Hatf IX (NASR) ballistic missile

The Fox

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good commentary:

Making Sense of 'Nasr' | Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Making Sense of 'Nasr'


News reports have it that Pakistan has successfully conducted a test of a surface-to-surface short range Hatf IX (Nasr), described as a multi-tube ballistic missile with a 'shoot and scoot' capability. The statement of the Director-General of the Strategic Plans Division, Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, that the flight consolidated Pakistan's strategic deterrence capability at all levels of the threat spectrum indicates that Nasr is nuclear capable.

To Pakistani analyst, Dr. Shireen Mazari, 'It (Nasr) will act as a deterrent against use of mechanised conventional land forces. This was essential in the wake of India's adventurist war-fighting doctrine formulations, which envisaged the use of rapid deployment of armed brigades and divisions in surprise and rapid attacks.' She believes, 'Indian dreams of a limited war against Pakistan through its Cold Start strategy have been laid to rest. This will allow for a reassertion of a stable nuclear deterrence in the region.' This article analyses if Dr. Mazari is right.

Pakistan is the weaker side in the India-Pakistan dyad. Recognising this structural factor, its military, which also runs the state, has been constantly innovative in addressing what it perceives as an asymmetry. It has resorted to external balancing in renting out its strategic location for geopolitical use by external powers. It has forged a close relationship with China to balance India and help China in its strategic purposes in relation to India. For over quarter of a century, it has tried to gain 'depth', forward of its defences, by rendering rear area security problematic for Indian forces through its proxy war. It has attempted internal balancing by reportedly training five lakh irregulars for making India's stabilisation operations untenable, even at the risk and cost of the backlash it is currently enduring. This explains the utilisation of the development of Nasr for purposes beyond merely doctrinal.

Further, Pakistan employs information operations interestingly and to some effect. For instance, it claims to have equalised India's number of nuclear tests at Chagai and insists that these give a variegated capability. It periodically claims success of missile tests from the point of view of deterrence signalling. The Nasr test, for instance, coincided with the launch of corps level Indian military manoeuvres, Exercise Vijayi Bhav, in the Rajasthan deserts. Pakistan's nuclear related rhetoric is also designed to increase the salience of the nuclear overhang and addresses multiple audiences, in particular the US. Its prosecution of operations against the Taliban in FATA and Khyber Pakhtoonwa province has been marked by much sound and fury, particularly with respect to the displacement of people. Its deployment of nationalist strategic analysts to inform, rationalise, legitimise and influence has been proactive. All these resulted in a former US president once famously mistaking South Asia to be the most 'dangerous' place in the world!

This creditable record of information warfare requires to appropriately condition analyses of developments like that of the Nasr. Nasr's flight test had both Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai and Dr. Shireen Mazari giving their opinions. This clearly indicates that even if Nasr is a forbidding reality by itself, the same needs underlining and highlighting for effect. Multiple aims are thus achieved. The purported aim is deterrence, which explains the timing to coincide with the Indian exercise. It could also be to get the US focus back on the eastern front in terms of making the admittedly delicate balance seem untenably unstable, in light of US keenness to get the Pakistani Army take on the Taliban in North Waziristan.

That said, taking Nasr seriously at face-value helps arrive at its actual significance. The development of Nasr indicates that Pakistan views India's Cold Start doctrine with concern. The Nasr is meant to deter India's launch of Cold Start. Since Nasr is reportedly nuclear capable, short range and light weight, it could imply the use of tactical nuclear weapons were such a conflict to occur. Fearing a lower nuclear threshold, implied by availability of tactical nuclear weapons, India may be deterred from embarking on Cold Start. This would enable Pakistan to recreate the space it once had for continuing its prosecution of proxy war - a space that has been constricted by India's formulation of a Cold Start doctrine, even though all the components of the doctrine such as weapons acquisitions, relocation of formations and change to a manoeuvre war culture are not yet entirely in place.

It has been assessed that Pakistani reliance on its nuclear cover would increase with India's increasing felicity with Limited War doctrine. Pakistan is reportedly ahead of India in numbers of nuclear warheads and in a more variegated missile delivery capability. This, to one analyst, spells a strategy of 'asymmetric escalation'. In the Pakistani logic, nuclear deterrence is also to operate at the conventional level. Nasr, to Dr. Mazari, makes for deterrence stability since it helps strengthen this dimension of nuclear stability. Dr. Mazari is right on deterrence stability, but gets her reason wrong - the reference to Cold Start being anachronistic.

India's Army Chief has indicated that no such doctrine exists. It appears that the Indian military is looking to respond to subconventional provocations at the same level. This may be in the form of surgical strikes, Special Forces operations, border skirmishes, activation of the Line of Control, select punitive operations, etc. The Indian intent will be to convey a message of resolve as well as to punish and cause selective attrition. And the aim would be to address Pakistani cost-benefit calculations in such a manner as to coerce Pakistan into limiting its provocation below India's 'level of tolerance'. Such a course of action by India has internal political utility in letting off steam in terms of 'something' being done. It is also decidedly less expensive, preserving India's grand strategy of economic rise from being unnecessarily buffeted.

The Indian move away from a default resort to Limited War places the onus of escalation on Pakistan. India's conventional capability is to ensure that Pakistani reaction to such subconventional retribution is non-escalatory. Should Pakistan try to respond with conventional action, that would provoke a 'Cold Start' by India. Pakistan would thus be placed a second time round in a position of decision to escalate, this time by using Nasr. The prospects of Pakistan's self-deterrence under such circumstances are higher. In the event, Pakistan will be forced to react defensively to India's 'contingency' operations.

In case push comes to shove and Pakistan does resort to the use of Nasr, then this would more likely be on its own territory, rather than provocatively on Indian launch pads close to the border. India's promised retaliation may not then necessarily be along the lines of its nuclear doctrine of 'massive' punitive retaliation (strategy having the privilege of departing from doctrine). The net result would be further nuclear impact(s) on Pakistani territory. {It seems to be hinting towards TNW used by India}

In other words, stability reigns not due to India being deterred, but Pakistan being self-deterred. Accountability for initiating both the conflict and a possible nuclear conflict would rest with the Pakistani military. The aftermath would surely find it decisively pushed off its commanding perch in Pakistan by an angered people.

In rethinking Cold Start as a default option and working towards proactive 'contingency' options, India is a step ahead in doctrinal shadow boxing. It appears to be playing by Schelling's concept of Limited War as a 'bargaining' process:

'It is in wars that we have come to call 'limited wars' that the bargaining appears most vividly and is conducted most consciously. The critical targets in such a war are the mind of the enemy"¦the threat of violence in reserve is more important than the commitment of force in the field"¦ And, like any bargaining situation, a restrained war involves some degree of collaboration between adversaries.' (Schelling, Arms and Influence (1966).

The challenge in South Asia is to ensure that the contest remains at the doctrinal level. Keeping it so entails getting into a doctrinal dialogue with Pakistan so that the 'collaboration', mentioned by Schelling, can be from a mutually intelligible script.
one more thing i would like to bring it to the notice of those who worship NASR nuclear attack on indian troops inside the country or outside the country is a direct attack on india and will be retaliated with nuke
 

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one more thing i would like to bring it to the notice of those who worship NASR nuclear attack on indian troops inside the country or outside the country is a direct attack on india and will be retaliated with nuke
Exactly. I think these stupid pakistani strategic planners should understand that there are no tactical nukes, there are only strategic nukes. Using tactical nukes is suicide.
 

sayareakd

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first lets them induct NASR, then let them test miniature nuke that can fit into NASR tube. It may also happen that they will launch NASR towards our tanks in cold start and we will get their non functional nuke, our guys repair it and then attack Pakistan with same nuke.
 

Apollyon

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You guys really think Pakistan have the ability to develop a relatively "small" tactical nuke ? :pound::rofl::laugh:
 

Kunal Biswas

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one more thing i would like to bring it to the notice of those who worship NASR nuclear attack on indian troops inside the country or outside the country is a direct attack on india and will be retaliated with nuke
Indian forces have capability that they Launch Vehicles wont able to fire coz they are too close to Indian border, Run on high level detection..

If fire it will be shot down in middle of its flight..

IA and IAF have eough precision munition that we never have to use nukes, The whole PA and PAF will be destroyed within hours of full scale attack..
 

A chauhan

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You guys really think Pakistan have the ability to develop a relatively "small" tactical nuke ? :pound::rofl::laugh:
Naah :lol:

Nasr is more like a bluff to avoid the 'cold start' , actually Pakis are afraid of cold start. :nod:
 

The Fox

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Indian forces have capability that they Launch Vehicles wont able to fire coz they are too close to Indian border, Run on high level detection..

If fire it will be shot down in middle of its flight..

IA and IAF have eough precision munition that we never have to use nukes, The whole PA and PAF will be destroyed within hours of full scale attack..
how about prahar and where does this come into nuke deterrence and more over i do understand india will use it as unconventional weapons but i am sure it is not a Ballistic missile
thank you
 

The Fox

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Naah :lol:

Nasr is more like a bluff to avoid the 'cold start' , actually Pakis are afraid of cold start. :nod:
most probably u are correct just like the infamous comment of Zia that pak is just a screwdriver turn away from creating a nuke weapon and that stopped india from attacking in the 80's
 

Kunal Biswas

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how about prahar and where does this come into nuke deterrence and more over i do understand india will use it as unconventional weapons but i am sure it is not a Ballistic missile thank you
Weapon range under 100kms can be countered by coordination between different surveillance assets and fire support assets..


Surveillance:

1. Satellites: Geo-stationary spy satellite gives min to min coverage of battle field..
2. UAV : Variety of UAV from hand-held drowns flying kms away and to heroin Male UAV to hundred for surveillance, they can take photos 100km inside enemy one from inside our own borders..

3. IAF recon Aircrafts with Surveillance Pods..
4. Ground Intelligence inside enemy zone..
5. Ground Movement radars of army..

---------------------------------------------------------

Arty:

a > Guns: Indian have precision guided 155mm Shells ranges of 56km, there are special rounds which can engage targets at 65-70km by normal 155mm x 45cal gun..

b > BM-30 MBRL: Can fire 300mm rockets till 90kms away, You can use special rockets..

-------------------------------------

Cruise Missile:

PJ-10: With range of 290km it can be configured to attack mobile as well as static nuclear assets..

------------------------------------

Helicopters:

Armed with new generation NAMICA can preform deep strike penetration missions..


-----------------------------------

Akash Missiles & Barak 8:

If launched it can detect and can shoot down such small targets wihin 30kms zone, With induction of Barak 8, It can engage targets withing 120kms range, Indian have plans to make his own tactical BMD of 300kms..

------------------------------------
------------------------------------

IAF fighters can reach such targets within few mins, And can Drop LGB even cluster bombs..

PA dont have any good mobile SAM system to engage high altitude fighters only PAF is there..

-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------
--------------------------------------

Bottom line is IA and IAF have enough precision munition that can severely immobilize PA and PAF so does PN, Cut the head from the body approach will reduce reaction time and within that time one can fully exploit the confusion in enemy and finishing them is easy..
 

farhan_9909

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Weapon range under 100kms can be countered by coordination between different surveillance assets and fire support assets..


Surveillance:

1. Satellites: Geo-stationary spy satellite gives min to min coverage of battle field..
2. UAV : Variety of UAV from hand-held drowns flying kms away and to heroin Male UAV to hundred for surveillance, they can take photos 100km inside enemy one from inside our own borders..

3. IAF recon Aircrafts with Surveillance Pods..
4. Ground Intelligence inside enemy zone..
5. Ground Movement radars of army..

---------------------------------------------------------

Arty:

a > Guns: Indian have precision guided 155mm Shells ranges of 56km, there are special rounds which can engage targets at 65-70km by normal 155mm x 45cal gun..

b > BM-30 MBRL: Can fire 300mm rockets till 90kms away, You can use special rockets..

-------------------------------------

Cruise Missile:

PJ-10: With range of 290km it can be configured to attack mobile as well as static nuclear assets..

------------------------------------

Helicopters:

Armed with new generation NAMICA can preform deep strike penetration missions..


-----------------------------------

Akash Missiles & Barak 8:

If launched it can detect and can shoot down such small targets wihin 30kms zone, With induction of Barak 8, It can engage targets withing 120kms range, Indian have plans to make his own tactical BMD of 300kms..

------------------------------------
------------------------------------

IAF fighters can reach such targets within few mins, And can Drop LGB even cluster bombs..

PA dont have any good mobile SAM system to engage high altitude fighters only PAF is there..

-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------
--------------------------------------

Bottom line is IA and IAF have enough precision munition that can severely immobilize PA and PAF so does PN, Cut the head from the body approach will reduce reaction time and within that time one can fully exploit the confusion in enemy and finishing them is easy..
i Am sure your armed forces think tanks doesnt think that stupid
 

farhan_9909

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nasr holds a records at media level

Atleast 300 articles were published about nasr in Indian media

they are concerned about a 60km missile
 

sayareakd

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nasr holds a records at media level

Atleast 300 articles were published about nasr in Indian media

they are concerned about a 60km missile
Lol think it like this media dont have anything better to post that is why Nasr, good example is India heroin posted for playboy, rid not make much news, as media was busy with other stories, when nothing happen she said i said i sleep for money still nothing happen. Our media is free and Nasr rocket is just time pass for them.
 

sayareakd

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I think some people in India wants Pakistan to use Nasr with nukes on our forces so that we can take out and finish Pakistan from the world, with this excuse. I am sure Pakistan will use its nuke wisely, i dont think Pak will get second chance to use it.
 

A chauhan

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I think some people in India wants Pakistan to use Nasr with nukes on our forces so that we can take out and finish Pakistan from the world, with this excuse. I am sure Pakistan will use its nuke wisely, i dont think Pak will get second chance to use it.
Yes saya, I think they will probably use it when IA will be 70 to 80 kms away from their cities, because once IA enters they wont be able to use Nasr in their own cities, and if they let IA come around 50 kms then they will have a reason to fire nukes on Indian cities, it's a thin line, they can't move Nasr inside India territories as Indian missiles will take them out. So it's better for them to keep Nasr at home, but if they use it, their cities will be completely nuked by India, what a dilemma for Pakis :lol:

What I mean, it is totally useless ! can only be used against a non-nuclear country.
 
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Daredevil

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nasr holds a records at media level

Atleast 300 articles were published about nasr in Indian media

they are concerned about a 60km missile
It holds a record because of the stupidity that Nasr missiles stands for. Nobody is concerned with your piddly Nasr missile. Pakistan will be at great disadvantage it it wants to use nukes using Nasr.
 

farhan_9909

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wiping out Pakistan lol

this is Pakistan who is always into nuclear war.
We have clearly shown you guys that we will use nuclear be it in the shape of nasr the After kargil or in 2001-02

beside this as per Indian own nuclear scientist the pokhran were more of an failure


nasr confirm that we can even make a sub kiloton warhead
 

farhan_9909

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I think some people in India wants Pakistan to use Nasr with nukes on our forces so that we can take out and finish Pakistan from the world, with this excuse. I am sure Pakistan will use its nuke wisely, i dont think Pak will get second chance to use it.
they dont need to

because Pakistan will use nuclear in any conflict
 

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wiping out Pakistan lol

this is Pakistan who is always into nuclear war.
We have clearly shown you guys that we will use nuclear be it in the shape of nasr the After kargil or in 2001-02

beside this as per Indian own nuclear scientist the pokhran were more of an failure


nasr confirm that we can even make a sub kiloton warhead
Hatf is a failure at the get go because in a nuclear war there are no tactical nukes only strategic nukes. What is the point of using such a small range, piddly nuke when the response for any nuke (small or big) will be devastating for the Pakistan. That's why Nasr missiles objective is a big failure. I wonder who is the headless chicken who came up with Nasr idea :D
 

farhan_9909

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and so is the Prahaar than

well the nasr would be the start followed by many big brothers


India will get max damage

more population density so more humans kill
economy directly into Sudan level
population decrease from 1.2 billion to just 2 millions

while May be you guys succeed in a few major cities to nuke them
 

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