the long run when Indian economy inches closer to Chinese economy in PPP. Also the repurcussion of a localized defeat are much higher for the Chinese.

Already it appears China has lost too much in this standoff. Billions of dollars wiped out ($50 billion for just Bytedance by some estimates), lost a major growing economy for your business, lost credibility as a super power etc. Why dont they cut their losses and quit ?
I kindof agree to most of what u say. But never be too sure on the 'surprise'.
 

another_armchair

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Dalals #rNDTV #JNU

Don't lose your shit over Chunashekar and sundry other urban naxal closet jihadis.

They will meet the same fate that 'journalists' from The Caravan faced in East Delhi.

Keep sharing their outrageous tweets, posts and ensure their goodwill continues to grow manifold till it gets encashed in an isolated gulley.
 

Chandragupt Maurya

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You are assuming that Pakistan has the same amount of money to spend on tanks as India.
No but I have heard from some so called analysts that Pakistan despite being poor in comparison to India has managed to be at par with and even better than India in millitary preparedness
 

another_armchair

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No but I have heard from some so called analysts that Pakistan despite being poor in comparison to India has managed to be at par with and even better than India in millitary preparedness
Those analcysts have been proved wrong on multiple occasions since 2014 and the finale came with calling out their nooklear bluff on 26/2 when we bombed Balakot and a night blind PAF could do nothing.

The above, followed by repulsing their fairly large attack formation culminated in Abhi downing their prized F-16, being taken POW and after getting star treatment, walked across the Wagah looking all dapper like a true hero backed by 1.3 billion peace loving Indians.

Their military preparedness wet its pyjamas when we only uttered the three letter 'CSD - Cold Start Doctrine'.
 

bajiraopeshwa

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No its not such a great scenario for India.. Not sure how much strain it puts on China economically but we are going through some serious slump through there. Having two active borders is never an ideal scenario.
We have an active Paki front that we have somehow managed to control & is well within our spending capabilities since it was believed to premier threat.
Now Active China border which is very long can put too much strain on Indian economy & defence budgets. Imagine going through that like a decade. No country in the world would have this sorta position.
Ideally we have to take out one front sooner than later. Chinese will ultimately learn how to survive harsh winters after couple of years & will start being more formidable opponents.
Taking out Pakistan seems easy but we know Uncle Sam would not allow it. I guess Planning was to take back PoK during US elections.. 1971 style winter war with Pakistan. But China seem to have spoiled the party.
Imagine if the Chinese and Pakistanis were great friends of India. It would put far less strain on India. In comparison to the strain we are already undergoing economically because of these two, the current strain is an incremental one.

Even if Chinese learn mountain warfare, they have a logistics nightmare of having a single road from their heartland upto Xinjiang. Also digging in would be perceived as a weakness because they made the attacking move and then would be making the defensive move.

US is currently spending $50 billion on Afghanistan every year. One way forward would be for the US to give India $5 billion to $10 billion to handle Afghanistan and then spend the remaining on the Chinese front. With this money, India could afford to raise 2-3 divisions for Afghanistan and squeeze Pakistan from both ends.
 

Chandragupt Maurya

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Those analcysts have been proved wrong on multiple occasions since 2014 and the finale came with calling out their nooklear bluff on 26/2 when we bombed Balakot and a night blind PAF could do nothing.

The above, followed by repulsing their fairly large attack formation culminated in Abhi downing their prized F-16, being taken POW and after getting star treatment, walked across the Wagah looking all dapper like a true hero backed by 1.3 billion peace loving Indians.

Their military preparedness wet its pyjamas when we only uttered the three letter 'CSD - Cold Start Doctrine'.
There millitary prepardness was exposed in Balakot as well as kargil when they didn’t even accept the dead bodies of their soldiers
indian army buried them with full millitary honor
They can’t even take siachen from us which we captured in 1984
 

Dessert Storm

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You just can't now.. Unless China threat is now taken care of. There is genuine threat of losing DBO. If they are stuffed so are we. We are also digging in to prepare for peak winter.
Last time we did action in Kargil.. China managed to construct roads & infra on buffer zones & on its side. Now they are out there with their full Armada. Basically you have to take on China & push them first. Geopolitically it will more bigger than occupying PoK which can obviously be done later rather easily once we have full Rafale & S400 fleet.
The current standoff should not be looked at like silos. The cause-effects transcends theatres now. The opportunity and the circumstances that we have now won't be there in future. I believe we also would have gamed for two fronts. Given the robust stance and aggressive actions of Indian Armed Forces, there is a very real chance that a 'go' for a two front has been given to the Govt..... and the game (not to dilute the seriousness) is on.
 

shade

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No but I have heard from some so called analysts that Pakistan despite being poor in comparison to India has managed to be at par with and even better than India in millitary preparedness
Momins may be poor but they spend a large share of their GDP on military than us.
ofc because military runs that country, here babus and politicians run the country
 

cereal killer

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Imagine if the Chinese and Pakistanis were great friends of India. It would put far less strain on India. In comparison to the strain we are already undergoing economically because of these two, the current strain is an incremental one.

Even if Chinese learn mountain warfare, they have a logistics nightmare of having a single road from their heartland upto Xinjiang. Also digging in would be perceived as a weakness because they made the attacking move and then would be making the defensive move.

US is currently spending $50 billion on Afghanistan every year. One way forward would be for the US to give India $5 billion to $10 billion to handle Afghanistan and then spend the remaining on the Chinese front. With this money, India could afford to raise 2-3 divisions for Afghanistan and squeeze Pakistan from both ends.
Thing is India is not in any sort of alliance with US. So Uncle Sam is not dumb to give 5 billion $ to India for free. They have their economy to look after as well. Trump was gushing so much after he secured 3bn $ defence spending from us on his recent tour. So they are always looking for a pound of flesh.
Our own MIC is in a very poor shape to handle two active borders for a decade. We still rely on heavy arms imports so any sort of cut there is detrimental. I'd rather like to see a short war with China now rather than to man the borders. Armies are for fighting wars not to do a policing job.
 

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