Section 2 -
North-Eastern front (Land and Air-battle)
Remember, this will be a war over oil and maybe other natural resources, so it will be well planned and well co-ordinated. Already China has built highways close to the Indian border of Arunachal Pradesh. They also have built roadways towards (and through) Myanmar - and can launch fast, heavily armored multi-pronged land attacks against India in the north-east. Compared to that, India does not have much logistic mobility in the area and may be forced to play defense heavily.
Land Battles -
PLA Tactics: The Chinese goal would be to cut off Arunachal Pradesh with thrusts from the east (towards Myanmar border) and the west (towards Bhutan border) with armored divisions (tanks like Type 99, Type 96 and 96G) followed by mechanized infantry divisions. If the larger more accessible passes prove to be well defended, the PLA can always airlift or airdrop light mechanized infantry behind enemy defenses and find less accessible passes to move it's heavier armor. Surveillance, satellite mapping and ground intelligence will be essential to PLA for this scenario. Local anti-India secessionist and terrorist groups with links to the Chinese will be an asset for PLA at this point for ground intelligence and guidance. The flanking movements will be followed by artillary barrage and PLAAF bombardment of the remaining IA forces in Arunachal Pradesh. At the same time PLA will be setting up gun-artillery, rocket-artillary and mobile missile pods in the captured areas to thwart any Indian counter offensive to open up access into Arunachal Pradesh. Then a central thrust from near Nyingchi will try to finish off the cut-off remaining forces if they have not surrendered already. The superior armor strength, better logistic and mobilization capabilities will be an important asset for the PLA. The PLA cruise and ballistic missiles (with high explosive conventional warheads) will also be useful in softening up any exposed defensive structure IA has in place. Nuclear war will not be an option to China since conventional war would suffice for their goals and only a Nuclear war will bring over USA to India's side, which China cannot let happen.
IA Tactics: In this scenario, the IA will be hard pressed to counter the flanking Chinese attacks and the mountainous terrain will be more hindrance than help to mount swift defenses. Advance intelligence is essential for the IA to build up forces in sufficient numbers inside Arunachal Pradesh. Also, preparing defenses and artillery positions in the easier access passes will be a safe bet for IA. This will make these passes too risky for PLA and will force them to take slower routes in their flanking movement. This in turn will enable IA (probably with help from paramilitary forces) to bring in supply and reinforcements rapidly into Arunachal Pradesh once reports of the Chinese aggression starts coming in. A new generation of MBT (whether it is the Arjun Mark II or the FMBT) will be of immense value at this point t because the T-90 is no match for the T-99 and the T-96 of PLA. However, in the mountainous regions of Arunachal Pradesh, Tank deployment will be limited and other mobile armored vehicles like NGIFV, ZBD-97 etc will be fielded by the PLA in large numbers. To counter them, IA will need to field BMP-2 and it's more sophisticated derivatives in large numbers. Although the HAL Dhruv is an asset, the new generation light combat helicopter will be essential to counter the armored infantry as well as the combat helicopters of the PLA (CAIC WZ-10). To redress the imbalance in tank power, India's anti-Tank missiles and anti-tank guns will come in handy too - sadly India still does not have a program for any next generation anti-tank infantry weapon (shoulder mounted).
Air Battle:
PLAAF: The PLAAF fighters (J-10, J-11B and J-XX) will provide air support during these flanking maneuvers, and ensure that the IAF does not stop the armored divisions of the PLA from moving in. The PLAAF ground attack aircraft will be used to take out entrenched IA positions and attack IA armor. However, deployment of the top PLAAF fighters will depend upon the strategic importance of tArunachal Pradesh to Chinese expansion plans, because they would not like to lose too many of their top-of the line fighters in the unpredictable / treacherous mountainous regions, where chance SAMs and inferior IAF interceptors (LCA tejas) might bring down an expensive J-11B.
IAF: Although numerically IAF (~100 FGFA, ~250 Su-30MKI, ~200 MRCA, ~250 LCA and maybe some remnants of Mig 29SMT and Mirage-2000-V) will never catch up with the PLAAF (~200 J-XX, ~200 J-11A/B, ~200 Su27/ Su-30MKK, ~300 J-10 and ~200 other 3rd gen fighters like J-8 and J-7), qualitatively the IAF will be more than a match for PLAAF inside Indian territory (FGFA vs J-XX; Su-30 MKI vs J-11A/B; MRCA vs Su-27/ su-30MKK and J-10 vs LCA). IAF will have two roles cut out for them - maintaining air-superiority over Arunachal Pradesh skies to deter the ground attack aircraft of PLAAF and attack the superior armor of the PLA whenever possible. A probable force of 2 squadrons of FGFA, 5 sq of Su-30 MKI, 3-4 sq of MRCA and 5-6 sq of LCA will be needed to counter the PLAAF. If IAF can start flying the MCA by 2025, it will give them the edge in land attack capability.
As you can see from this analysis, PLA is and would stil be superior in both quantity and quality to IA. There is nothing to be ashamed of in this. For the last 60-70 years, China has maintained a large territorial army and for the last 30+ years they have been modernising it too. Given their HUGE size (twice as big as India) it makes a lot of sense. However, PLAAF and IAF are evenly matched in quality and any battle inside India will neutralize any numerical advantage PLAAF holds.
So in the North-Eastern front, PLA and PLAAF might make some advances in Arunachal Pradesh, but they will be repulsed by IA and IAF from closing the "pocket" around Arunachal Pradesh. The war will drag on, extending the PLA supply lines and threaten to cause serious damage to PLAAF, not to mention China's diplomatic status world over as an aggressor. In 4-6 months (assuming a spring/ summer offensive), as the weather changes to the Himalayan winter, the PLA will negotiate a truce, exchange prisoners and pull back to reasonable ground - India may lose a peak or two, but eventually international pressure may force the chinese to give back any land they have captured.
I am working on Section 3 and will post that in 24 hours if people are interested to hear more of my analysis. (I am trying to write a fictional story about an India vs China/ Pak war in 2025, hence all the analysis on my part).
