FOREIGN POLICY: New, Strong and Clear Outreach

Indrajit

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“At the end of the day, it is about competing systems, i.e. democracies versus autocracies.” As Western democracies grow increasingly autocratic to prevent themselves from ceding three centuries of global hegemony to Asia, the contest becomes less about values and more about control. History and the present are both replete with examples of cooperation between democracies and authoritarian states. In fact, this moral flexibility lies at the core of Western foreign policy. Possibly the only values that realistically matter involve honoring financial and legal contracts, and even those have been put into question with the West’s seizure of Russia’s foreign reserves. From a geographical standpoint, it is not a question of if but when the Western Pacific will see a tight contest between China and the US. Europe already feels the heat from the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East is rocked by the presence of Iranian proxies. Fast forward to 2035-40 when there is a genuine possibility that an independent-minded India has arrived on the global stage. With a GDP of $10-15T, it would spend up to $400B a year on its military. As a result, it may have the capability of denying maritime access in the IOR, although it would not find the need to exercise it unless threatened. Combine this with a scenario in which China, Russia and Iran stand decidedly against the West, much as they do today. It not only dents the influence the Five Eyes historically enjoyed over the Eurasian continent but also risks permanently weakening the West’s collective economic leverage. The broader implications for their own over-leveraged, consumption-led economic model would be material if not systemic. To mitigate the immediate risk, collaboration makes sense. Cooperating with India momentarily offers part of the solution to what the West sees as the “China problem.” But this is not shorn of a deep-seated need to control India’s rise. By penetrating the country’s institutions, influencing its society, controlling its domestic narratives and extracting a pound of flesh for every deal that brings India something it does not indigenously have or know, the perfect set-up for a rug-pull gets built. Nothing short of a pliant and by definition debilitated India would suit the Five Eyes in the long run. The seeds of this weakness are being sown even while the scope of cooperation in areas of converging interests expands. Confrontation with the Five Eyes was no doubt inevitable as New Delhi sees itself exposed to new risks. Avoiding confrontation entirely depends on strategic partners seeking partnership over dominance, and that does not and will not fit the interests of the Five Eyes looking into 2030s and beyond. Of course, isolating areas where partners can be treated as equals is effective diplomacy. Seeking balance and extracting value through it characterizes India’s foreign policy in many ways. Power is never shared. It is carefully built by protecting oneself against threats, developing leverage over friends and foes alike, and eventually seizing opportunities that can multiply one’s capabilities. In this context, if India aspires to be a great power, it cannot avoid periods of confrontation with the Five Eyes.



This was on reply to an article by former CoAS Gen. Naravane.

 

shade

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“At the end of the day, it is about competing systems, i.e. democracies versus autocracies.” As Western democracies grow increasingly autocratic to prevent themselves from ceding three centuries of global hegemony to Asia, the contest becomes less about values and more about control. History and the present are both replete with examples of cooperation between democracies and authoritarian states. In fact, this moral flexibility lies at the core of Western foreign policy. Possibly the only values that realistically matter involve honoring financial and legal contracts, and even those have been put into question with the West’s seizure of Russia’s foreign reserves. From a geographical standpoint, it is not a question of if but when the Western Pacific will see a tight contest between China and the US. Europe already feels the heat from the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East is rocked by the presence of Iranian proxies. Fast forward to 2035-40 when there is a genuine possibility that an independent-minded India has arrived on the global stage. With a GDP of $10-15T, it would spend up to $400B a year on its military. As a result, it may have the capability of denying maritime access in the IOR, although it would not find the need to exercise it unless threatened. Combine this with a scenario in which China, Russia and Iran stand decidedly against the West, much as they do today. It not only dents the influence the Five Eyes historically enjoyed over the Eurasian continent but also risks permanently weakening the West’s collective economic leverage. The broader implications for their own over-leveraged, consumption-led economic model would be material if not systemic. To mitigate the immediate risk, collaboration makes sense. Cooperating with India momentarily offers part of the solution to what the West sees as the “China problem.” But this is not shorn of a deep-seated need to control India’s rise. By penetrating the country’s institutions, influencing its society, controlling its domestic narratives and extracting a pound of flesh for every deal that brings India something it does not indigenously have or know, the perfect set-up for a rug-pull gets built. Nothing short of a pliant and by definition debilitated India would suit the Five Eyes in the long run. The seeds of this weakness are being sown even while the scope of cooperation in areas of converging interests expands. Confrontation with the Five Eyes was no doubt inevitable as New Delhi sees itself exposed to new risks. Avoiding confrontation entirely depends on strategic partners seeking partnership over dominance, and that does not and will not fit the interests of the Five Eyes looking into 2030s and beyond. Of course, isolating areas where partners can be treated as equals is effective diplomacy. Seeking balance and extracting value through it characterizes India’s foreign policy in many ways. Power is never shared. It is carefully built by protecting oneself against threats, developing leverage over friends and foes alike, and eventually seizing opportunities that can multiply one’s capabilities. In this context, if India aspires to be a great power, it cannot avoid periods of confrontation with the Five Eyes.



This was on reply to an article by former CoAS Gen. Naravane.

Good write-up by this nibbiar but with one mistake where he expects them to go after us in the future while they are going after us right now, however currently it's only to get our govt to bend the knee and they aren't going for the throat by promoting civil war or balkanization or applying Russia-style sanctions.
 

ezsasa

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milan vaishnaw atleast got one original analysis to his credit, in 2019 the one about rahul gandhi's beard.

other than the one below, did dhume ever get any analysis right that can solely be attributed to him. he's been in business for more than 15 years now.
=====
Sweetest gig in journalism: Get paid to write the SAME column about India 10 times a year.
 

DingDong

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milan vaishnaw atleast got one original analysis to his credit, in 2019 the one about rahul gandhi's beard.

other than the one below, did dhume ever get any analysis right that can solely be attributed to him. he's been in business for more than 15 years now.
=====
Sweetest gig in journalism: Get paid to write the SAME column about India 10 times a year.
He cannot be credited with this wisdom either. If I remember correctly, Barkha Dutt wrote an opinion piece in the Washington Post a year back stating how attacking India on the issues of Human Rights and Democracy will be counter-productive and it will only strengthen Modi's grip over the voters.

From this (talking about media-created narratives):

In India, 75 years after independence, democracy dies in prime time

To this: :pound:

The best way to strengthen India’s democracy? Leave it to the Indians.

Sorry, America. India will never be your ally.
 

ezsasa

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He cannot be credited with this wisdom either. If I remember correctly, Barkha Dutt wrote an opinion piece in the Washington Post a year back stating how attacking India on the issues of Human Rights and Democracy will be counter-productive and it will only strengthen Modi's grip over the voters.

From this (talking about media-created narratives):

In India, 75 years after independence, democracy dies in prime time

To this: :pound:

The best way to strengthen India’s democracy? Leave it to the Indians.
Sorry, America. India will never be your ally.
incidentally was just watching this video..
our lutyens wallahs are having a nice little echo chamber scam going on in U.S :pound:
======
“Lecturing India on human rights won’t work”, says Ro Khanna
 

Anupu

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Biggest problem with the progressives in the west today is their lack of understanding of their limitations.
 

DingDong

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>Throw a lifeline to Russia
Anything apart from their German Shepherd style breaking of relations won't satisfy this pus-skinned lot now won't it?

If both India and China had the balls to give #PhullSappot to Russia the Rooskies would be in Lviv today
A prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict is good for India. It removes lot of geopolitical pressure from us and shifts NATO's and other military alliances' focus from the India's neighborhood back to Europe and elsewhere.

India has been economically benefiting from the sanctions. The conflict also allows India to act decisively in her neighborhood without risking any external intervention.

A prolonged Ukraine conflict also reduces the chance of Russia-China acting together in contrary to India's interests in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Central Asia.

Russia's Ukraine misadventure serves as a reminder for the rest who are dreaming to forcefully grab the external territories. It is not like China and Russia have sorted out all their differences, hence there is a limitation to China's support for Russia.
 

shade

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A prolonged Ukraine conflict also reduces the chance of Russia-China acting together in contrary to India's interests in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Central Asia.
It increases the chances because Russia will come out of this as a Chinese vassal state till the West requires use of Russia once again

Russia's Ukraine misadventure serves as a reminder for the rest who are dreaming to forcefully grab the external territories. It is not like China and Russia have sorted out all their differences, hence there is a limitation to China's support for Russia.
Their support is "limited" only because they fear the danda of sanctions to their export-oriented economy.
However their support is more broad based than our "we buy cheap oil saar".

This is inspite of the tons of economic and industrial leverage they have on the West, Xi Jinpig is waiting for "Dual Circulation Economy" to complete, this is Chinese for reconfiguring the economy to be domestic consumption dependent and not export-oriented.

At the end of the day this is the copium for this chinkus like for us it's "Bros, wait for India to become X Trillion $ economy, phir denge pakiyo aur cheeniyo ko muh tod jawab".

It's also why Shyam Kaka engages in regime change ungli with us, they know that the Middle Kingdom eunuchs will not grab Taiwan till their economy is hardened to any sanctions based shocks.

At the end of the day most countries are eunuchs and only Russia is chad(or mad) enough to grab Ukraine by the pucci and end up getting peppersprayed for it :bplease:
 

Arjun Mk1A

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Hmm. Actually good to see BRICS Games. Our athletes may get a chance to play against Chinese and Russian athletes. Good exposure. Also it is an Multi sport event.

Cons, We failed to push Field Hockey, Cricket, kabbadi from our side. Should push it as U-17 format.

But better than shitty Commonwealth where each year every valid sport will be removed and some irrelevant things were added.
 
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ezsasa

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will put this here, since strategy sounds familiar..
our electoral politics does not allow for such statements to be made by the government, but saudis can.
notice how patient they are willing to be, to get a favourable outcome.
=======
Thus, the Saudi Foreign Minister exposed Qatar’s support for terrorism. Qatar is the head of the snake and must be cut off

 

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