India-China 2020 Border conflict

sagar

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I am still not able to understand what's there main objective is, DBO/Chushul/Pangong Tso. To much noise is being made in Chushul and Pangong Tso, probably a distraction . If a skirmish ,a big one, if will happen I think will be around DBO. But again if one views all this from top they are causing noises towards Taiwan and India, is there anything else they are actually eyeing. :lehappy:
 

Chanakya 002

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I am still not able to understand what's there main objective is, DBO/Chushul/Pangong Tso. To much noise is being made in Chushul and Pangong Tso, probably a distraction . If a skirmish ,a big one, if will happen I think will be around DBO. But again if one views all this from top they are causing noises towards Taiwan and India, is there anything else they are actually eyeing. :lehappy:
I believe it will be Demchok area as it is very near to their G219, they fears IA may cut their supply line by controlling this area.
 

spikey360

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I am still not able to understand what's there main objective is, DBO/Chushul/Pangong Tso. To much noise is being made in Chushul and Pangong Tso, probably a distraction . If a skirmish ,a big one, if will happen I think will be around DBO. But again if one views all this from top they are causing noises towards Taiwan and India, is there anything else they are actually eyeing. :lehappy:
Only a skirmish around Doklam is worth anything. It is the only weak point we have. A war in the tri-junction will spill over to Bhutan and overflow into the Chicken's Neck aka the Jalpaiguri corridor.
Once that happens, there is a huge risk of India getting cut off from North East India. Bangladesh will get involved whether they want it or not.
So besides all the usual hotspots, we need to be protecting Doklam tri-junction viciously.
 

Shashank Nayak

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Unlikely. Without naval action, there shall be no war.
Furthermore, the precursor to war is a breakdown in diplomatic relationships, the closing of embassies, the return of ambassadors. None of this is happening, none of the above seem likely to happen.
War between two nations is a formal process, there are rules and conventions which have to be followed before two nations can declare themselves to be in a state of war.
As of today, only skirmish is possible.

War will only be possible when at the very least we have naval blockade or an Ultimatum.

From Wikipedia

International law
The Hague Convention relative to the Opening of Hostilities of 18 October 1907, provides as follows:




As reasons for a declaration of war are necessarily in the nature of an ultimatum, the ultimatum may now be regarded as an indispensable formality precedent to the outbreak of hostilities.

Another Hague convention of the same date respecting the limitation of the employment of force for the recovery of contract debts provides as follows:




This undertaking, however, is not applicable when the debtor state refuses or neglects to reply to an offer of arbitration or, "after accepting the offer, renders the settlement of the compromis impossible, or, after the arbitration, fails to comply with the award."

Under this convention, in the cases to which it relates, the alternative of the ultimatum is ipso facto arbitration, and it is only when the conditions of the convention have been set at naught that other measures may be employed.[2]
Germany under Hitler invaded soviet union without a declaration of war.. Strong Nations follow rules only when it suits them.
 

Cheran

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Hope we don't get fooled by the Russians. Remember the reports of Russia saying that the Chinese buildup is just an exercise.
Also Has PM thanked Taiwan president for birthday wishes? If not, it will be a big let down & means that we still have not exorcised the ghost of 10 foot chinaman.
 

Kumata

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Unlikely. Without naval action, there shall be no war.
Furthermore, the precursor to war is a breakdown in diplomatic relationships, the closing of embassies, the return of ambassadors. None of this is happening, none of the above seem likely to happen.
War between two nations is a formal process, there are rules and conventions which have to be followed before two nations can declare themselves to be in a state of war.
As of today, only skirmish is possible.

War will only be possible when at the very least we have naval blockade or an Ultimatum.

From Wikipedia

International law
The Hague Convention relative to the Opening of Hostilities of 18 October 1907, provides as follows:




As reasons for a declaration of war are necessarily in the nature of an ultimatum, the ultimatum may now be regarded as an indispensable formality precedent to the outbreak of hostilities.

Another Hague convention of the same date respecting the limitation of the employment of force for the recovery of contract debts provides as follows:




This undertaking, however, is not applicable when the debtor state refuses or neglects to reply to an offer of arbitration or, "after accepting the offer, renders the settlement of the compromis impossible, or, after the arbitration, fails to comply with the award."

Under this convention, in the cases to which it relates, the alternative of the ultimatum is ipso facto arbitration, and it is only when the conditions of the convention have been set at naught that other measures may be employed.[2]
Spikey Darling,

Hague conventions and treaties are meant for law abiding countries... not rogue CCP .. when will we understand and stop quoting these treaties...
 

Indrajit

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Japan is the natural ally of India. They never attacked india during WW2. Infact they proposed to Gandhi of aligning together to kick British out of the subcontinent. That would have been ideal, no Pakistan, no Bangladesh, no Lanka. Greater India would have been a reality today..... Dream is still on
I'm afraid that's wrong. The Jaoanese did attack India and suffered their worst land defeats at Imphal and Kohima. They also attacked the Andamans and were ill disposed to Indians and treated them harshly.

Old stories now but history is what it is.


 

Indrajit

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Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't it China study group that was a few months ago advocating to leave china alone talking about how we not miss them off since they are strong and shit and we might fall in their trap.
CSG is part of the government and involves military, intelligence and top leadership of home and defence ministries . It's not some random think tank.
 

AmitG

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Hope we don't get fooled by the Russians. Remember the reports of Russia saying that the Chinese buildup is just an exercise.
Also Has PM thanked Taiwan president for birthday wishes? If not, it will be a big let down & means that we still have not exorcised the ghost of 10 foot chinaman.
Unfortunately I think we are going to get played by the Chinese through the Russians. We are going to accept terms which are not favourable to us. It will be put out as gains in the Chushul area which would be minor while we let the Chinese occupy advantageous positions all along the border which they have encroached on. Don’t read too much into the Chinese are on the back foot narrative. The Chinese are devious and I don’t see them giving in . India needs to stand firm and push for status quo ante and nothing less. All this behind the scene diplomacy with the Russians is scary. The Russians are firmly in the Chinese camp whether they like it or not. We will get bitten bad if we depend on the Russians.
 

Cheetah007

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I'm afraid that's wrong. The Jaoanese did attack India and suffered their worst land defeats at Imphal and Kohima. They also attacked the Andamans and were ill disposed to Indians and treated them harshly.

Old stories now but history is what it is.


British were fighting the Japanese. India was under British rule at that time. The British utilized their Bavy during that battle
 

Cheetah007

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Unfortunately I think we are going to get played by the Chinese through the Russians. We are going to accept terms which are not favourable to us. It will be put out as gains in the Chushul area which would be minor while we let the Chinese occupy advantageous positions all along the border which they have encroached on. Don’t read too much into the Chinese are on the back foot narrative. The Chinese are devious and I don’t see them giving in . India needs to stand firm and push for status quo ante and nothing less. All this behind the scene diplomacy with the Russians is scary. The Russians are firmly in the Chinese camp whether they like it or not. We will get bitten bad if we depend on the Russians.
I disagree with you, Russia is not a puppet state of China. They are genetically anglosaxons. Russians will squeeze both sides. They will sell weapons to both nations. At the end, its bussiness for them
 

Bhadra

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Looks like students from China study group are serious about their studies.. Below quote from the TOI article:

“There has been some delay in the corps commander-level talk because China was not reverting with an exact date. But it will take place now. India will continue to press for disengagement from the friction points as the starting point, followed by de-escalation and de-induction of troops,” a senior official said ..

So, i think because India is insisting on disengagement first, the chinese are corneres and are not reverting back on dates for chai biscoot...

What is significant about this CSG Meeting :

* I am reading that two Cabinet Ministers joined and were present for this meeting. Well, folks that is very significant. That signifies that "Political Leadership" is there to decide on issues then and there. That also means the final decision will have a political orientation rather than MEA or Military orientation.

* Not only Two Cabinet Ministers but The NSA and CDS were there. That guarantees inputs of the highest levels would go into decision making.

* Such a setup means the bureaucratic muddling especially by our soft MEA Babus has fewer Chances to gain upper hand.
* Such steps shorten the communication channels and a nasty Babu has lesser chances of playing with commas, ifs, and buts.
* The environment will also see the stiff necks of the Generals are eased out and they would fall in the line of the political decision in a reasonable fashion.

The very aim of constituting CSG might have been noble and a lesson learned from the muddle created by Nehru Lankies like BN Malik and Desai and push China into collegiate and collective broad-based decision making. Well-meaning people like Mr RK Narayana were its architect. However, it could never come out of the shadow of China loving MEA influence due to its functional paradigms.

The level of participation in the present CSG shows the seriousness of the present govt on the issue as also the seriousness of bureaucratic and political leadership to hold the hands of the Generals in all possible manner.

Since the meeting was convened on the issue of Corps Commander level talks, I wish it has been firmly conveyed to our Corps commander that Kailash ranges in our part of LAC and not subject to any negotiation. It is the future... we got centuries and centuries ahead of us to spend many summers and winters there on our land with honor and pride..
 

Indrajit

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. That would have been ideal, no Pakistan, no Bangladesh, no Lanka. Greater India would have been a reality today..... Dream is still on
Never understood this line of thinking. It would have meant an Muslim League strerngth that was massive and from what our experience has taught us with the present level of population, almost an complete surrender to the political aims of ML. Riots would have been common place and there would be zero chance for parties like the BJP to be remotely as successful as now.

As nightmarish as it can get. Jinnah , whom many in India despise did us a great favour and imo, he deserves to be seen as much as Gandhi, as a father of the Indian state. Without his intervention, we would have been destroyed as a country. It was the much reviled Nehru who refused Jinnah's offer to remain as an union giving Muslims disproportionate and equal representation and which also had the clause to allow for areas to secede from the union after 10 years.
 

AmitG

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I disagree with you, Russia is not a puppet state of China. They are genetically anglosaxons. Russians will squeeze both sides. They will sell weapons to both nations. At the end, its bussiness for them
Sure they are not a puppet of China but right now they are in a position where they need the Chinese more than they need India. They will milk India for arms purchases as India is in their stranglehold as far as military equipment is concerned. They have other geopolitical objectives with the Chinese. They may not like it but the fact remains that the Russians are stuck with the Chinese at the moment.
 

Sanglamorre

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Russian mediation is never good. They already tricked us once by saying China was just doing exercises.

So the Moscow Pact is real. GoI really did make up with the Chinese.
 

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