Global Think tank discussions on India & neighbourhood

[ezsasa]

When the supposed strategic researchers/analysts have such narrow view of ground realities of the country they are supposed to be expert in, you have to wonder what else are they wrong about the country they are supposed to be expert in !!!
Because some of their policy recommendations do end become policy or basis of a foreign policy.
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Ah, but have they jailed a comedian for a joke he hasn't told? Or arrested someone with 10 followers because a minister's son's feelings were hurt?

Sadly, this is one area where India at times seems "like minded" with China

 

[Okabe Rintarou]

This isn't exactly a "Global think tank" discussion, but the reason I am mentioning it here is a particular phrase that I think we ought to adopt in our vocabulary when describing our Strategic Vision.


This new phrase is "Balance of Anxiety". We usually only talk about striking a "Balance of Power". But we need stuff that can strike a Balance of Anxiety, especially vis-a-vis China. Against Pakistan, the Balance of Anxiety is largely tilted to our favour. Which is why when the Pakistanis sweat profusely on our muscle flexing, we say "yeh dar acha laga". That is balance of anxiety and we need to develop it first against China and then against USA.

The day we start to develop a "balance of anxiety" against USA (starting from bringing them under our ICBM range) will be the day they'll start considering us as the next big challenger to their supremacy. But that will happen either way, even if we put it off, because once China gets taken care off, we are next on USA's list. In fact, if G2 happens before that, we'll suddenly find ourselves on top of that list.

 

[IndianHawk]

This isn't exactly a "Global think tank" discussion, but the reason I am mentioning it here is a particular phrase that I think we ought to adopt in our vocabulary when describing our Strategic Vision.


This new phrase is "Balance of Anxiety". We usually only talk about striking a "Balance of Power". But we need stuff that can strike a Balance of Anxiety, especially vis-a-vis China. Against Pakistan, the Balance of Anxiety is largely tilted to our favour. Which is why when the Pakistanis sweat profusely on our muscle flexing, we say "yeh dar acha laga". That is balance of anxiety and we need to develop it first against China and then against USA.

The day we start to develop a "balance of anxiety" against USA (starting from bringing them under our ICBM range) will be the day they'll start considering us as the next big challenger to their supremacy. But that will happen either way, even if we put it off, because once China gets taken care off, we are next on USA's list. In fact, if G2 happens before that, we'll suddenly find ourselves on top of that list.

When we will overtake China we would have already overtake usa long ago.

That's why usa needs us now. China has already surpassed usa in gdp ppp . We will surpass usa in gdp ppp somewhere between 2035-40.

And at that time china will be 2 times larger than usa. So usa will very much need to be good side of India if it ever wants to remain any sort of influence in Asia.

So the game is set in such a way that usa will lose it either way it plays. That's why it's called asian century.

And it's not just china and india other asian powers will rise too most importantly Indonesia which will surpass many European economies in next 2 decades.

 

[Okabe Rintarou]

When we will overtake China we would have already overtake usa long ago.

That's why usa needs us now. China has already surpassed usa in gdp ppp . We will surpass usa in gdp ppp somewhere between 2035-40.

And at that time china will be 2 times larger than usa. So usa will very much need to be good side of India if it ever wants to remain any sort of influence in Asia.

So the game is set in such a way that usa will lose it either way it plays. That's why it's called asian century.

And it's not just china and india other asian powers will rise too most importantly Indonesia which will surpass many European economies in next 2 decades.

The real threat is emergence of a G2 group of China and USA. China and USA are geographically far apart (hence a lot of buffer areas between them). China and India share a border. China knows that India will one day be a bigger economy than USA and in the long run could overtake China. Which is why, if China cuts a deal to form a G2, it will be with the USA, not with India. And if USA knows its losing, then either way, it will choose to go with the bigger power: China. Its not going to choose India just because we are a democracy. Choosing China means USA will remain number 2 as they both will push India down. Choosing India means they will be number 3 in the long run.

Not to mention the fact that USA's military technological might and edge will not fade before the end of this century at least.

We should strive to become strong enough to be able to strike true fear in the hearts of our enemies.

 

[IndianHawk]

The real threat is emergence of a G2 group of China and USA. China and USA are geographically far apart (hence a lot of buffer areas between them). China and India share a border. China knows that India will one day be a bigger economy than USA and in the long run could overtake China. Which is why, if China cuts a deal to form a G2, it will be with the USA, not with India. And if USA knows its losing, then either way, it will choose to go with the bigger power: China. Its not going to choose India just because we are a democracy. Choosing China means USA will remain number 2 as they both will push India down. Choosing India means they will be number 3 in the long run.

Not to mention the fact that USA's military technological might and edge will not fade before the end of this century at least.

We should strive to become strong enough to be able to strike true fear in the hearts of our enemies.

Just like india and china enmity stems from a land border , china and usa enmity stems out of sharing of Pacific Ocean.

Chinese directly threaten usa influence over not only Asia but also on Pacific. A china stronger than usa would be influencing entire north and south america. And Oceania throw in Russia with them and usa will loose all advantage in Pacific.

India only threatens usa influence in Asia middle East and South East.

Again south east asia usa will lose influence to china ( already happening) and in middle East usa is no longer dependent on thier oil. Oil itself will become insignificant in next 2 decades thanks to electrical revolution and so will be gone petro dollar ans usa will not give a damn about middle East anymore.

So overall usa looses lot more bowing to china then working with India.

That's why the indo Pacific concept so that both India and usa can together gain influence despite a massive china in the middle .

 

[Okabe Rintarou]

Just like india and china enmity stems from a land border , china and usa enmity stems out of sharing of Pacific Ocean.

Chinese directly threaten usa influence over not only Asia but also on Pacific. A china stronger than usa would be influencing entire north and south america. And Oceania throw in Russia with them and usa will loose all advantage in Pacific.

India only threatens usa influence in Asia middle East and South East.

Again south east asia usa will lose influence to china ( already happening) and in middle East usa is no longer dependent on thier oil. Oil itself will become insignificant in next 2 decades thanks to electrical revolution and so will be gone petro dollar ans usa will not give a damn about middle East anymore.

So overall usa looses lot more bowing to china then working with India.

That's why the indo Pacific concept so that both India and usa can together gain influence despite a massive china in the middle .

Right. And this is the only reason why G2 hasn't formed yet. But with US being overrun by the Liberandus, a lot of these conventional calculations could go wrong. Call me paranoid, but I am very afraid of a worst case scenario for us that is the G2. Hopefully we can maintain status quo for a couple more decades. After that, we'll be powerful enough to take on a G2 without getting one-shot by them. Till that time, my anxiety will remain.

 

[IndianHawk]

We should strive to become strong enough to be able to strike true fear in the hearts of our enemies.

This part I agree with and onus is upon us. We need full fledged icbm and need to enlarge our nuke arsenal to ensure proper MAD. We need atleast thousand nukes ready to destroy enemy nation in entirety.

Nukes are how a weak hollowed and small russia can still get away while standing up to usa.

 

[IndianHawk]

Right. And this is the only reason why G2 hasn't formed yet. But with US being overrun by the Liberandus, a lot of these conventional calculations could go wrong. Call me paranoid, but I am very afraid of a worst case scenario for us that is the G2. Hopefully we can maintain status quo for a couple more decades. After that, we'll be powerful enough to take on a G2 without getting one-shot by them. Till that time, my anxiety will remain.

Liberandu have wanted G2 for long time. But they miscalculated china badly. China is not interested in sharing power with a weak usa. It only wanted G2 to bide it's time.

Chinese ideology is Beijing at the centre of universe .
Everyone else is a vessel state to Beijing. That's why chinese are incapable of forming alliances. That's why they have no friends other than north korea and Pakistan.

Anyway we have nothing to fear so long we have strong nuclear deterrence our securty will remain unaffected G2 or not.

The only way G2 hurts us is by slowing down are economic growth but that too will not be very effective as other powers which are rising will seek india to counterbalance such G2. ( Japan , Indonesia , Europe , russia) comes to mind.

We will be fine and ultimately biggest and most powerful nation on this planet.

 

[Maharaj samudragupt]

Liberandu have wanted G2 for long time. But they miscalculated china badly. China is not interested in sharing power with a weak usa. It only wanted G2 to bide it's time.

Chinese ideology is Beijing at the centre of universe .
Everyone else is a vessel state to Beijing. That's why chinese are incapable of forming alliances. That's why they have no friends other than north korea and Pakistan.

Anyway we have nothing to fear so long we have strong nuclear deterrence our securty will remain unaffected G2 or not.

The only way G2 hurts us is by slowing down are economic growth but that too will not be very effective as other powers which are rising will seek india to counterbalance such G2. ( Japan , Indonesia , Europe , russia) comes to mind.

We will be fine and ultimately biggest and most powerful nation on this planet.

Amrikiya didn't see what chene done with india in 62 after wholw decade of 50s went in singing hulla hulla of mutual respect between India and chene

 

[Indx TechStyle]

This isn't exactly a "Global think tank" discussion, but the reason I am mentioning it here is a particular phrase that I think we ought to adopt in our vocabulary when describing our Strategic Vision.


This new phrase is "Balance of Anxiety". We usually only talk about striking a "Balance of Power". But we need stuff that can strike a Balance of Anxiety, especially vis-a-vis China. Against Pakistan, the Balance of Anxiety is largely tilted to our favour. Which is why when the Pakistanis sweat profusely on our muscle flexing, we say "yeh dar acha laga". That is balance of anxiety and we need to develop it first against China and then against USA.

The day we start to develop a "balance of anxiety" against USA (starting from bringing them under our ICBM range) will be the day they'll start considering us as the next big challenger to their supremacy. But that will happen either way, even if we put it off, because once China gets taken care off, we are next on USA's list. In fact, if G2 happens before that, we'll suddenly find ourselves on top of that list.

When we will overtake China we would have already overtake usa long ago.

That's why usa needs us now. China has already surpassed usa in gdp ppp . We will surpass usa in gdp ppp somewhere between 2035-40.

And at that time china will be 2 times larger than usa. So usa will very much need to be good side of India if it ever wants to remain any sort of influence in Asia.

So the game is set in such a way that usa will lose it either way it plays. That's why it's called asian century.

And it's not just china and india other asian powers will rise too most importantly Indonesia which will surpass many European economies in next 2 decades.

The real threat is emergence of a G2 group of China and USA. China and USA are geographically far apart (hence a lot of buffer areas between them). China and India share a border. China knows that India will one day be a bigger economy than USA and in the long run could overtake China. Which is why, if China cuts a deal to form a G2, it will be with the USA, not with India. And if USA knows its losing, then either way, it will choose to go with the bigger power: China. Its not going to choose India just because we are a democracy. Choosing China means USA will remain number 2 as they both will push India down. Choosing India means they will be number 3 in the long run.

Not to mention the fact that USA's military technological might and edge will not fade before the end of this century at least.

We should strive to become strong enough to be able to strike true fear in the hearts of our enemies.

@ezsasa
Are there any academic articles by Indian analysts available about G2?

 

[ezsasa]

@ezsasa
Are there any academic articles by Indian analysts available about G2?

Not in my memory, will post if anything comes across.

 

[HawkisRight]

@ezsasa
Are there any academic articles by Indian analysts available about G2?

World power order will be China-US duopoly; in this G2 world, here is what India must do

Xi and Trump understand that for the foreseeable future, the world power order will be a Sino-American duopoly.

www.financialexpress.com

India, America, China: Three nations and a world to win

Barack Obama's upcoming visit to India puts into focus the dynamics between the three key nations in the world: Tiger (India), Eagle (USA) and Dragon (China).

www.hindustantimes.com

Not detailed but basic stuff vis G2

 

[HawkisRight]

Two's Company

To the Editor: Like most critics of the idea of a G-2 made up of the United States and China, an idea that I initiated in my book The United States and the World Economy, published in 2005, and was publicized most widely in these pages ("A Partnership of Equals," July/August 2008), Elizabeth...

www.foreignaffairs.com

Idea of G2

 

[HawkisRight]

India, China and the United States: The Triangle That Isn’t | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

At the outset, I should like to clarify that I am not going to theorize or build models on global or regional international relations. I am also not going to speak on India and China as such as I have already spoken on it at some length some months ago at the Indian Council of World Affairs. If...

idsa.in

Detailed analysis in IDSA..not directed G2 analysis but a pov around same theme..

 

[IndianHawk]

@ezsasa
Are there any academic articles by Indian analysts available about G2?

Group of Two - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Group of Two - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Yes, I have to expand this article, that's why asking.

 

[IndianHawk]

Yes, I have to expand this article, that's why asking.

Then you will have to search along chimerica and view of Henry Kissinger on us china relationship. That's where you may find something solid.

 

[ezsasa]

Fairly accurate summary from Frank Wisner on china from an American POV, talk is mostly about china and only a tiny bit about India inspite of the title of the video.
But unfortunately the usual blah blah blah about freedom house's recent india rating.

He is advocating what is essentially a cold war with china.
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India & South Asia with Frank Wisner

 

[cannonfodder]

^^ They have to fight an cold war with their own corporations first.

 

[ezsasa]

Whatever they are saying will make sense to us only after 10 years i guess.
- U.S Army seem to be focussed on pacific part of Indo-pacific, not much thinking happening on indo side of things.
- They seem be planning for mega cities as battlefields as well.
- New Long range strike weapons to take out the archer, not just focussing on the arrows.
- Creation of protective bubbles for forward troops inside enemy territory.
- New Vertical lift long range airlift capability.
- two brigades training in arctic.
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The Army in the Indo-Pacific: A Conversation with General James McConville and General Paul LaCamera