There is a lot of potential in the Indo-ASEAN relations. But the biggest impediment is the slow speed of planning things on our side. A lot of things are pending from our side vis-a-vis trade commitments with the region. Consequently, these countries look to China or the US or its Asian outposts.
What's the bet that we are going to bid for this..
Wow, that will be best dream for Chinese to come true: the opposite provides excuse for them.ASEAN countries do not have the infinite patience that we have towards our enemies. If they end up sinking a few PLA Coast Guard patrol boats and harassing their fishermen, this could be an interesting scenario for us.
There was never really any international pressure; at least, not in a way that would impact China.Wow, that will be best dream for Chinese to come true: the opposite provides excuse for them.
Sinking one or two Chinese boats are ease, the problem is how to handle the following PLAN combat group.
If ASEAN countries fire the first shot to escalate the conflict is the best thing that happens to the Chinese:
1. Minimize the international pressure;
2. Divide the ASEAN countries, some of the ASEAN countries don't have disputes with China in SCS;
Unfortunately, ASEAN countries are not as stupid as you think.
And they have been doing this kind of things to each other in the same time.The Chinese Coast Guard has been pushing, attacking and intimidating the Philippine, Indonesian and Malaysian vessels in the region, substantiated by clear videos taken from the vessels themselves.
But you keep repeating ASEAN, ASEAN and ASEAN.They are not stupid but they are also not docile and ineffective. If this translates into a war, especially with the Philippines, it won't be ASEAN that would step in. ASEAN is not a military alliance, so the retaliating party would expect the entire bloc to not cover for them.
Why does PLAN need to invade. They can just wipe out the whole Philipine navy as retaliation.If Manila fires the retaliating shot against the attacks on their fishermen or other civilian vessels, it will likely be the US that will step in if PLAN invades.
If there is a thing for certain in the history, it is how easily people can forget.The 9-dash line visibly violates the territorial waters of other countries and the latest round of harassment (using water cannons against the Philippine vessels) is not going to be forgotten.