If India has to go for a two fronts war against China and Pakistan...

[Adux]

Nuclear rivals had gone to war without ever resorting to using nukes.

Sino-Soviet
Soviet-Israeli
Indo-Pak

Sir,

Think about the political repcurrssions of loosing large amount of land, It will make the Indian state cease to exist in the current form along with the land lost in the war,other states will also want to cede from the center.

But it increases survival rates to the point that the Chinese would have to use all her arsenal just to take the nukes out ... and leaves nothing for anything else. Pakistan have no chance whatsoever.

The Agreement was that the spent fuel from these reactors will not be monitored but that does not automatically mean it is meant for weapons. Indian reactors still needs fuel from wherever she can get it.

India has enough Uranium deposits from India itself for those reactors, as long other reactors and the new one's could use Internationally supplied fuel.

Nukes are expensive and frankly useless on the battlefield. The major powers have abandon the concept of tactical nukes simply because accuracy and conventional warheads (HE, Thermobaric, and submunitions) has duplicated the equivlent effect. Five 500lb bombs dropped on a battalion HQ has more effect than a nuclear mine stopping an advancing column.

I was speaking in terms of a samson option(if it applies) where India just bombs very available target military and non-military which will cost massive amount of cost to the aggressors. That in itself should dissuade them from taking large amounts of land even if they could.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Think about the political repcurrssions of loosing large amount of land, It will make the Indian state cease to exist in the current form along with the land lost in the war,other states will also want to cede from the center.

That is not going to happen from the Chinese side from every PoV, from the size of the opposing forces, logistics requirements, terrain, and even from a doctrinal PoV from both WZC and Cold Start. And what are they going to win? A bunch of rocks?

Adu, you know this. Stop painting the Chinese as you want them to be. They are already telling what they can do and what they want to do. Go with those, not your wild imagination.

India has enough Uranium deposits from India itself for those reactors, as long other reactors and the new one's could use Internationally supplied fuel.

I know you think Ashley J. Tellis is a hack but do look through his numbers. India has more than enough uranium for all her needs. However, past corruptions and a really bad infrastruture makes it cheaper and necessary to get foreign supplies until the infrastruture problems can be solved (if ever).

I was speaking in terms of a samson option(if it applies) where India just bombs very available target military and non-military which will cost massive amount of cost to the aggressors. That in itself should dissuade them from taking large amounts of land even if they could.

And the Samson Option was out the window when the Soviets threatened Israel to the point where the Israeli cabinet was scared crapless that they were going to be destroyed.

Adu, I can see what you want. You want India to be able to win a nuclear war. Well, that is not going to happen. How about this? Stop wishing and start learning why Indian strategic planners think a 200 warhead arsenal is enough.

There are a lot of reasoning behind that number. Understand that reasoning first and you see why a 500 warhead arsenal is not going to increase your security one single bit.

 

[Adux]

Sir,

Somehow I thought that was a extremely good reply, but as usual you are going to make me work for very bit of knowledge you have attained..lol; Therefore I will sit and ponder on the directions you have pointed. Regarding the Nuclear War bit, as long as Pakistan and China combined cant win a Nuclear War against us, as a fanboy of this nation, I should rest easy.


Adu

 

[Adux]

Sir,

To keep you entertained; Here is a tidbit from Nepal Prachanda says India US planned to attack China through Nepal


And also your opinion on this

Crouching dragon http://www.hindustantimes.com/Story...d-9735-b084776b6dac&Headline=Crouching+dragon

The 2006 Chinese White Paper on defence had clearly articulated a perspective roadmap to superpower status in three clear stages:

* First Stage (By 2010): Create a modern force capable of defeating a moderate-sized adversary — namely Taiwan, India or Vietnam. This stage now seems complete a year ahead of schedule. The recent Chinese show of military muscle seems designed to highlight the actualisation of this capability.

* Second Stage (By 2020): Catch up with second-tier world powers like Russia, Europe and Japan.

* Third Stage (By 2050): Become a full-fledged superpower on par with the United States.

 

[hbogyt]

I don't get your implications.

Is that the same reason China holds only 200 warheads?

 

[Adux]

Crouching dragon

July 30, 2009
First Published: 21:48 IST(30/7/2009)
Last Updated: 21:52 IST(30/7/2009)


Later this year, the Chinese armed forces are to launch their largest round of military manoeuvres in recent years. Code-named Kuayue (stride), for two months, 60,000 vehicles will be mobilised over some 50,000 sq km. For the last 20 years, the Chinese have been holding massive manoeuvres each year to rehearse their projected invasion of Taiwan. What is new — and disturbing — is the radical change in pattern in Exercise Kuayue. For the first time, these are not directed at rehearsing an amphibious assault on Taiwan but are focused on the South China Sea instead.

The likely ‘target’ is Vietnam, with whom China has an ongoing dispute over the Spratley Islands, and oil exploration sites in the South China Sea. Last year, the Chinese had warned India’s ONGC not to take up oil exploration in the Dai Hong oil field of Vietnam.

Deng Xiaoping’s phase of ‘Hide your capabilities and bide your time’ is now over. China is aggressively showcasing its military capabilities and its willingness to use them. The test of its anti-satellite rocket had sent shock waves across the world in 2007. This year during its Naval Exposition held on April 23-25, China showcased its naval might to the whole world. In November this year, the Chinese Air Force will hold a similar exposition to flaunt its capabilities.

Over the last decade, China-Taiwan relations have improved vastly with the Kuomintang government led by Ma Ying Jao. This improvement in ties has rendered surplus a vast amount of Chinese military expeditionary capability. Chinese military doctrine speaks of the concept of ‘Zaoshi’. This includes posturing of military force for intimidation. Such displays of capabilities and overt deployments seek to signal the Chinese capability and resolve to use military force.

The 2006 Chinese White Paper on defence had clearly articulated a perspective roadmap to superpower status in three clear stages:

n First Stage (By 2010): Create a modern force capable of defeating a moderate-sized adversary — namely Taiwan, India or Vietnam. This stage now seems complete a year ahead of schedule. The recent Chinese show of military muscle seems designed to highlight the actualisation of this capability.

n Second Stage (By 2020): Catch up with second-tier world powers like Russia, Europe and Japan.

n Third Stage (By 2050): Become a full-fledged superpower on par with the United States.

The current change in China’s military profile is clearly indicative of an acceleration of the Chinese pace of military transformation. India’s military modernisation, on the other hand, is lagging far behind schedule, by almost a decade. There is an urgent need to speed up our weapons’ acquisition and military modernisation process. China’s Exercise Kuayue may well turn out to be a long overdue wake-up call.

G.D. Bakshi is a defence analyst and former major general with the Indian Army.

The views expressed by the author are personal.

From the Above Link

 

[Officer of Engineers]

I don't get your implications.

Is that the same reason China holds only 200 warheads?

Nuclear Warfare 101
Nuclear Warfare 102
Nuclear Warfare 103

This will give you a basis on how nuclear targeteer thinks. After you've read this, then I will go into why 200 is a good number.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

From the Above Link

Hope the ban is not permenant but always read the original source when you can, not the eval of it. In this case, the 2008 White Paper.

 

[masterofsea]

Assume it's year 2020. China and India ready to face each other and Pakistan has Joined their old alley. How India should counter enemies simultaneusly..what should be the proper strategy?

Dont say, You dont want a war. Wars are started by the politicians and fought by the soldiers. Suggest what would be your strategy if you are the decision maker.

(chosen 2020 as by the time military modernization programme of both China and India will be near completion. So take care of future inductions too, but logically)

I never saw assumption like this in chinese forum,Even in the most nationalism sense anti-cnn forum.Topics of future war with china is everywhere in this forum.Why you indian people alway think china will attack india?We never thought that India will attack china.

 

[Rage]

I never saw assumption like this in chinese forum,Even in the most nationalism sense anti-cnn forum.Topics of future war with china is everywhere in this forum.Why you indian people alway think china will attack india?We never thought that India will attack china.

Relax. This is just a hypothetical discussion. Infact, Sabir's whole post begins with the injunction "Assume".

The purpose of the discussion is employable military tactics and strategies, and comparative doctrines in a given geopolitical environment. And Brigs. OoE and Ray and Adux and others have expounded well upon the theme.

 

[Sabir]

I never saw assumption like this in chinese forum,Even in the most nationalism sense anti-cnn forum.Topics of future war with china is everywhere in this forum.Why you indian people alway think china will attack india?We never thought that India will attack china.

Dear,
It is not that I am a war monger or I want to satisfy myself with imaginary story where India is defeating China. My intention was just to discuss the effective strategy in an imaginary situation. I must say in my own opinion war is a remote possibility as niether China nor India is stupid enogh to chock their tremendous growth potential. But still the arms race will be there....military modernization and expansion...military excercise ...and of course our stupid discussion on Imaginary war...

Regards,

 

[Sabir]

Some members were discussing the possibility of full scale nuclear war against china. Why not to take a look of the Anti Ballistic Missile Defence System of both countries.

ABM system- India

India is the fourth nation in the world ( After USA, Russia and Israel) to Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) capability and the third nation to develop it through indigenous effort.:blum3:
In 1995 India procured 6 batteries of Russian S-300 surface to air missiles in response to Pakistan’s deployment of M-11 missiles (brought from China). India was also interested to acquire Arrow system (jointly developed by USA and Israel) but failed due to refusal of USA.India started development of its own ABM programme to counter a full scale nuclear attack from Pakistan.

Around 40 public and private companies participated in this effort. Israel also cooperated with India by jointly developing Swordfish long range tracking radar (LRTR) which is a derivative of Greenpine radar used in Arrow system.India’s ABM system can be classified in two categories-

1) Prithvi Air Defence (PAD)- two staged missile to intercept enemy missile outside atmosphere with a maximum range of 80 km.

2)Advanced Air Dfence (AAD)-single staged missile to intercept enemy missile within the atmosphere(30 km).

In November 2006 India successfully conducted PAD Exercise where a missile mimicking the trajectory of M-11 missile was intercepted at an altitude of 50 km. On 6th December an missile was intercepted at an altitude of 15 km. On March 6 ,2009 India successfully test PAD system again. A ship launched Dhanus missile mimicking trajectory of a missile launched from a distance of 1500 km was intercepted successfully at an altitude of 75 km.

Possibly this system (which has hit probability of 99.8 % as per DRDO source) will be inducted in service in 2011. New hypersonic missiles are being developed to intercept ballistic missiles of 5000km range (similar to THAAD missile deployed by USA).

According to some source India is also developing a LASER based defense system to destroy enemy missile in the initial stages of launch, though it may take 10-15 years to make it usable.
The Hindu News Update Service

ABM- China
China’s indigenous effort to develop ABM system Project 640 was cancelled despite some initial advancement. For details read Project 640: China's National Missile Defence in the '70s - SinoDefence.com
China has acquired S-300 PMU-1 and S-300 PMU-2 series of ABM capable SAMs from Russia. Indigenous HQ-9 and Chinese-Russian HQ-19 SAMs also have some ABM capabilities.
S-300PMU (SA-10) Air Defence Missile System - SinoDefence.com

 

[SammyCheung]

Please, India bought some Israel equipment for use against Scud-class rocket, then got a deal to manufacture some components (but many key components still need to be imported). This so called ABM is not effective against China's much more advanced SRBMs.

A nuclear war against China is hopeless for India. India doesn't have a good delivery vehicle (Agni-II is not even officially in service) and doesn't have fusion weapons. China's nuclear stockpile is several times larger than what western think tanks think it is.

 

[Ray]

In case of a nuclear war, there will be other contenders who will use their strategic assets against China.

It is not because they feel any extra camaraderie, but because a nuclear war will devastate the world and it would be ideal an opportunity to snuff out China's desire to be a superpower!

 

[IBRIS]

YouTube - India snubs China, clears mega irrigation project in Arunachal



Our troops deployment into Arunachal Pradesh has to do with the fact that it is still claimed by India; A postition that would have employed by any country.
There is great suspecion in both countries regarding the others intent and which is also fueled by America and Pakistan. India and China's political and civil society have already stated that they would like to solve the border issues ambicaly and have adopted various CBM to show that. Various proposals for border settlement have been mooted and talks are going on to solve it.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

A nuclear war against China is hopeless for India. India doesn't have a good delivery vehicle (Agni-II is not even officially in service) and doesn't have fusion weapons. China's nuclear stockpile is several times larger than what western think tanks think it is.

So I take it that you don't read your own people.

Among the nuclear weapon states, China … possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry, April 2004

A simple back of the envelop calculation suggests the Brits have around 200 warheads (4 SSBNs on a rotating deployment).

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Musharraf’s disclosure : Had planned to nuke India,Indian Subcontinent, News Analysis, India News Online

And in his book, he stated that Pak nukes were not readied during Kargil. I wish the man would just pick a story and stick to it.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

India is the fourth nation in the world ( After USA, Russia and Israel) to Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) capability and the third nation to develop it through indigenous effort.

The Chinese were well into nuke tipped ABM research in the 1980s. They gave up on the idea since their interceptors were relatively short range and the idea of multiple nukes going over your head just seems wrong.

 

[prahladh]

Why Nuke tipped ABM. Becuase they can't hit an incoming BM like typical ABMs ?

 

[Sridhar]

Please, India bought some Israel equipment for use against Scud-class rocket, then got a deal to manufacture some components (but many key components still need to be imported). This so called ABM is not effective against China's much more advanced SRBMs.

A nuclear war against China is hopeless for India. India doesn't have a good delivery vehicle (Agni-II is not even officially in service) and doesn't have fusion weapons. China's nuclear stockpile is several times larger than what western think tanks think it is.

The below reply is from Ravi , an insider from LRDE which will clear your doubts and most of us. I have edited only names.

First technology cannot be purchased and used just like that. This is common misconception which is read only in newsmagazines and defence magazines

It has to be developed with involvement and with user acceptance. Otherwise, you get only LRU which is of limited use and is not of good value for long term project

In DRDO, the plan is to only go for those item which is either too long to develop in India, or too expensive to develop from basic, or which can be leveraged into more development items.

What this means is that extensive involvement is done. You cannot just buy technology and use it because you dont understand it.

So the option is to codevelop and use joint research on some specific item and make rest in India, and then develop the rest more and replace with indian IP as requirements need the same.

User also has say at every level if it is user specific project and not a technology development project.

So this is why "Buy and Use" approach doesnt work. DRDO cannot just buy out technology and call its own. It is useless. You cannot even integrate such technology with own equipment because your own equipment will not at all work with bought out technology designed for other system

this is also why HAL MMR had problems. By time, airborne tests showed ground mapping mode was full of bugs it was not useful to even purchase OTS module for mapping from OEMs since OEM module will not work for MMR

earlier SAAB ERICCSON had offered help which was also refused for same reason because MMR work required too much time to use SAAB Software

So you see you cannot just buy and use unlike what some believe

I hope this answers your question.

Presently LRDE is also working on many new Radar for user which will make suitable impact when released. I hope you, my friends will be suitably happy with developments. Once this is done within coming 2 years, India will be 80 percent self reliant in radars. These are new generation, frequency agile, 3D Radars with electronic scanning. WLR has also gone through trials successfully and user is very satisfied with the same and will be standard radar in the role for the user.

Ravi, since you seem like an inside guy, can you throw some light on how much of LRTR is indegenous? how much individual components do we source from Israel or US?

Dear freind, its best we do not talk of LRTR and ABM in public space because it is strategic program. But do not worry, LRTR is for local manufacture. India do not source radar systems for local program from US, there is reality that ITAR issue is still a problem.

There is this doubt that it is GreenPine re-branded. Also the range of this radar mentioned on public domain is very confusing.

It is not GreenPine

DRDO worked with Israel to make own radar specific for ABM program.

The range is sufficient for long range gating and acquisition, and yes range specifics is not mentioned publically for LRTR or tom-tomed because it will give a clear idea of system growth capability

Also this radar is considered AESA, while we seem to be struggling with that technology. If I am not wrong, many international firms extending invites for participation on AESA joint ventures means, India is lacking somewhere.

friend, we are not struggling with AESA. Thanks to rajendra program and project AKASH we are now sufficiently aware of and capable with electronic scanning radars.
What we are to sufficiently grow in is airborne radar for fast moving platform like fighter jets. This is entirely qualitatively different field than system for long range surveillance based on stationary platform (AKASH, Program AD) and even air based surveillance system which are not on fast moving jets of speed like fighter aircraft
fighter jet radar are having stabilisation plus long range multi surveillance modes in compact package with anti clutter measures
This is area where some 8 OEMs are having experience in worldwide

This is where foreign OEM are offering cooperation and not just in AESA systems where we have indeed got sufficient growth capability and experience

Actually how good is this radar? how many would we need for a BMD?

LRTR is worldclass system, and one is required for every deployment which can have different battery attached depending on threat