Estimation of Indian Nuclear Arsenal.- Present and Future

[CCP]

@CCP, life is about compromises. You are correct theoretically that a weapon has to be tested thoroughly. However nuclear weapons fall into a different category.

India wasted its last chance does not means "nuclear weapons fall into a different category".

China,US and Ru tested our nuclear weapons thoroughly.

India has decided to build warheads based on refined designs in the absence of actual testing. India is confident about its ability. You can call it a risk but that is your view.

You or Modi? Who the one "confident about its ability"?

Israel is rumoured to have more than 100 warheads. How much testing Israel has done??

Everyone knows where those warhead come from.

India's space vehicles reached moon and Mars on first try. So the situation with atom bomb is not as bad as it sounds.

India have to import rifles and bullets , so the situation is good.

 

[sgarg]

Yeah, still importing everything.

Please stay on the topic. India can build everything and will certainly. You see India through a Chinese lens which is faulty. China profited from war essentially (war between USSR and West) which resulted in very quick economic development. India has been on the opposite side of geopolitical development. There are several other factors.

However I can assure you that India is no pushover. Import or not, you will not find the going easy.

India imported military goods worth 6 billion last year. India might have made domestically close to double of this amount in the same year. The import situation is hyped up which you take up due to your ignorance.

Your arguments are based on oft repeated lies or half-truths about India. It becomes tiring after a while debating with an ignorant person.

 

[sgarg]

India have to import rifles and bullets , so the situation is good.

So. No country makes everything. China also imports a lot of things. Should I provide you a list of those.

 

[CCP]

So. No country makes everything. China also imports a lot of things. Should I provide you a list of those.

Do worry about China , everyone on the earth have seen Chinese Nuclear tests.

 

[CCP]

Please stay on the topic. India can build everything and will certainly. You see India through a Chinese lens which is faulty. China profited from war essentially (war between USSR and West) which resulted in very quick economic development. India has been on the opposite side of geopolitical development. There are several other factors.

Why China can profited from war and India can not?

India imported military goods worth 6 billion last year. India might have made domestically close to double of this amount in the same year. The import situation is hyped up which you take up due to your ignorance.

No, we can see you imported more year by year.

Your arguments are based on oft repeated lies or half-truths about India. It becomes tiring after a while debating with an ignorant person.

What is full truth? It becomes tiring after a while debating with an person in denial model.

 

[sgarg]

Do worry about China , everyone on the earth have seen Chinese Nuclear tests.

Have you seen "Chinese nuclear tests"?? Have I seen Chinese nuclear tests?? How many tests China conducted? How many US conducted? Why China tests so few compared to USA??

 

[sgarg]

Why China can profited from war and India can not?
No, we can see you imported more year by year.
What is full truth? It becomes tiring after a while debating with an person in denial model.

Yes India will import more in the short term. I do see imports going up as India modernises its military.

I AM NOT in denial mode. You are stubborn and ignorant.

 

[CCP]

Have you seen "Chinese nuclear tests"?? Have I seen Chinese nuclear tests?? How many tests China conducted? How many US conducted? Why China tests so few compared to USA??

List of nuclear weapons tests of China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

US is the first country conducted nuclear test, so they has to test everything hence more tests conducted by them.

From the data on that link you can see both China and US finished all 3 generations nuclear tests.

 

[sgarg]

List of nuclear weapons tests of China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

US is the first country conducted nuclear test, so they has to test everything hence more tests conducted by them.

From the data on that link you can see both China and US finished all 3 generations nuclear tests.

You still do not get the point. Indian scientists are comfortable building nuclear warheads with actual test data they have. Period.

The missiles built reflect the warheads that are designed to be mounted on the missiles.

I do not care about your "three generations" of nuclear tests. India has leapt ahead in many technology areas. Nuclear is one of these technology area.

India has always been ambi-valent about nuclear weapons. The internal discussion about having or not having nuclear weapons has been quite strong. Many people (me included) oppose the possession of nuclear weapons. Indiscriminate weapons do not fit with our culture and our value system.

It is not possible to have a specific discussion on India's nuclear weapons. You can study the public material which is mostly "guesswork". India has NOT MADE PUBLIC either its nuclear posture, or its inventory.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

If you read the link , you should find:

"That's nothing new. The United States, France and other nuclear countries have long used computers to simulate the action of nuclear weapons, feeding in data obtained from actual bomb tests.
The United States, which has conducted more than 1,000 nuclear weapons tests since World War II, now uses its data in supercomputers that process more than a trillion operations a second -- powerful enough to simulate how different components of a nuclear weapon will behave."

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So, you need at least success once before you able to simulate.
BTW, even US having problem on that kind of simulation.

USA has many different missiles and many different yields. If your numbers are limited
You do not need to test the same missile with same yield a thousand times. In 1998
A neutron bomb has also been reported to have been tested successfully.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

India Built Supercomputers Using Legal Parts - Chicago Tribune

WASHINGTON — When India carried out its recent nuclear tests, the blasts were monitored by Indian supercomputers, the type of machine that the United States didn't want India to have.

 

[power_monger]

Do it then.

Frankly speaking,I agree with your view that India has to test its nuclear weapons for reliability.Saying so,there are many reports which reports both sides of the story of nuclear test by India in 1998.Wiki is never a reliable source.Anyone can edit wikipedia providing some press report. Until there is concrete info all these discussion go no way round with no one proving other one wrong.I would say Give this thread a break.

 

[AbhishekDas]

India is estimated to posses 100-110 nuclear warheads today, but with the gradual increase of India's Missile arsenal and their numbers with possible MiRV warheads, India's nuclear warhead's number will also increase gradually. It is estimated that India may have around 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 and another 1,000 warheads in reserve, that means a total of 2,000 warheads, while at the same time China is expected to have 2,000 active nuclear warheads and 1,500 reserve warheads, a total of 3,500 warheads, while Pakistan may have around 300 Active Nuclear warheads and around 400 more in reserve, a total of 700 warheads. India and China both will have a good number of ICBM's, MRBM's, SRBM's, SLBM's, SLCM's, CM's, SCM's, HCM's etc with India having Surya-2 missile with almost 20,000 km range and China with DongFeng-41A with 18,000 KM & Pakistan may have large number of MRBM's, SRBM's, SLCM's, CM's, SCM's, HCM's etc with highest Ghaznabi-3 missile with almost 5,500 km range.....!!

 

[warrior monk]

India has far more warheads than it claims . Our arsenal is much bigger than Pakistan's .

 

[warrior monk]

India has already increased it pace of producing fissile material , the world thinks that India is producing Weapons Grade plutonium ( Pu 239) only at CIRUS and DHRUVA 1 then it is at fault.This is the reason the world thinks India has only 110 warheads they don't seem to factor in the 16 PHWRWhich India has though now only 8 are currently not on safeguards rest are on safeguards.
India's weapons grade plutonium comes from the 40 megawatt thermal (MWt) CIRUS and 100 MWt Dhruva reactors. Assuming that the reactors operate at full power when they are available allows an upperbound estimate of plutonium production. At full power and an availability factor of 70 percent, each year CIRUS would produce about 9.2 kg of weapons grade plutonium, and Dhruva would produce about 23 kg of weapons grade plutonium.
The uranium available for the unsafeguarded power and weapons grade plutonium production reactors and the enrichment program increases to 450-500 tons/year. This would yield a uranium surplus of 75-125 tons a year.

The official estimate of India's natural uranium reserves provided by the Indian
Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) stands at 120000 tonnes of uranium with possibility for more reserves.
Possible future arsenal of India-- if among the 8 PHWR all are used to generate Weapons grade plutonium using only 1/3 rd core or ¼ th core were allocated to producing materials for bomb-making at capacity factors of 0.73 and 0.79 and at discharge burnup equivalents of 1,000
and 665 MWD/MTU respectively would yield around 590 kgs to 650 kgs of weapons grade plutonium per year plus 130 kgs of weapons grade plutonium per year from one prototype fast breeder reactor in their radial and axial blankets ( we are building more fast breeder reactors) , plus Dhruva 1 generates 23 kgs of weapons grade plutonium per year .
Combined we will generate roughly around 790 kgs of weapons grade plutonium at lowest value with only ¼ th core generating weapons in 10 years time we can reasonably produce 7.9 tonnes of weapons grade plutonium at the minimum rate which is good for 1660 to 1710 warheads plus the 110 warheads we already have
so total warheads with India by 2025 will be around 1800 warheads with atleast with 650 to 750 warheads in triad formation and the rest in reserves.
The amount of Uranium reserves we have even if we use only half of it for our weapons program we will be able to generate 26 tonnes of weapons grade plutonium in 30 years enough for 6000 warheads atleast .
The question is not of warheads we can have one of the largest arsenal in the world but the delivery platform which is currently lacking.

 

[Adioz]

Can it be argued that Agni VI ICBM will see the last major range increase in the development of the Agni missile family? I believe further efforts would and should focus on making warhead interception impossible. Another area of further development is an SLBM version with 10000km range.
However, greater effort must be expended to create a better multi layered ballistic missile defence shield that cannot fall easily to saturation by MIRVs.

 

[I_PLAY_BAD]

Lastly I heard some joker from Pakistan Defense Forum ranting India only has 100 warheads with 20 KT yield and Pakistan has 160 warheads with higher yield. So Pakistan would destroy India within a matter of seconds and ended that sentence with Insha allah !!!

 

[rock127]

Lastly I heard some joker from Pakistan Defense Forum ranting India only has 100 warheads with 20 KT yield and Pakistan has 160 warheads with higher yield. So Pakistan would destroy India within a matter of seconds and ended that sentence with Insha allah !!!

Pakis know they are no match with India so they have to spread lies about their strength.

Their Tiger Niazi turned out to be a Coward Mouse when Pakis surrendered their ass to India.

Below is their situation in 2 examples... famous cat-tiger mirror and Porcupine fish which fills air to appear big.

 

[Rowdy]

Lastly I heard some joker from Pakistan Defense Forum ranting India only has 100 warheads with 20 KT yield and Pakistan has 160 warheads with higher yield. So Pakistan would destroy India within a matter of seconds and ended that sentence with Insha allah !!!

One Pak TV show:
If we nuke India we kill 1220 million and if they nuke us they kill 220million. So we will win Nuke war.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Without going into a numbers game two hints exist to give an idea of India nuclear arsenal

Firstly check Indian fissile material reserves

Second India has completed the nuclear triad only p5 nations
Have this capability. To have a completed nuclear triad you need a large nuclear arsenal and mature nuclear program.