Sure, but the graphic is still off by a lot. It assumes no launch of JF-17s detected, JF-17s staying undetected throughout flight, no Indian AWACS, no other Indian vessels, and perfect lock on vessel before and after missile launch. It also gives a very low estimate of intercept probability for barak-8, disregards the fact that there are 4 VLS for barack 8, so as far as I know they can be launched much faster than 1 per 4 second.
Also, C802 is not a sea skimming missile - Detection will be much earlier. Further, range of a missile reduces rapidly with altitude, so if it is launched lower, the aircraft have to be much closer. Let us assume C802A, the sea skimming version.
Let us play their game by their rules. Still, just using basic maths, detection range will be 30km for target skimming at 5m height. Meaning time for 25 launches of barak 8 at their slow rate of 1 per 4 second (which seems arbitrary, I dont see any such data online. IMO it will be faster).
I would also like to see where they took 75% POI from, again, not "open source". Barak 8 goes near hypersonic after second phase kicks in, it should leave little time for subsonic missile to evade.
Also, against subsonic missiles CIWS will be much more effective than just taking down a single target, when each has around 18-19 seconds of engagement time.
We have, till now, not considered soft kill or countermeasures.
However, if the effort is to show that a mass of missiles can break through an air defence cover, they are not wrong. Yes, the number is disputed, and I would say around 45-50 missiles would be needed. That would require two squadrons of JF-17 for anti ship role alone, flying low to avoid detection. Sitting ducks if IAF can detect the mass of jets taking off or flying around, and scramble a flight of su 30s. At those low altitudes, over plain sea, they wont be dodging anything.
. Porky strategies are based upon random numbers.
