If India has to go for a two fronts war against China and Pakistan...

[ace009]

To all the members here, my opinion is that any future war between India and China would not be a mere Border Skirmish. It would be a much larger war, with definite goals and strategic objectives, with multiple fronts.
The primary proximal objective of both sides will be to cripple the war engine of the other side and make them seek truce, with terms favorable to the stronger opponent. Remove army/ AF/ naval bases, stop mining operations or dam building projects, refrain from building roads/ bridges etc. A secondary objective will be to get trade concessions, access ports, military posts in favorable positions. The remote objective will be power projection to the world at large, establishing a place in the global "Pecking order" as a military force and silencing any internal threats for the time being.

Now remember, land armies are very good for invading accessible neighbors and holding (both offense and defense). Air forces are excellent for shock and awe (and defense too), but naval power is the absolute essential for successful force projection. Without a blue water navy no country can achieve force projection, which is essential for a superpower status. China definitely aspires for a superpower status. Although at this moment China might not have a blue water navy, they are working hard to get one. If nothing else, by 2025 (as my scenario mentions) they will have a couple of mini-fleets which are "gray water" navy, i.e. able to operate from friendly foreign naval bases. Any chance of hostilities with India, they would like to send an offensive mini-fleet to their strategic partner, i.e. Pakistan. This is important for two reasons - 1. To clear the Malaya straits before actual shots are fired and the IN can block that route, 2. To secure the resource routes of ME along the IOR (Indian Ocean Region).
A "war" between India and China is very very unlikely - say a 2-3% chance, however, if it comes to that, it will be fought along multiple fronts with land, air and naval forces. Tactical forces (cruise missiles and conventional warhead carrying ballistic missiles) will be used a lot by both sides, but strategic forces will be involved only as a last resort. This is because, unleashing strategic weaponry may escalate the war, bringing other powers into play - i.e. Japan/ S Korea/ Israel taking India's side, N Korea/ Arab countries taking China/ Pakistan's side. Sooner or later then EU, Russia and USA will get involved and take sides in this conflict.

 

[neo29]

The day we get the M777 howitzers positioned on the eastern border, we may end up seeing China concerned. I dont know what type of SAM installation's we have on the eastern border, if someone can throw some light on it.

 

[Anshu Attri]

Revealed: China building 14 mega projects in PoK-News-Videos-The Times of India


Revealed: China building 14 mega projects in PoK

 

[neo29]

Revealed: China building 14 mega projects in PoK-News-Videos-The Times of India


Revealed: China building 14 mega projects in PoK

I think India should use this. They should start selling arms and have good trade relations with Taiwan's. If China protests then show then point fingers at their projects in PoK.

 

[SHASH2K2]

The day we get the M777 howitzers positioned on the eastern border, we may end up seeing China concerned. I dont know what type of SAM installation's we have on the eastern border, if someone can throw some light on it.

New batteries of Akash will be deployed in North eastern states to protect Vital Installations.

 

[SHASH2K2]

I think India should use this. They should start selling arms and have good trade relations with Taiwan's. If China protests then show then point fingers at their projects in PoK.

Honestly speaking we are not in position to sell arms to Taiwan. Tawan is much better economically and has uncle SAM for arms. we should start to improve our diplomatic relationship with them and that itself will drive china mad.

 

[neo29]

Honestly speaking we are not in position to sell arms to Taiwan. Tawan is much better economically and has uncle SAM for arms. we should start to improve our diplomatic relationship with them and that itself will drive china mad.

They cant sell them everything can they. Besides Taiwan does not bother to ask us coz we never bothered to maintain a high level of diplomacy. If we offer they will surely comply.

But as u say its true that we dont have much arms to sell as we ourselves are huge importers. But we do have tanks, LCH, Dhurv, Brahmos etc to offer.

 

[SHASH2K2]

They cant sell them everything can they. Besides Taiwan does not bother to ask us coz we never bothered to maintain a high level of diplomacy. If we offer they will surely comply.

But as u say its true that we dont have much arms to sell as we ourselves are huge importers. But we do have tanks, LCH, Dhurv, Brahmos etc to offer.

Thats why I am saying that rather than offering to sell them we need to work on diplomacy first . Its not like we go and offer them to sell/ gift a weapon. moreover it will take at least few years before we have something to sell to them . We should use that period to build good relationship with them.

 

[Yusuf]

Quite often we hear of India should sell arms to Taiwan these days on the forum. Such a line just shows of absolute no understanding of the history as well as realities of the time. I think the issue of selling arms to taiwan has been made in many other threads and its pretty much a waste of time.

 

[natarajan]

Is it possible for us to get one island of maldieves and establish a naval base like usa deigo garcia

 

[The Messiah]

Is it possible for us to get one island of maldieves and establish a naval base like usa deigo garcia

Stop dreaming....when we cant take hold of our own land how will we get land which isn't ours be it by force or rent/lease whatever.

 

[SHASH2K2]

Is it possible for us to get one island of maldieves and establish a naval base like usa deigo garcia

Stop dreaming....when we cant take hold of our own land how will we get land which isn't ours be it by force or rent/lease whatever.

He has every right to dream and his dreams are in correct direction. We need a base near maldives and we already have listening post there. Strategic location of maldives is the reason why India and china both are fighting to get a Naval base in that region.
The Chinese conundrum and the Indian response | | | Indian Express

 

[Ray]

Getting a base anywhere in our strategic realm is ideal.

However, one has to see the possibilities.

Maldive is a friendly nation. Its economy is based on tourism. It appears that it does not want to get into a military tussle.

Laccadives should do most sufficiently since it is our territory.

Seychelles and Mauritius are India friendly and because of Diego Garcia and US presence, the US will not allow anyone close to them.

 

[neo29]

India already has some Helicopters and some vessels already stationed in Maldives. Besides a proposal to build a radar station to monitor the sea is to be installed there. We have good influence on Maldives.

 

[SHASH2K2]

India already has some Helicopters and some vessels already stationed in Maldives. Besides a proposal to build a radar station to monitor the sea is to be installed there. We have good influence on Maldives.

Listening post should be ok for us as of now. Diego Garcia will be there to deter Chinese in that region. Strategic location of that region will give very strong control in Indian Ocean so if we are not able to get a full fleged naval base there we should make sure Chinese donot get one . Till now we are doing good in this regard hopefully in future as well.

 

[Ray]

India must be more proactive in Sri Lanka and in Myanmar and extend her sphere of influence to SE Asia and Singapore.

If the Chinese cannot go undeterred East of the Straits of Malacca and at Singapore, then its curtains for the Chinese Navy.

Chinese Navy still is a Brown Water Navy with aspiration for a Blue Water status.

 

[vikramrana_1812]

India third most powerful nation: US report

WASHINGTON: India is listed as the third most powerful country in the world after the US and China and the fourth most powerful bloc after the US, China and the European Union in a new official US report.

The new global power line-up for 2010 also predicted that New Delhi's clout in the world will further rise by 2025, according to "Global Governance 2025" jointly issued by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) of the US and the European Union's Institute for Security Studies (EUISS).

Using the insights of a host of experts from Brazil, Russia, India and China, among others, and fictionalised scenarios, the report illustrates what could happen over the next 25 years in terms of global governance.

In 2010, the US tops the list of powerful countries/regions, accounting for nearly 22 percent of the global power.

The US is followed by China with European Union at 16 percent and India at eight percent. India is followed by Japan, Russia and Brazil with less than five percent each.

According to this international futures model, by 2025 the power of the US, EU, Japan and Russia will decline while that of China, India and Brazil will increase, even though there will be no change in this listing.

By 2025, the US will still be the most powerful country of the world, but it will have a little over 18 percent of the global power.

The US will be closely followed by China with 16 percent, European Union with 14 percent and India with 10 per cent.

"The growing number of issues on the international agenda, and their complexity, is outpacing the ability of international organisations and national governments to cope," the report warns.

This critical turning point includes issues of climate change, ethnic and regional conflicts, new technology, and the managing of natural resources.

The report also highlights the challenges proponents of effective global governance face.

On one hand, rapid globalization, economic and otherwise, has led to an intertwining of domestic politics and international issues and fuelled the need for more cooperation and more effective leadership.

But on the other hand, an increasingly multipolar world, often dominated by non-state actors, has put a snag in progress toward effectual global governance, it said.


Read more: India third most powerful nation: US report - The Times of India India third most powerful nation: US report - The Times of India

 

[ace009]

This is the last part of my analysis - sorry it took me so long. But I was researching the past strategies of IA, PA and PLA ...

 

[ace009]

Section 5

Section 5:
North-Western front (Land and Air battle)
As the NY times have reported based upon possible US millitary intelligence, (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/opinion/27iht-edharrison.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=china Kashmir&st=cse) and the TOI has detailed about Indian concerns, (Chinese troops in PoK: India conveys concern to China - The Times of India), China is building up troops and infrastructure in POK, where Pak Govt have given up de-facto control to China. Although China denied these reports and caliemd that PLA presence was for "flood relief", the argument did not have merit, since the flood was in southern PoK and the PLA was seen in northern PoK (Gilgit/ Baltistan). This is a strategic millitary partnership between Pak and China to do what Pakistan could not do in 4 wars. China has already built three naval bases in Pakistan (Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara) and are building high speed railroads and highways from these naval bases into China's Sinkiang province. There are already 7,000 to 10,000 PLA troops working in POK building these infrastructure and other millitary structures for a possible China-Pak war against India.
In light of these, the likeliest threat scenario of 2025 is, where PLA and PA launching tandem/ simultaneous attacks on Kashmir, PLA from the northern part (Gilgit/ Baltistan) and PA from southern POK. PLA will also launch a second pincer assault from the Siachen glacier, to force out IA from Kashmir valley (see picture attached).

PLA/PA strategy:
The PLA/PA strategy would be to cover as much ground as fast possible and set up advance bases. Advanced intelligence will be a key factor for their success. Unfortunately, the millitant activity in the Kashmir region has provided lot of potential spies to the PA and their information about army/ air force facilities will be pretty accurate.
The PLA (red arrows) would launch two attacks, simultaneously - one from the northeast (Leh region) and one from the north (Kargil/ Drass sector), both attacks will use with their elite mountain divisions. The attack from the north will be heavy infantry (with infantry mortars, missile / rocket launchers and anti-tank guns) using the highways built for Pakistan by China, which are linked with chinese highways. The attack from the northeast would be paradropped near target sites. Their goal would be to destroy/ damage key army/ airforce establishments, create confusion and diversion, for the real PA attack from the west and south west. and in the ensuing chaos, establish a foothold in the Kashmir valley. The PLA thrust from the North east will be targeted against the IAF bases in the Ladakh region. The PLAAF will provide them necessary air support across the mountains.
The PA strike (green arrows) will come across from the west (Baramullah) and Southwest (Jammu City). The PA thrust in the Baramullah sector will be fast, using mountain troops, light tanks and self-propelled artillery. The objective of this thrust will be to link up with the Drass/ Kargil sector thrust by the PLA and "liberate" Srinagar. Their first objective would be to neutralize the air force base in the Avantipura and the army base at Srinagar (XV corps headquarters) any SAM installation in the region. Once this is achieved, the PAF can provide air support to the PA and PLA forces in the north/ west sector.
The primary objective of the PA strike from southwest towards Jammu City area would be to neutralize the XVI corps headquarters at Nagrota. This strike force would contain the MBT (Al-Khalid or more advanced), mobile artillery, rocket launchers and heavy infantry, to destroy the bridges, highways and access possibilities in the Jammu valley to and from Punjab. The secondary objective of this attack will be to cut off Northern Command based in Udhampur and force the surrender of the Northern Command. This would be a PA political objective, along with the "liberation" of Jammu and Kashmir, to compensate for the loss of face the PA suffered during liberation of Bangladesh and the surrender of east Pakistani forces.

IA/IAF strategy:
The IA would like to have advanced warning of any troop/ equipment movement from PA or PLA side. For PA, ground, radio, aerial and satellite surveillance will be employed, whereas for PLA, primarily satellite, radio and to a lesser extent aerial surveillance will be used. The key here would be advanced warning, without which it would be impossible for IA to move arms, armament and equipment in the extremes climates of Northern Kashmir and Ladakh region.
The threat of para-dropped mountain infantry in the ladakh area will be a major threat to the air force which has started operating several small air-bases in the eastern Ladakh area. Also, the XVI corps headquarters are in the Leh area, which will be a likely target for the PLA/ PLAAF attacks and will have to be secured by defensive preparations. The airlift capability of the IA will be of significance at these times and the transport helicopters (LTH and MTH) fleets of the IA will be indispensable.
The recent posting of Su-30MKI squadrons in the Kashmir/ Ladakh region has significantly bolstered IAF forces to counter simultaneous attacks from PAF and PLAAF. Timely replacement of the aged Mig-21s with LCA Mk-II will neutralise the threats of PAF/ PLAAF ground attack aircraft, while the replacement of the Jaguars with the MMRCA deployment will be essential to support IA operations against invading tanks/ artillery units. By 2025, the AMCA should be operational too, in which case, the stealth features of those aircraft might provide India the chance to hit back on PA/ PLA installations across the border. Another major source of threat will be unmanned ground attack drones of the PLAAF. If the DRDO can deliver on the IAF ground attack drones, the power parity might be restored.
The short range surface to surface missiles of the IA will be very useful in the defensive actions in the Kashmir area. Although the mountainous geography reduces the effectiveness of a mass destructive device, for small tactical devices, targeted strikes in key passes, valley entrances and ravines will be ideal. In addition, the light tanks (built together with poland), light artillery (from Russia) and infantry attack vehicles (possibly built with Israeli help) will be important assets to the IA defense.
To release the pressure in the Kashmir region, the IA will try to launch offensives across the Pakistan border further south (Punjab or Rajasthan sector). This may draw out some Pakistani reserves from the Northern areas. Oh the other hand, Pakistan will expect such moves and may have prepared strategic defenses along the southern borders. The key woud be to push back the Pakistani forces enough to neutralise their thrust in the north, while not to make them desparate enough (like targeting Islamabad) to use a Nuclear device.
Finally, the IA has a strong presence in Kashmir valley, with three corps deployments in three strategic locations and the northern command headquarters in Udhampur. Their ability to keep the supply lines open from Pathankot to Jammu city will determine the fate of the siege of Kashmir.

- Comments are welcome - Logical and fact-based criticism is welcome too.

 

[luke holmes]

China does all stupid things to trouble India, it sees India as a threat to not to existence but to its designs and domination in this part of the world.

China not only aided the Pak's nuclear program, it is arming and abetting many ways against India.