Taiwanese isn't that stupid: they may have a chance to win in a conventional war with the aid of Americans, in a nuclear war they are doomed.
It is good to hear from you. Will apologize for the long reply but it is a fun topic and i have talked this with many chinese people and it is always different responses by them. never ever a simple reply. sometimes they spit out their beers (on to the side of the table - out of courtesy) and say forget it lets talk about democracy in PRC because it is easier.
I am also not talking and saying about PRC nuclear doctrine and also legal and status and not even the ease and method at which it has got its status and also the status of PRC before 1990s which can be a funny discussion.
What i am talking about is Taiwan nuclear and legal and status according to international law and customs.
It is simple:
1) Make Taiwan be exactly the same to PRC under one china principle. A nuclear weapon state.
if not:
2) Make Taiwan to be sovereign nation recognized by everyone. But that opens up question about Taiwan NPT and Nuclear status and since it is open to question they can test and become a nuclear weapon state. If someone says they have already signed NPT -> but under what -> nuclear weapon state?? Lets say they have not signed and they ought to sign but sign under what.
Here comes the sweetened dessert will PRC accept Taiwan to be independent state if Taiwan will declare them to be non-nuclear weapon state -> goes against One-China principle you see KMT and Taiwan how will they control Mainland if they are non-nuclear weapon independent state. It is a good calculation to get Taiwan to be independent by PRC if they in return declare non-nuclear weapon state. But what about guarantee PRC will not use nuclear weapon against Taiwan (like Deng Xia Ping would spit it out in the pan). What about One Country Two Nuclear Weapon Areas.
if not:
3) That is where the "unrecognised state abiding by the treaty" comes from. A way of saying f%^& the international and legal and customs. You know abiding by the treaty to be a nuclear weapon state - non-nuclear weapon state but what!! You know where Japan and Australia says they will not provide and support nuclear technology and supply to anyone outside the CTBT and NPT but with Taiwan F^&* that. You know keep India waiting because it does it properly. You know supply Taiwan because Japan , Australia and USA want to treat PRC with respect.
Even Pakistan (by following India) does not have such complications like PRC, Taiwan and PRC (China) and One-China principle. You do know it is derogatory if someone say Pakistan is better. Pakistan supplied blueprints to Nuclear plant to PRC but who cares.
Now in addition to the above three choices we also add in other terms and such different terms for China like the below:
- PRC
- PRC (China)
- Taiwan (China)
- Taiwan
- None of Above China (USA)
- None of above (others)
- None of the above
Nuclear status in each of the above please!!
And ironically the fact is if Taiwan and KMT loose hope and see less chance of eventually ruling and controlling the mainland the more they will consider developing a strong(er) deterrent. Because simply the hope that KMT and people of the values and beliefs rules from Taiwan (rule of law and democracy) and control mainland is the reason why Taiwan is not too adventurous on its nuclear status. But it does not signify that they cannot be.
(what nuclear status is the Ties they are wearing)
Has Taiwan made a effort to develop nuclear weapons. like you said the USA had "disabled" a previous effort. Did Taiwan sign non-nuclear pact thereafter like a sovereign nation like South Africa. Is it like a on and off switch. And afterwards has USA stationed nuclear weapons in Taiwan. The significance of that is that USA has and is providing Taiwan nuclear umbrella but again under what agreement. Why would Taiwan give up the Nuclear weapons status that easily. Can you have nuclear weapons stationed in your territory outside NPT and CTBT and even NSG. Some difficult legal questions.
The one-china principle is "hope" that one side will eventually rule the other. It plain and simple. Take that away from table it is different ball game all together. Send missiles over Taiwan the USA will come by mandatory legislation. But threaten Taiwan with nuclear weapons ...
Is it PRC will declare that nuclear weapon will not be used against Taiwan. That would not be stupid.
You talk about Pakistan sending mortars accross the border with India. Why not do some between Taiwan and PRC to strengthen the trust.
But you say Taiwan has chance they will win conventionally against PRC. Also there is USA. Is it PRC will not use nuclear weapons against Taiwan if no one else does (no first use policy). Is it PRC will only use nuclear weapons if USA is defending Taiwan.
What is the position of nuclear weapons use on Taiwan by PRC (brotherly blood joining and no one will break them apart). Will PRC kill and destroy their brothers.
One does not want to invade a place where they nuke it right !!
Now the international community was given a wonderful taste and flavor by PRC on international and legal rules by way of North Korea nuclear testing. Was it because of the Taiwan nuclear question that PRC made such a move. I would like to see your analysis on that. Why did PRC allow and support North Korea testing nuclear weapons (some say it was a PRC neutron test).
On top of North Korea did anyone also say Pakistan ...
You see both Pakistan and North Korea does not have strong chance to win in a conventional setting against india and others and also in nuclear war they are doomed. YET they apparently have nuclear weapon. They further share a land border and Taiwan and PRC does not (if we do not consider the Kinmen and Matsu). Is it PRC supports such proxy and buffer states when it is only in their favor and when a state that has been threatened with "unification" by force has the reason for nuclear weapon capability it is considered wise they do not ... is it nuclear weapon provides stability of existence to weakened areas. Is it Taiwan feels confident of their military support from USA. Is it keeping the same relationship with PRC suits them and sensing PRC will change and not Taiwan. Why Taiwan not declaring itself nuclear weapon state !! Is it not insulting to PRC that Taiwan does not want to have its own nuclear weapons. You use the words they are not "stupid".
When was PRC recongised to be a nuclear weapon state. please mention the dates the NPT was signed and ratified by PRC. Has Taiwan signed NPT and how is Taiwan supplied Uranium from Australia and tech from Japan and even USA and others. And what about One China Principle. Forget that India supplied some heavy water to USA can we do that to Taiwan ... what will PRC say ?? please respect One-China principle ... talking like Pakistan.
Some might say it is better to disable one china principle because of the absurdity and complications it brings to world order and stability. There is a area of chinese people that is outside the ambit of international laws and customs and is clearly in contradiction to making and getting others to do the same. The solution is to either make Taiwan exactly the same to PRC (nuclear weapon state) if not make Taiwan a independent sovereign state. And in both at this current moment they hold true. 20+ countries hold Taiwan to be independent sovereign state and also majority consider one china principle. USA voted against the resolution on one china principle what does that mean.
The funny thing is USA are really sticky and careful on rules and procedures. And PRC is sticky and careful on its UNSC and NPT status (they got from Taiwan). Getting PRC to get a new UNSC status and NPT?? Oh no no no no no no please.
Does Taiwan have military weapon systems that can carry nuclear weapons. How far can Taiwan military systems including missiles and jets go. For example shanghai free trade zone is that reachable (might be better to go after more valuable targets)
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I am only being sarcastic and please do not take it too seriously and it is credit to Chinese people and PRC and Taiwan that they are managing their relationship in a cordial manner and having the status qua where everything remains the same today. That is today and i appreciate the sense and pragmatism that it brings. But there is a saying when 1 Chinese person handles a problem it is good. When 2 and more do it becomes complicated.
When PRC plays and bend international laws into grey areas they must not complain if Taiwan is also doing that also. And they are doing it with intent and also purpose.