as the case were to be, time has shown india has surged ahead mainly because of huge internal consumption as a percentage of our gdp and this shows the consumption patterns in the country still remain high even with retail and corporate credit taking a beating but this sector is still growing though not as much as it was doing in the past. one can hope the talk of rs10,000 crores influx in the public sector banks will help increase the lending amount in the retail market and the banks do not sit on this cash as they have done in the past one year or so. in favor of china it was argued to death that exports do not contribute as much as a percentage of gdp as was being made out to be and there was a stream of articles saying the same and that too not in such a distant past with all the leading journals, consultancy houses going by the theory but as the facts stand and something i have always believed in, they were to take this beating because of excessive dependence on exports as a factor of their gdp. china and their supporters then took to saying that they were trying to cool down the growth rate from the highs of 11% that it witnessed last fiscal, but their aim was to slow it down to 9-10% but as the economic slump hit the scene they talked about 9%, then when they were severely hit they pulled the figure down to 8%, and the story continued and today they are struggling to maintain the rate higher than 6%, on the contrary india had been written off by putting a figure of 4% growth rate for the present fiscal which today stands revised at around 6-7% and some even go on to say we could do over 7%, just these predictions for the two countries tell a story of their own. look at a very interesting point daredevil made the other day, india put in around 60,000crores(12.5b usd) into the economy on the contrary china announced a total package of 585b usd and still india clocked 5.8% to prc's 6.1%, another set of figures that tell a story of their own, adding to this india grew to 5.8% from 5.3% just a quarter before compared to prc hitting downwards to 6.1% from 6.8% just a quarter before. look at the number of layoffs in the two countries and you will find another story there, look at the number of factories closed in the two countries and the story telling continues. these figures would have by now put to rest the argument that prc is not as much dependent on exports and that their economy will not get effected by the economic downturn as was being claimed all this time.
will india beat prc or wont is something i do not intend to get into because many times in the past such stuff has been written and the india has not done the same till date, and it is best left for tomorrow to give us the answers, and as it is i do not have much faith in all these experts who are generally experts for just name sake. my aim was to show what has happened and few of the tall claims of prc really never held ground.
