If India has to go for a two fronts war against China and Pakistan...

[nitesh]

China tried blocking the loan trying to show up it's big (so called) stature and got a bloody nose.

 

[ppgj]

lets hope we dont face any such situation in which russia betrays us

it is not a question of betrayal. russia and china have resolved their border issue and are much more interdependant. moreover china is no more it was back in 60's and russia is not the super power that SU was. it is hard core geopolitics. we need to stand up on our own.

 

[no smoking]

China tried blocking the loan trying to show up it's big (so called) stature and got a bloody nose.

Yes, relying on US and Japan. So, it's a victory of US and Japan. For india, there is nothing to be proud of .

 

[nitesh]

Yes, relying on US and Japan. So, it's a victory of US and Japan. For india, there is nothing to be proud of .

Don't tell me the twisted logic it's simple China tried blocking falied miserably diplomatic victory for India. As simple as that.

 

[johnq]

China working on a military plan against India?

New Delhi: A day after India downplayed the China threat, calling it a media creation, CNN-IBN has access to a confidential intelligence note that suggests that Beijing is acting on a definite military plan on the border.


“There is no mutually agreed or delineated line of actual control between the two countries,” Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said underscoring why intrusions take place.


According to the Government, no defined border exists and the armies of both countries follow a vague and illogical line where hostilities ceased in 1962.


But the perils of this situation cannot be minimised. A confidential intelligence note with CNN-IBN suggests the Chinese are working to an India centric plan:


In Arunachal Pradesh, the behaviour of Chinese troops has become more aggressive. Border pillars in some areas have been deliberately broken and bunkers have been built on the Indian side of the McMahon Line.


Opposite Sikkim's eastern border a new highway and permanent army structures have come up. Chinese forces are now positioned to cut the strategic Siliguri corridor in India in the event of hostilities.


A joint command of the Lanzhou Military Region opposite Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and the Chengdu Military Region opposite India's North-east have come up.


From Tibet, China can airlift 20,000 troops to anywhere along the frontiers with India in two hours.


By comparison the infrastructure in India's north-east remains poor. A key highway in Arunachal Pradesh has only now received environment clearance. In Ladakh, the pace of road construction linking key points along the Line of Actual Control is laggard and Chushul remains without an all-weather road link.


The only silver lining here is that hostilities of any kind could rebound on China. It would confirm suspicions about Beijing's intentions and reinforce moves in South-East and North-East Asia to form powerful new coalitions against the expansion of Chinese power.

 

[IBRIS]

To fortify Arunachal, military takes over 5 air bases

India has begun fortifying its borders in Arunachal Pradesh against China. As the first step, five air bases in the state have been taken over by the military.

On the night of September 18, the Pasighat, Tuting, Vijaynagar, Walong and Mechuka bases close to the China border were passed from the Airports Authority of India to the defence ministry.

Headlines Today has learnt that the five bases were transferred to the military authorities after a quick clearance from the Prime Minister's Office.

The bases were initially only to be upgraded by the defence ministry, but now it has been given full control.

Headlines Today has learnt that under military control, the five bases will be used by the air force and the army to increase surveillance across crucial stretches of the border with China.

The defence ministry has already drawn up a fresh airborne surveillance plan for the eastern sector. The plan will coincide with the visit of the Dalai Lama to Tawang in Arunachal.

After activating some air bases in Ladakh, the fortification of Arunachal Pradesh is being seen as a message to China that not only was the state a part of India, it was also being actively guarded.

More defence measures were in the pipeline in the state. These included the setting up of air force headquarters in the state and an airstrip for spy Drones at Anini.
To fortify Arunachal, military takes over 5 air bases: India Today - Latest Breaking News from India, World, Business, Cricket, Sports, Bollywood.

 

[tarunraju]

I think the best deterrent is that we escalate the stakes (cost of war) for China, which will effectively make a war against us unfeasible. To do that we don't necessarily need to arm ourselves to match China. The way it stands today, despite Pakistan having a smaller military footprint, it has managed to make the cost of war against it high enough to make waging a war against it unfeasible. That's what I'm getting at.

 

[Martian]

I didn't read all 71 pages of posts. However, I just want to point out that fighting a two-front war is not recommended. The Germans in World Wars I and II have shown that a two-front war is bad military strategy. I think India should avoid a war with Pakistan and China unless India is confident that it can defeat Pakistan in a matter of days and knock it out of the war.

But that still leaves a difficult question. Are you guys sure that India (GDP: 1.2 trillion; military budget: 32 billion) wants to go to war with China (GDP: 4.4 trillion; military budget: 70 billion)? See List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and List of countries by military expenditures - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In 1939, Germany had the world's second largest GDP. Germany waged war on its weak neighbors (i.e. Austria, Poland, Czechoslovakia, etc.) and gobbled them up. See Allied and Axis GDP

Today, India is facing a neighbor that has a GDP 3 1/2 times larger and a military budget twice as large. If I were a smaller dog, I would try everything to avoid getting bitten by a bigger dog. Doesn't common sense dictate that India should do everything to avoid getting into a fight with a much bigger neighbor?

Logically, the only way to scare the Chinese is to bring in the United States. However, the U.S. is already bogged down in two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. We have no spare troops. Since the U.S. is bogged down, the Russians could invade and annex parts of Georgia with impunity.

In my opinion, without U.S. help (which is currently not available and it is uncertain if the U.S. will provide it), the probability of India winning a war against China is low. I recommend that India avoid fighting a war that it has little chance of winning.

 

[Yusuf]

It's not that India is going to invite Pakistan and china for a war. We are dis Jedi g the possibility to the two nations either ganging up or Pakistan taking a cheap shot during a wsr with china.

India and chinas military budget cannot be compared. China is a larger country and has different requirement. Similarly India has a bigger budget than pakistan. That is India has other objectives.

 

[Sabir]

I didn't read all 71 pages of posts. However, I just want to point out that fighting a two-front war is not recommended. The Germans in World Wars I and II have shown that a two-front war is bad military strategy. I think India should avoid a war with Pakistan and China unless India is confident that it can defeat Pakistan in a matter of days and knock it out of the war.

The thread is about if India is forced to be in a two front war. Think if China invades India and and Pakistan tries to capitalise seeing India off-guard

But that still leaves a difficult question. Are you guys sure that India (GDP: 1.2 trillion; military budget: 32 billion) wants to go to war with China (GDP: 4.4 trillion; military budget: 70 billion)? See List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and List of countries by military expenditures - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In 1939, Germany had the world's second largest GDP. Germany waged war on its weak neighbors (i.e. Austria, Poland, Czechoslovakia, etc.) and gobbled them up. See Allied and Axis GDP

Today, India is facing a neighbor that has a GDP 3 1/2 times larger and a military budget twice as large. If I were a smaller dog, I would try everything to avoid getting bitten by a bigger dog. Doesn't common sense dictate that India should do everything to avoid getting into a fight with a much bigger neighbor?

War is not the game that our cousines often play with stickers of WWF heros. Of course the bigger one has some advantage in a long drawan war but in reality it depends on situation, place,strategy etc. Even if China has a bigger inventory , can they bring whole of its inventory while attacking. simplly not possible.

Logically, the only way to scare the Chinese is to bring in the United States. However, the U.S. is already bogged down in two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. We have no spare troops. Since the U.S. is bogged down, the Russians could invade and annex parts of Georgia with impunity.

In my opinion, without U.S. help (which is currently not available and it is uncertain if the U.S. will provide it), the probability of India winning a war against China is low. I recommend that India avoid fighting a war that it has little chance of winning.

India can never win a war against China...its sole objective will be to maintain a stalemate while crippling Pakistan as soon as possible. In a China-India war , the attacker will suffer more.

 

[ejazr]

In my opinion, without U.S. help (which is currently not available and it is uncertain if the U.S. will provide it), the probability of India winning a war against China is low. I recommend that India avoid fighting a war that it has little chance of winning.

I doubt anyone is expecting war to be the first option. But it will be the only option if it is imposed on us i.e. a defensive war. India-China will go out of their way to avoid a war atleast for now. Although we can't show weakness.

IMO, India should make sure that China has to cater to a two front war as well. And Russia will be in the best position to help us with this regard. If we recall the 1971 liberation war. It was precisely because of Russia that China didn't come to Pakistan's aid.

What India should be doing is placating and reconciling with SAARC countries, keep talking to the Chinese without engaging in war rhetoric but at the same time maintain high vigilance/ military/surveillance presence on the Northern borders. The statement "Talk softly but carry a big stick" comes to mind.

 

[ppgj]

IMO, India should make sure that China has to cater to a two front war as well. And Russia will be in the best position to help us with this regard. If we recall the 1971 liberation war. It was precisely because of Russia that China didn't come to Pakistan's aid.

though it is desirable, i think it is improbable unless something drastically changes between russia and china.
1. coldwar ended, warsaw pact is non existant.
2. soviet union came down. russia inspite of being a power, does not wield the same clout.
3. in 1971,su-china had a border dispute which is settled now.russia does not have any interest, i guess, to get into conflict 'cos it serves them no purpose.
4. china is no more it was in 70s. it has rapidly grown both as military and economic power.
5. sino-russian reltions are much more interdependant. russia will not endanger that.
however, one can safely(?) assume russia supporting in terms of weapons in a quiet way.
USA i guess, may chip in with financial support clandestinely, aprt from stopping pakistan from any misadventure. i also assume israel to support in a very very quiet way.
at the end of the day we should think we are alone in this and prepare ourselves for it.

 

[Singh]

Something to think about.
"Mathematically the possibility of 2 events happening at the same time is rarer than possibility of a single event."

 

[Martian]

I posted this in another thread, but I don't think anybody has read it. I apologize for double posting here. I would really like to see a reply. If India hikes her defense spending by double or triple the current less-than-2% GDP then India can face Pakistan and China from a position of strength and wage a two-front war against both those countries.

Here I go again. I'm going to try and think outside of the box. Couldn't India close the military gap with China by doubling or tripling the Indian defense budget? Why in the world is the defense budget at less than 2% of GDP? For comparison, Israel spends 9% of GDP on defense.

"The latest increase was above inflation but defence analysts said spending had fallen below 2 percent of GDP for the first time in at least a decade due to fiscal pressures and larger outlays for farm, health and education sectors." See India's defence budget rises, but problems remain | Business News | Reuters

"Currently, Israel spends a ratio of nearly 9 percent its GDP on defense." See Palestine Center - Israel's Defense Budget: The Business Side of War

 

[Vladimir79]

I posted this in another thread, but I don't think anybody has read it. I apologize for double posting here. I would really like to see a reply. If India hikes her defense spending by double or triple the current less-than-2% GDP then India can face Pakistan and China from a position of strength and wage a two-front war against both those countries.

Here I go again. I'm going to try and think outside of the box. Couldn't India close the military gap with China by doubling or tripling the Indian defense budget? Why in the world is the defense budget at less than 2% of GDP? For comparison, Israel spends 9% of GDP on defense.

"The latest increase was above inflation but defence analysts said spending had fallen below 2 percent of GDP for the first time in at least a decade due to fiscal pressures and larger outlays for farm, health and education sectors." See India's defence budget rises, but problems remain | Business News | Reuters

"Currently, Israel spends a ratio of nearly 9 percent its GDP on defense." See Palestine Center - Israel's Defense Budget: The Business Side of War

Well, think about the consequences. If you triple defence spending, you are going to be starting an arms race. China will quickly increase their spending and lend additional aid to Pakistan. US and IMF will probably be sucked into giving Pakistan more money in the face of a suspect India. US, Israel, and EU will say, "WTH is India doing" and withdraw weapon sales infering India plans on going on the offencive.

The best way to grow your military budget is to due it gradually and in proportion to GDP not to raise any alarms. If you jack it up all at once you are going to be seen as a world threat. Plus you will reduce your economic development which you particularly need to maintain that military.

 

[Martian]

"China spends about 2.3 percent to 2.8 percent of its gross domestic product on its People's Liberation Army, much more than officially acknowledged but well below some outside estimates, a report said Friday.

The report, by the think tank Rand Corp., said that in terms of purchasing power, China's military spends between US$69 billion and US$78 billion (euro55 billion and euro62 billion) a year, estimated in 2001 U.S. dollars _ well below some estimates by outside experts.

That compares with the US$430 billion (euro340 billion) spent by the United States on defense in 2004, or 3.9 percent of U.S. GDP. " See Report: China military spending up to 2.8 percent of GDP; below some estimates | Article from AP Worldstream | HighBeam Research

India's defense spending as a percentage of GDP at less than 2% is not comparable to China's 2.3 to 2.8% or U.S.'s 3.9%. India needs to increase defense spending by 1 to 2% of GDP (or 50% to 100% of defense budget) to match worldwide norms.

India feels vulnerable because India is clearly spending too little.

 

[amitkriit]

India and Russia will extend their `strategic and military partnership' by another 10 years right till 2020.

India, Russia to ink new military pact - India - The Times of India

So this will not be India only who will have to fight a two-front war I suppose.

 

[zolpidam]

"China spends about 2.3 percent to 2.8 percent of its gross domestic product on its People's Liberation Army, much more than officially acknowledged but well below some outside estimates, a report said Friday.

The report, by the think tank Rand Corp., said that in terms of purchasing power, China's military spends between US$69 billion and US$78 billion (euro55 billion and euro62 billion) a year, estimated in 2001 U.S. dollars _ well below some estimates by outside experts.

That compares with the US$430 billion (euro340 billion) spent by the United States on defense in 2004, or 3.9 percent of U.S. GDP. " See Report: China military spending up to 2.8 percent of GDP; below some estimates | Article from AP Worldstream | HighBeam Research

India's defense spending as a percentage of GDP at less than 2% is not comparable to China's 2.3 to 2.8% or U.S.'s 3.9%. India needs to increase defense spending by 1 to 2% of GDP (or 50% to 100% of defense budget) to match worldwide norms.

India feels vulnerable because India is clearly spending too little.

I agree with you that India should increase its defense budget , But we have to remember that Even India is not able to properly utilize its allocated defense budget. Even today we are not able to spend money on artillery after boforse case. Some where I read about it . If member of our forum can put some light on it

 

[Atul]

India needs strategic partners Taiwan and South Korea to sustain in this game.

Just like China is circle INDIA with its presence in Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma, Srilanka. India can & must have strategic partnerships with Taiwan, South Korea & Japan. fishing in Vietnam will also help.

The US & the Russians are in a fix when it comes to china (Coz of the chinese economic strength & not coz of its military display), one must always remember the US was is & will always be a Capitalist economy. It will not & cannot effort in this phase of recession to tackle the chinese wrongly (Not meeting the Dalai lama coz of the Chinese is a strong proof of the same).

India must leave no stone unturned to make alliance with those who are equally threatened by a common foe (China).

As for the Pakistan Factor, Our armed forces are sufficiently strong to get them to their knees with in a few days. But enpowering Afghanistan & befriending the Shhiat IRAN will help pakistani army split at multiple fronts. ( herein i dont recommend Afghanistan & Iran Join forces with us & fight a war with Pakistan if it tries for any mis-adventure. a simple War exercise by this two nations besides pakistan border will help).

 

[ppgj]

If India hikes her defense spending by double or triple the current less-than-2% GDP then India can face Pakistan and China from a position of strength and wage a two-front war against both those countries.

hiking 3 times or 2 times is not easy. india still has a sizable population under poverty. agriculture, due to its dependance on monsoons, is drought prone- so needs special care. education still is a priority. not easy to put them aside and answer people.

go again. I'm going to try and think outside of the box. Couldn't India close the military gap with China by doubling or tripling the Indian defense budget? Why in the world is the defense budget at less than 2% of GDP?

china is authoritarian and so they don't feel the need to answer people inspite of the same problems they face as in india. in pakistan, the army decides everything including their foreign policy, so nobody answer the people. india, being democratic can't escape that.

latest increase was above inflation but defence analysts said spending had fallen below 2 percent of GDP for the first time in at least a decade due to fiscal pressures and larger outlays for farm, health and education sectors." See India's defence budget rises, but problems remain | Business News | Reuters

that is true. so the increase will happen but gradually. also remember defence procurement is a longterm business. not easy to estimate for any given year.

Israel spends a ratio of nearly 9 percent its GDP on defense." See Palestine Center - Israel's Defense Budget: The Business Side of War

israel lives under constant threat. apart they don't have the complexity of an indian scenario and they are pretty advanced. hence security is their main issue which explains their 9% budget.