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Tim Wigmore
Tim Wigmore is a freelance journalist, and has written for Coffee House, The New Statesman, The Independent and Cricinfo. He blogs mainly on British and American politics and cricket, and tweets @Timwig
One hundred days after Sandy Hook, five reasons why US gun control will fail
It's now more than 100 days since the Sandy Hook shooting at an elementary school in Newton, Connecticut. The families of the victims have argued passionately for increased gun control, which has more support among the American public than for decades. Yet US gun laws may barely be changed by Sandy Hook at all. Last week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid put a series of gun-related bills onto the legislative calendar, which will be addressed after Congress's two-week Easter break. It is on these that prospects for gun control rest – and they're not very good.
Already, it is certain that an assaults weapon ban will not pass, with Reid saying that fewer than 40 Senators supported it. The debate has now moved onto a universal background check system, stricter federal laws on gun trafficking and provisions to improve school safety.
The most important of these measures – a universal background check system – may well fail too. Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer and Republican Senator Tom Coburn are negotiating a deal on it, and agree on the merits of a background check. The problem is that Coburn refuses to accept a system of comprehensive record keeping. Instead, he proposes an expensive system of federal agents conducting stings to ensure that gun sellers are conducting background checks. If the Democrats reject this, the measure could collapse completely.
So gun reformers may not succeed in changing gun laws post-Sandy Hook. That's despite unrelenting pressure from campaigners, including from Slate's gun death tracker (3,000 gun deaths since Newtown, and counting). Support for reform is at historically high levels – 91 percent support background checks at gun shows; 82 percent favour making illegal gun sales a federal crime; and 57 percent want an assault weapon ban – yet American gun reform could fail again.
Here are five reasons why:
1. Obama's lack of friends in Congress. Republicans have little wish to comply with Barack Obama's gun control agenda, and many resent the way he has attempted to moralise on the issue. Plenty of Democrats also see Obama as aloof. This is why Obama has had to entrust Joe Biden – a man with 36 years of Senate experience and friends in both parties – to take charge of gun control.
Obama's terrible relations with Republicans are compounded by intense gerrymandering from both parties. This minimises the number of competitive congressional districts and means House Republicans are more concerned with a primary challenge than losing to a Democrat.
2. America's other problems. Obama wanted to make gun control a key issue of his second term. But America's seemingly non-stop series of political crises – the fiscal cliff, the sequester et al – mean that it is hard enough just managing day-to-day problems. There are only so many hours in a day.
3. The complexities of the American legislative system. This isn't only the result of divided government: the labyrinth of sub-committees is hard enough to navigate when one party controls the presidency and both Houses. When the vote on gun reform comes, it will be almost four months after Sandy Hook. A quicker vote might have increased the pressure on Congress to vote for the measures.
4. The National Rifle Association is easily mocked, but it retains real power in America. After Congress voted in favour of an assaults weapon ban in 1994, the NRA targeted 24 Congressmen in that year's election: 19 were defeated. Perhaps it's no wonder Congress isn't enthusiastic about the legislation being re-enacted this time: even the Democrat Senate Majority leader Harry Reid is opposed.
5. Democrat Senators are scared. In the 2014 midterms, eight Democratic Senators who gained seats in 2008, on an anti-Bush ticket of Obama-mania, will face re-election. People like Mark Begich (Senator in normally safe Alaska) and Kay Hagan (defending her North Carolina seat) know that supporting gun control will probably lower their chances of re-election. The NRA recently took out a full-page ad urging locals to tell Hagan to oppose gun control laws – a warning to her, and other Democrats in purple states, on what they can expect if they vote for increased gun control.
Source and Comments: One hundred days after Sandy Hook, five reasons why US gun control will fail – Telegraph Blogs
Tim Wigmore is a freelance journalist, and has written for Coffee House, The New Statesman, The Independent and Cricinfo. He blogs mainly on British and American politics and cricket, and tweets @Timwig
One hundred days after Sandy Hook, five reasons why US gun control will fail
It's now more than 100 days since the Sandy Hook shooting at an elementary school in Newton, Connecticut. The families of the victims have argued passionately for increased gun control, which has more support among the American public than for decades. Yet US gun laws may barely be changed by Sandy Hook at all. Last week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid put a series of gun-related bills onto the legislative calendar, which will be addressed after Congress's two-week Easter break. It is on these that prospects for gun control rest – and they're not very good.
Already, it is certain that an assaults weapon ban will not pass, with Reid saying that fewer than 40 Senators supported it. The debate has now moved onto a universal background check system, stricter federal laws on gun trafficking and provisions to improve school safety.
The most important of these measures – a universal background check system – may well fail too. Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer and Republican Senator Tom Coburn are negotiating a deal on it, and agree on the merits of a background check. The problem is that Coburn refuses to accept a system of comprehensive record keeping. Instead, he proposes an expensive system of federal agents conducting stings to ensure that gun sellers are conducting background checks. If the Democrats reject this, the measure could collapse completely.
So gun reformers may not succeed in changing gun laws post-Sandy Hook. That's despite unrelenting pressure from campaigners, including from Slate's gun death tracker (3,000 gun deaths since Newtown, and counting). Support for reform is at historically high levels – 91 percent support background checks at gun shows; 82 percent favour making illegal gun sales a federal crime; and 57 percent want an assault weapon ban – yet American gun reform could fail again.
Here are five reasons why:
1. Obama's lack of friends in Congress. Republicans have little wish to comply with Barack Obama's gun control agenda, and many resent the way he has attempted to moralise on the issue. Plenty of Democrats also see Obama as aloof. This is why Obama has had to entrust Joe Biden – a man with 36 years of Senate experience and friends in both parties – to take charge of gun control.
Obama's terrible relations with Republicans are compounded by intense gerrymandering from both parties. This minimises the number of competitive congressional districts and means House Republicans are more concerned with a primary challenge than losing to a Democrat.
2. America's other problems. Obama wanted to make gun control a key issue of his second term. But America's seemingly non-stop series of political crises – the fiscal cliff, the sequester et al – mean that it is hard enough just managing day-to-day problems. There are only so many hours in a day.
3. The complexities of the American legislative system. This isn't only the result of divided government: the labyrinth of sub-committees is hard enough to navigate when one party controls the presidency and both Houses. When the vote on gun reform comes, it will be almost four months after Sandy Hook. A quicker vote might have increased the pressure on Congress to vote for the measures.
4. The National Rifle Association is easily mocked, but it retains real power in America. After Congress voted in favour of an assaults weapon ban in 1994, the NRA targeted 24 Congressmen in that year's election: 19 were defeated. Perhaps it's no wonder Congress isn't enthusiastic about the legislation being re-enacted this time: even the Democrat Senate Majority leader Harry Reid is opposed.
5. Democrat Senators are scared. In the 2014 midterms, eight Democratic Senators who gained seats in 2008, on an anti-Bush ticket of Obama-mania, will face re-election. People like Mark Begich (Senator in normally safe Alaska) and Kay Hagan (defending her North Carolina seat) know that supporting gun control will probably lower their chances of re-election. The NRA recently took out a full-page ad urging locals to tell Hagan to oppose gun control laws – a warning to her, and other Democrats in purple states, on what they can expect if they vote for increased gun control.
Source and Comments: One hundred days after Sandy Hook, five reasons why US gun control will fail – Telegraph Blogs
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