If Pakistan Splinters - Bharat Verma

bennedose

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If Pakistan splinters"¦ » Indian Defence Review
Indian Defence Review



By Bharat Verma
Issue Net Edition | Date : 02 Nov , 2013


If Pakistan splinters, it will hit the biggest stakeholder and benefactor China. In order to safeguard its strategic interests, Beijing therefore will make every endeavor to prevent the breakup of Pakistan, even to the extent of military intervention in support of the Pakistan Army.

"¦the migrant Muslims in West Asia (Middle East) while introducing themselves take pains to assert that they are Muslims from India and not Pakistan.

The Chinese will suffer major setback, if dysfunctional Pakistan splinters in the near future.

Many Malaysian Muslims will hasten to tell you that their country should not be compared to Pakistan. Or the migrant Muslims in West Asia (Middle East) while introducing themselves take pains to assert that they are Muslims from India and not Pakistan.

The Union of India's consolidation and integration as a nation will get a new fillip, as the distraction created by Pakistan in the name of religion is eliminated.

Serious contradictions within Pakistan have pushed it in the pit of despair from where; it is almost impossible to recover. It is reported that many young Pakistanis out of sheer frustration are repudiating Islam and converting to other religions.

Possibly, majority of the Pakistan's dominant community, Punjabi Sunni Muslims living in their isolated world of self-destruction do not realize the damage they are doing to Islam.

The likely breakup of Pakistan in the near future will stall expanding Chinese footprints.

Pakistan is appears to be hurtling towards self-destruction.

Beijing treats Pakistan as an extension of its war machine and a surrogate colony. The likely breakup of Pakistan in the near future will stall expanding Chinese footprints.

Impaired Pakistan is a cause of deep worry for Beijing, since Islamabad's capability to tie-down India by launching terrorist attacks will also suffer.

If Pakistan splinters, there will be enormous gains for India.

PoK will revert back to the Indian fold and peace will prevail. This is the singular reason for Chinese to move their troops into PoK. The strategy is two-fold. First, occupy or gain influence over as much occupied Indian Territory as possible, incase Pakistan breaks up.

Second, to keep up the pressure on Indian borders since Pakistan is no position to do the same, given its present internal disarray. Further, China does not want India to be emboldened to mount an attack on Pakistan, which is already gasping for oxygen.

Anti-India rabble rousing by ISI inspired elements in Bangladesh against India will no longer be possible.

With the break-up of Pakistan, ISI activities like export of fake Indian currency and infiltration of terrorists through Nepal will cease. Anti-India rabble rousing by ISI inspired elements in Bangladesh against India will no longer be possible.

American attempts to unhook Pakistan from China will continue to fail despite the dangling of carrot of modern weapons and technology as Islamabad's strategic dependency on Beijing is now irreversible.

The Union of India's consolidation and integration as a nation will get a new fillip, as the distraction created by Pakistan in the name of religion is eliminated.

India then will be able to concentrate on the principal threat posed by China.

Fragmented Pakistan will lesson the heavy financial burden placed on India's economy with drastic reduction in the security apparatus. This will enable young India to make rapid economic strides that can outpace ageing China in a short span of time.

Similarly, colossal gains accrue to the West, if Pakistan splinters.

The West led by America is losing the plot in Afghanistan because the problem is the Pakistan Army and its Irregular Forces led by General Kayani.

The West led by America is losing the plot in Afghanistan because the problem is the Pakistan Army and its Irregular Forces led by General Kayani. Washington was forced to admit recently this worst kept secret, when its supply routes to Afghanistan were snapped by GHQ Rawalpindi and NATO convoys carrying fuel to Afghanistan were conveniently torched by the ISI controlled Ghost Army of Jihad with impunity.

American attempts to unhook Pakistan from China will continue to fail despite the dangling of carrot of modern weapons and technology as Islamabad's strategic dependency on Beijing is now irreversible.

The 'real estate' of Pakistan was created so that the West could monitor and manipulate the former Soviet Union, China and India.

However, if Pakistan falls apart, Sind which has very strong democratic yearning is certain to charter its own independent path but in consonance with Indian value system.

Independent Baluchistan with its rich resources will be definitely against the Chinese, who in conjunction with Islamabad are exploiting its resources.

Independent Baluchistan with its rich resources will be definitely against the Chinese, who in conjunction with Islamabad are exploiting its resources. Denial of Gawdar port will preclude Chinese navy from the warm waters of Indian Ocean and direct access to West Asia.

Afghanistan will gradually witness unhindered growth of democracy; the spoilers Pakistan Army with ISI would have disappeared.

Therefore, democracies will find many friendly places to operate from and access the resources of Central Asia to the mutual benefit of all players.

The biggest gain for the democracies will be that China's expanding authoritarian influence will be sharply curtailed. Also the Jihad fervor being orchestrated in this part of the world by the Punjabi Sunnis will die a natural death due to fatigue and lack of resources.

The spread of two authoritarian streams, Chinese communism and the Islamic fundamentalism, in combination or otherwise, threaten the survival of democracies in Asia.

With independent Sind and Baluchistan, the Chinese supply lines from Gawdar would not be possible.

If Pakistan splinters, one of the threats will be substantially neutralized.

This in turn will make Central Asia a safer place where Pakistan aims to attain strategic depth with the help of Islamic fundamentalists.

If Pakistan splinters, Sinkiang in China will face renewed instability and the Chinese flank in occupied Tibet will come under severe pressure.

If Pakistan splinters, Sinkiang in China will face renewed instability and the Chinese flank in occupied Tibet will come under severe pressure.

With independent Sind and Baluchistan, the Chinese supply lines from Gawdar would not be possible. This will force China to revert to 'peaceful rise' instead of laying claim on territory or islands of other nations.

The power of the Shias will increase, thus creating a balance with some of the Sunni sects that are mainly responsible for terrorist acts worldwide. Two successive British Prime Ministers have stated Pakistan accounts for 75 percent of all such acts.

If Pakistan splinters, this percentage will drop to abysmal levels.

Most often remarks on Pakistan are prefaced by, " Just like you Indians cannot live with Pakistan"¦"

The truth therefore is that "Pakistan cannot live with India." The converse is absolutely preposterous.

This premise is false. An average Indian can live with Pakistan, as long as Islamabad does not interfere in internal affairs or connive against India. It is irrelevant whether India dialogues, trades or maintains diplomatic relationship with Pakistan; growth of the Indian economy or the growing status of India is not even remotely connected with failure or success of Islamabad. The 'Pakistan Story' failed because of the inherent flaws in the values professed and not because of "Kashmir"! The "Indian Story " shows success because of its belief in secular democratic values.

The truth therefore is that "Pakistan cannot live with India." The converse is absolutely preposterous.

If Pakistan splinters, it will hit the biggest stakeholder and benefactor China. In order to safeguard its strategic interests, Beijing therefore will make every endeavor to prevent the breakup of Pakistan, even to the extent of military intervention in support of the Pakistan Army.

If Pakistan splinters, forces led by Barak Obama will win. On the contrary, if China is successful in its intervention, authoritarian regimes will hold sway in Asia.

Who wins the great game in Asia, will depend on the finesse with which the cards are dealt by the contending sides.
 

Free Karma

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Thsi reads like a highly optimistic wishlist, without looking at all the repercussions. First off if Pakistan does breakup, there will be a giant power vaccum, which willl either have to be babysat through by foreign forces (could be anyone with invested interests.), or........watch it all fall into the only other power that could possibly fill the vaccum, more islamic power, but this time unchecked, it would slide so fast into radical ideology. That is never good news, for anyone involved, around the area(especially because Pakistan sees India as a source of all it's problems) or countries thousands of miles away.

It would also be very hard for other nations to babysit them, as there is already massive pressure on all these countries to get their economies back on track, and cannot afford a long drawn out corrosive battle with terrorists in their own turf or in the case of china, not increase anti chinese setiments, as they have some problems with their own islamic populations. Barrack obama doesnt win if pakistan splinters, he's probably got a lot more problems on his hand in a region he doesnt fully understand. Plus they also have nukes, and Pakistan isnt exactly known to be responsible, so you cant count on them to destroy these nukes before they go down,

It would be in the best interests, atleast temporarily if Pakistan holds together somehow, with some semblence of control even though it may appear very thin.
 

drkrn

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Day dreaming

Whether pak disintegrtaes or not we should be aiming to get administration of POK region back in our hand
except for lost pride pok can not bring anything to india,but disintegration of pakistan does surely bring a lot to india.
first a de-nuclearized enemy.
second no terror hubs.
third power projection
fourth china will make a back step atlest two... maybe.....
 

anoop_mig25

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except for lost pride pok can not bring anything to india,but disintegration of pakistan does surely bring a lot to india.
first a de-nuclearized enemy.
second no terror hubs.
third power projection
fourth china will make a back step atlest two... maybe.....
pride is not the reason Looks maps PoK is gateway to central asia -russia .

What do u think how pak sells itself in world.

Visit there any forum and u will see how they pride themself with as "setting on gateway to central asia and south/east asia"
 

bennedose

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Pakistan selling PoK as gateway of the world to Central Asia is like me selling myself as stud boy to satisfy the lust of all Bollywood and Hollywood actresses. Neither has ever worked in the past and neither will ever work in future. It is simply a fantasy - a wank job.

Bharat Verma makes some interesting points - and wrong or right he must be given credit for thinking out of the box rather than the stupid line taken by the incumbent GoI that Pakistan's intergrity is important to us. It is not.

If you look at the borders of Pakistan s marked on Pakistani maps you will find that 40% of the area marked is not under any central Pakistani control, neither army nor (ha ha) "civilian government". The US has tried desperately to keep this false map alive, and so has China. The US is gradually giving up.
 
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Decklander

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Pakistan selling PoK as gateway of the world to Central Asia is like me selling myself as stud boy to satisfy the lust of all Bollywood and Hollywood actresses. Neither has ever worked in the past and neither will ever work in future. It is simply a fantasy - a wank job.

Bharat Verma makes some interesting points - and wrong or right he must be given credit for thinking out of the box rather than the stupid line taken by the incumbent GoI that Pakistan's intergrity is important to us. It is not.

If you look at the borders of Pakistan s marked on Pakistani maps you will find that 40% of the area marked is not under any central Pakistani control, neither army nor (ha ha) "civilian government". The US has tried desperately to keep this false map alive, and so has China. The US is gradually giving up.
I fully agree with your view and infact it has been my line of argument with many of my coursemates and classmates in services and GOI. pakistan disintegrated is the only solution to all our security problems. Anyone who says that a strong unified pakistan is in India's interest is a bloodyfool IMHO. We must do our best to break away Baluchistan from Pak asap followed by Sindh. The Pakistan which came into existance on 14th Aug 1947 was a state with just Punjab, Sindh and NWFP. They annexed Baluchistan in 1948/49 forcibly.
Once Pakistan is broken up, the balance of power will shift decisively in India's favour against China and China will be much lesser a threat in Asia for us.
 

drkrn

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pride is not the reason Looks maps PoK is gateway to central asia -russia .

What do u think how pak sells itself in world.

Visit there any forum and u will see how they pride themself with as "setting on gateway to central asia and south/east asia"
accepted.i forgot that part....
no doubt its a vital place in terms of connection to energy rich central asia.
 

drkrn

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Pakistan selling PoK as gateway of the world to Central Asia is like me selling myself as stud boy to satisfy the lust of all Bollywood and Hollywood actresses. Neither has ever worked in the past and neither will ever work in future. It is simply a fantasy - a wank job.

Bharat Verma makes some interesting points - and wrong or right he must be given credit for thinking out of the box rather than the stupid line taken by the incumbent GoI that Pakistan's intergrity is important to us. It is not.

If you look at the borders of Pakistan s marked on Pakistani maps you will find that 40% of the area marked is not under any central Pakistani control, neither army nor (ha ha) "civilian government". The US has tried desperately to keep this false map alive, and so has China. The US is gradually giving up.
afaik POK has a parliament of its own.of course under pakistan control
 

drkrn

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I fully agree with your view and infact it has been my line of argument with many of my coursemates and classmates in services and GOI. pakistan disintegrated is the only solution to all our security problems. Anyone who says that a strong unified pakistan is in India's interest is a bloodyfool IMHO. We must do our best to break away Baluchistan from Pak asap followed by Sindh. The Pakistan which came into existance on 14th Aug 1947 was a state with just Punjab, Sindh and NWFP. They annexed Baluchistan in 1948/49 forcibly.
Once Pakistan is broken up, the balance of power will shift decisively in India's favour against China and China will be much lesser a threat in Asia for us.
so balochistan was forcibly annexed into their territory...hmm
another reason good enough for breaking pakistan
 

bennedose

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Let me state my view on that "breaking up" of Pakistan. India is not going to break Pakistan. In my view Pakistan is already broken - but is held together - somewhat like powdered Parle Gluco biscuits that have got crushed and broken inside an intact packet.

Who or what is holding Pakistan together?
Ans: The Pakistan army. By force. And it is not winning.

Who is supporting the Pakistan army?
The US and more desperately China

But supporting the army can only go so far because the Pakistan army has been busy killing civilians in NWFP, Baluchistan and in PoK. PoK is too close to the center (Pakjab) but it is NWFP/FATA and Baluchistan (40% of Pakistan's area) that are not in control of the Paki army.

There is a civil war in Pakistan and it really is popcorn/beer (or chai biskoot, take your pick) for India. But pretending that bad things will happen if Pakistan breaks up is nonsense. Only good things will happen
 

Ray

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Pakistan is critical to China's commercial and strategic interests since it sits in the hub that opens up China to the Arabian Sea and safeguard its exports and imports from Africa and oil from Arabia, in case the Straits of Malacca is not open for natural or military reasons

Pakistan opens up a second route to Central Asia and to Afghanistan and Iran (without going through Central Asia).

By having an access to Iran through a friendly and surrogate Nation to the Persian Gulf, it permits monitoring of US activities in Qatar and the activities of the US Sixth Fleet.

To some extent it can open ways to influence the Straits of Hormuz that is so critical to the Chinese strategic interest in oil imports.

Most importantly, China cannot afford to allow Pakistan to break up or else the little control they have over terrorist coming into Xinjaing from the world over, will get shattered and Xinjiang will force its independence since they are not pacifists in their ways as are the Buddhists of Tibet.

But the sad part for Pakistan is that they are not the Masters of their Fate or Captains of their Soul.

Each Pakistani, each terrorist and each province is law by themselves and each is a self styled and self anointed Khalifa full of misplaced self importance.

It is in the interest of all concerned, the world over, that Pakistan burns they way it is burning now since that will allow the powers to have a handle to twist to keep them kowtowing all the time, allowing some shroud of escape in executing the charade of issuing demarches, feigned anger and things like that!
 
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Yusuf

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I've always held the belief that breaking down of Pak is the only way we can have security on our western borders. PakJab is what it should be reduced to. It means no navy,no access to sea,surrounded by hostile new states who can fight amongst themselves while India can grab some popcorn and enjoy the show. Yes we should get our lands held by them back as they are a key to land access into CAR.
 

Tolaha

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There is a civil war in Pakistan and it really is popcorn/beer (or chai biskoot, take your pick) for India. But pretending that bad things will happen if Pakistan breaks up is nonsense. Only good things will happen
Your opinion @bennedose, on what's better: A weak but united Pakistan that is constantly at war with itself (as it is now) or a Pakistan broken into 3 or 4 nations, who are small but strong and in peace with one another and within(as being relatively homogenous)?

And you have a tasty name! :namaste:
 
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ninja85

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india must not give any refuge to any pakibeggar because they never be trusted but this looks difficult because of the [email protected]%d corrupt congress.
 

bennedose

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Pakistan is critical to China's commercial and strategic interests since it sits in the hub that opens up China to the Arabian Sea and safeguard its exports and imports from Africa and oil from Arabia, in case the Straits of Malacca is not open for natural or military reasons

Pakistan opens up a second route to Central Asia and to Afghanistan and Iran (without going through Central Asia).
Ray I would like to question this oft stated viewpoint. Two points:

1. China relies on Pakistan to provide security for its people and assets in Pakistan, and Pakistan is unable to provide that security inside Pakistan, let alone in Baluchistan. There is no way a secure road or railways system is going to come up from Gwadar to the Kunjerab pass anytime soon. Heck the Pakistanis are unable to maintain a working railway system and will want the Chinese to do that. They are unable to provide security and will probably invite the Chinese to do that. Imagine what China will need to do to secure a 2000 km highway/roadway in Pakistan that Pakistan cannot protect. It would be more fun to see China trying that, but it is not going to happen. There are already good roads from Gwadar heading east towards Karachi and thence to the North but railways will be needed for serious transport of oil.

2. The Himalayas are "young" crumbly mountains prone to earthquakes and avalanches. No one has built working all weather highways or railways in that region. The Karakoram highway was blocked inside Pakistan by an avalanche 3 years ago and it is still blocked. the Pakis have left it to the Chinese to do something about the huge lake that has formed blocking off the current route.

The same China that has built tens of thousands of Km of high speed train tracks in China has been able to do nothing with regard to this Gwadar port and rail link for decades and I don't see it going any further soon. Like many of the other "pearls" in the "string of pearls" this is a mirage. It is still cheaper and faster to ship the oil via sea lanes.

It would be a different matter if Pakistan was stable and secure. Now you know why Pakistan is unstable and insecure. If we give them Kashmir on a plate everything will l be solved in a jiffy. I hope you can believe that. The Americans and Chinese certainly believed that story and pumped Pakistan with money and arms to deal with India while they bought Pakistan's false promises about the cold war and alternate oil links. The Chinese believed the very story about the "alternate link" to the gulf and central Asia that you wrote about. It's our turn to bring out the beer and popcorn.

I can't offer the US or China anything for their naivete, but if anyone here believes the Pakistan story that their instability is because of Kashmir, and that if you help them they will help you get the moon, I would like to offer that person a white domed marble building that I own in Agra. I am selling it real cheap.
 
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bennedose

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Your opinion @bennedose, on what's better: A weak but united Pakistan that is constantly at war with itself (as it is now) or a Pakistan broken into 3 or 4 nations, who are small but strong and in peace with one another and within(as being relatively homogenous)?

And you have a tasty name! :namaste:
LOL!

It is easier for me to have opinions than answer such questions.

This is how I see it Pakistan is already 2 or 3 nations at war with itself. It is being held together by the force of the Pakistan army. If the army becomes weak, Pakistan will split no matter which of the two options I prefer. The Pakistan army has known this for decades. In fact, what Stephen Cohen calls "the Pakistani establishment" - the upholders and definers of "Pakistaniyat" know this very well. Their solution has been to unite Pakistan against India. In their plan - Pakistan==Islam and Pakistan and islam are both under threat from Kafir India and no better examples can be found than the 80,0000,0000,,00000 dead and raped Kashmiris, 2000,0000,00,000000 dead Muslims etc in India. As long as India needs to be fought the Pakistan army must be strong and all fissiparous tendencies in Pakistan must be suppressed.

It was precisely to keep the Pakistan army well armed and well fed that Pakistan offered itself to the US against the Soviets and as a mediator to befriend China. It was for exactly the same reason that Pakistan made unreal promises about Gwadar and a road/rail via 6 km high Himalayas to China. It is also very very likely that the Pakistan army has offered nuclear weapons to the Saudis against Iran in exchange for aid.

But these promises are now unraveling. Pakistan is in a state of civil war. The US and China are still funding the Pakistan armed forces who are using many of those weapons against their own people. But now the Pakistan army is weaker than ever before because of civil war. This internal strife will continue for the foreseeable future.

I believe that the international community has a role here. (Someone please inform the government of India that we too are a part of the international community). If the US, China and other nations keep on funding the Paki armed forces, the internal civil war will drag on. If they stop funding the Pakistan armed forces, Pakistan will split. I think a decision has to be made to split Pakistan. This can happen only if the Pakistani army' is starved of funds and arms. Unfortunately it is the US and China who have to take a call on that. The US has taken a decision that Pakistan's armed forces should remain armed, Pakistan should remain united and to continue to fight the civil war. China too is doing that.

If the US and China choke off aid, the Pakistani army will want to fight one more war with India after dubbing India the aggressor to win more aid. If that happens India needs to be ready to split Pakistan. There could be nuclear war - but we may have to face that as long as we finish off and split Pakistan at the end of that war. Nuclear war will have worldwide repercussions on other states that do not have nukes right now - but that is OT.

If war must be avoided, then pressure has to be put on the Pakistan armed forces (and the "establishment") to allow Pashtuns and Baluchis a degree of self determination. Right now the dominant Pakistani Punjabis and their army officers do not have the smartness it takes to realize the mess they are in. Either way Pakistan is screwed.

China's game will be to try and pin India down using Pakistan, Our game must be aimed at causing China pain and preventing its plans in Pakistan from being completed by supporting Baluichis, Taliban or anyone who will blow up Chinese assets in Pakistan.
 
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Decklander

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Pakistan a very crucial part of Chinese strategy in Central asia and South asia. They play their games against India thru Pakistan. Dismembering Pakistan is very important for India just the way making east Pakistan a separate state was as that cud have drawn us into three pronged war i.e East, North and west. If we dismember Pakistan, SL will automatically fall in line and so will be everyother nation who has borders with us or is harbouring any intentions of playing china against us. That will improve our relations with our neighbours and also make it clear to china that in case of any war, they will be dealing with just India which won't have anyother enemy in this part of the world. This will also go a longway in curbing the influence of china and their design to dominate all countries around its borders.
 

Compersion

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it would be a lot more likely to see PRC and Pakistan play off against one another. i am sure the intellectual india apparatus is only beginning its chinese setup and once it is running (like it is on the western front) the truth will be shared with the chinese.

case in point is: what has pakistan gained from the PRC relationship by playing (difficult and problematic) games against india ... and i am reading that the chinese have done a america on pakistan and have realised that india is worthy and commendable and the pakis relationship and status can be relegated and lowered.

why everyone assume that the chinese are not pragmatic. the chinese will not take any orders and advice from the pakis. the chinese will take gains but not give without anything in return. and the pakis have been the only givers in that relationship. and the biggest item they have given to PRC is the games they play against India.
 

Abhijeet Dey

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If Pakistan is broken into different countries then what will happen to its nuclear arsenal?
 

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