The likelihood of a Sino Indian war is remote since it will have global repercussions. It will not be bilateral.
It is a moot point if any side will use their strategic missiles. It is no secret that China’s attempts at superpower status are not to liking of the US or Russia (does not appreciate China’s growing clout in the CARs) and they would only be seeking opportunities to thwart or retrograde China’s race to superpower status.
The US is driving hard to develop its ‘strategic relationship’ with major players around the Indian Ocean Rim like India as also with countries that border China as was seen in the keen interest the US developed in Nepal. The aim is obvious, in that, China has restricted use of the Indian Ocean, notwithstanding China’s String of Pearls strategy, as also girdle China with pro US, or at least neutral countries.
In addition, these strategic relationships, by having joint exercises etc, it is increasing the threshold for China where she will have to divert much finances to upgrade her weaponry and strategic arsenal at the expense of her more important issues such as development of the rural sector since there is already signs of unrest in the rural areas because of the economic disparity. There is also disquiet over the economic imbalance between the coastal areas and the interior. In addition, the ethnic issues in Tibet and Xinjiang are serious issues for China in its path to Han-ise these areas. Hence, it is to US’ interest to keep the economic and ethnic cauldron boiling over and divert finances and energy to these non productive impediments to her quest for superpower status. It is the same tactics that brought the USSR down. Up the ante and enter into an economic and weapon race, create poverty and unrest thus, and let the adversary collapse. It is true that the US and the world is in a recession, but the advantage the US has is that it controls the world economy as also the western countries are united in their strategic pursuits. Thus, the western world vs China.
Given these issues, China is shrewd enough to realise war with anyone is not in her interest. Likewise, India is keen to modernise and is attempting to minimise the gap in social and economic wellbeing of its population. Therefore, India, too, will have going to war as its last priority.
However, should war come, no strategic missiles will be used for reasons mentioned earlier. I would prefer not to get into the details for obvious reasons. At best, the war will be confined to the border areas. I would even discount this, since a border war is of no advantage in strategic terms and so it would be a waste in lives and would also affect the modernisation that both countries are aiming at, since finances will be drained in such a fruitless war.
In such a war, China will be more disadvantaged than India, since access to the Indian Ocean will be blocked and China survives on oil. China is aware of this disadvantage and to offset this, they are building a overland pipeline from Gwadar in Pakistan along the KKH into Xinjiang and to hinterland China. That apart, China has a pipeline in the works direct from the oilfields of CAR to Xinjiang and into China. China is actively wooing the Arab oil producing nations so that the access to Gulf oil is guaranteed through the Gwadar port and the overland pipeline from there. However, should a war start, it is a moot point if the US influence on the Arab nations will not work.
In such a war, Pakistan will play a key role for China. From the Chinese standpoint, it would assist her war effort if India is negated from switching a part of her western forces to the East and into Ladakh. The role Pakistan will have to play so that India’s western forces are tied down. Economically, Pakistan is, however, in no position to sustain such a war since her economy is staying afloat on IMF and WB money. If Pakistan does enter this war, she will keel over economically and there will be total unrest amongst the poorer sections of society.
However, there is a catch here in Pakistan’s entering a war to support China. Should Pakistan attack India in conjunction with China, the US will walk into NWFP on some pretext or the other and it could lead to cessation by the Pathans as also the Balochis (the Balochis are more active in their demand for autonomy and even independence. Such a situation will be ideal for the US since it is to US’ advantage to ‘liberate’ Balochistan so as to pressurise Iran from both flanks (Iraq and Balochistan). It will also ensure that the Chinese presence in Gwadar is removed and thereby nullifying the Chinese advantage of using it to ‘listen’ into the electronic and other activities of the US forces in the Gulf.
With all these problems Pakistan is having with the Taliban, there is unrest in complete Pakistan. The Jiyo Sindh movement, the Balwaristan movement can also queer the pitch and there will be total and uncontrollable havoc. The hatred towards the Punjabis in Pakistan by all other communities is legend.
Likewise, a war with India, would also put China in a spot since it would give the Tibetan and Uighur separatists a field day!!
Therefore, a war by China on India is a very remote possibility in my opinion.
In the event it does happen, India is capable of taking on a two front war.