High Speed Railway Corridor

[Moroboshi]

I feel Japan will be more than willing to invest in north-east with eye on China.

Way ahead of you

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...-rs-2239-crore-loans/articleshow/60703906.cms

 

[VIP]

No one will be more happier than me, if proven wrong. I just dont want the story of ghost town and ports like in Spain and Sri Lanka.

I do understand that the soft loan from Japan is exclusive for bullet train. I feel Japan will be more than willing to invest in north-east with eye on China.

It feels a bit odd to see one part of the country struggling to have a basic infrastructure like roads and other side is having a bullet train. This is my view entirely.

Ahmedabad and Mumbai is one of busiest route, I'm sure Gujjus won't disappoint you, you could see the list of the trains running daily on this route and see the Waiting List. Well, double decker train is a lifeline for this route as it has 1500+ seats but even that train gets full almost everyday. Don't forget the Air route, it also gets full. This route is ideal for a Pilot Bullet train project. Once we get the expertise, we will be making in India comparatively cheaper. Just like Metros.

 

[mayfair]

You dont have to trust me, below is the current Bullet train rates in Japan.

www.seat61.com/Japan.htm

And here are the rates in Taiwan..a country with comparable style of living

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_High_Speed_Rail#Ticket_fare_and_discount

The regular fare is about USD 50 that I think you'll find that they are half the price in Japan.

 

[IndianHawk]

It feels a bit odd to see one part of the country struggling to have a basic infrastructure like roads and other side is having a bullet train. This is my view entirely.

By that logic nothing should be built in Delhi and Mumbai. Why the Delhi should have metro when many places don't even have regular railways. Why should Mumbai have flyover when my dad's village doesn't have proper roads.

There should be no four line highway untill the entire country has equal two line roads.
And no airport for Delhi or Mumbai unless you build one in my home town .:biggrin2:

 

[Mikesingh]

L

And here are the rates in Taiwan..a country with comparable style of living

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_High_Speed_Rail#Ticket_fare_and_discount

The regular fare is about USD 50 that I think you'll find that they are half the price in Japan.

Many say it's going to run up a tremendous loss. Let's check out the profitability of the bullet train...

According to feasibility studies, estimated 40,000 passengers daily (4-6 trains running simultaneously, each three to four times a day).
Fare approx Rs 4000/- by 2023.
So 40,000 X 4000 = Rs160,000,000 per day or Rs 16 Crores.
160,000,000 X 365 = Rs 58,400,000,000 or Rs 5840 crores per year.

First 15 years no payback to Japan, so Rs 5840 X 15 = Rs 87,000 crores! And that's the amount of loan taken from Japan!

Now at 0.1%, Rs 88000 crores for 50 years would mean Rs 1850 crores per year in capital and interest to Japan. We get Rs 5840 crores per year. Even if if occupancy is half, it is still a profitable venture!!

All these calculations are from the top of my head. I'm a gonner in maths. So can someone please correct me here?

 

[aditya10r]

L

Many say it's going to run up a tremendous loss. Let's check out the profitability of the bullet train...

According to feasibility studies, estimated 40,000 passengers daily ( 4-6 trains running simultaneously).
Fare approx Rs 4000/- by 2023.
So 40,000 X 4000 = Rs160,000,000 per day or Rs 16 Crores.
160,000,000 X 365 = Rs 58,400,000,000 or Rs 5840 crores per year.

First 15 years no payback to Japan, so Rs 5840 X 15 = Rs 87,000 crores! And that's the amount of loan taken from Japan!

Now at 0.1%, Rs 88000 crores for 50 years would mean Rs 1850 crores per year in capital and interest to Japan. We get Rs 5840 crores per year. Even if if occupancy is half, it is still a profitable venture!!

All these calculations are from the top of my head. I'm a gonner in maths. So can someone please correct me here?

You have not factored inflation and extra charges(maybe on food).

The 16crore number you just put up could be 20-24 crore factoring inflation and additional charges.

 

[Adioz]

L

Many say it's going to run up a tremendous loss. Let's check out the profitability of the bullet train...

According to feasibility studies, estimated 40,000 passengers daily (4-6 trains running simultaneously, each three to four times a day).
Fare approx Rs 4000/- by 2023.
So 40,000 X 4000 = Rs160,000,000 per day or Rs 16 Crores.
160,000,000 X 365 = Rs 58,400,000,000 or Rs 5840 crores per year.

First 15 years no payback to Japan, so Rs 5840 X 15 = Rs 87,000 crores! And that's the amount of loan taken from Japan!

Now at 0.1%, Rs 88000 crores for 50 years would mean Rs 1850 crores per year in capital and interest to Japan. We get Rs 5840 crores per year. Even if if occupancy is half, it is still a profitable venture!!

All these calculations are from the top of my head. I'm a gonner in maths. So can someone please correct me here?

What are the maintenance charges going to be like? IMHO, these will come down in the long run as more and more of the production is localised and as more high speed rail lines are laid, but do we have a rough estimate of how much maintenance and operation is going to cost us the initial 10 years?

 

[IndianHawk]

What are the maintenance charges going to be like? IMHO, these will come down in the long run as more and more of the production is localised and as more high speed rail lines are laid, but do we have a rough estimate of how much maintenance and operation is going to cost us the initial 10 years?

Despite these impressive figures, every completed line incurs losses in its first years of operation. The Beijing–Tianjin HSR cost ¥20.42 billion to build and ¥1.8 billion annually to operate, (including ¥0.6 billion in interest payments) and needed to provide 40 million rides a year to reach profitabilty. In its first year, 2008–2009, it carried 18.7 million riders and generated ¥1.1 billion in revenues for a loss of ¥0.7 billion. The next year, ridership rose to 22.3 million and revenues improved to ¥1.4 billion, for a ¥0.5 billion loss. By 2016 it was maxed out, providing 100 million rides–100% capacity–and highly profitable. Construction of a second line has commenced. (WikiVisually).

I just copied the above part from quora. Not sure how adequate the figures are. But if the ridership on this route in china is 100 million / year our HSR will be overbooked.

India by 2023 will be more populated then china . Per capita income will be somewhat similar to Chinese per capita income in 2012-13.

At these levels bullet train will be overbooked. Especially between megacities.

Our maintenance cost will be lower then chinese thanks to high quality of Japanese technology which requires higher initial investment but less maintaining later.

We are actually late to the game. We should have started bullet train construction in 2012-13.
By 2018 it would be operational . Two- three years in losses wouldn't matter in long timespan .

 

[mayfair]

There's a 15 year moratorium on the loan repayment and I have not seen any documents to suggest that this is to be linked with inflation. That's not to say, it will not have an impact since, it will be affected by the INR-JPY exchange rate.

I believe none of us disagree that IR need some serious overhaul in terms of tracks, signalling, rolling stock and operations. For too long IR has been milked and abused at the whims and fancies of the banu/neta mafia and people have suffered as a reason.

The question is whether the HSR project is coming at the cost of these critical requirements?

Well there's no place better to examine this than the railway budget is it?

Let us have a look at the railway budget of 2015-2016 and see how much money has been allocated to take on the challenges being faced by the railways.

Highlights of the Indian Railways budget 2015-2016
http://pib.nic.in/archieve/railbudget/rbudget2015/rh2015.pdf

For better clarity, I will list them out in the descending order of amount allocated

Proposed Investment plan (2015-2019)
Item Amount (Rs in crore)
1. Network Decongestion (including DFC, Electrification, Doubling 199320
including electrification and traffic facilities
2. Network Expansion (including electrification) 193000
3. Safety (Track renewal, bridge works, ROB, RUB and Signalling 127000
Telecom
4. Rolling Stock (Locomotives, coaches, wagons– production & 102000
maintenance)
5. Station redevelopment and logistic parks 100000
6. High Speed Rail & Elevated corridor 65000
7. National Projects (North Eastern & Kashmir connectivity projects) 39000
8. Passenger amenities 12500
9. Others 13200
Total 856020

So out of the total allocations of 856020 crore, HSR & elevated corridor have been allocated 65000 crore

This is a grand total of 7.6% of the total allocations!!!

Now let us group the allocations into two fundamental task groups
1. Overhauling and expanding the railway infrastructure,
2. Improving passenger experience.

1. Improving Railway infrastructure
Network Decongestion (199320 crore) and Network expansion (193000 crore) alone have been allocated nearly 3 times the HSR allocation EACH!! Together the allocation for these two tasks is ~40% of the railway budget and if you include Safety (127000 crore), the share goes up to 61% of the Railway allocations. Kashmir and Northeast projects have been allocated separate funds of 39000 crore.

Together, these four tasks of improving and expanding the existing Railway infrastructure have been allocated 558320 crores, which is 65% of the Railway allocations.

2. Improving passenger experience
The second task group of passenger comfort is addressed by allocations for Rolling Stock (102000 crore), Station redevelopment (100000 crore) and Passenger amenities (12500 crore), which together add up to 214500 crore that is 25% of the allocation.

Together, these two account for 90% of all the allocations!!

So clearly the focus is on improving IA first and foremost.

There goes the myth that HSR will come at the cost of general improvements to IR.

 

[SKC]

Ahmedabad and Mumbai is one of busiest route, I'm sure Gujjus won't disappoint you, you could see the list of the trains running daily on this route and see the Waiting List. Well, double decker train is a lifeline for this route as it has 1500+ seats but even that train gets full almost everyday. Don't forget the Air route, it also gets full. This route is ideal for a Pilot Bullet train project. Once we get the expertise, we will be making in India comparatively cheaper. Just like Metros.

Yes exactly . This is a high profile and good revenue generating route filled with business people moving to and fro regularly between Ahemdabad and Mumbai. I am not sure but even Surat has higher density of business man and they must also be traveling to mumbai regularly .

This is an ideal route to start such project which will ensure high filling of seats in the trains

Sent from my LS-5201 using Tapatalk

 

[Mikesingh]

The question is whether the HSR project is coming at the cost of these critical requirements?

Well there's no place better to examine this than the railway budget is it?

Let us have a look at the railway budget of 2015-2016 and see how much money has been allocated to take on the challenges being faced by the railways.

Highlights of the Indian Railways budget 2015-2016
http://pib.nic.in/archieve/railbudget/rbudget2015/rh2015.pdf

For better clarity, I will list them out in the descending order of amount allocated

Proposed Investment plan (2015-2019)
Item Amount (Rs in crore)
6. High Speed Rail & Elevated corridor ------------------ 65000

So out of the total allocations of 856020 crore, HSR & elevated corridor have been allocated 65000 crore

This is a grand total of 7.6% of the total allocations!!!

These are 2015-16 Railway budget highlights. A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then. Contracts for the HSR have been renegotiated. Japan is giving us a soft loan for Rs 88,000 crores at 0.1% for 50 years commencing 2027. The remainder is Rs 13,000 crores that is now required to be included in the 2018-19 Rail budget. So this '65,000 crores' allocated from the Rail budget for the bullet train as mentioned above is factually incorrect.

The bottom line is that apart from the Rs13,000 crores, no money is being allocated from the Rail budget as the Rs 88,000 crores for the HSR is Japanese money not ours!

 

[Kunal Biswas]

About High speed freight corridor ..

 

[Kunal Biswas]

The ES43ACmi (Indian Railways’ class - WDG4G)

The first of 1 000 Evolution Series diesel locomotives which GE Transportation is to supply to Indian Railways over 10 years was unveiled at the manufacturer’s plant at Erie in the USA on June 1.GE Transportation is to supply 700 locos of 4 500 hp and 300 of 6 000 hp under a US$2·6bn joint venture agreement signed with the Ministry of Railways in November 2015, the largest contract ever won by GE in India. They will have Tier 1 GEVO engines.

The first 100 of the twin-cab 1 676 mm gauge locos locomotives are to be exported from the USA complete or in kit form. To meet the requirement for local production under the government’s Make in India programme, the other 900 are to produced with mainly Indian components at a factory which GE is building at Marhowra in Bihar. This is expected to be completed later this year, and will produce two locomotives per week for the current contract.

GE will also develop facilities at Roza in Uttar Pradesh and Gandhidham in Gujarat to support long-term maintenance of the fleet.

GE WDG 4G

 

[Kunal Biswas]

India's most modern rail factory in Raebareli of U.P. Watch this special segment and get to know more here. Zee News always stay ahead in bringing current affairs from all the valley of National interest, Politics, Entertainment, Sports and International happenings. We take you to the depth of every matter by providing every small detail and makes you familiar with all the happening around you. Zee News is the highly popular Hindi News channel of India’s largest television network ZMCL. The channel, which has a huge following in India and abroad, has won several prestigious national and international awards.

 

[Mikesingh]

Why diesel locos? I thought the most efficient method to move rail traffic is with straight electric locomotives. Or diesel electric.

 

[Kunal Biswas]

After Indian Railways signed agreements with Alstom and US-based GE for the manufacturing of electric and diesel locomotives, respectively, Bharat Salhotra, managing director, Alstom India & South Asia, told The Telegraph that the first five electric locomotives were expected to be imported to India.

According to the contract signed, Alstom will manufacture and maintain 800 electric locomotives for Indian Railways between 2018 and 2028.

"The company has received possession of 275 acres from the railways. The construction of the manufacturing plant will start from July this year and will be ready by early 2019. The company will make an investment of Rs 1,509.18 crore for the project in India. The contract includes establishment of a factory at Madhepura, two depots at Nagpur (Maharashtra) and Saharanpur (Uttar Pradesh) and maintenance of the first 500 locomotives," Salhotra said.

 

[tharun]

@Kunal Biswas Bro please share the pdf format of the snapshots of high speed rail posted above

 

[Kunal Biswas]

I don`t have the PDF, Was copying slideshare ..

@Kunal Biswas Bro please share the pdf format of the snapshots of high speed rail posted above

 

[nimo_cn]

Despite these impressive figures, every completed line incurs losses in its first years of operation. The Beijing–Tianjin HSR cost ¥20.42 billion to build and ¥1.8 billion annually to operate, (including ¥0.6 billion in interest payments) and needed to provide 40 million rides a year to reach profitabilty. In its first year, 2008–2009, it carried 18.7 million riders and generated ¥1.1 billion in revenues for a loss of ¥0.7 billion. The next year, ridership rose to 22.3 million and revenues improved to ¥1.4 billion, for a ¥0.5 billion loss. By 2016 it was maxed out, providing 100 million rides–100% capacity–and highly profitable. Construction of a second line has commenced. (WikiVisually).

I just copied the above part from quora. Not sure how adequate the figures are. But if the ridership on this route in china is 100 million / year our HSR will be overbooked.

India by 2023 will be more populated then china . Per capita income will be somewhat similar to Chinese per capita income in 2012-13.

At these levels bullet train will be overbooked. Especially between megacities.

Our maintenance cost will be lower then chinese thanks to high quality of Japanese technology which requires higher initial investment but less maintaining later.

We are actually late to the game. We should have started bullet train construction in 2012-13.
By 2018 it would be operational . Two- three years in losses wouldn't matter in long timespan .

I beg to differ here. the maintenance cost of Indian HSR is expected to be higher because India can't indigenize the manufacturing hence have to import expensive Japanese components. furthermore, indians don't have the experience and expertise, it's likely that you have to hire Japanese to do the maintenance, which will increase the cost further.

 

[mayfair]

I beg to differ here. the maintenance cost of Indian HSR is expected to be higher because India can't indigenize the manufacturing hence have to import expensive Japanese components. furthermore, indians don't have the experience and expertise, it's likely that you have to hire Japanese to do the maintenance, which will increase the cost further.

You started out the same way. Both the components and the know-how will come with time. This is recognised by both the parties, hence the moratorium on payment for the first 15 years and the full payment period being 50 years.

Our Metro projects started the same way, we had foreign consultants, engineers and others at the beginning. As the Indian work force worked with the systems, the dependency reduced. I don't see any reason why this cannot happen with HSR. Taiwan faced a lot of troubles with THR at the beginning, now they are running absolutely fine.