At this point, the Jury is still out on what the IAF will buy for strategic airlifts.
The C-130 will most likely be complemented by the Brazilian Embraer C-390 as Brazil has made a formal offer to the IAF and has shown interest in formally joining the project. C-390 is in the same league as C-130 but has a greater payload and range, a more modern design, and is already serving the Brazilian and Portuguese military.
As for the replacement of Il-76, there are only 3 platforms currently that can be considered:
- Buy the An-70 design from Ukraine and work with Russia to make it for us (very unlikely)
- Buy the Kawasaki C-2 from Japan as it is now formally on offer to the international market (30% chance)
- Buy the Airbus A400M from France outright (70% chance)
The C-17 is no longer an option as the production line is over and Boeing will unlikely pass the design to us, as they will most likely be designing a successor.
It would make sense to join the Brazilians for the medium-lift C-390 project while collaborating with Japan for C-2.
This would allow us to move conventionally away from traditional power and suppliers namely the traditional eastern/western partners.